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House Prices Aug 2020


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15 hours ago, spygirl said:

It's more 15k to 35k.

A few posters on this thread are making the gormless error/wishful thinking that I see daily around me, in terms of housing.

Selling your house is becoming a lottery.

 

Average person is on an average salary. That isn't a lot, in terms of average house prices. And 60% of the working will earn that average or less.

The magic era of 2000- 2008 is long gone. Net mortgage lending is shrinking. Theres prob more people paying off mortgages than fabs.

BoE is sticking to MMR.

Tax credits has destroyed a generation who might have worked. You will not get a mortgage is 30%+ of your income is bennies.

I'd love to see mortgage lending v probate by postcode. The numbers are going to be fun.

 

I was probably being conservation about the wage bracket, but saying that I have seen people(usually on their own) where life on £50,000 ish can be a struggle.

More and more I am seeing decent people who have put in to society saying f*** it and pack the stressful low paying essential job in and  play the system, sometimes that decision is made for them after they have hit adversity  or even after becoming ill after being asked for too much from a job that gives very little 

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On 04/09/2020 at 06:17, spygirl said:

I cant speak for lift engineers - I dont know any. So, even if they are on big money - which I doubt - theres not many of them.

AS far as plumbers, they pay is total bullshit. You can only earn that much beign on call 247 in London.

Average plumber earns sub 40k.

Its all on boiler installs and emergency call outs for plumbers.. they charge 4k plus for a £900 boiler fitting 

Anything with the word emergency and its big bucks.. 

Try getting your drain unblocked.. it re defines the real meaning of getting your man hole rodded  

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 05/09/2020 at 18:04, spygirl said:

It's more 15k to 35k.

A few posters on this thread are making the gormless error/wishful thinking that I see daily around me, in terms of housing.

Selling your house is becoming a lottery.

 

Average person is on an average salary. That isn't a lot, in terms of average house prices. And 60% of the working will earn that average or less.

The magic era of 2000- 2008 is long gone. Net mortgage lending is shrinking. Theres prob more people paying off mortgages than fabs.

BoE is sticking to MMR.

Tax credits has destroyed a generation who might have worked. You will not get a mortgage is 30%+ of your income is bennies.

I'd love to see mortgage lending v probate by postcode. The numbers are going to be fun.

 

Not to worry, the councils on the case.

More affordable homes could be on way for people of Scarborough borough

Scarborough Council has launched a consultation exercise to try to meet its aim to deliver more affordable homes across the borough.

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/news/people/more-affordable-homes-could-be-way-people-scarborough-borough-2971693

Cllr Carl Maw, Scarborough Council Cabinet Member for Stronger Communities and Housing, said: “The market engagement exercise is a key milestone in the first phase of this hugely important project to build more high-quality housing that is affordable for our residents.

"It gives us an opportunity to better understand the current market and gives the market the chance to understand our requirements too.”

I just dont understand what the cretin is trying to say.

They let slip a few numbers, which ought to give them their answer:

Nearly 50,000 people are employed in the borough but 18,000 of these earn below the UK Living Wage.

Workers in the borough earn on average £507 per week, compared to £574 per week for workers across the York, North Yorkshire and East Riding areas, as well as the Great Britain average wage of £587 per week.

UK living wage is ~9.50

Scarborough Borough is ~108k,  so only 50% are in employment. And of those, only ~30k earn more than a very very low income.

This makes it harder for the residents of the borough to get on the housing ladder.

Figures show that at least 40% of the employed clients of Scarborough Citizens’ Advice claim in-work benefits.

So ... of those 50k, 20k are basically on TCs. Anyone claiming in work benefits is not going to get a mortgage.

Theres no such thing as a housing ladder without employment and wage inflation. A quick look at prices show no rise since 2004.

That gives a rough size of the local population that earn enough to get a mortgage as ~30k. And its not going to big income:

https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/15514178.scarborough-salaries-lowest-in-uk/

The average salary in Scarborough is £19,925, the lowest in the country and significantly down on the wider British average of £28,442.

Using rough arsed distribution, less than 10% of employed (5k) will be earning 40k+

 

The solution to this made up problem is people earn more or houses sell for a lot less. 

Assuming they get their way, they will have more affordable housing in Scabby - more n more houses will reduce prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Theres no such thing as a housing ladder without employment and wage inflation. A quick look at prices show no rise since 2004.

So more housing equals more Scabbies in ScarBro.

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On 06/09/2020 at 18:51, spygirl said:

Love the deranged comment from the broker/EA

Quote
Kevin Heazel 4th September 2020 at 2:41 pm

“…It will also apply to submitted cases that are yet to receive an offer..”???!!! ISN’T THAT THE HEADLINE??
Barclays just pulled their 4.5 – 5.5 x income multiples on all cases in pipeline not offered yet…..??!! Impacting about 5 of our clients re their ability to purchase their homes….people in chains/ sol’s fees spent etc – have not seen anything like this in past 10 yrs..??!
How is this TCF?? HOW IS THIS ALLOWED – SHOULD BE ILLEGAL – WILL BARCLAYS REFUND CLIENTS/CHAINS FOR MONEY WASTED??
THIS IS SICKENING…HOW CAN WE BE EXPECTED TO BE PROFESSIONALS WHEN THIS TYPE OF BEHAVIOUR IS ACCEPTABLE BY FCA/PRA??!!
This is down to mis-management of lending ratio’s by the lender under PRA guidance – why should clients be made to suffer??
HONOUR THE TCF PRINCIPLES & PAY FINES IMPOSED BY PRA FOR ANY MIS-MANAGEMENT – DO NOT PULL THE RUG FROM UNDER PROFESSIONAL BROKERS & THEREFORE CAUSE PANIC IN OUR SECTOR??

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Underwhelmed said:

Love the deranged comment from the broker/EA

 

Yeah.

If he was a professional Im  sure hed have read the small print in MIP.

Youve not got a mortgage til youve got the cash.

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

So the area that I know very well in the SE of the UK - one of my mates just went to sell his place; got an offer within a week from another family in the street who want a place for their kids.  He'll get asking, no estate agent involved.

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3 hours ago, wherebee said:

So the area that I know very well in the SE of the UK - one of my mates just went to sell his place; got an offer within a week from another family in the street who want a place for their kids.  He'll get asking, no estate agent involved.

It depends if they need a mortgage.

We are no longer 2006. or even 2015.

I can imagine the response to a bank when the blokes goes in and says I want to borrow 400k for a house for my kid to live.

Application will go in the bin. Seriously.

 

 

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59 minutes ago, spygirl said:

It depends if they need a mortgage.

We are no longer 2006. or even 2015.

I can imagine the response to a bank when the blokes goes in and says I want to borrow 400k for a house for my kid to live.

Application will go in the bin. Seriously.

 

 

naw, they will be cash buyers.  generational wealth transfer.

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Better buy them while they're 'cheap'. Bozo wants to pump it up some more with a relaxation of affordability rules and low/no deposit requirements.

Boris Johnson plans to offer low deposits to turn Generation Rent into Generation Buy
 

Quote

 

Banks would no longer be required to quiz applicants in minute detail on their earnings and outgoings. 

By removing the “stress tests” banks could churn out 95 per cent loans to young people.

Under the proposal, the Government would take on some of the loan risk in the form of a state guarantee.

 

 

Party like it 2007. :Jumping:

 

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11 hours ago, BoSon said:

Better buy them while they're 'cheap'. Bozo wants to pump it up some more with a relaxation of affordability rules and low/no deposit requirements.

Boris Johnson plans to offer low deposits to turn Generation Rent into Generation Buy
 

 

Party like it 2007. :Jumping:

 

The next prop was expected. The stamp duty prop did as intended, it shifted sales sitting on the fence in the 300-500k region skewing the annual HPI statistic. We now should avoid a negative year on year which we hit in June (when it was announced)

Phew thanks Borris. That was a close one, pretty much millions unemployed and the economy fucked for a decade but at least it all didn’t effect the magic unicorn paper boomer wealth. Couldn’t have the over hedge self-congratulating chat with the neighbour about how clever and wealthy we all are if properties were losing value. 

I said on here multiple times that the last prop from the government will be actually buying houses for people. By making lending zero risk to the banks that’s essentially what they are doing when people go in negative equity regardless. All propped up by the PAYE taxpayer, ironically mostly the younger generation fucking themselves over of course.

Problem is Borris, because most the country will be on universal credit, they’re won’t be many young PAYE tax payers left to swallow the kool aid. Looks like your developer chums won’t be able to recoup all those losses on blocks of new build city flats in time for the 2021 CEO bonuses.

Edited by Sideysid
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4 hours ago, Sideysid said:

The next prop was expected. The stamp duty prop did as intended, it shifted sales sitting on the fence in the 300-500k region skewing the annual HPI statistic. We now should avoid a negative year on year which we hit in June (when it was announced)

Phew thanks Borris. That was a close one, pretty much millions unemployed and the economy fucked for a decade but at least it all didn’t effect the magic unicorn paper boomer wealth. Couldn’t have the over hedge self-congratulating chat with the neighbour about how clever and wealthy we all are if properties were losing value. 

I said on here multiple times that the last prop from the government will be actually buying houses for people. By making lending zero risk to the banks that’s essentially what they are doing when people go in negative equity regardless. All propped up by the PAYE taxpayer, ironically mostly the younger generation fucking themselves over of course.

Problem is Borris, because most the country will be on universal credit, they’re won’t be many young PAYE tax payers left to swallow the kool aid. Looks like your developer chums won’t be able to recoup all those losses on blocks of new build city flats in time for the 2021 CEO bonuses.

Id put this as waffle.

The Treasury is going kibosh this.

HTB puts UKGOV neck on line too much already with HTB.

Someone in the Treasury is planning for interest rate to turn a bit, sooner rather than later.

 

 

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10 hours ago, Sideysid said:

negative equity

No such thing anymore. Brownstuff did away with boom and bust, the miracle economy continues. xD

With sterling doomed eventually this could be part of a master plan to get everyone into rented by another name, with the landlords being those that the BoE sell off the debt to in the form of the hard assets. So they end up with the properties while the taxpayer settles for worthless currency and no income to pay off their debt. i.e. rent forever while under the pretence of paying off a mortgage. Can't pay they won't take it away, just keep you on the never never. :ph34r:

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On 07/10/2020 at 09:06, haroldshand said:

On a slightly off topic note I am still waiting for the inevitable "The UK housing is market intrinsically racist" bollox that is sure to come

There won’t be historically at least. Council house millionaires is a phenomenon as a result of this one way boomer asset super cycle. Lots of right to buy council tenants in deprived city areas did very well by selling them off to the greater fool gentrification hipsters.

I know a woman personally who used the money selling her Brixton house for nearly a million and used it to build a shopping centre back in her home country. She got scammed out of most the money in construction costs that were nonexistent of course but that’s the way the world turns.

That cycle will never happen again.

Edited by Sideysid
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On 03/09/2020 at 13:49, No One said:

What do the members make of the supposed surge in house prices?

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again ....

’Crack-up Boom’

We are 20 years in to a ‘Crack up Boom’ .... which will continue to exponentially manifest itself over the next 10-15 years ......resulting in monetary collapse....

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On 06/10/2020 at 21:22, No One said:

I can't believe this cunt is preparing bubble 3.0, has anyone seen the build back better speech

Has the bubble 2.0 officially ended? Darn, I must have missed it!

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FYI - I was chatting to a young couple at the weekend here in Oz, friends of mine, who are about to buy their first place.  Both public sector, average pay, but very stable jobs (healthcare).  They are about as rock solid for income for the next few years as you can imagine.

I actually think they are making a good call in looking to buy now.  The blood is starting to be on the streets, and whilst they might buy at, say, 500k and the 'street value' drops to 450k or even 400k for a good family home in our town, once inflation kicks in that debt will be rapidly inflated away.

I would have been against buying into Australia for years given the massive house price bubble, but the latest fed budget has convinced me that the bastards really are going for inflation and printing on a national scale, as will the US and UK, and so it's back to when my parents bought a house for 35k in 1979 that was worth 1 million by the end of the 90's.  I remember seeing my dad's final year of mortgage payments and it actually made me laugh how little he had to pay each month.

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4 hours ago, wherebee said:

FYI - I was chatting to a young couple at the weekend here in Oz, friends of mine, who are about to buy their first place.  Both public sector, average pay, but very stable jobs (healthcare).  They are about as rock solid for income for the next few years as you can imagine.

I actually think they are making a good call in looking to buy now.  The blood is starting to be on the streets, and whilst they might buy at, say, 500k and the 'street value' drops to 450k or even 400k for a good family home in our town, once inflation kicks in that debt will be rapidly inflated away.

I would have been against buying into Australia for years given the massive house price bubble, but the latest fed budget has convinced me that the bastards really are going for inflation and printing on a national scale, as will the US and UK, and so it's back to when my parents bought a house for 35k in 1979 that was worth 1 million by the end of the 90's.  I remember seeing my dad's final year of mortgage payments and it actually made me laugh how little he had to pay each month.

The longer term cycle has to be taken into account. If your friends are in stable jobs, have got a big deposit then I would do exactly the same and fix for as long as possible (10 years, but they are being withdrawn certainly here in the UK)

Arguably Oz banks are geared on HPI bubble forever even more so than here and are more exposed to an economic shock in a downtown in the property market.

The wider implications is that the continued inflation of property would still have to be anchored to the average salary multiple to meet the banks lending criteria. It’s all ok with those with mortgage debt being inflated away, but it’s getting that mortgage in the beginning. The banks willingness to lend is key. 

Long term there is the issue with the younger generation in crippling student debt, competing salaries with the global market in WFH and ever increasingly automated jobs, high rents unable to save deposits for tiny flats and no hope of retirement because of unobtainable pensions. Even pushing up to 40 year plus mortgages will be unviable.

Native birth rates are already showing the result of this boomer led asset super cycle, as having one child if that at the 30-40 range. Increasingly the boomer generation will die off and the property market will have to revert to the mean as that’s the order of things. I personally think that economic shock is coming sooner rather than later.

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Fortuna Silver is up next, with a very solid Q3 production of 2.1moz silver and 13koz gold - a double-digit increase over Q1 2020 and YoY. Grades are also nicely up by both measures. Cash costs stable. Additionally, 18koz of gold has been placed on the leach pad at Lindero at 0.83g/t, while another 27koz at 0.52g/t have been stockpiled in expectation of higher gold prices. There only slight worry is that grades coming from Lindero are significantly below the budget, apparently due to  COVID restrictions which limit access to high-grade ore. Sounds like the same story as with First Majestic yesterday, so we might see it becoming a general theme in the industry.

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