Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[leonardratso]

ohoh starting to sound a bit like the dogecoin naysayers in these replies.

Im not knocking anyone really you do what you think is best for yourself weather it is or it isnt. There will be no bailout is really all i can add, as weve seen on the rusky stuff, its hard t say where that will end up, im not being negative here, hope is what keeps it alive and on going i suppose, best times for me were when i just said fuck it and left the market to do what it does and just got on with doing what i wanted to do. Its akin to my work pension, i have no control over that so its beholden to the vagauries of the market, not worth me stressing over it, it is what it is.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

An actually useful story from the BBC spelling out how much everyone is starting to feel this recession / depression: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61920559

People cut back on food shopping as price rises bite

Households are cutting back on food shopping as the rising cost of living bites into budgets.

Nearly half of adults surveyed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said they had bought less food in the past fortnight due to higher prices.

The price of food was also the most common reason for why those asked were seeing their monthly outgoings rising overall, the ONS said.

Supermarkets Asda and Tesco have said customers are cutting back on shopping.

The ONS said its feedback from supermarkets also suggested customers were spending less on their food shop because of the rising cost of living.

It found that sales in supermarkets dropped 1.5% in May, with a 2.2% fall in specialist shops such as butchers and bakers.

Retail sales overall fell by 0.5% in May

Prices overall are continuing to rise at their fastest rate for 40 years, with UK inflation at 9.1%, the highest level since March 1982.

Iv noticed between 12 and 5pm there is hardly anyone in Lidl.They reduce 30% about 12 and im able to get some very good stuff without the mass of sticker hunters you used to get.Buy at leisure.I suspect its due to transport costs.Im luck in i live within half a mile of all the supermarkets,but for many they have to travel a few miles and its likely they are avoiding the trips for a few items.I noticed the likes of Superdrug empty later on an afternoon,just staff.You get the feeling there are huge problems ahead for retail.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, BWW said:

Those numbers need the amount that households throw away adding in and yes I suspect it's the same households. [== DB's bennie neighbours .. both retired plod and shazza's]

My neighbour throws very little away,she gets massive bags delivered from Uber Eats every night.Mcdonalds usually,but all sorts of places.One of the coppers near me his wife came onto me once down the town years ago,i wish i had nailed her now ,though at the time the last thing i wanted was coppers on my case sniffing around  .Funny enough the other coppers sons wife came onto me as well and always gave me little yes you can waves when she drove past me.What a cad i was back then 

[belfastchild]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv noticed between 12 and 5pm there is hardly anyone in Lidl.They reduce 30% about 12 and im able to get some very good stuff without the mass of sticker hunters you used to get.Buy at leisure.I suspect its due to transport costs.Im luck in i live within half a mile of all the supermarkets,but for many they have to travel a few miles and its likely they are avoiding the trips for a few items.I noticed the likes of Superdrug empty later on an afternoon,just staff.You get the feeling there are huge problems ahead for retail.

I rarely visit the local tesco but noticed this big time the last time I was in. They used to have an area of the shop roped off like the queues for disney as it was previously a free for all when the reductions came out between pensioners and EE/immigrants. Last time I was in, no cordon, no queue, no people looking at the reductions.
I thought the same, its not all down to food bank donations and olio but more like most people need a car to drive there.

Lidl here did have a policy of siting most stores in/near poor estates so people could walk to them (they moved the one closest to me to a poorer area, right next to the dole office). If I want to buy their expensive middle aisle stuff before its gone I go to one of those or more recently one of the out of town ones where nobody is going to get the reductions as it now costs too much to drive.

Just got another email from a well known diy place reductions on outdoor lighting and paint...

Ordered small bits and pieces last week from china (fixings, led christmas lights etc). Havent done in a while as orders kept getting cancelled for out of stock. Just had the led christmas lights one cancelled. Bought some small screws to fix some chinese furniture and wanted ones to match. Screw heads just came off the first three as I screwed them in (by hand).

[Yadda yadda yadda]

15 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Get one of these bad boys too

 

Your misses will love hanging washing on it 

 

 

 

I've got the same model. Mine is outside though. Yours look a bit close to the ceiling for my liking.

[sancho panza]

15 hours ago, feed said:

Gromen. 

You'll need a stiff drink by the end of this one. 

 

 

Pivot by Fed by end Q3-caused by sovereign debt bubble bursting

fed doesn't have the defecit/debt/demogrpahics that Volcker did that enabled him to fight inflation.

Watched it twice,gets even better on second viewing.

[Democorruptcy]

49 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

I've lost almost 60% paper profits over the last month or so. We knew that the market would try to whipsaw us out, all the emotions that come with it.

PMs will run eventually. Probably faster and harder than we expect. With the Internet, sentiment is highly contagious in markets. But it cuts both ways.

Everything is getting decimated at the moment. Very few hiding places.

Schoolboy error.

When the portfolio has gone down, it should always be the drop as a percentage of the pot, then think dividends. The percentage of profits is a higher figure to upset yourself. You only do the percentage of profits calculation when it's going up.

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

I am happy to call someone a ‘she’ a ‘he’ and happy for all sorts of sexuality to be acknowledged. I even sometimes stop myself from laughing at fatties in electric scooters in Asda.

...
Ps….just read the comments, realised I have been ‘double woked’. DM uses this to push me further right.😉

Great story though, definitely shouldn’t be on the NHS.…😂 

To my mind you're drifting left and could do with a quick shove to the right 

Per-person-tailoring of pronouns? No chance, they're lucky if I remember their names. If it's one eccentric making a memorable request that's one thing, but the wokeists want us to remember multiple items per person (name, noun/pronoun, possessive pronoun).

The potential values are not limited to two genders either, e.g. zir, them etc.

Frankly it's not scalable and I (me, mine) will not do it.

 

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've been bullish on miners a while and I'm getting more bullish but the only thing that bothers me is fuel costs. Are investors sniffing out higher AISC? One reason I add a note of caution to the 2018 comparisons Sancho.

 @DurhamBorn

Its a fair point but let's take a look at the chart and surprisingly,oil and gold are relative synchroncity during that timeframe(It's the raltive value of gold under discussion so we're using the gold low Sept 2018.Surprised me when I jsut checked.Margin compression may be more subdued than I thought.

I follow the Luke Gromen school that gold is final payment and has been for 1000's of years.ref his earlier video psoted,really spells out how the fed will liekly pivot by end Q3 for a variety of reasons and he comes in line with @DurhamBorn thesis that govt will run inflation ahead of bond yields and leave the bond holders eating teh dog poo sandwich.this will deal with what LG outlines in terms of US tax receipts being unable to cover welfare/health/defence spending let alone other govt spendies.....

we know hsitorically from lyn aldens charts that gold does well during periods of negative real rates on bonds.On that matter I went on the st louis fed site jsut now and can't find the porice of gold on there.call me a conspriacy theorist but I sued to be able to do easy to run charts of copper/gold/silver/yields etc.Maybe I'm being dumb but it sure smells like rabbit warren stuff when the fed is taking gold as an option of their charts(I realsie I msut be doing something worng but if someone could confirm how to get it I'd be grateful)

so yes,I can see fuel prices hammering margins iniatially but I think once gold starts running here,the ramp will dwarf the increased costs.

dyor but w

[feed]

14 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Pivot by Fed by end Q3-caused by sovereign debt bubble bursting

fed doesn't have the defecit/debt/demogrpahics that Volcker did that enabled him to fight inflation.

Watched it twice,gets even better on second viewing.

Part 2 later.  Interesting that he touched on a theme that's been surfacing here. 

Are they just idiots or is it dogma?  

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

I've lost almost 60% paper profits over the last month or so. We knew that the market would try to whipsaw us out, all the emotions that come with it.

PMs will run eventually. Probably faster and harder than we expect. With the Internet, sentiment is highly contagious in markets. But it cuts both ways.

Everything is getting decimated at the moment. Very few hiding places.

There's an old investment adage about knowing why you buy a particular share. For every share in your portfolio, you ought to be able to say, "I own that because..."

Unless you're a short-term speculator and unless something really fundamental has unexpectedly changed, the reason is probably still valid even after a fall.

Possibly all you've lost is the opportunity to buy more of the share for the same price, but you'd have to be an absolute genius with timing to reliably exploit such opportunities.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

29 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

To my mind you're drifting left and could do with a quick shove to the right 

Per-person-tailoring of pronouns? No chance, they're lucky if I remember their names. If it's one eccentric making a memorable request that's one thing, but the wokeists want us to remember multiple items per person (name, noun/pronoun, possessive pronoun).

The potential values are not limited to two genders either, e.g. zir, them etc.

Frankly it's not scalable and I (me, mine) will not do it.

 

As Theodore dalrymple points out, it's the same tactic as Soviet propaganda. The aim isn't to convince you, it's to demoralise you by making you participate in the lie.

 

It's not a woman, it's a subnormal bloke with a mental illness and/or fetish.

 

The minute you go along with it then smash every mirror in your house because you're a prick, and nobody wants to look at a prick.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Looks like Oz housing is turning Japanese. 

[Animal Spirits]

23 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

(I realsie I msut be doing something worng but if someone could confirm how to get it I'd be grateful)

Confirmed here but doesn't say why, data no longer on FRED:

https://news.research.stlouisfed.org/2022/01/ice-benchmark-administration-ltd-iba-data-to-be-removed-from-fred/

[Sidd]

Honesty i appreciate all the feedback, i know it's mostly aimed towards you @kibuc but it applies as much to me. No one else will level my head as much as this thread, not even my family as they dont know have the experience, knowledge and coolness that is collectively available here.

 

I am doing exactly as you said @DurhamBorn i have forgetton about those silver miners. I am not so phased by there current value anymore, i just treat them as owning something you would for sentimental value alone. That way i dont panic or worry about short term price movements anymore. I plan to start adding more from my earnings going forward in other sectors now.

 

Another thing I did that helped me is to stop following individuals on twitter like Dave Hunter etc and realise those people put dramatic statements out to grow their social media following first and foremost. That is not the case on dosbods.

 

Kibuc you will come good, you are in the right place being here. I hope you eventually read this all, but even better if you are taking time away from the screen to get some fresh air or do something productive (just dont do anything rash or silly). Life isn't all about the money, we could be dead tomorrow, get terminal illness, those are things you cant really plan for. Enjoy every moment, even if you have little and more so with your kids, they are the most precious thing out there.

[Boon]

50 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

An actually useful story from the BBC spelling out how much everyone is starting to feel this recession / depression: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61920559

People cut back on food shopping as price rises bite

Households are cutting back on food shopping as the rising cost of living bites into budgets.

Nearly half of adults surveyed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said they had bought less food in the past fortnight due to higher prices.

The price of food was also the most common reason for why those asked were seeing their monthly outgoings rising overall, the ONS said.

Supermarkets Asda and Tesco have said customers are cutting back on shopping.

The ONS said its feedback from supermarkets also suggested customers were spending less on their food shop because of the rising cost of living.

It found that sales in supermarkets dropped 1.5% in May, with a 2.2% fall in specialist shops such as butchers and bakers.

Retail sales overall fell by 0.5% in May

Prices overall are continuing to rise at their fastest rate for 40 years, with UK inflation at 9.1%, the highest level since March 1982.

I dunno if it will be captured but spending less on food does not equate to actually getting less food.

Cutting back on food without having an effect on lifestyle is certainly possible for all. For a start I would say most households waste a lot of food, Almost all households will buy things that if not bought would not really change anything in terms of hunger, and the opportunity cost in terms of basic foodstuffs is very high. Thinking of stuff like Walls magnums, Coke, maybe even beer. 

You can switch down brands which gives you the same amount of food at a lower price (ie own brand cereal instead of Kelloggs) 

More interesting (to me anyway) was the other stuff in the survey, 46% of people expect to save no money in the next year, 33% of people could not afford an unexpected expense of £850.

 

[DoINeedOne]

35 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Yours look a bit close to the ceiling for my liking.

Seems ok to me not sure what you're on about

[geordie_lurch]

Make sure you swap your old £20 and £50 notes from under your mattresses / bug out shelters people as the BoE have given us a 100 day warning: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/june/100-days-left-to-use-your-paper-20-and-50-banknotes

"The Bank of England will be withdrawing legal tender status of paper £20 and £50 banknotes after 30 September 2022.

After this date, paper £20 and £50 banknotes will no longer be legal tender. So we are encouraging anyone who still has these to use them or deposit them at their bank or a Post Office during these last 100 day"

 

[DoINeedOne]

7 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Another thing I did that helped me is to stop following individuals on twitter like Dave Hunter etc and realise those people put dramatic statements out to grow their social media following first and foremost. That is not the case on dosbods.

 

One thing i do on twitter because there's alot value there but also alot noise is block keywords under account settings

 

[geordie_lurch]

Just now, DoINeedOne said:

One thing i do on twitter because there's alot value there but also alot noise is block keywords under account settings

Is your list "David, Hunter, David Hunter, Watch and learn"

[Pip321]

56 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

To my mind you're drifting left and could do with a quick shove to the right 

Per-person-tailoring of pronouns? No chance, they're lucky if I remember their names. If it's one eccentric making a memorable request that's one thing, but the wokeists want us to remember multiple items per person (name, noun/pronoun, possessive pronoun).

The potential values are not limited to two genders either, e.g. zir, them etc.

Frankly it's not scalable and I (me, mine) will not do it.

 

Apologies, you are right.😆😆

When I say ‘I am happy’ you are indeed to correct me….what I mean is ‘I literally don’t care’. Ie no prejudice…but no acknowledgement either.

True story. My team of 16 senior managers (ranging from a diverse 35 to 60) once gave me an unprecedented top marks in the whole country for ‘diversity management with the team’.

The comments were that ‘Pip’ is rude to each and everyone one of us equally regardless of sex, location or physical ability. My boss (a senior director a big FTSE 100 company) thought it was hilarious, particularly as our role was a fairly serious auditor compliance type function…basically i think it was my teams way of telling HR to go fuck themselves. And yes I was very rude to my guys..

I had the skint DFS buying and Friday afternoon hairdo’s from North East, the Sheep shagging Cumbrians, the facially ugly and dirty accent West York’s crew, the potato eating Irish, the benefit scroungers from Hull and the ‘chip on their shoulder’ Scottish bastards. Not least the dim witted inbred North Yorkshire crew of which I included myself. I left that team 8 years ago and the business 3.5 years ago and rarely a day goes by where one of them doesn’t ring me…normally with my initial reply ‘I’ve left already…what the fuck do you want’. Just fun…with a real respect and dare I say love for the best team I ever worked with.

More importantly have Rio hit my next ladder yet.😆

[Long-game]

16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You will come good on your holdings,silver will be one of the three best performing assets this cycle,just a matter of when,junior miners can treble in weeks once things move.Your not like the sheep walking around.You will own a house,you will set your kids on their way.Get a barbell,im glad i got one again thanks to the lads on here.Its a great way to empty your mind with the added bonus of being able to rip limbs of any clowns who go near your family.

 

 

Barbell and even an exercise bike, better investment than anything on the markets imho, money is useless without health.

[DoINeedOne]

14 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Is your list "David, Hunter, David Hunter, Watch and learn"

Just all the names of shares i own, no news is good news right...

[Axeman123]

35 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

Per-person-tailoring of pronouns?

A podcaster made the point that this in effect gives the wokeists "aristocrat" status, where mere plebs must only speak when spoken to for fear of making a slip of ettiquette (with terrible personal cost). It would also enable a heirachy of woke,  with ranks of Xer/Xey etc in place of Duke/Viscount etc.

 

[Axeman123]

16 hours ago, feed said:

Bloody good video.