Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[moneyscam]

1 minute ago, WICAO said:

I think there may be some nuances around what the wrapper providers allow as opposed to the actual buying of the UK listed stocks.  I seem to recall with one of my GIA's I was allowed to buy and sell freely within the wrapper but what I wasn't allowed to do was add new money to the account for investment but it was country of residence dependent.  DYOR of course.

Sorry should have been more specific, my purchases / sales weren't in any specific wrappers, just a plain vanilla broker custody account. Wrappers like SIPP's etc I would imagine might have more restrictions because of UK taxman contribution in your and @JREWING's case.

[RickyBacker]

Just jumping into this conversation to add that I'm NON-UK resident but still actively buy and sell UK shares through an online broker. I assumed that I could 'earn' up to the tax free limit (about 12K I think) before having to fill in any forms or declare anything? If any of you experts could comment if I'm ok to do this or if I need to contact HMRC it would be greatly appreciated!
PS: A few months ago my broker requested me to complete a CRS form which I duly completed and things have carried on as normal.

[WICAO]

1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

Sorry should have been more specific, my purchases / sales weren't in any specific wrappers, just a plain vanilla broker custody account. Wrappers like SIPP's etc I would imagine might have more restrictions because of UK taxman contribution in your and @JREWING's case.

This was just a general GIA.  It pays to DYOR before leaving the country so that one can position themselves appropriately.  We did exactly that and definitely did a few things before we left.

[Castlevania]

7 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Sorry should have been more specific, my purchases / sales weren't in any specific wrappers, just a plain vanilla broker custody account. Wrappers like SIPP's etc I would imagine might have more restrictions because of UK taxman contribution in your and @JREWING's case.

There are no restrictions on what you can buy or sell. What you can’t do (or shouldn’t do) is contribute new money into an ISA or pay more than £3,600 into a SIPP.

[CannonFodder]

6 hours ago, RickyBacker said:

Just jumping into this conversation to add that I'm NON-UK resident but still actively buy and sell UK shares through an online broker. I assumed that I could 'earn' up to the tax free limit (about 12K I think) before having to fill in any forms or declare anything? If any of you experts could comment if I'm ok to do this or if I need to contact HMRC it would be greatly appreciated!
PS: A few months ago my broker requested me to complete a CRS form which I duly completed and things have carried on as normal.

 

You may likely need to declare this income to the tax authorities of the country where you are resident

As a non resident, you immediately  lose the 12k personal allowance but can reclaim it with a R43 form from hrmc in certain circumstances .

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-claim-to-personal-allowances-and-tax-repayment-by-an-individual-not-resident-in-the-uk-r43

You really need professional advice here.  It depends on tax treaties between the two countries 

 

[Castlevania]

6 hours ago, RickyBacker said:

Just jumping into this conversation to add that I'm NON-UK resident but still actively buy and sell UK shares through an online broker. I assumed that I could 'earn' up to the tax free limit (about 12K I think) before having to fill in any forms or declare anything? If any of you experts could comment if I'm ok to do this or if I need to contact HMRC it would be greatly appreciated!
PS: A few months ago my broker requested me to complete a CRS form which I duly completed and things have carried on as normal.

If you’re non U.K. resident then HMRC only care about dividends from U.K. companies and you have the annual £12.5k personal allowance before you need to pay any tax.

Your CGT allowances differ too. HMRC only care about gains made on stocks that you owned before leaving the U.K. and only then if you live abroad for less than 5 years. All the gains roll up into the year you return to the U.K. against the CGT allowance for that year - so only an issue if you made huge gains outside a tax wrapper and were outside the U.K. for less than 5 years.

 

[Plan-b]

The BOE still don't believe it..

"Inflation in the UK remains a temporary phenomenon, according to Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, although the ongoing energy bills crisis poses a genuine concern to consumers.

 

In a Treasury Committee meeting held today (19 January), Bank of England officials were questioned about the impact of inflation and interest rates on the nation's financial stability."

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4043555/energy-prices-labour-supply-threaten-financial-stability-bank-england-governor

[MrXxxx]

20 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

I agree - it reads as very Prime Ministerial to me.

Hancock, PM?...please!...I have heard of 'Scraping the barrel' but that would be chiselling chunks off the bottom!

[Bricormortis]

I made 1200 quid outside of a tax wrapper on HL. My income is below the tax threshold, Should I declare it to HMRC ?

 

 

[CannonFodder]

7 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

I made 1200 quid outside of a tax wrapper on HL. My income is below the tax threshold, Should I declare it to HMRC ?

 

 

No. Even if above the tax threshold, you get 2k dividend and 10k capital gains before u need to do anything 

Assuming this is a 100 % uk tax situation

Generally one only declares taxable income

You can also use your unused allowance towards dividends but if taxable dividends exceed 10k you need to fill out self assessment.

 

[MrXxxx]

19 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

I would suggest that this is a result of a failure of education.

Entirely deliberate, of course.

Agree, just look at the approach of @sancho panza above with the 'Young Panza's'...this economic/financial education should be taught as part of the National Curriculum but it isn't...ever wondered why?!

[MrXxxx]

23 hours ago, spygirl said:

Cost of living: 'I only put heating on when my grandkids visit'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59987507

Money has been so tight for grandmother Judith Criddle, she only ever puts her heating on when her six grandchildren visit - despite the cold weather.

Even then, Judith can only afford to put it on for an hour so she wraps her grandchildren in a blanket on the sofa with hot water bottles to keep warm.

"To them it's a movie night, cuddling in to nan - but to me, I'm doing it to save the money," said the 51-year-old.

Judith is one of the millions affected by the UK's cost of living crisis.

Prices are rising at the fastest rate in more than 10 years and one think tank has warned it could get worse with predictions that higher energy bills, stagnant wages and tax rises could leave households with an extra £1,200-a-year hit to their incomes.

Judith, who is on universal credit, said she was trying to cut back on using energy as much as she can, but "if it goes up any more I can't afford to live".

She coudl go out and get a FT job - or 2 -  FFS. Shes almost 20 years before she can reitre.

 

They had this woman on. She had a Caribbean accent - 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59980760

Every night, Thelma Spalding goes round her house trying to switch off every appliance.

It's not an easy feat for the 54-year old, who relies on carers and walks with a stick.

But she's following the advice given to her by her energy company as she desperately tries to keep her fuel bills down.

Thelma had to leave her job as an NHS support worker a year ago after being assaulted at work. Since then, her monthly gas and electricity bill has shot up from £44 to £99, meaning she can afford to heat only one room.

She has burns on her arms from trying to keep her wood burner going and has started using food banks to make ends meet.

She says: "I live in this one room. There's only me and the dogs, so why am I being charged this much for electricity and gas?

"In bed you're so cold that it's like you're sleeping outside. My carer gets me dressed and I wear two pairs of leggings, a pair of trousers, a vest, a T-shirt and a dress - and I'm in the house. It's so cold in the kitchen and the bathroom."

 

She should try burning some of the losing scratch cards that she has to keep warm; yes the one's SHE bought with MY taxes...this is the problem with the UK, we have bred a generation [and their offspring] with a sense of entitlement; chimes very much with the current discussion on student loans as well.

[MrXxxx]

14 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Tory HQ preparing for BJ.s future?

No, the hatchet is reserved for Whitty! :-)))

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Our inflation now isnt just about too much printed money,its about the fact half the population now chooses to do nothing or little for the free money.

So basically the 'Capital' in the system increase yet the GDP reduces, thus causing an increase in inflation?

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, JREWING said:

I was guessing that having a Australian IP address then the HL portal would be view only

Could you not get around this with a VPN?

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Why not? You can perfectly legally whether an individual or corporate buy UK listed stocks wherever you live unless the country you live in has a specific prohibition (very rare).

Not within an ISA though!

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So basically the 'Capital' in the system increase yet the GDP reduces, thus causing an increase in inflation?

Liquidity/currency increases,capital doesnt.Not invested capital.Inflation comes when the liquidity increases faster than productivity and investment growth and has many causes,in the UK bennies are the biggest after BOE monetizing government debt.

[Lightscribe]

38 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

She should try burning some of the losing scratch cards that she has to keep warm; yes the one's SHE bought with MY taxes...this is the problem with the UK, we have bred a generation [and their offspring] with a sense of entitlement; chimes very much with the current discussion on student loans as well.

I would like to counter that point, ‘entitled’ is a sweeping generalisation which cannot be applied to such a broad spectrum.

This has been a long drag of a 40 year disinflation cycle. It has caused gulfs of inequality.

We have some elderly living entirely and dependent on state pension and council rented accommodation. They’re in no way the same bracket as elderly boomers, getting warm home discount and a golden private pension (of which some retired at 50), multi-assets etc which circumstances over a particular timeframe have enabled (famously the likes of Peter Stringfellow trying to give his warm home discount back but failing)

We have had council house millionaires, that have taken advantage of the ‘right to buy’ brought in by Thatcher and desolated the countries social housing stock into private ownership (which was intended). On top of that we have had a benefit system that has caused a generational alternative to work and it’s been encouraged (grandma’s, mums passing to daughters the incentive as a way of life instead of work). 

We have a broken housing market relying on this cycle that has enabled ever more leeches going up the chain feeding off those below.
The TV/media fuels this greed, ‘bricks and mortar’ can only go up etc. This has caused the greatest property bubble of all time, way beyond affordability, or salary ratios. The resounding crash will bankrupt hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

A young working family living off their own backs has in no way any sense of entitlement compared to any of the above, facing 40 year mortgages, rising bills, no reachable pension and possible indebtedness for the rest of their lives.

If I was a surgeon/doctor and had a massive student loan facing either 30 years of 9% above threshold deductions or 10% RPI to try and actually pay off the loan, I would be leaving the country instead.

There is no just ‘pull your socks up’ answer of years ago, the system has long been broken. The above economic  circumstances will most likely never be repeated again in history. The unwinding of this cycle will cause lasting devastation. 

[HousePriceMania]

Has anyone considered human nature w.r.t. the current inflation.

Since the emergence of social media there has been no inflation....given how connected people are and how quickly news/panic can spread, has anyone considered unwarranted mass hysteria panic with people buying anything/everything ?

 

[geordie_lurch]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Has anyone considered human nature w.r.t. the current inflation.

Since the emergence of social media there has been no inflation....given how connected people are and how quickly news/panic can spread, has anyone considered unwarranted mass hysteria panic with people buying anything/everything ?
 

Well you only have to go back to the first lockdown and people panic buying toilet rolls to see how likely it will be for the masses to actually buy anything actually useful

To be fair though a lot of people did buy self sufficient micro accommodation i.e. camper vans and motorhomes which caused a massive surge in their prices and it will be interesting to see how the price of these goes in 2022.

[CannonFodder]

Just now, HousePriceMania said:

Has anyone considered human nature w.r.t. the current inflation.

Since the emergence of social media there has been no inflation....given how connected people are and how quickly news/panic can spread, has anyone considered unwarranted mass hysteria panic with people buying anything/everything ?

 

I think with social media sentiment will change very quickly 

In 1929 things took time, time to happen, time to be printed in newspaper, time to be bought and read, time to go to bank next day to sell shares. Time to tell friends at tedious middle class party

Today everything is instant, flash crash, flash melt up. Algogithims stop loss, instant news notifications. Tweeting i.ve sold out or I bought 

IT will whipsaw, gov hold crisis talks, brokers without direct access wont get live prices or will able ti deal due to volatility, people will panic deal.

Have a read of popular delusions and madness of crowds if not already then transpose the information age on it

 

[MithrilVest]

Just now, CannonFodder said:

I think with social media sentiment will change very quickly 

In 1929 things took time, time to happen, time to be printed in newspaper, time to be bought and read, time to go to bank next day to sell shares. Time to tell friends at tedious middle class party

Today everything is instant, flash crash, flash melt up. Algogithims stop loss, instant news notifications. Tweeting i.ve sold out or I bought 

IT will whipsaw, gov hold crisis talks, brokers without direct access wont get live prices or will able ti deal due to volatility, people will panic deal.

Have a read of popular delusions and madness of crowds if not already then transpose the information age on it

 

I agree.

Can't help but think the response to Covid would be very different if it had occurred 30 years ago when, for most people, news and information was what they were told at 9pm by the TV and 8am by the paper.

Changes in communication, rolling news and social media in particular means information and news spreads instantly - this gives greater impetus to politicians to be seen to be doing something.

I think it is also a big driver in immigration from third world countries, they have smartphones and the internet and can see our standard of living and get information about being given a house and benefits - their response is entirely logical.

Regarding the original post, I suspect it will amplify people's response - perhaps seeing bulk buying of cheap items when deals are shared, groupthink saying we need to spend less etc.

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, RickyBacker said:

Just jumping into this conversation to add that I'm NON-UK resident but still actively buy and sell UK shares through an online broker. I assumed that I could 'earn' up to the tax free limit (about 12K I think) before having to fill in any forms or declare anything? If any of you experts could comment if I'm ok to do this or if I need to contact HMRC it would be greatly appreciated!
PS: A few months ago my broker requested me to complete a CRS form which I duly completed and things have carried on as normal.

Not  tax specialist by any measure,but my Mum lives in a non UK jurisdiction.She pays the witholding tax on divis in the but that's offset agaisnt the tax where she lives.Otherwise,she's outsdie the jurisdiction of the UK taxman.

All your trading/investing should fall under the jursidiction of the country where your tax resident.

There are a raft of issues between tax residency and domicilie  that is beyond my udnerstnding,so bear that in mind ie that although your tax resdient,you may still be UK domicilied in which casde there may be a liability-I don't know.

There may also be issues as @moneyscam said ref tax wrappers for pensions etc.

SOme guidance on domicile and residency here

https://www.litrg.org.uk/tax-guides/migrants/residence-and-domicile/why-are-residence-and-domicile-important

20 hours ago, moneyscam said:

That tradingview number can't be right and just realised my 4.5% is wrong. Last dividend was 4.105p : multiply by 4 = 16.42p /400p = 4.1%  assuming FX £/$ remains stable - still not bad but this is more about the capital gain for me now unless there is a restoration of the dividend back to historical levels. I think it can reach £6 if our macro call is right and will be selling it there.

I'm of a similar view ref £6.That's my target.When we get there or near I'll reassess as I think we'll be near a broader market top.

Option 1 will be to sell with a view to buying a bigger holding post drop

option 2 keep holdings and jsut hedge hodling with puts

This is the beginning of a multi year bull in energy prices and I think you sell at your peril.Let's jsut remind ourselves what a multi year bull market looks like(and thats before reinvested divis).

Yours truly sold the tech bubble nicely and boutght into tobacco and miners in 1999/2000.SOld the tobacco(mainly gallaher iirc) within a year for 50% gain and the BHP in 2006/7.............live and learn

[Starsend]

12 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

NO need to pay!

 

I abolished the license 23 years ago, I refuse to pay BBC/othershitChannels for their propaganda

 

The BBC should be on "RIP OFF Britain" along with the rip off council tax!

 

Anyways...here's How-to legally avoid paying the license fee:

 

 

I'm in general agreement with him except I see no reason to waste your time filling out forms to declare that you're not doing something. I don't have to fill out a form to declare I'm not using a shotgun. The onus is on them.

I've not had a TV licence for 19 years now. I've kept all the threatening letters, couple of hundred of them. They go in cycles, some of them very intimidating and threatening.

I've seen a licence inspector once. I told him politely I don't watch TV and shut the door.

The best way to deal with them is with a strict no contact rule. Ignore them.

[Bricormortis]

38 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I would like to counter that point, ‘entitled’ is a sweeping generalisation which cannot be applied to such a broad spectrum.

This has been a long drag of a 40 year disinflation cycle. It has caused gulfs of inequality.

We have some elderly living entirely and dependent on state pension and council rented accommodation. They’re in no way the same bracket as elderly boomers, getting warm home discount and a golden private pension (of which some retired at 50), multi-assets etc which circumstances over a particular timeframe have enabled (famously the likes of Peter Stringfellow trying to give his warm home discount back but failing)

We have had council house millionaires, that have taken advantage of the ‘right to buy’ brought in by Thatcher and desolated the countries social housing stock into private ownership (which was intended). On top of that we have had a benefit system that has caused a generational alternative to work and it’s been encouraged (grandma’s, mums passing to daughters the incentive as a way of life instead of work). 

We have a broken housing market relying on this cycle that has enabled ever more leeches going up the chain feeding off those below.
The TV/media fuels this greed, ‘bricks and mortar’ can only go up etc. This has caused the greatest property bubble of all time, way beyond affordability, or salary ratios. The resounding crash will bankrupt hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

A young working family living off their own backs has in no way any sense of entitlement compared to any of the above, facing 40 year mortgages, rising bills, no reachable pension and possible indebtedness for the rest of their lives.

If I was a surgeon/doctor and had a massive student loan facing either 30 years of 9% above threshold deductions or 10% RPI to try and actually pay off the loan, I would be leaving the country instead.

There is no just ‘pull your socks up’ answer of years ago, the system has long been broken. The above economic  circumstances will most likely never be repeated again in history. The unwinding of this cycle will cause lasting devastation. 

There seems to be 2 ways to qualify for warm home discount, you need to be eligible for OAP with extra credit because you have no other income or you are low waged and your supplier is part of the scheme. You wont be eligible if you have a private pension on top of OAP if I understand things correctly.

Link to gov.uk warm homes discount