Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I think I've talked on here enough about the tribulations of living in Bracknell so I am already doxed to that extent. Anyone who worries about this sort of thing needs to be more concerned about sending of camera-phone pictures to people, as these are quite likely to have your GPS exact coordinates. 

That's why I always ask strangers to take pictures of my cock with THEIR iphone.

[The Grey Man]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

That's why I always ask strangers to take pictures of my cock with THEIR iphone.

My evening quaff of cheapo Morrisons boxed Pinot Grigio has just been expelled in laughter!

[Bus Stop Boxer]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

BJ says a pay rise wouldn't be in your best interest, as it would just fuel inflation:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10955201/Johnson-says-no-point-giving-workers-pay-rises-price-spiral-cancel-benefit.html

I wonder if the same logic will be applied to benefits...?

But Sunak shitting money in to every available orifice for 2 years is fine. Yes, we see.

A £20K income tax threshold and the abandonment of all green loonery would have done just fine, Sunak you cunt.

Complete sabotage.

[sancho panza]

On 24/06/2022 at 14:10, ThoughtCriminal said:

I sell on there a lot, it's absolutely fucked. Gumtree the same.

 

Nobody is spending.

 

Interesting TC.

iirc you trade cars as well?What's that been like of late?Obviously no pressure but I was sure you had some expereince

On 25/06/2022 at 16:23, M S E Refugee said:

Utter dogshit unless you employ our secret weapon, namely the Gold Silver ratio!

I would be interested at what levels our chart experts would swap Gold for Silver and vice-versa.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-ratio/gold-silver-ratio-chart/

The History of the Gold-Silver Ratio

Historically, the gold-silver ratio has only evidenced substantial fluctuation since just before the beginning of the 20th century. For hundreds of years prior to that time, the ratio, often set by governments for purposes of monetary stability, was fairly steady.

 

The Roman Empire officially set the ratio at 12:1. The ratio reached 14.2:1 in Venice in 1305 and remained at this level up until 1330 when it fell to 10:1. In 1350 it fell to 9.4:1 in some places across Europe. It climbed back to 12:1 in the 1450s.1 The U.S. government fixed the ratio at 15:1 with the Coinage Act of 1792.2

I did some research into this some time back and the GS ratio had it's most important use as a sell tool but the sample is small so dyor ntach.

I'll see if I can dig it out this week,but generally the narrowing of the gs has meant that it's a good time to sell.as I remember not so goodas a buy signal.I'll be mainly using it to time any exit from PM's

[M S E Refugee]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting TC.

iirc you trade cars as well?What's that been like of late?Obviously no pressure but I was sure you had some expereince

I did some research into this some time back and the GS ratio had it's most important use as a sell tool but the sample is small so dyor ntach.

I'll see if I can dig it out this week,but generally the narrowing of the gs has meant that it's a good time to sell.as I remember not so goodas a buy signal.I'll be mainly using it to time any exit from PM's

I am selling some Gold this week to buy more Silver seeing as the Gold/Silver ratio is over 85.

I was thinking about selling Silver for Gold when it goes down at around 50 to 1.

[sancho panza]

15 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I would imagine the same thing would happen with Gold as what is happening with Oil at the moment.

Somewhere like India will buy it off the Russians and melt it down and recast the bars as Indian Gold then sell it to the West at a premium.

The West looks pretty feeble at the moment.

It's hard to contemplate the sheer fuckwittery involved in Western sanctions of Russian oil&gold.....I bet the Chinese are sat there too busy laughing to take time for a shit.

It's almost as if our public schoolboy elite missed out on all the lessons in street smarts that were dished out to Putin/Xi.

I was saying to my dear old Mum the other day that I'd always imagined that tiw ould be impossible to plumb the depts of Gordon Browns fuckwittery but I was totally and utterly worng given what we're seeing to day.

This is the Brown bottom in gold on steroids.

13 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I own some Turkcell, however if Erdoğan pivots more towards Russia, or does something that irritates USA. Could Turkish assets be sanctioned by Biden / EU / UK in the future?

We'll be needing Erdogan to protect us in the not too distant the way von der Leyen is going.

[sancho panza]

57 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am selling some Gold this week to buy more Silver seeing as the Gold/Silver ratio is over 85.

I was thinking about selling Silver for Gold when it goes down at around 50 to 1.

I tend to run my charts from peaks and troughs on monthlies MSE and it throws up a lot of patterns that you'd never see if you used 10/20/30 year charts.

The GS ratio has real potency on the sell side.I don't think you'll go much worng with that trade you're proposing or  a short gold/long silver pairs trade.

Silver looks exciting here.

[ThoughtCriminal]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting TC.

iirc you trade cars as well?What's that been like of late?Obviously no pressure but I was sure you had some expereince

 

The cars are even worse. Nothing is moving, even at heavy reduction.

 

I have a lot of friends and acquaintances in the car game and they're saying the same. I'm seeing stuff at prices that would have had your hand snapped off a year ago, now won't budge.

 

I've also been looking for a new motorbike and seeing lovely examples on there weeks later that still haven't sold when I know they're cheap.

 

There's definitely a palpable reluctance to spend.

 

Makes me wonder how much of a signal it is and what, if any, conclusions I can draw about the economy generally.

 

My gut tells me that it's a good indicator that something Wicked this way comes, to get Shakespearean.

[HousePriceMania]

10 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

BJ says a pay rise wouldn't be in your best interest, as it would just fuel inflation:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10955201/Johnson-says-no-point-giving-workers-pay-rises-price-spiral-cancel-benefit.html

I wonder if the same logic will be applied to benefits...?

So what does handing out more to the beenie brigade and pensioners do ?

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

So what does handing out more to the beenie brigade and pensioners do ?

Increases prices even more,worse paid for by workers who need to consume the same items,but are only getting sub inflation increases,its a direct transfer of wealth from workers to none workers.This cycle is all because we dont produce enough for the demands of the population,its the whole thesis of the thread and why i was able to flag todays inflation almost exactly back in 2019.Its also the reason this government is finished,maybe even a Tory wipe out,unless they do a massive turn.

Woman over road gets 10% she simply buys more Uber-eats,that means Mcdonalds have more demand for energy,cardboard etc,but this inflation is coming from de-complex primary sources,we dont (and in some cases cant) produce enough,so the price increases.This means she can keep consuming those takeaways because her free income is inflation linked,but the worker whos pay isnt cant.So over time the worker consumes less,the bennie more.

The answer is to link bennies to 1% lower than median earnings increases,slowly lowering their spending power.Then use tax incentives to encourage primary production.

Its the biggest policy error i have seen from government since Suez.Sounds crazy,but they are destroying the reason to work for masses of people.Or the reason to work over say 12 to 18 hours before bennie clawback kicks in.

The BOE has monetised almost the entire working age welfare budget for 10 years ,so every single bennie is inflation on a worker on top of tax increases.

The Blair/Brown government was horrific,Cameron,Osborne and to be fait the Libs in some ways started to repair the damage,Boris and Sunak have destroyed that work and are now walking into a disaster.

Il repeat,3 retired coppers,1 retired council worker,1 retired social worker,3 bennie families in my close all getting 10% increases for sitting at home doing nothing.8 working families getting around 3% for working 80 hours between them in some cases.Boris thinks it isnt inflationary.

[feed]

39 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

So what does handing out more to the beenie brigade and pensioners do ?

Increase wages. He's simply lying.

They wouldn't have built so many fiscal drag traps if they weren't expecting pay increases.  

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, feed said:

Increase wages. He's simply lying.

They wouldn't have built so many fiscal drag traps if they weren't expecting pay increases.  

Exactly,every allowance frozen.The income tax one doing the most damage,and worse i suspect Sunak will knock 1p off income tax when upgrading the allowance is much more important for the working lower and middle,but the other including IHT a disaster for people who actually save etc.BOE through monetising has destroyed the need for capital creation from savings,or so they think,but of course that means massive miss-allocating of the capital.

Iv come to the conclusion though,from the evidence Sunak is as clueless as Boris,or both simple only care about their image.Doing more damage than Brown is something i thought id never see.He is like Ethelred handing out Danegeld to the bennies and retired public sector,draining the rest of the population,hoping they go away,but the nest year they always return and want more,and when there is no more,state collapse.

[sleepwello'nights]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This cycle is all because we dont produce enough for the demands of the population,its the whole thesis of the thread and why i was able to flag todays inflation almost exactly back in 2019.Its also the reason this government is finished,maybe even a Tory wipe out,unless they do a massive turn.

 

Not only that the government are pursuing policies to make us produce even less. Rewilding schemes spring immediately to mind. Its not as if we are self sufficient in food production. 

We have got used to more and more items on the supermarket shelves that are flown in from around the world. Even items that are suited to our climate, like apples, are imported. I just don't understand how crops that are not labour intensive are cheaper to import. 

Wasn't there a link posted about greenhouses in the Lea valley being removed and the land used for housing. 

[Underwhelmed]

Complete economic suicide! Imbeciles really are in charge.

 

[JMD]

11 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am selling some Gold this week to buy more Silver seeing as the Gold/Silver ratio is over 85.

I was thinking about selling Silver for Gold when it goes down at around 50 to 1.

I went overweight silver couple years back and averaged 100/1 gsr. It's a risk not owning gold, but plan to start swopping for gold when sub 50/1 gsr and then keep laddering down. Francis Hunt expects 20/1 (he would though!) but I'd be happy if achieved an average 33/1 swop, meaning I'd accumulated 3x the gold than if I'd simply bought gold 2 years ago... And If gsr did go as low as Hunt predicts I would swop some gold back into silver as/when gsr went back 'up'. In fact I'd probably continue to do this with a much smaller part of my gold and silver. However the bulk of my gains would be put securely under lock and key (or under floorboards and ball bearings!!!).

[M S E Refugee]

13 minutes ago, JMD said:

I went overweight silver couple years back and averaged 100/1 gsr. It's a risk not owning gold, but plan to start swopping for gold when sub 50/1 gsr and then keep laddering down. Francis Hunt expects 20/1 (he would though!) but I'd be happy if achieved an average 33/1 swop, meaning I'd accumulated 3x the gold than if I'd simply bought gold 2 years ago... And If gsr did go as low as Hunt predicts I would swop some gold back into silver as/when gsr went back 'up'. In fact I'd probably continue to do this with a small part of my gold and silver. However the bulk of my gains would be put securely under lock and key (or under floorboards and ball bearings!!!).

I am trying to formulate a strategy at the moment where I would always have a core holding of Gold and Silver so I can take advantage of any wild swings in the GSR.

Between my Physical Holdings and Bullionvault I am aiming to have 3000oz of Silver and I would trade 2000oz at 50 to 1 and leave myself with 1000oz to ladder down with in case we get under 20 to 1.

I would welcome any ideas of how best to play this as I am just a clueless Postman.

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am trying to formulate a strategy at the moment where I would always have a core holding of Gold and Silver so I can take advantage of any wild swings in the GSR.

Between my Physical Holdings and Bullionvault I am aiming to have 3000oz of Silver and I would trade 2000oz at 50 to 1 and leave myself with 1000oz to ladder down with in case we get under 20 to 1.

I would welcome any ideas of how best to play this as I am just a clueless Postman.

"1000oz" on page 1000.  

You just wanted to post on page 1000 didn't you ?

[DurhamBorn]

46 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Not only that the government are pursuing policies to make us produce even less. Rewilding schemes spring immediately to mind. Its not as if we are self sufficient in food production. 

We have got used to more and more items on the supermarket shelves that are flown in from around the world. Even items that are suited to our climate, like apples, are imported. I just don't understand how crops that are not labour intensive are cheaper to import. 

Wasn't there a link posted about greenhouses in the Lea valley being removed and the land used for housing. 

My dad has two apple trees,one cooker,one eater,the amount of apples you get is incredible,you could feed four families on apple pie all winter off those two trees.Why do the council have massive areas of grass just for dog owners to let Fido shit on?,they should be planted with fruit trees everywhere.

There are huge areas that should be re-wilded,like behind my house in the North Pennines,masses of empty moors,but half a dozen landed gentry have them so them and their mates can blast little birds apart.They should be mixed moor,oak,birch open woodland.Lots of the land up here is also empty grass fields with horses on them.They should be whats re-wilded.

Lots of food we grow here is still dirt cheap,carrots,peas etc,most of the price increases are going into things that have more energy and labour input costs.Noticed pasta has not moved up about 50% everywhere.Iv got 3 years worth.My family thought i was going to far,but not now,my dads even cleaned out under his stairs for me to install more shelves 

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is like Ethelred handing out Danegeld to the bennies and retired public sector,draining the rest of the population,hoping they go away,but the nest year they always return and want more,and when there is no more,state collapse.

We never pay any-one Welfare,
    No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
    And the nation that plays it is lost!"

(apologies to Rudyard Kipling but I suspect he would have agreed)

 

Then there's this stanza from his The Gods of the Copybook Headings:

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all, 
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul; 
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy, 
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."  

Pretty sound on economics, was old Rudyard!

 

[JMD]

Lots of recent thread posts and positive comments about Rio Tinto. I wonder, is that mining conglomerate considered the 'best of the bunch'?                                                                                                                                                       Rio's competitors - Anglo, BHP, Glencore - have each been divesting themselves of their 'evil' fossils fuel resources and/or have higher debt compared to Rio. So is the thesis here mainly one of staying away from poor feckless management?                                                                                                                                 In terms of divis, the historical divi payments are I think pretty similar between them (though tbh I haven't checked in detail?). But any insights into the thread favourites would be very useful to hear about.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am trying to formulate a strategy at the moment where I would always have a core holding of Gold and Silver so I can take advantage of any wild swings in the GSR.

Between my Physical Holdings and Bullionvault I am aiming to have 3000oz of Silver and I would trade 2000oz at 50 to 1 and leave myself with 1000oz to ladder down with in case we get under 20 to 1.

I would welcome any ideas of how best to play this as I am just a clueless Postman.

Not meant as advise as I am definitely no expert. However I would just like to emphasise that playing the GSR is risky, especially if you get 'caught' on the wrong side of the trade. Personally I think I am taking a large risk - but am happy to do so because I bought silver at 100/1. I was lucky to achieve that ratio, and importantly means there is more potential upside for me. Plus as I have previously said on here I like to take risks with 10% of my portfolio (so yes I also own BTC!). I'm rambling on a bit, but just trying to highlight that there are many moving parts here. Anyway my strategy is to ride/ladder the ratio down to hopefully 20/1 in order to obtain more gold. Once i'd done that, I would only consider risking perhaps 10% of my PMs for any future up/down GSR trades. 

[tank]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

It's hard to contemplate the sheer fuckwittery involved in Western sanctions of Russian oil&gold.....I bet the Chinese are sat there too busy laughing to take time for a shit.

It's almost as if our public schoolboy elite missed out on all the lessons in street smarts that were dished out to Putin/Xi.

I was saying to my dear old Mum the other day that I'd always imagined that tiw ould be impossible to plumb the depts of Gordon Browns fuckwittery but I was totally and utterly worng given what we're seeing to day.

This is the Brown bottom in gold on steroids.

We'll be needing Erdogan to protect us in the not too distant the way von der Leyen is going.

She takes her orders from Washington, same as that fat cunt in Downing Street. 

The US is shoring up its post war empire starting where it began - I.e Western Europe. 

Trump rattled the cages of the US establishment and they're not going to let things drift again. Russia has always been an enemy, but they've finally woken up to the threat of totalitarian China.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The answer is to link bennies to 1% lower than median earnings increases,slowly lowering their spending power.Then use tax incentives to encourage primary production.

Link benefits to 50% of the median earnings increase. 7% wage increase would mean 3.5% benefit increase. Or to the lowest 10th percentile, which would likely be lower still. I'd take the state pension out of that, people have put in many years graft to qualify, but not pension credit, which is not related to contributions.

[ThoughtCriminal]

He doesn't tweet much, but he never misses.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Lightly Toasted said:

We never pay any-one Welfare,
    No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
    And the nation that plays it is lost!"

(apologies to Rudyard Kipling but I suspect he would have agreed)

 

Then there's this stanza from his The Gods of the Copybook Headings:

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all, 
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul; 
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy, 
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."  

Pretty sound on economics, was old Rudyard!

 

Yes line upon line of lost wisdom . (The poem's original shaming intention, so 100 years on maybe nothing much changes!)                                                                                                                                                                                          Some time back i lightheartedly nominated on here that Kipling poem for becoming our 'deflation-reflation thread poem'... Today, events have become so much more serious and hyper that I think I'd vote for ANY(!) political party that stated those lines in their manifesto! ...Then again I think I'd be pretty stupid to believe any such party would be truthful on their word?