Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

4 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Which platform do you use for gcl and sprott--is it HL?

Before I became fat and old and grey I actually had invested in quite a lot of uranium over a decade ago during a previous bull.

I had  come to the conclusion that for meaningful carbon reduction that there was nowhere to go other than nuclear. Kyoto treaty was 1997 lol, 25 years now of very little. I failed to realise the dithering and the action of the powers that be. Old Grey and fat is better than young and broke

it was one of my worst investing disasters reminded me of the saying that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain site solvent.

I feel uranium is a very harder commodity to time, it runs up almost as a meme with lots of enthusiasm that over time dwindles and fades as very few new plants are built, very sentiment driven commodity. 

I will buy more if i have spare capital and it is low price but I dont think I will ever buy expecting short to medium term movement again.

I learnt a lot from that disaster of mine 

A useful warning.  I use a few brokers but would only use HL for GBP stuff given the forex charges.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

David Hunter.s thesis has gotten interesting tonight, reckons Fed mqy not tighten next week as bond rates are tightening in themselves.

Thinks powell may not do anything in face of bond rates. Indicates powell changing track will start melt up.

Been commodity movement this week which could be market having similar sniffs.

So melt up on Wednesday then ?

Looking at some charts, I'm wondering how much further some bond prices have to fall on this round.  Any particular commodities?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I worked on the milk between 14 and 16,hard work but loved it

That was the top job in my day.  Very hard to get but real money.  

[Lightscribe]

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/nasdaq-plunge-why-wall-streets-tech-index-has-now-entered-correction-territory-12520961
 

Look out Belloooooooooow….

 

 

[Tingles]

11 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/nasdaq-plunge-why-wall-streets-tech-index-has-now-entered-correction-territory-12520961
 

Look out Belloooooooooow….

Well, Dave H did say....

[Lightscribe]

10 minutes ago, Tingles said:

Well, Dave H did say....

Didn’t he say we’d have a pull back before melt up? I can’t see his prediction of SP500 to 6000 coming to fruition without masses more QE. 
IR rates are rising, banks are tightening (for now), FAANGs/tech peaked in November FFS. I can’t see where this melt up will be coming from. To me it looks like the tables have started to turn.

[CannonFodder]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

A useful warning.  I use a few brokers but would only use HL for GBP stuff given the forex charges.

Who do you use for forex charges then out of curiousity?, hl is 1% which seems pretty standard for the bigger platforms

[Heart's Ease]

13 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's the 3K for ?

Insurance, storage, MOT ?

I dont know anyone with a motorhome but a few with caravans.  These seem a more sensible approach if you really have the desire to live like a pikey for 2 weeks out the year.

Is the motorhome thing a snobberty/boomer thing ?  For 3K a year I can drive and stay in a lot of premier inns.

£3k = insurance, habitation check, mot, service, storage - and that's before you need to get anything fixed.

I'd say in the past it was a lot of public sector pension lump sums fueling the £40k top of the range motorhomes.

Agree on the Premier Inn comment, and @With a crooked smilecomment about the bigger you go, the more they sit not being used, but in the Before Times, being retired meant many overwintering in Spain/Portugal/Morocco, back to UK for a few weeks, then back out to Germany in April and down to Croatia/Greece until the Scandinavians arrived in July and were happy to pay 80€ to pitch on a roundabout.  The canny Brits would pay 1 or 2€ to stay on an Aire or Stellplatz, and cheaper out of season site fees. 

[nirvana]

[geordie_lurch]

23 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

£3k = insurance, habitation check, mot, service, storage - and that's before you need to get anything fixed.

I'm sorry that figure is just nonsense. Storage fees at an insurance approved would be £150 per month max and most only use them over winter as they want to actually use them over summer.

MOTs are standard prices unless you have one over 3500kg and the same as servicing them.

Habitation checks are usually only done when buying or selling by most people but if not then £100 max.

Finally the people who can afford these motorhomes will usually be over 40 and probably have lots of no claims so given all that I'd say you are looking at around £1500 per year max

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

Who do you use for forex charges then out of curiousity?, hl is 1% which seems pretty standard for the bigger platforms

II is better.  Not a lower charge (I think but maybe so if a large conversion) but you can hold multiple currencies so only one charge (not there and back).  But no good for an ISA as that's not allowed.   Saxo seems to have a lower rate but ig SIPP/ISA not an issue then IB is the daddy for costs.

[CannonFodder]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

II. Not a lower charge but I can hold multiple currencies so only one charge (not there and back).  But no good for an ISA as that's not allowed.  If SIPP/ISA not an issue then IB is the daddy for costs.

Thanks, i.ll have a look at them 

Everything i have is currently Sipp and isa though which limits me a lot in terms of forex.

Edit- ib very interesting, will have to think about having some  capital out of isa but will need to be careful about tax thresholds 

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Loki said:

Generation 1 gets a free house and bennies. 

Generation 2 gets a free house and bennies. 

Generation 3 gets a free house and bennies. 

Generation 4 gets ????????????????????????

Generation 4 gets lucky  and become the 'new' Middle class...

....well for as long as they can spend it, and then they are back on the bennies and demanding a council house.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/nasdaq-plunge-why-wall-streets-tech-index-has-now-entered-correction-territory-12520961
.....

Can you hear it?  There, there it is.  The sound.  That's the msm panting and wheezing as they try to catch up.  Thiers must be the longest echo in the history of the world!  Indeed, maybe time to buy back in!  Macro, fundamental, technical.  And none of it involves them!

[Harley]

19 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Thanks, i.ll have a look at them 

Everything i have is currently Sipp and isa though which limits me a lot in terms of forex.

Edit- ib very interesting, will have to think about having some  capital out of isa but will need to be careful about tax thresholds 

Degiro might also be worth a look if happy to go continental as it has the next best market access (or ties with Saxo) and can be quite cheap.  Indeed it has some smaller markets IB doesn't.  IB has huge professional level functionality but at the cost of being less friendly to use (mitigated a bit by not using their Traders Workstation).  

BTW:  As a fellow sort of "bottom feeder" (if we can call ourselves that), this weeks screen of oversold companies with a yield over 3% is (again) all Japanese and HK stocks, this time with a large number of REITs!  The sub 3% yield ones are interesting with a few large tech names.  Maybe that'll be in the msm in three months time too! 

[kibuc]

OUCH!

Apologies, don't know how to resize this bastard.

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Generation 4 gets lucky  and become the 'new' Middle class...

....well for as long as they can spend it, and then they are back on the bennies and demanding a council house.

Nah, trust the plan....

[jamtomorrow]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/nasdaq-plunge-why-wall-streets-tech-index-has-now-entered-correction-territory-12520961
 

Look out Belloooooooooow….

 

 

Christ I hope Our Dave knows what he's doing calling for this melt-up. Or can disappear quickly if needed. Talk about nailing your balls to the mast ...

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, kibuc said:

OUCH!

Apologies, don't know how to resize this bastard.

Not advice, DYOR, etc but looks rough out there this morning with bonds slightly on the up versus my value stocks.  BTC looks like it wants to continue lower longer term and PMs are thinking about things!  But some good longer term buy signals across the patch popping up - pickers market inbound?

[geordie_lurch]

Just seen this via @norfolkhorn in another thread on and thought it worth posting here: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10425655/Serbia-revokes-Australian-companys-mining-licences-days-Novak-Djokovic-deported.html

Serbia REVOKES Australian mining giant Rio Tinto's licences - just days after tennis star Novak Djokovic was deported and relations turned sour

• Serbia has revoked Rio Tinto's lithium mining licences after Novak Djokovic saga
• This occurred a week after Immigration Minister Alex Hawke cancelled his visa
• Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic agreed with green groups against project

Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said her government agreed with calls from green groups to stop the $US2.4billion ($A3.3billion) Jadar lithium project which, if completed, would have made Rio a top 10 producer of lithium - an essential mineral for solar and electric car batteries.

'All decisions and all licences have been annulled,' she said. 

'As far as project Jadar is concerned, this is an end.'

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Christ I hope Our Dave knows what he's doing calling for this melt-up. Or can disappear quickly if needed. Talk about nailing your balls to the mast ...

DYOR, etc but IMO he may be right longer term but maybe some more downside to clear things out first like he says.  That early Jan22 bounce (tax loss buy backs?) did some technical damage and we've sliced through some potential supports.  Daily rallies always likely though.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Didn’t he say we’d have a pull back before melt up? I can’t see his prediction of SP500 to 6000 coming to fruition without masses more QE. 
IR rates are rising, banks are tightening (for now), FAANGs/tech peaked in November FFS. I can’t see where this melt up will be coming from. To me it looks like the tables have started to turn.

Only if we get end game money printing which IMO is highly likely but which will irredeemably change the financial and social landscape and our financial yardsticks and reference points.  That is the road we're on and now too far down.  Trust the plan because that is what it is!

[M S E Refugee]

8 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Just seen this via @norfolkhorn in another thread on here and thought it worth posting here: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10425655/Serbia-revokes-Australian-companys-mining-licences-days-Novak-Djokovic-deported.html

Serbia REVOKES Australian mining giant Rio Tinto's licences - just days after tennis star Novak Djokovic was deported and relations turned sour

• Serbia has revoked Rio Tinto's lithium mining licences after Novak Djokovic saga
• This occurred a week after Immigration Minister Alex Hawke cancelled his visa
• Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic agreed with green groups against project

Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said her government agreed with calls from green groups to stop the $US2.4billion ($A3.3billion) Jadar lithium project which, if completed, would have made Rio a top 10 producer of lithium - an essential mineral for solar and electric car batteries.

'All decisions and all licences have been annulled,' she said. 

'As far as project Jadar is concerned, this is an end.'

It takes a brave or foolish person to humiliate the Serbs.

Alex Hawke may be looking over his shoulder for a while.

[wherebee]

30 minutes ago, Harley said:

Not advice, DYOR, etc but looks rough out there this morning with bonds slightly on the up versus my value stocks.  BTC looks like it wants to continue lower longer term and PMs are thinking about things!  But some good longer term buy signals across the patch popping up - pickers market inbound?

ouch!  but as DB says, if the oilies are a ten year hold, they are a ten year hold.  Not sure I am brave enough to sell and try to time back in, given last time with XOM I just sneaked it through to make 500 bucks on 14000, and if I had missed the window I would have been watching it all run away upwards again...

 

[Noallegiance]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Notice the term used,

Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said the backing was "reindustrialisation".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60066432

Am I being too simplistic?

"Received funding" = taxpayer borrowing again. Not private enterprise.

If it was a good idea, surely it wouldn't need MORE public borrowing. Or is this the beginnings of government pumping liquidity direct to industry? Presumably this is happening via the new infrastructure bank.