Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

Can't be overstated how badly the west have fucked up over Russia.

 

Causing themselves huge economic damage seems to be the least of it. They've scared numerous smaller but significant countries into deciding they'd rather not be bullied by them.

 

We'll see BRICS develop into a major alliance. One based on mutual interest, where you're not bullied with sanctions because you don't legalise trannies bumming your kid at school.

 

Iran and the Saudis are having discussions about normalising relations now, with China and Russia encouraging them in the background.

 

Biden is the perfect symbol for the West now.

[M S E Refugee]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Can't be overstated how badly the west have fucked up over Russia.

 

Causing themselves huge economic damage seems to be the least of it. They've scared numerous smaller but significant countries into deciding they'd rather not be bullied by them.

 

We'll see BRICS develop into a major alliance. One based on mutual interest, where you're not bullied with sanctions because you don't legalise trannies bumming your kid at school.

 

Iran and the Saudis are having discussions about normalising relations now, with China and Russia encouraging them in the background.

 

Biden is the perfect symbol for the West now.

The BRICS versus the West is reminiscent of Dosbods breakaway from the moribund HPC.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 hours ago, desertorchid said:

That is quite bizarre. Almost as if Macron is seizing a moment to get a couple of points across. At a moment he knows he will likely embarrass himself. The sort of thing you do to a girl you fancy at school.  Either Biden is not available during official meeting time or he is so senile that whatever anyone says it just never seems to register.

He is getting a message across publicly. He must know that the people he needs to reach are Biden's advisors not the potatus himself. This might be the best way of doing so - who knows what bureaucracy and Chinese whispers get in the way of formal channels. That he needs to do this shows how bad things are. He will be open carrying meeting notes in front of press photographers next.

I thought it interesting that he reckons there will be more supply in six months.

Of course Macron could be panicking that the power will go out in France this winter.

[geordie_lurch]

Another thing we will all be paying for soon it seems...

Families could be PAID to turn their lights off! National Grid plans to pay homes £6 for each kilowatt-hour they avoid using at peak times to avoid blackouts this winter via Daily Mail here and emphasis below mine:

"The proposals could see households paid up to £6 for each kilowatt-hour they avoid using at peak times, The Times said. That compares with the 28.34p homes pay per kilowatt-hour, enough to power a 100 watt lightbulb for ten hours.

National Grid, which is looking to offer the scheme to millions of families, said: 'Demand shifting has the potential to save consumers money and reduce carbon emissions.'

Families are struggling with energy bills that have jumped by 54 per cent (an average of £693) this year. 

They are set to jump a further £800, to an average of £2,800 a year, when energy regulator Ofgem raises the price cap in October.

National Grid ESO trialled the proposals with customers this year and is now looking to offer the scheme to millions of households. 

It is believed to have written to suppliers last week asking them to assess how much less energy their customers could be persuaded to use at peak times.

The cost of the scheme would be added onto energy bills but the National Grid is said to believe the additional charge would be less than the cost of paying power plants to increase supply."

No mention why this will be only offered to families and if this will only be for those already in receipt of benefits

[wherebee]

9 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Another thing it seems we will all be paying for soon it seems...

Families could be PAID to turn their lights off! National Grid plans to pay homes £6 for each kilowatt-hour they avoid using at peak times to avoid blackouts this winter via Daily Mail here and emphasis below mine:

"

How do you funnel more money to the asset rich?

I know!  those with two houses get shitloads because they won't be in one of them.

[M S E Refugee]

Boris's Oniomania is out of control, he is now funding anti-Putin scientists from the Ukraine and Russia, he loves spending our money on anything and everything.

Britain lures Russian talent https://www.rt.com/news/557964-boris-johnson-invites-russian-scientists/

[ThoughtCriminal]

I'd say that's a word perfect description of where we are.

 

Investing into this brave new world is another matter.

 

Any ideas on best approach? I know DB has Brazilian shares but are there any investment mechanisms that track BRICS?

[honkydonkey]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'd say that's a word perfect description of where we are.

 

Investing into this brave new world is another matter.

 

Any ideas on best approach? I know DB has Brazilian shares but are there any investment mechanisms that track BRICS?

a BRIC etf? Not been much of a money maker as yet. Top 10 holdings all look like Chinese.

[ThoughtCriminal]

9 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

a BRIC etf? Not been much of a money maker as yet. Top 10 holdings all look like Chinese.

Something along those lines but not weighted so heavily towards the Chinese as they're light on commodities.

 

It's definitely not a short term investment, there'll doubtless be ups and downs, but I think it's the direction of travel.

 

The more I see and hear of Western leaders the more I think we're completely fucked.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'd say that's a word perfect description of where we are.

 

Investing into this brave new world is another matter.

 

Any ideas on best approach? I know DB has Brazilian shares but are there any investment mechanisms that track BRICS?

 

 

Henderson Asian Income Investment Trust.I love their top 10,oil,materials telcos in Asia

	% of Fund
Sinopec	4.34
China National Building Material	3.82
Rio Tinto	3.82
Macquarie Group	3.75
BHP Group	3.63
Samsung Electronics	3.49
Santos	3.44
Macquarie Korea Infrastructure Fund	3.43
Telkom Indonesia Persero	3.26
Digital Telecommunications Infrastructure Fund Inc THB

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

 

Henderson Asian Income Investment Trust.I love their top 10,oil,materials telcos in Asia

	% of Fund
Sinopec	4.34
China National Building Material	3.82
Rio Tinto	3.82
Macquarie Group	3.75
BHP Group	3.63
Samsung Electronics	3.49
Santos	3.44
Macquarie Korea Infrastructure Fund	3.43
Telkom Indonesia Persero	3.26
Digital Telecommunications Infrastructure Fund Inc THB

Now that looks promising! Cheers DB

[BurntBread]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thread needs to think about the winners from what we knew all along, that oil demand is bigger than production.Looks certain we will see high prices for good,but also demand destruction.Very likely governments will have to cut fuel taxes for starters.Long supply chains will be even more of a liability.Incredible how cycles work,even reversing trends that most thought were forever.

Do you think there is anything different in kind now that energy prices prices are likely to be high indefinitely? You were always keen on public transport because they hedged their future oil costs (but they are getting taken away from us), and also telecoms as an alternative to travel (and because of the difficulty of competitors building infrastructure). I guess those still remain good bets.

I believe you were looking at Western industry being one of the places where the money gets handed on to next; is that more in doubt if they get persistent increases in input energy costs? (I'm thinking of the chemicals industry, for example, as we have discussed companies like BASF and Synthomer here).

Does it mean we have to expect less international trade, so that more of the supply chains have to be local? Could that mean more food processing in the UK, adapted to local crops? Does it mean more of the green technology supply chain, like solar panels and steel-making, has to be domestic?

You have said before that the UK is in a relatively good position amongst European countries, with lots of coal and wind, and still some north sea gas, so do we get more of Europe's heavy industry here than you thought previously?

I guess I'm struggling to understand whether you think the roadmap will be different, or just that you have more conviction on it. Or, maybe it's going to be a full-on reversion to the middle ages, and we'll all be eating pease pudding, with small beer and whatever rats we can trap; and only the wealthy will have transport, but that will be on horseback again. Go long buggy-whip manufacturers.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, ThoughtCriminal said:

Now that looks promising! Cheers DB

I own it,but buying more at the moment,their top 10 is like a modern version of a porn mag when i was 14

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Do you think there is anything different in kind now that energy prices prices are likely to be high indefinitely? You were always keen on public transport because they hedged their future oil costs (but they are getting taken away from us), and also telecoms as an alternative to travel (and because of the difficulty of competitors building infrastructure). I guess those still remain good bets.

I believe you were looking at Western industry being one of the places where the money gets handed on to next; is that more in doubt if they get persistent increases in input energy costs? (I'm thinking of the chemicals industry, for example, as we have discussed companies like BASF and Synthomer here).

Does it mean we have to expect less international trade, so that more of the supply chains have to be local? Could that mean more food processing in the UK, adapted to local crops? Does it mean more of the green technology supply chain, like solar panels and steel-making, has to be domestic?

You have said before that the UK is in a relatively good position amongst European countries, with lots of coal and wind, and still some north sea gas, so do we get more of Europe's heavy industry here than you thought previously?

I guess I'm struggling to understand whether you think the roadmap will be different, or just that you have more conviction on it. Or, maybe it's going to be a full-on reversion to the middle ages, and we'll all be eating pease pudding, with small beer and whatever rats we can trap; and only the wealthy will have transport, but that will be on horseback again. Go long buggy-whip manufacturers.

Im off out,but i think the roadmap is good still,but we need more Asian exposure and other emerging markets.Same sectors,just more in those areas.Western leaders are a disaster,relative decline is certain.Not all in,but a pivot.I love that top 10 in Henderson Far East

[Starsend]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I own it,but buying more at the moment,their top 10 is like a modern version of a porn mag when i was 14

The best ones were always found discarded in hedges.

[Noallegiance]

Problems solved.

As you were.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

39 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Do you think there is anything different in kind now that energy prices prices are likely to be high indefinitely? You were always keen on public transport because they hedged their future oil costs (but they are getting taken away from us), and also telecoms as an alternative to travel (and because of the difficulty of competitors building infrastructure). I guess those still remain good bets.

I believe you were looking at Western industry being one of the places where the money gets handed on to next; is that more in doubt if they get persistent increases in input energy costs? (I'm thinking of the chemicals industry, for example, as we have discussed companies like BASF and Synthomer here).

Does it mean we have to expect less international trade, so that more of the supply chains have to be local? Could that mean more food processing in the UK, adapted to local crops? Does it mean more of the green technology supply chain, like solar panels and steel-making, has to be domestic?

You have said before that the UK is in a relatively good position amongst European countries, with lots of coal and wind, and still some north sea gas, so do we get more of Europe's heavy industry here than you thought previously?

I guess I'm struggling to understand whether you think the roadmap will be different, or just that you have more conviction on it. Or, maybe it's going to be a full-on reversion to the middle ages, and we'll all be eating pease pudding, with small beer and whatever rats we can trap; and only the wealthy will have transport, but that will be on horseback again. Go long buggy-whip manufacturers.

Sedan chairs for the rich, sedan chair carrying jobs for the poor. Artisanal sedan chair manufacturing jobs for the middle.

Sedan chair racing for the playboy rich.

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

 

Henderson Asian Income Investment Trust.I love their top 10,oil,materials telcos in Asia

	% of Fund
Sinopec	4.34
China National Building Material	3.82
Rio Tinto	3.82
Macquarie Group	3.75
BHP Group	3.63
Samsung Electronics	3.49
Santos	3.44
Macquarie Korea Infrastructure Fund	3.43
Telkom Indonesia Persero	3.26
Digital Telecommunications Infrastructure Fund Inc THB

This one, presumably

https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/product/henderson-far-east-income-limited/

Currently trading at a 3% premium (over what the portfolio would cost if you bought them individially), is that a bit steep I wonder?

I suppose it depends to what extent you feel you're buying the portfolio [specific exposure to those sectors and markets] vs the investment management. Also, if you bought the portfolio individually you'd be racking up fees that might offset the premium to some extent.

Historical premium/discount can be seen here:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/henderson-far-east-income-ltd-ord-npv/share-charts

[honkydonkey]

21 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

This one, presumably

https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/product/henderson-far-east-income-limited/

Currently trading at a 3% premium (over what the portfolio would cost if you bought them individially), is that a bit steep I wonder?

I suppose it depends to what extent you feel you're buying the portfolio [specific exposure to those sectors and markets] vs the investment management. Also, if you bought the portfolio individually you'd be racking up fees that might offset the premium to some extent.

Historical premium/discount can be seen here:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/henderson-far-east-income-ltd-ord-npv/share-charts

Maybe this one?

Asian Dividend Income Unit Trust - Janus Henderson Investors

5% initial charge and 1.25% ongoing. Bit steep.

[reformed nice guy]

17 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

This one, presumably

https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/product/henderson-far-east-income-limited/

Currently trading at a 3% premium (over what the portfolio would cost if you bought them individially), is that a bit steep I wonder?

I suppose it depends to what extent you feel you're buying the portfolio [specific exposure to those sectors and markets] vs the investment management. Also, if you bought the portfolio individually you'd be racking up fees that might offset the premium to some extent.

Historical premium/discount can be seen here:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/henderson-far-east-income-ltd-ord-npv/share-charts

The ex-dividend date is 28th July. Dividend is 6p which is about 2.1% so that brings down the premium to 0.9% if you take it into account.

There are also big arguments over how you judge the true value of the underlying assets. Ask Neil Woodford!

[ThoughtCriminal]

Am I right in thinking most on here have their SIPP with AJ BELL? They seem to be one of the best for charges that I've seen.

 

I'm helping my sister set up a SIPP as she's finally decided decided she's had enough of pissing money into the tax pot.

 

Any tips would be gratefully received.

[sancho panza]

On 27/06/2022 at 06:52, ThoughtCriminal said:

The cars are even worse. Nothing is moving, even at heavy reduction.

 

I have a lot of friends and acquaintances in the car game and they're saying the same. I'm seeing stuff at prices that would have had your hand snapped off a year ago, now won't budge.

Is there any section that's doing worse eg SUV's? I'm in the market for one of those fingers crossed.Presume small cars are holding up well.

luxury xcars?

I'd imagine the used car market is extrememly sensitive to the economy and the mood,much like barbers who apparently are samong the first to see recessions coming.

 

On 27/06/2022 at 09:59, DurhamBorn said:

Its the biggest policy error i have seen from government since Suez.Sounds crazy,but they are destroying the reason to work for masses of people.Or the reason to work over say 12 to 18 hours before bennie clawback kicks in.

The BOE has monetised almost the entire working age welfare budget for 10 years ,so every single bennie is inflation on a worker on top of tax increases.

Il repeat,3 retired coppers,1 retired council worker,1 retired social worker,3 bennie families in my close all getting 10% increases for sitting at home doing nothing.8 working families getting around 3% for working 80 hours between them in some cases.Boris thinks it isnt inflationary.

Devastating when you put it like that.I've noticed at work of late (NHS )that a lot of the youngsters who are on sub £20k working nights/weekends, are living in HMO's/flat shares etc have a much harder attitude towards nbenefits than some of their older ,better paid peers(like my self).They see it right there,every shift,people who could work but dont' having a nice life,car,flat/hosue,kids,stuff they can't see themselves affording.

Don't get me wrong,life as a single person on benefitrs isn't great but for thsoe that work the system sensibly,then 16 horsu plus time with the littlies beats grafting 80 horus a week between two of you trying to raise kids

On 26/06/2022 at 23:59, M S E Refugee said:

I am selling some Gold this week to buy more Silver seeing as the Gold/Silver ratio is over 85.

I was thinking about selling Silver for Gold when it goes down at around 50 to 1.

GS ratio has made some geat calls bottoming near the peak in gold both 1980 and 2011.I need to do more research but what you suggest makes sense.

identifying the tops and bottoms within a month or two presents a challenge.

ref your next psot,I'm hoping to do some research into thsi wed/thu when I have sometime sans kids,I'll post up what I find.Noone's ever 'jsut ' anything in my eyes.I was a psoty in my twenties for a year between trips abraod,fittest I've ever been.Met some very bright people doing that job who jsut ended up doing it because...wel they jsut ended up doing it.

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Am I right in thinking most on here have their SIPP with AJ BELL? They seem to be one of the best for charges that I've seen.

 

I'm helping my sister set up a SIPP as she's finally decided decided she's had enough of pissing money into the tax pot.

 

Any tips would be gratefully received.

So she's going to piss it into the city of london.

[ThoughtCriminal]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

So she's going to piss it into the city of london.

lol 

 

Well I'll be buying the shares for her so on my head be it.

 

Given the choice of funding asylum seekers and trannies or having an educated gamble, think I'll take the latter.

 

 

 

 

[MrXxxx]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Well I'll be buying the shares for her so on my head be it.

Oh dear...so you appreciate if they 'ten bag' it would have been her brilliant idea, and if they 'sink to the bottom' its down to my idiot brother!