Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

51 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Does anyone sell anything on ebay here ?

I've been trying to shift a fridge, cant see to give it away.

Deflation in 2nd hand prices anyone ?

 

Facebook marketplace is where you buy and sell things like that.

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I sell on there a lot, it's absolutely fucked. Gumtree the same.

 

Nobody is spending.

 

Iv just bought £200s worth of Lab Series on Ebay from the shoplifters this week 1/3 the price.Iv bought a few pairs of cracking leather low top trainers the last two weeks,Italian calf leather £20 to £30 a pair,£230+ new.Iv noticed the shoplifters have much more stock on than usual,Boots etc must be getting hammered.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just bought £200s worth of Lab Series on Ebay from the shoplifters this week 1/3 the price.Iv bought a few pairs of cracking leather low top trainers the last two weeks,Italian calf leather £20 to £30 a pair,£230+ new.Iv noticed the shoplifters have much more stock on than usual,Boots etc must be getting hammered.

Alternative reason is that it is selling slower. Perhaps it is the shoplifters who are struggling to sell and need to lower their prices further?

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just bought £200s worth of Lab Series on Ebay from the shoplifters this week 1/3 the price.Iv bought a few pairs of cracking leather low top trainers the last two weeks,Italian calf leather £20 to £30 a pair,£230+ new.Iv noticed the shoplifters have much more stock on than usual,Boots etc must be getting hammered.

Definitely.

 

I know you've mentioned it a few times lately but I'll reiterate: it's the biggest buyer's market in my lifetime on eBay, FB, gumtree etc for used goods.

 

So if any of you need gear then now is the time to fill your boots 

[23rdian]

6 hours ago, Pip321 said:

As Rio dropped to 5180 I bought in I bloody said it would drop further😆😆….200 beautiful shares  

So now at 4900 do I put another ladder in….knowing this is massive commodity producing, 11% yielding, £30 billion profit making business and will come good. And those investing in low yielding shite are wrong.  

Or as @SpectrumFX beautifully and hilariously put it a page or two ago…” I just kept throwing money at it like some great big fucking mong.”

I would suggest this is a wonderful game…but of course timing is a real bugger.

My objective is just to beat cash so I may just put in a cheeky half ladder. I like Rio as a 20 year hold….which after 8/9 years May pay for itself in divi’s.

If I buy today…expect the predictable further falls 🤦🏻‍♂️😆 

Thanks for the heads up. Just bought a few. What I do is half the amount I actually want to buy. Then if it drops lower considering adding the other half at that point. If it rises. Just leave it alone as and count it as a win. 

Probably flawed logic but that's me.

Perhaps that's what you mean by half ladder? Not sure?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Excellent thought, Harley. The corollary of that is if you do the work, you own the mistakes. I've made plenty, but they're mine.

I treat this like a part time job, and I frame it as that to my family. I've spent about 20 hours a week on it for the last 4 years, ontop of my day job. I decided it was the best use of my commuting and spare evening time. It's tiring at times, but I simply wouldn't put my hard earned on the line otherwise. Mostly reading, some model building, learning charts and macro. 

In fairness to Kibuc, he has put in the work to his sector and I hope he gets rewarded for it.

The problem you have is doing a proper productive job of use to wider society. Some of us can get 10 hours of that research done during working hours.

Fair play to you though, I hope you're well paid for what you do.

[janch]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Make sure you swap your old £20 and £50 notes from under your mattresses / bug out shelters people as the BoE have given us a 100 day warning: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/june/100-days-left-to-use-your-paper-20-and-50-banknotes

"The Bank of England will be withdrawing legal tender status of paper £20 and £50 banknotes after 30 September 2022.

After this date, paper £20 and £50 banknotes will no longer be legal tender. So we are encouraging anyone who still has these to use them or deposit them at their bank or a Post Office during these last 100 day"

 

When I first heard this I was thinking WTF but on reading it, it's the old paper ones not the new-fangled plastic ones.  

We need to do all we can to use cash or we will lose it to fully controlable CBDCs.  I'm keeping some at home for when the ATMs are empty or the lights go out (no shopping without the computerised checkouts) but with cash food will be available from market stall holders. 

TPTB will say we don't need dirty cash and it will stop illicit drug-dealing etc but as someone said yeserday cash in hand is always welcomed by anyone doing a trade which means cheaper rates and less taxes to HMRC.  Cash is freedom from the state and they know it which is why they want rid.

[Democorruptcy]

52 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I bought a couple of cheap £3 T-shirts from primark last year…and the collars are knackered, fair enough…now I can sleep in them. 

Went back today to Primark and the cheapest T shirt was £8. So instead went to M&S and bought theirs, 3 for £18.

Interesting dynamic of prices going on. I still haven’t bought ANY milk from the local co-op since their price went to above my local sainsburys.

Cheapest T-shirt in Primark £8? No way!

https://www.primark.com/en-gb/c/men/clothing/tops-and-t-shirts

[Harley]

33 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The problem you have is doing a proper productive job of use to wider society. Some of us can get 10 hours of that research done during working hours.

Fair play to you though, I hope you're well paid for what you do.

That has been my biggest challenge by far for a long time.  I can do loads, but it's what I can effectively do given the competing demands I have.  I have to accept what's available and tailor my activities accordingly, regardless of ability or potential.  You're fecked if you don't have a system but you're also fecked if you have a system you can't manage to consistently apply.  All part of that up front plumbing...  No more short term trading, etc.  I now have an approach which dovetails with all the rest going on in my life and I have to control myself to stay in that box.  I could do more and do better, but ony at the cost of other things.  It's just an extended form of diversification. 

[23rdian]

3 hours ago, arrow said:

Look at the man who started this thread way back on tos, durhamborn. Saw his hometown destroyed when we still need coal. Left school, got a job, redundant, had cancer, no inheritance. Turned it all around. Now looking out for his kids and grandkids. You've got money, are "highly skilled professionals", got kids. There are people from tos who have been waiting for a house for 20 years and have no kids now because they put it off so long because of wanting a nice house in a good area. Ok, perhaps before your time being from Poland but you've got to look at the things you've got and look at durhamborn's example. Count your blessings and play the hand you're given and work the opportunities that come about.

It's just money at the end of the day. I would rather have some than be skint but fiat is a fiction. I speculate as I enjoy doing so. It's middle class gambling. 

That said, focusing on income generating stuff has been a game changer for me lately. Really enjoying seeing the divis roll in each month.

I have missed out on some truely life changing sums since 2008 but you just have to let it go and think there's always someone worse off.

Health > Money 💰

[Pip321]

30 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Cheapest T-shirt in Primark £8? No way!

https://www.primark.com/en-gb/c/men/clothing/tops-and-t-shirts

Fair enough matey….non in the store and it’s soooo hot I wanted some today.  Had I been more patient (or perhaps if I had liked the old ones better) I could have ordered these.

M&S ones might last longer though. At £6 a pop I am happy to try. 

I can feedback my extensive testing and research in a few months time 😆

[Funn3r]

31 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Cheapest T-shirt in Primark £8? No way!

https://www.primark.com/en-gb/c/men/clothing/tops-and-t-shirts

Press the "check store availability" button; most of the cheap ones are out of stock. They always are which is why I stopped bothering going as it's a faff when you've paid to park then walked there. I do like Primark's basic t shirts though.

 

[JMD]

20 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

My place is so Woke USA its untrue, their current bleeding heart gripe is despite all 'the diversity' they have thrown at the problem they only have 16.5% female engineers.

The bit I'm in is like 5%. So they have some online thing to harangue us with this afternoon which gets ignored.

The thing is, all the really good engineers who do engineering rather than the more lucrative 'management' are Neurologically Diverse Spassers on the Autism Spectrum who have less than 10% empathy with touchy feely stuff.

The thing is these Spassers are typically Male as females are generally not afflicted with an interest or need to do 'engineering'.

Here is the fucking science you woke retards.

Results: Fifty-four studies were analyzed, with 13,784,284 participants, of whom 53,712 had ASD (43,972 boys and 9,740 girls).

The results match.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28545751/

Yep, males are kinda wired to operate at the extremes, ie many war heros but also lots of serial killers, to put it crudely.         ...Btw be cautious where and how you discuss those gender/work role stats, after all it didn't end well for former Google engineer James Damore, despite him only doing something similar and emailing facts and explanations about male/female preferences/aptitudes.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, 23rdian said:

Thanks for the heads up. Just bought a few. What I do is half the amount I actually want to buy. Then if it drops lower considering adding the other half at that point. If it rises. Just leave it alone as and count it as a win. 

Probably flawed logic but that's me.

Perhaps that's what you mean by half ladder? Not sure?

I am glad one of us bought…they have jumped up again. My very short term trades have always been crap…longer term I tend to do ok. 

I am waiting for just over 4800p for Rio, and then my average will be 5000p a share. Happy to miss out and just have one ladder for now.

Rio are really volatile as the markets move, they could be 6200p next week or 4500p. But hoping for maybe an extra divi in August which will boost the price.   

Yep, I did mean a half ladder i.e. if I planned to buy 200 shares (I buy even numbers of shares not even cash amounts) then instead I might have bought 100 shares. 

Ps...just reviewed your definition of ladder....so in my case I would buy 3 or 4 ladders (eg 200 shares on each ladder). That is laddering.  So in this example I meant I was planning to add another ladder of say 200 shares at 4800p but was considering to add an extra 'mini ladder' eg 100 shares at 4850p. 

In any event I did fack all. 

My strategy in these nervous times in more akin to a trader and to buy at a price I like and if they do go in a rally then sell and buy another share I like which is out of favour. Effectively using volatility. But only buying things I am happy to hold for a long long time (ie micro investing but both eyes on the macro).

Only trying to beat cash and collect some divi’s means it’s an easier strategy

Rio doesn’t really fall into everyone’s strategy on this thread….I like the dividend and it’s worldwide. Some miners are too country specific for my liking and as I found with Poly…things can change quickly. 

 

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Definitely.

 

I know you've mentioned it a few times lately but I'll reiterate: it's the biggest buyer's market in my lifetime on eBay, FB, gumtree etc for used goods.

 

So if any of you need gear then now is the time to fill your boots 

I was just going to like this but x2.
I stopped buying stuff during the lockdowns etc but really just filling my boots at the minute, going long on fixables as well, bought a spot weld dent puller the other day Ive already mentioned and a small plastic staple type welder came today.
Virtually everything Ive watched in the last couple of months that was buy it now has come back with an offer and if I make a low ball offer initially, most come back with something decent, bringing things down to the levels they were before all this covid shitshow started.

Friend came round the other day to look at my dvd/blu ray collection, took some 2nds home with them. Id been buying fill in titles off ebay (music magpie etc). They referred me to music magpies main site, ordered a 5ers worth of blu rays, they would send me a 5er voucher, turns out its not a music magpie voucher but any store voucher. Got a tesco one.

Just walked round to the local tesco (3 mile round trip walk), 2l milk, some paracetamol, fruit and enough marked down potato bread to fill the small packpack for just over a fiver. So 4 blu rays and all of that for just over a fiver.
Bought some greek yoghurt to mix up with the fruit and over 2 punnets of strawberries from the first batch from the garden. Thats this weekends lunches sorted.

Keep your shares and your crypto ;-)

@kibuc you dont know me from adam but I do read all of your posts at least once over. That really doesnt mean much but the best advice Ive seen (sorry forget the poster) was to go out and get your head showered as we say over here. Go out for a walk with the family, have a picnic, sit by the sea/mountains/river. Shit like that gets remembered for a lot longer. Go for a walk in the rain.

[janch]

I've just received my best divi yet from Tesco.  I was buying and selling a bit (ie trading) when there were still a few growth type things and I was a sort of momentum trader riding the wave but since the turn into a proper reflation everything's up and down so I've turned into a proper buy and hold investor.  Some of my shares are up, some down but not enough to top-slice or take profits.  The last one I sold out of completely was K&S Ag at the end of May.  I'm keeping my eye on it as I'd like to rebuy it if it starts to become popular again.  (Potash is also in short supply so I don't really know why it dropped). I managed to top-slice on the way up several times.  It is one I seem to have done right but I've had quite a few duds where I've bought at the wrong time and then they've gone down.  If they're divi payers I keep them though and don't worry too much about their price as I'm not looking to sell. Now I'm more concentrating on the divis and holding for the long-term. 

Top-slicing has worked for me as I don't like to see what used to be a good profit slowly turn to dust.  I probably make less doing it this way but it feels good taking a profit just in case everything is about to turn south.  My exceptions are the oilies as I can't see the price of oil going down for a long time yet.

I have a lot less invested than most on here as I was a late starter so have tended to buy in £1K lots and have occasionally added more to some of them.  This means I must have paid a lot more proportionally in fees but I'm looking on it as a hobby and so far I'm up overall. Considering all the MSM financial press are running articles about people losing but to hold on and not to sell in a panic, I feel lucky.  Without this thread pointing me in the right direction I would more than likely be one of the losers.

[Boon]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Does anyone sell anything on ebay here ?

I've been trying to shift a fridge, cant see to give it away.

Deflation in 2nd hand prices anyone ?

 

When shipping costs outweigh the value of it, stuff becomes difficult to sell. 

If you put it on Freecycle or Gumtree it'll move quick though

When I was moving house I had loads of shit to sell. The psychology of £0 is really powerful. Had stuff like a sofa that had no takers for even £20, yet when I put it to £0... I guess it must have been the equivalent of a hot bird on a dating site.

I don't think there was anything that failed to get any interest. Even crap plastic plants, second hand doormats, used rucksacks.... got people to take them no problem. 

[JMD]

20 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Keynes.

 

He might have enjoyed bumming young waiters, but he wasn't wrong.

 

About inflation I mean. Not bumming young waiters.

Didn't Keynes famously only spend half hour a day stock picking, whilst still in bed and by only using the financial sections of the daily newspapers... No day trading or TA for him - different times I suppose! Even so he still amassed a £500,000 fortune (£30M equivalent today) by the time of his death in 1946, despite being wiped out in the 1929 crash.

[Boglet]

9 minutes ago, Boon said:

When shipping costs outweigh the value of it, stuff becomes difficult to sell. 

If you put it on Freecycle or Gumtree it'll move quick though

When I was moving house I had loads of shit to sell. The psychology of £0 is really powerful. Had stuff like a sofa that had no takers for even £20, yet when I put it to £0... I guess it must have been the equivalent of a hot bird on a dating site.

I don't think there was anything that failed to get any interest. Even crap plastic plants, second hand doormats, used rucksacks.... got people to take them no problem. 

tbh I've always found the opposite. Stuff listed for free has no takers but if you ask some nominal amount say £5 instead people are interested. Very odd.

[DurhamBorn]

57 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Definitely.

 

I know you've mentioned it a few times lately but I'll reiterate: it's the biggest buyer's market in my lifetime on eBay, FB, gumtree etc for used goods.

 

So if any of you need gear then now is the time to fill your boots 

Here is an example of the shoplifters (or more likely a fence)

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/175328973193?hash=item28d26bd189:g:pKMAAOSwIFxiPFCy

£17,delivered,these are £49 in the shops (and superb i must add).I got two of these this week from different sellers for £14.

Or this (another superb product usually around £30)

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/363793076249?hash=item54b3c1d019:g:3KsAAOSwkoxiTvFx

Im buying up 3 to 5 years worth of everything i can like this without use by dates.

Im sure before long shops will remove everything like this off the shelves.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

Fair enough matey….non in the store and it’s soooo hot I wanted some today.  Had I been more patient (or perhaps if I had liked the old ones better) I could have ordered these.

M&S ones might last longer though. At £6 a pop I am happy to try. 

I can feedback my extensive testing and research in a few months time 😆

I'm currently wearing an Asda T-shirt @ 2 for £6. Living the dream.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

Press the "check store availability" button; most of the cheap ones are out of stock. They always are which is why I stopped bothering going as it's a faff when you've paid to park then walked there. I do like Primark's basic t shirts though.

 

Just tried that on a cheap £2 and there are millions available.

https://www.primark.com/en-gb/p/cotton-crew-neck-t-shirt-991020717804

The UK economy could not cope with the cheapest Primark T-Shirt being £8 - Fact! The doleys would be rioting in the streets.

 

[Funn3r]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Just tried that on a cheap £2 and there are millions available.

https://www.primark.com/en-gb/p/cotton-crew-neck-t-shirt-991020717804

The UK economy could not cope with the cheapest Primark T-Shirt being £8 - Fact! The doleys would be rioting in the streets.

 

Weird I just get a sea of red, OK only checked the 3.50 ones, like this

[Jeff2500]

51 minutes ago, Boglet said:

tbh I've always found the opposite. Stuff listed for free has no takers but if you ask some nominal amount say £5 instead people are interested. Very odd.

You often see that when people put stuff on their drive saying “free to a good home”. If you put a price of £10 instead someone will steal it.

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Just tried that on a cheap £2 and there are millions available.

https://www.primark.com/en-gb/p/cotton-crew-neck-t-shirt-991020717804

The UK economy could not cope with the cheapest Primark T-Shirt being £8 - Fact! The doleys would be rioting in the streets.

 

Grey joggers with dirty knees.Popped in Spoons yesterday and two young bennie families the two lads had shorts and black socks half way up to their knees.Not much different to Primark t shirts.Im ashamed of you all.