Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

On 14/01/2022 at 14:22, Loki said:

I'm YOLOing in at Nasdaq comp ~14500 so you might get a chance to laugh at me

target hit, fuk me Uncle Dave was right, get the voodoo bones out!

Did u get yer longs in??

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Where do you get 2.5% from, is it some sort of an average you have done from here or is it a reported figure?

https://investors.vodafone.com/debt-investors/bonds-outstanding-eu-and-us

 

Yes,average across the ones i hold,funny enough the higher priced ones end first.Imperial is similar,just paying a bond off this year as it ended will save them £70 mill.

1 hour ago, Harley said:

TradingView.  These numbers are often a mystery to me!  Dividenddata says 3.89%.  Simply Wall St says 3.91%.  investing.com says 4.72%.  IB says 3.91%.

Its 4.01% at £4 at todays exchange rate

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

target hit, fuk me Uncle Dave was right, get the voodoo bones out!

Did u get yer longs in??

Suck people out of value and back into fresh air before the plunge.?

 

[CannonFodder]

Aaargh , i missed the boat, school boy error

[Harley]

On 18/01/2022 at 11:47, geordie_lurch said:

Gazprom is almost looking 'cheap' compared to other oilies now - down 4% at $8.22 currently and a fair bit recently. I'm tempted to buy more to bring it up to match my Shell and BP holdings

Glad I didn't get around to putting my orders in today.  I was going to sell down.  Now up 5.38% today.  Yep, pulled back from close to the all time high.  I was looking at it falling further but who knows atm!  Someone likes buying on the dips but it's still etching out lower lows (in a potential megaphone pattern).

PS:  I'm dealing on the Moscow exchange and my references are to GAZP.  I also own SIBN!

[Heart's Ease]

19 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Aaargh , i missed the boat, school boy error

Which platform are you buying gazprom with? On HL I can only GAZ buy with a Fund and Share account. Is it PJSC Gazprom (OGZD)?

TIA

 

[geordie_lurch]

41 minutes ago, Harley said:

Glad I didn't get around to putting my orders in today.  I was going to sell down.  Now up 5.38% today.  Yep, pulled back from close to the all time high.  I was looking at it falling further but who knows atm!  Someone likes buying on the dips but it's still etching out lower lows (in a potential megaphone pattern).

I got OGZD under $8 yesterday - on my mobile so don't have exact price but I'd rather have cash in Gazprom at the moment

My K&S AG purchase earlier today hasn't been quite as good (yet!) but the gains on the BP, Repsol and Shell I have added over the last few weeks makes up for those as does the run ups since the Covid lows.

I'm still learning but I've come a long way since opening my first ever stocks and shares ISA in 2020 as a result of all the great posts in this thread

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Aaargh , i missed the boat, school boy error

What's your timeline?  Day trade or longer?  Plenty more chances either way, eventually!  It was up c.130% since the Oct20 low, now say 105%.  I should have got in at 165 but waited for confirmation and got in at a somewhat higher average ladder and rode up.  I've given up 30% of gains and should have pared back a little in Oct21 but not sure now whether to take a possible further hit as I'll be adding on completion.  Worried it could have a lot further to fall first.

PS:  Whoops, I'm referring to GAZP on the Moscow exchange but I also own SIBN!

[Lightscribe]

Had to sell BATS yesterday, its one that I shall look to buy back in the next downturn but couldn’t help but take 25% profit on.

I then used this yesterday on polymetal at 1100 now up 8% today on the rebound, as well as FRES as it slipped past my 800 mark again which is obviously up too. Not bad tagging the bottoms there.

[Axeman123]

Anyone else notice gold is looking perky this arvo?

~1837 USD/oz

[VeryMeanReversion]

4 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Really one needs to pay student loan off asap before interest compounds it.

This is a graduate tax for most that will never be paid off.

I could retire now but will work another 2-3 years to pay the uni fees for two kids so they won't have to pay the grad tax.

I've said they can pay me back interest free over as long a time period as they need. That way, they still have to be sure it's worth going, then I'll probably just write it off anyway.

 

[Boon]

Don't know if posted already but this is a classic Mumsnet in the making!

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4457635-For-not-wanting-to-work-full-time

Either there is gonna be some mass pain ahead, or UBI is a shoe-in.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

19 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Anyone else notice gold is looking perky this arvo?

~1837 USD/oz

Harmony gold says hi! 

[Harley]

29 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Had to sell BATS yesterday, its one that I shall look to buy back in the next downturn but couldn’t help but take 25% profit on.

I then used this yesterday on polymetal at 1100 now up 8% today on the rebound, as well as FRES as it slipped past my 800 mark again which is obviously up too. Not bad tagging the bottoms there.

Could be a good tag on POLY.  Could be a good setup but I'll wait for confirmation on the weekly.  I sold out at a loss a while back as was too early.  It would be nice if it breaks its run of lower lows.  I'm waiting on FRES too before laddering in some more.

26 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Anyone else notice gold is looking perky this arvo?

~1837 USD/oz

Related to the above (PM stock canaries)?  There's been a silent run up in the monthly (since the May21 bullish pullback) seemingly not picked up by many given the noise on the daily and weekly.  I was worried about a bearish head and shoulders pattern on the monthly but the Jun21 bounce onwards has reduced that risk somewhat.  At a key resistance level atm with the weekly not sure what to do and the daily looking like it has the momentum if it chooses to run.  All referenced in GBP.  Alas, TPTB will not like a run, especially right now!  Interesting to see what crypto does.

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Had to sell BATS yesterday, its one that I shall look to buy back in the next downturn but couldn’t help but take 25% profit on.

I then used this yesterday on polymetal at 1100 now up 8% today on the rebound, as well as FRES as it slipped past my 800 mark again which is obviously up too. Not bad tagging the bottoms there.

 

[Majorpain]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

  Alas, TPTB will not like a run, especially right now!  Interesting to see what crypto does.

Russian tanks rolling across the Ukraine border will mean all bets are off for PM's, but the bigger problem is mass cyber attacks which have a much, much lower threshold of use.  Crypto has not experienced a proper recession, never mind internet hardware it relies on to function coming under attack, I very much doubt the result will be good.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Suck people out of value and back into fresh air before the plunge.?

i'm flummoxed what'll happen from a macro POV......Dave says up to 19/20k now on Nasdaq!? Sounds mad with interest rate rises inbound but dunno....expect the unexpected? 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

target hit, fuk me Uncle Dave was right, get the voodoo bones out!

Did u get yer longs in??

I've opened one, waiting for further falls to ladder.  It's only for fun but IF it all comes together, will clear my vehicle loan

[BadAlchemy]

12 minutes ago, nirvana said:

i'm flummoxed what'll happen from a macro POV......Dave says up to 19/20k now on Nasdaq!? Sounds mad with interest rate rises inbound but dunno....expect the unexpected? 

His reasoning for his melt up was explained a bit more in one of his recent interviews. I understand that he does not see the Fed hiking rates anywhere near as much as they are promising to, or even at all. With the market (he refers to 'bond vigilantes') already pushing up  treasury yields that takes the pressure off the need to hike rates? 

The resulting exuberance from continuing low-ish rates will cause a parabolic stock market meltup. Eventually the Fed WILL be forced to actually raise rates. They will then overdo it, as they usually do... BK!

Something like that.

[leonardratso]

i dunno about you guys but i got some gold/silver miner dividends last week, im gonna splurge this week and buy myself something really ostentatious to make the neighbors jealous;

Your money is on its way!

The withdrawal of £1.98 was successfully processed. Depending on your payment providers, it might take up to 3 business days for the money to reach your bank account.

Not sure i can wait for the 3 days though, its so exciting.

[CannonFodder]

1 hour ago, Heart's Ease said:

Which platform are you buying gazprom with? On HL I can only GAZ buy with a Fund and Share account. Is it PJSC Gazprom (OGZD)?

TIA

 

GAZ from iweb which is on german market i think. Its in an ISA.

I look at the price on nyse at open as it allows me to understand sentiment of US on russian companies as the big money ploughs in and out.

[CannonFodder]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

What's your timeline?  Day trade or longer?  Plenty more chances either way, eventually!  It was up c.130% since the Oct20 low, now say 105%.  I should have got in at 165 but waited for confirmation and got in at a somewhat higher average ladder and rode up.  I've given up 30% of gains and should have pared back a little in Oct21 but not sure now whether to take a possible further hit as I'll be adding on completion.  Worried it could have a lot further to fall first.

PS:  Whoops, I'm referring to GAZP on the Moscow exchange but I also own SIBN!

I hold for months normally, dont sell unless reason to sell and reason is i need cash for something better lol

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

The multi year reversion to that line was too much to resist and I needed to free some capital, it was a sexy chart. 

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

Sorry chaps, just thinking out loud, bear with me.

A few weeks ago, Durham Born posted something along the lines of, "the CBs have printed about 30% of the disinflation, should be enough for now". Then our deflation stocks start to move. Then today the government announce an end to all mask mandates and no vax pass for any large live events, from next Thursday.

I am starting to smell a rat.

[belfastchild]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

 

That spending on treats idea seems a bit weak to me in terms of just how material are the numbers.  Sure, has an effect, but a sufficiently big enough one to care about?

The Lipstick Effect. Its well documented.
Its more of a guideline to the state of the economy or more what the state of the economy is going to be.

I do a bit of FB marketplace buying and selling, nothing over 20 quid, just to get to talk to people in different work areas etc. During lockdowns it was mostly women buying presents for their men and most were wearing bloody nhs lanyards.
One sale since early December as opposed to about 20 a month normally.
Im using FB marketplace and Gumtree etc as a bit of a guide to disposable income. Once the Jan clearouts are gone skewing the effects will be interesting to see if selling off stuff gathers pace or doesnt.
Certainly the freecycle group Im a member of was inundated with sob stories before Christmas (people just being dicks and trying to outbid each other on the number of adhd kids in the house per high value item offered).