Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Agent ZigZag]

The new world order, build back better it appears applies only to us living in the west a roll reversal of the old iron curtain. If the little man wants to trade with the world well you can't because it breaks the new rules that are becoming enforced upon us. The gross fiscal mismanagement by all western governments is very clear and they are telling me loud and clear that they plan to default through inflation and taxation and possibly world war. We could be in for a very long ride as it took 80 odd years for the old communist USSR to collapse.

[ThoughtCriminal]

 The West is well on the way to irrelevance.

[Majorpain]

I'm not sure Burry is (completely) right on this one, US consumers are not as strong as they used to be with end of stimulus, rate hikes and general inflation.

Quote

 

The final index reading of 50 in the monthly Surveys of Consumers was just below the preliminary reading of 50.2 released two weeks ago. The final June index -- a 14.4% drop since May -- represents the lowest recorded level since the university started collecting consumer sentiment data in November 1952.

Its either stores are carrying way too much inventory and/or sales are way down, although I don't want to bet against Burry after the last guys were carried out in a financial coffin!  

[feed]

This is how behind the curve they are.  

https://www.reuters.com/world/macron-tells-biden-that-uea-saudi-can-barely-raise-oil-output-2022-06-27/

"I had a call with MbZ," Macron was heard telling U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G7 summit.

"He told me two things. I'm at a maximum, maximum (production capacity). This is what he claims."

"And then he said (the) Saudis can increase by 150 (thousands barrels per day). Maybe a little bit more, but they don't have huge capacities before six months' time," Macron said.

[Alifelessbinary]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 The West is well on the way to irrelevance.

Seeing as this is a thread about Macro investing. Are you now long BRICS(I)? For me I find their share performance continually underwhelming, although I have made some cash dipping in and out of the Blackrock Latin America Trust

The West has clearly lost it’s way, however I still focused on understanding the remaining strength of it’s institutions. They are certainly wobbling and if they fail we’re fucked, I just don’t agree that BRICS at the current time provides a particularly robust investment case.

While having huge natural wealth is preferable, without the capital investment to mine the wealth it has limited benefit.

We are certainly going through a major inflection point in the UK. The fact that Boris wants to keep wages low but benefits high is one step closer to civil unrest.

All I truly care about is how I protect myself against inflation and a strategy to protect my family from rising uncertainty. Politicians are always going to be cunts, I just need to avoid the worst of their mandates and bullshit.

[Axeman123]

8 minutes ago, feed said:

This is how behind the curve they are...

At least a year behind this thread!

[Errol]

 

[Barnsey]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv come to the conclusion though,from the evidence Sunak is as clueless as Boris,or both simple only care about their image.Doing more damage than Brown is something i thought id never see.He is like Ethelred handing out Danegeld to the bennies and retired public sector,draining the rest of the population,hoping they go away,but the nest year they always return and want more,and when there is no more,state collapse.

The problem of course is that there are significant sticky side effects when the gap between working and doing nothing gets rapidly smaller. Let's not forget much younger folks have been more resourceful with much less than my generation and older, in large part thanks to low cost/free tech and changing attitudes to 'things'. Partly through necessity post GFC, partly brainwashing, and partly cultural shift.

I'd imagine this movement will be on its way across the pond very soon if not already here.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/27/tiktok-generations-anti-work-movement-dangerous-unrealistic/

What started as a fringe online revolution is now turning mainstream, with membership on Reddit’s r/antiwork group (hailing “unemployment for all, not just the rich!”) exploding since 2020 and fast gathering momentum. The community now has over 2m subscribers and is one of the most active groups on the site. “My employer has been undervaluing me for years and I finally got to see them sweat after putting my resignation in,” read a post last week. “My job is OK but I hate working. I hate work culture,” states another just before it. “Not giving a f---  is liberating,” read a third. 

It is not just Reddit. Users of social media site TikTok have been posting videos of them quitting their jobs in so-called ‘Quit-Toks’ while Goldman Sachs last year said the anti-work trend is a “long-run risk” to labour force participation. 

[Lightscribe]

33 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

The problem of course is that there are significant sticky side effects when the gap between working and doing nothing gets rapidly smaller. Let's not forget much younger folks have been more resourceful with much less than my generation and older, in large part thanks to low cost/free tech and changing attitudes to 'things'. Partly through necessity post GFC, partly brainwashing, and partly cultural shift.

I'd imagine this movement will be on its way across the pond very soon if not already here.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/27/tiktok-generations-anti-work-movement-dangerous-unrealistic/

What started as a fringe online revolution is now turning mainstream, with membership on Reddit’s r/antiwork group (hailing “unemployment for all, not just the rich!”) exploding since 2020 and fast gathering momentum. The community now has over 2m subscribers and is one of the most active groups on the site. “My employer has been undervaluing me for years and I finally got to see them sweat after putting my resignation in,” read a post last week. “My job is OK but I hate working. I hate work culture,” states another just before it. “Not giving a f---  is liberating,” read a third. 

It is not just Reddit. Users of social media site TikTok have been posting videos of them quitting their jobs in so-called ‘Quit-Toks’ while Goldman Sachs last year said the anti-work trend is a “long-run risk” to labour force participation. 

Almost like locking people down for a couple of years and paying them to do nothing had a massive psychological effect. Obviously they didn’t see that coming though….. 

[snaga]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He doesn't tweet much, but he never misses.

has there ever been a deflation to reverse inflation?

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

 

That's a huge miss! Not only that but a huge miss in a completely different trend direction to the expected.

How long can J Powell continue to claim a strong economy?

[Loki]

25 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

That's a huge miss! Not only that but a huge miss in a completely different trend direction to the expected.

How long can J Powell continue to claim a strong economy?

Fed Pivot When? 

[feed]

36 minutes ago, Loki said:

Fed Pivot When? 

Early August. 

FOMC 

July26-27
September20-21
November1-2

Nov 8 midterms, 

[sancho panza]

random post here as Ive not caught up with thread yet but been buying a more goldies today.
 

Some reasonable vcalue in the goldies.Updfated coma scores recently to adjsut for some price changes since last done.

The stand out here for me today is Newcrest.Anything ovr 17 nromally a possible buy for us on a 'spray n pray' basis

We've gone from no NCM to it being our second biggest PM position in a week.Dyor natch

10% off it's covid low

https://www.fool.com.au/2022/06/27/why-evolution-newcrest-oz-minerals-and-zip-shares-are-dropping-today/

Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM)

The Newcrest share price is down 5% to $21.90 despite there being no news out of the gold miner. It’s possible that Evolution’s update has hit sentiment in the industry hard. In addition, improving risk sentiment appears to have led to investors switching out of safe haven assets and back into risk assets. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index is down 6.8% this afternoon.

Company	Share price	Date	Chart	Inc	BS	CF	Sector	SCS
Agnico-dec	USD 59.66	16/03/22	1	2	4	2	4	13
Alamos-dec	USD 7.13	16/03/22	3	1	5	1	4	14
Anglogold-dec	USD 15.94	20/06/22	4	4	3	2	4	17
B2Gold-dec	USD 3.64	20/06/22	3	4	5	4	4	20
Barrick	USD 19.55	20/06/22	4	4	3	3	4	18
Buenaven-dec	USD 7.38	20/06/22	4	1	4	1	4	14
Centamin-dec	GBP 0.81	20/06/22	4	4	5	3	4	20
Centerra-dec	CAD 9.08	20/06/22	3	1	5	4	4	17
Eldorado-dec	USD 7.33	20/06/22	5	1	5	3	4	18
FNV-dec	CAD 195	16/03/22	1	2	5	2	4	14
Freeport	USD 43.02	21/02/22	2	3	2	4	4	15
Fresnillo-dec	GBP 7.89	20/06/22	4	3	4	3	4	18
Gold fields	USD 13.08	21/02/22	2	4	4	2	4	16
Gold resourc-dece	USD 2.14	16/03/22	4	2	5	4	4	19
Harmony-jun	USD 3.36	20/06/22	4	5	4	5	4	22
Hochschild-dec	GBP 1.25	11/05/22	5	5	3	5	4	22
IAM gold-dec	USD 3.17	16/03/22	4	1	4	1	4	14
Kinross	USD 4.1	20/06/22	5	2	4	3	4	18
Kirkland-dec	USD 39.01	16/03/22	1	3	5	1	4	14
New gold-dec	USD 1.27	11/05/22	4	5	3	4	4	20
Newcrest-jun	USD16.39	15/06/22	4	4	5	4	4	21
Newmont-dec	USD 72.61	16/03/22	1	2	4	3	4	14
Oceana-dec	CAD 2.65	16/03/22	3	1	5	1	4	14
Osisko GR-dec	CAD 17.72	16/03/22	1	1	5	1	4	12
Pan African-jun	GBP 0.2075	21/02/22	2	5	4	4	4	19
PAAS-dec	USD 21	20/06/22	2	2	5	2	4	15
Petropavl-dec								0
Polymetal-dec								0
Royal Gold-Jun	USD121.07	21/02/22	1	2	5	2	4	14
Sandstorm-dec	USD 7.87	16/03/22	2	2	5	2	4	15
Sibanye-dec	USD 17.05	16/03/22	1	5	3	4	4	17
Wesdome-dec	CAD 14.79	16/03/22	1	2	5	2	4	14
Wheaton-dec	CAD 59.86	16/03/22	1	2	5	2	4	14
Yamana	USD 5.34	16/03/22	4	2	4	3	4	17

 

 

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[feed]

The nato meeting is going to be fun as well, when they figure out that they need to re militarise for a multipolar world at $100+ oil. 

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, snaga said:

has there ever been a deflation to reverse inflation?

I'm house prices... Several times 

[DurhamBorn]

Thread needs to think about the winners from what we knew all along, that oil demand is bigger than production.Looks certain we will see high prices for good,but also demand destruction.Very likely governments will have to cut fuel taxes for starters.Long supply chains will be even more of a liability.Incredible how cycles work,even reversing trends that most thought were forever.

The government hasnt a clue how bad things will get from their lunacy policies.If low paid workers cant afford to buy a cheap car and run it then much more likely they will just go on bennies.Lidl warehouse near me has a constant vacancy notice and they arent even remote.

Keep stocking up.

 

[desertorchid]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yep, penny has finally dropped with our idiot leaders. The myth of infinite oil supply is broken. Expect a slew of ludicrous policy mistakes coming hard at us like price caps, rationing etc. as they realise they can't print energy and they are three meals from a lampost.

 

That is quite bizarre. Almost as if Macron is seizing a moment to get a couple of points across. At a moment he knows he will likely embarrass himself. The sort of thing you do to a girl you fancy at school.  Either Biden is not available during official meeting time or he is so senile that whatever anyone says it just never seems to register.

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, desertorchid said:

That is quite bizarre. Almost as if Macron is seizing a moment to get a couple of points across. At a moment he knows he will likely embarrass himself. The sort of thing you do to a girl you fancy at school.  Either Biden is not available during official meeting time or he is so senile that whatever anyone says it just never seems to register.

Macron is a cuck with simp tendancies.  That clip just confirms it.

The sort of head of state the guillotine was invented for.

[wherebee]

excellent debate.  All but one of the panellists know the facts.  Look at the body language.  Europe is fucked.

You would NEVER see this sort of debate on UK TV.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Can't be overstated how badly the west have fucked up over Russia.

 

Causing themselves huge economic damage seems to be the least of it. They've scared numerous smaller but significant countries into deciding they'd rather not be bullied by them.

 

We'll see BRICS develop into a major alliance. One based on mutual interest, where you're not bullied with sanctions because you don't legalise trannies bumming your kid at school.

 

Iran and the Saudis are having discussions about normalising relations now, with China and Russia encouraging them in the background.

 

Biden is the perfect symbol for the West now.

[M S E Refugee]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Can't be overstated how badly the west have fucked up over Russia.

 

Causing themselves huge economic damage seems to be the least of it. They've scared numerous smaller but significant countries into deciding they'd rather not be bullied by them.

 

We'll see BRICS develop into a major alliance. One based on mutual interest, where you're not bullied with sanctions because you don't legalise trannies bumming your kid at school.

 

Iran and the Saudis are having discussions about normalising relations now, with China and Russia encouraging them in the background.

 

Biden is the perfect symbol for the West now.

The BRICS versus the West is reminiscent of Dosbods breakaway from the moribund HPC.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 hours ago, desertorchid said:

That is quite bizarre. Almost as if Macron is seizing a moment to get a couple of points across. At a moment he knows he will likely embarrass himself. The sort of thing you do to a girl you fancy at school.  Either Biden is not available during official meeting time or he is so senile that whatever anyone says it just never seems to register.

He is getting a message across publicly. He must know that the people he needs to reach are Biden's advisors not the potatus himself. This might be the best way of doing so - who knows what bureaucracy and Chinese whispers get in the way of formal channels. That he needs to do this shows how bad things are. He will be open carrying meeting notes in front of press photographers next.

I thought it interesting that he reckons there will be more supply in six months.

Of course Macron could be panicking that the power will go out in France this winter.

[geordie_lurch]

Another thing we will all be paying for soon it seems...

Families could be PAID to turn their lights off! National Grid plans to pay homes £6 for each kilowatt-hour they avoid using at peak times to avoid blackouts this winter via Daily Mail here and emphasis below mine:

"The proposals could see households paid up to £6 for each kilowatt-hour they avoid using at peak times, The Times said. That compares with the 28.34p homes pay per kilowatt-hour, enough to power a 100 watt lightbulb for ten hours.

National Grid, which is looking to offer the scheme to millions of families, said: 'Demand shifting has the potential to save consumers money and reduce carbon emissions.'

Families are struggling with energy bills that have jumped by 54 per cent (an average of £693) this year. 

They are set to jump a further £800, to an average of £2,800 a year, when energy regulator Ofgem raises the price cap in October.

National Grid ESO trialled the proposals with customers this year and is now looking to offer the scheme to millions of households. 

It is believed to have written to suppliers last week asking them to assess how much less energy their customers could be persuaded to use at peak times.

The cost of the scheme would be added onto energy bills but the National Grid is said to believe the additional charge would be less than the cost of paying power plants to increase supply."

No mention why this will be only offered to families and if this will only be for those already in receipt of benefits