Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

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18 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Covid reopening and the fed sticking to its plan for the first rate rise in March, rather than the rumoured emergency January one.

I am considering putting this year's ISA money in an S&P500 ETF, the question is today or Monday? 

Nope can’t see it happening.

Doesn’t matter if the January rise comes now or in March. It’s coming regardless, inflation is everywhere for everyone to see and sentiment is key. Covid ending and the economy resuming will only lay bare the economic aftermath in plain sight.

The only thing that can save it now is the Fed coming to the rescue with more QE.

The expectation of the crash of the super bubble is now all over the media which may well lead to self-fulfilling prophecy. The general masses don’t know that includes their house prices yet.

I think we are very near ladies and gentlemen. The magnus kahuna could well be on the way.

[Barnsey]

33 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Saw this on ZH and thought of Shvets:

https://www.wired.com/story/rent-robot-worker-less-paying-human/

Summary if you can't be bothered to click the link: companies are now offering robots on a PAYG basis at $8/hour (compared to $15/hour for the replaced worker in one example).

Question is when the adoption of automation becomes widespread enough to affect the macro picture. Maybe we're a cycle early for the final Marxist crisis of capitalism, but exponentials and all that.

In the meantime, this might start to do weird things with wage inflation. You can see how the wages for jobs that can be automated today are going to end up capped by the cost of capital if it's just a case of picking up the phone to your friendly PAYG robotics company, especially if the employer is already being lightly roasted by labour shortages.

Funny how the likes of Aldi and Tesco have just announced their first check out free stores isn't it? And we've also got the 4 day week being trialled across numerous companies, many as little as a couple years ago thought that was a pipe dream.

[JimmyTheBruce]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I was at boarding school with some old money types and they were lovely people with their feet on planet earth.

Boarding school Sancho!? And there was me thinking you were a salt of the earth type 

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12 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Funny how the likes of Aldi and Tesco have just announced their first check out free stores isn't it? And we've also got the 4 day week being trialled across numerous companies, many as little as a couple years ago thought that was a pipe dream.

I may be a month or so out on the melt up and BK etc but I’m sticking with my original timeline

 

[jamtomorrow]

14 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Funny how the likes of Aldi and Tesco have just announced their first check out free stores isn't it? And we've also got the 4 day week being trialled across numerous companies, many as little as a couple years ago thought that was a pipe dream.

Good point. Makes me wonder how long before they take a serious crack at automating shelf stacking

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5 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Good point. Makes me wonder how long before they take a serious crack at automating shelf stacking

Why would you need anyone to stack shelves, it’s just soooo pre 2020 

 

[CannonFodder]

6 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Goid point. Makes me wonder how long before they take a serious crack at automating shelf stacking

I feel a store needs a certain amount of humans to stop theft etc

Friend of mine works in a supermarket, they have issues with drunks opening bottles in shop and drinking there or pouring contents into a water bottle.

I see newer security tags enclose the entire top of the bottle rather than just encircle the neck.

[Castlevania]

17 hours ago, Loki said:

In fairness to HL it was effortless, they just appeared in my shares list, and then just as effortlessly turned red

They seemed to appear down 50%. Not really sure what to do with them. They’re only worth a few hundred, so seems a bit pointless to sell but at the same time not really sure if I want to buy more to have a meaningful amount.

[Innkeeper]

14 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Good point. Makes me wonder how long before they take a serious crack at automating shelf stacking

Putting robots down the aisles alongside customers seems unlikely (witness the appearance of a forklift in DIY stores where aisles are closed and deafening beeping ensues) so either 24 hour operations go, or the supermarket gets redesigned to accommodate robots loading from separate aisles.  Could happen.

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4 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

I feel a store needs a certain amount of humans to stop theft etc

Friend of mine works in a supermarket, they have issues with drunks opening bottles in shop and drinking there or pouring contents into a water bottle.

I see newer security tags enclose the entire top of the bottle rather than just encircle the neck.

Again solved with Digital ID. You’re walking out with the goods without any interaction anyway.

 

[Castlevania]

14 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Why bother? 0% inflation on the cost of my iptv subscription for 12month. Still £50 a year, all the sky channels including ppv plus all the movies / series you want ect

That’s £50 to a Bulgarian gangster

[CannonFodder]

10 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Again solved with Digital ID. You’re walking out with the goods without any interaction anyway.

 

So in the image above there is a lady hovering by the barrier watching people scan in. Else some drunk would vault it who isnt signed up.

I still remain of the opinion that as staff goes down, theft goes up.

A truely automated shop would have folk in ski masks running in and out helping themselves.

Its interesting tech and will automate some jobs but there are things robots cant do. Lost child. Vomit in isle 3. Power cut.

[Innkeeper]

10 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

So in the image above there is a lady hovering by the barrier watching people scan in. Else some drunk would vault it who isnt signed up.

I still remain of the opinion that as staff goes down, theft goes up.

A truely automated shop would have folk in ski masks running in and out helping themselves.

Its interesting tech and will automate some jobs but there are things robots cant do. Lost child. Vomit in isle 3. Power cut.

I’ve come to the view that supermarkets seem disinterested in shoplifting (and theft via self service tills) and must view it as a price of doing business.   Receipts for your purchases are now only given on request so how the security guy is meant to know whether you’ve paid, I don’t know.  

Just like the banks and £100 contactless.  They know they’ll have to pay back millions on stolen card purchases but they must see that as worthwhile to prise us away from using cash.

[Libspero]

45 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Good point. Makes me wonder how long before they take a serious crack at automating shelf stacking

Aldi and Lidl almost did away with it in the early days by leaving product in the boxes it was supplied in.  Customers would then take the empty boxes to carry their groceries home.  So all the staff had to do was throw the occasional new box on the shelf.

No unboxing,  no facing up, no waste.

Smart.

[CannonFodder]

https://www.nfcw.com/2019/02/15/361650/walmart-cancelled-in-aisle-self-checkout-project-due-to-high-levels-of-shopper-theft/

There comes a point though. In a really tough downturn, there could be a wave of shops discontinuing things.

If people are in a position that they need to do things they wouldnt normally do to feed their families, I can this retail strategy going.

[Innkeeper]

4 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Aldi and Lidl almost did away with it in the early days by leaving product in the boxes it was supplied in.  Customers would then take the empty boxes to carry their groceries home.  So all the staff had to do was throw the occasional new box on the shelf.

No unboxing,  no facing up, no waste.

Smart.

Kwik Save did that as well in the 70s.  Don’t know why they didn’t survive.

[Ash4781b]

As expected there’s early outrage on forums regarding the telecoms utility inflation busting contracts out there with consumers. I’ve got one myself but those are the terms and pretty much common across sector. We’ll see if the media push it or someone like Martin Lewis gets involved. The gov’ will not want to highlight itself setting up rise in National insurance. Finance industry is quiet as in all the financial models i understood lenders should be raising their prices too to get in on the party!

[Ash4781b]

44 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Again solved with Digital ID. You’re walking out with the goods without any interaction anyway.

 

Tesco do seem to be moving further in the tracking direction  as have completely reworked their Clubcard. Also at Xmas were happy to get an advert agency to make and sign off an advert with Santa having a tracking ID. I presume they’ve got a strategist / advice that has flagged all this tracking up?

[BurntBread]

24 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

So in the image above there is a lady hovering by the barrier watching people scan in. Else some drunk would vault it who isnt signed up.

I still remain of the opinion that as staff goes down, theft goes up.

A truely automated shop would have folk in ski masks running in and out helping themselves.

Its interesting tech and will automate some jobs but there are things robots cant do. Lost child. Vomit in isle 3. Power cut.

If you are a big FMCG manufacturer, supplying supermarkets, then I believe you pay a number of things:

There is a charge for putting your products on the shelf. If you want them put on a wide aisle, or put at eye-level, rather than near the ground, there is an extra charge. If you want an end-of-aisle display, then you not only have to set it up and clear it away at the end of the promotion, but you have to pay an extra fee for the position, even though the supermarket gets more sales because of your advertising efforts.

If one of your products is defective (e.g. broken top to an aerosol), you will be charged a fine by the supermarket. I think it was something like £5 per item 20 years ago. If a product is returned to the supermarket, and you want to see it, to figure out what was wrong, there will be another charge (I can't remember the amount, but maybe £50 per item).

Theft of items from the shelves is called "product shrinkage" in the business, and the supermarket charges the FMCG manufacturer for it (maybe not the whole cost, but there is a charge). Supermarkets like there to be a certain amount of product shrinkage, because it shows which lines are attractive to consumers.

As @Innkeeper says, I'm sure it will be a completely commercial decision whether the losses from theft outweigh the savings on wages. I also like @CannonFodder's point that these calculations are likely to be done with some assumptions about levels of theft, which could be wildly inaccurate if the economy tanks. Supermarkets are not omniscient, and can make mistakes. I remember talking to an Australian guy about 25 years ago, who was recounting how a Japanese retailer had set up in Sidney, and didn't last very long, because they assumed (as would be correct in Japan) that people would not steal unattended things.

[Barnsey]

52 minutes ago, Innkeeper said:

Putting robots down the aisles alongside customers seems unlikely (witness the appearance of a forklift in DIY stores where aisles are closed and deafening beeping ensues) so either 24 hour operations go, or the supermarket gets redesigned to accommodate robots loading from separate aisles.  Could happen.

Some kind of conveyor system built behind the shelves would be very doable, distributing items from back of house throughout the store, or from above shop level. Basically how automated distribution warehouses now work.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

I feel a store needs a certain amount of humans to stop theft etc

Friend of mine works in a supermarket, they have issues with drunks opening bottles in shop and drinking there or pouring contents into a water bottle.

I see newer security tags enclose the entire top of the bottle rather than just encircle the neck.

Pretty sure you need to "scan in" to enter, unless you barge through with someone else

[Lightscribe]

47 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

So in the image above there is a lady hovering by the barrier watching people scan in. Else some drunk would vault it who isnt signed up.

I still remain of the opinion that as staff goes down, theft goes up.

A truely automated shop would have folk in ski masks running in and out helping themselves.

Its interesting tech and will automate some jobs but there are things robots cant do. Lost child. Vomit in isle 3. Power cut.

Yes they’ll be skeleton staff at first but digital ID solves all of that eventually. Tesco will know who the people are in their store via biometrics.

In a UBI/social credit score future that will be automatically deducted/penalised accordingly. 

Lost kids, will be alerted and tracked on parents/authorities digital devices etc.

Most new mobile phones now have NPUs (neural processing unit) embedded in their chipsets. Peoples phones will be working providing information (such as facial ID and location tracking of people in the background when the user is oblivious taking a picture etc) to the wider network together with AI learning without them having a clue.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_learning_processor

[Axeman123]

24 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Aldi and Lidl almost did away with it in the early days by leaving product in the boxes it was supplied in.

And yet several of their new stores near me are far more like a tesco: fresh instore bakery, the nicer products faced up on shelves, less of a warehouse feel with more wasted floorspace etc. Clearly that is where the money and scope for expansion is.

[feed]

You're forgetting about theft by staff.  I'm sure studies out there show the majority of shrinkage is employee related.  

A bar manager i know is delighted by the increase in the use of cards in his bar.  The chance that a customer is accidentally given the wrong change is greatly reduced if they're not given change at all.

But either way so long as business owners, the wealthy and powerful increasingly human (employees) as liabilities rather than assets, the direction of travel is one way.

[CannonFodder]

4 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Pretty sure you need to "scan in" to enter, unless you barge through with someone else

I tailgate into my client.s offices all the time, its a guilty pleasure of mine.

1. It amuses me to see how easy it is, its very easy

2. I cant be faffed with signing in and then waiting while they try and find my host who.s likely in another meeting. Sometimes this can take 20 minutes and i.ld rather be working at a desk or meeting room table.