Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Bricormortis]

49 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Has anyone considered human nature w.r.t. the current inflation.

Since the emergence of social media there has been no inflation....given how connected people are and how quickly news/panic can spread, has anyone considered unwarranted mass hysteria panic with people buying anything/everything ?

 

I cant wait to see the effects of social media/ internet wrt precious metals once it starts its run.

[Democorruptcy]

12 hours ago, JREWING said:

Interesting. I'm guessing while living overseas and NOT a UK resident in essence legally you should not trade on any UK exchanges. I was guessing that having a Australian IP address then the HL portal would be view only. I'm guessing @wherebee buy's the BP ADR on the US exchange whereas you have the ability to buy BP on the FTSE.

Thanks for the reply, I hope Oz treats you well. Parts of Australian culture I like, and some I detest.  Good luck.

If you move abroad you can still keep the ISA so can trade on it. The only thing you can't do is add more money to it after the tax year that you move. You can also change providers and start contributing again if you come back to the UK. It also says you still get UK Tax Relief on it but I thought where you moved might have something to say about that, double taxation treaty etc.

https://www.gov.uk/individual-savings-accounts/if-you-move-abroad

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

If you’re non U.K. resident then HMRC only care about dividends from U.K. companies and you have the annual £12.5k personal allowance before you need to pay any tax.

Your CGT allowances differ too. HMRC only care about gains made on stocks that you owned before leaving the U.K. and only then if you live abroad for less than 5 years. All the gains roll up into the year you return to the U.K. against the CGT allowance for that year - so only an issue if you made huge gains outside a tax wrapper and were outside the U.K. for less than 5 years.

 

Informative response CV,thanks for the info.

2 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

No. Even if above the tax threshold, you get 2k dividend and 10k capital gains before u need to do anything 

Assuming this is a 100 % uk tax situation

Generally one only declares taxable income

You can also use your unused allowance towards dividends but if taxable dividends exceed 10k you need to fill out self assessment.

 

Are you a fully fledged member of the abacus using community?

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

No, the hatchet is reserved for Whitty! :-)))

Think you're right Mr X,he has always a cut a lone figure and as the CMO he technically/morally/scientifically outranks Vallance.

Looking at how quick the unwind is occurring one can only surmise that there's some serious problems under the bonnet.Possibly down to BJ's garden party but possibly also economic.Starting to see a lot of boarded up pubs.

Interesting as well,that we're unwinding as some of the main players in WW2 gear up for vaxx mandates-Germany/Austria/Israel.

I suspect ina few years a lot of these politicians who pushed these policies will be held in ridicule by the very people who supported/aided/abetted them.We'll struggle to find anyone openly saying they supported lockdown.

43 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

 

There is no just ‘pull your socks up’ answer of years ago, the system has long been broken. The above economic  circumstances will most likely never be repeated again in history. The unwinding of this cycle will cause lasting devastation. 

Nice psot.Couldn't agree more.I've psoted severally that when the dust settles economically we will see great social upheavel as benefits/pensions/govt jobs are cut,disposable incomes shrink and we find out how vastly outnumbered our police force is.

I've bored before but spoke to a copper who did New Year's Eve on Broad St this year and said it was the worst violence he'd seen in 20 years service.People running up and kicking random ,drunk,unconcious people lying on the streets in the head for no reason,50 year old blokes who two years back would have been calming fights down now starting them......

Your last sentence is in my opinion extremely prescient.

The darkness of humankind has been hidden from view in the UK for many years by the welfare /healthcare system,whenit's revealed that the cupboards are bare we will be nine meals from chaos.

[CannonFodder]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Are you a fully fledged member of the abacus using community?

 

Nope engineer, though I hang out with them. I.M on the side of how much do different engineering options cost over the lifecycle.

I also like to research the pitfalls of tax.

One picks things up, engineers tend to work overseas in ME or freelance as one man companies so not paying tax also a higher interest in engineering community than most. 

Part of my role also manages contracts across borders, aware of withholding taxes and issues of establishing a tax presence. I rely heavily on support here. I know enough that i know that i dont know enough if that makes sense.

Perhaps also that engineers like their numbers as much as accountants.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Has anyone considered human nature w.r.t. the current inflation.

Since the emergence of social media there has been no inflation....given how connected people are and how quickly news/panic can spread, has anyone considered unwarranted mass hysteria panic with people buying anything/everything ?

Yes.  This was mentioned on a recent podcast - a convincing case how social media will make it different this time.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, MithrilVest said:

Regarding the original post, I suspect it will amplify people's response - perhaps seeing bulk buying of cheap items when deals are shared, groupthink saying we need to spend less etc.

Accelerated cobweb theorem et al?  A contrarian's dream!

[Harley]

I've had a lifetime of all this double tax, etc stuff.  Not that bad if you do the study.  HRMC publishes a lot of stuff.  Then there's an accountant (or two!) for any tricky stuff.  Some stuff posted is sort of right, depending on circumstances, and some stuff is missing, like you still need to file CGT pages even if you don't exceed the annual allowance if the proceeds exceed a certain amount, recording CGT losses to carry forward, the applicability of the foreign pages on your tax return, the various tax residency criteria and implications, etc.  For HRMC, ignorance is no defense so best to do the due diligence.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

We have some elderly living entirely and dependent on state pension and council rented accommodation.

This may suggest a number of things, either a) the NMW is insufficient, and/or b) they have failed to prioritize what they spent their earnings on, and/or c) they didn't have a pension.

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

They’re in no way the same bracket as elderly boomers, getting warm home discount and a golden private pension (of which some retired at 50), multi-assets etc which circumstances over a particular timeframe have enabled (famously the likes of Peter Stringfellow trying to give his warm home discount back but failing)

I hear this 'Boomers' argument all of the time...often these 'Boomers' haven't been gifted their wealth, but gained it through wise decisions. As for weather warm home discount should be means tested, that could be an argument for many benefits...where do we start/stop, and where do we make people responsible for their own poor financial decisions/planning?

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

We have had council house millionaires, that have taken advantage of the ‘right to buy’ brought in by Thatcher and desolated the countries social housing stock into private ownership (which was intended). On top of that we have had a benefit system that has caused a generational alternative to work and it’s been encouraged (grandma’s, mums passing to daughters the incentive as a way of life instead of work). 

Agree, council houses should never have been allowed to be sold off, they were there for a reason. In addition, the rental values should have been means tested so that those who were earning sufficient not to need them then had to make a choice between a slightly more expensive 'home' or a slightly cheaper private dwelling in the open market i.e. to stop sufficient earners playing the "Its my home, we have always lived here" card.

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

We have a broken housing market relying on this cycle that has enabled ever more leeches going up the chain feeding off those below.
The TV/media fuels this greed, ‘bricks and mortar’ can only go up etc. This has caused the greatest property bubble of all time, way beyond affordability, or salary ratios. The resounding crash will bankrupt hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

These people are not 'leeches', they are just making the most of potential investments...the issue has arisen as successive governments have manipulated a market rather than allowing it to naturally operate.

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

A young working family living off their own backs has in no way any sense of entitlement compared to any of the above, facing 40 year mortgages, rising bills, no reachable pension and possible indebtedness for the rest of their lives

Agree, my comment regarding 'sense of entitlement' was aimed at those who believe 'benefits are a given'. In addition, if we focus upon university education specifically, this is something that should also not be a 'given' entitlement, but one that is looked on as an 'investment', if the investment doesn't 'work' financially then 'you' must decide whether its worth paying for 'out of your own pocket'. This said, I believe there is a place for a grant system for those that show promise but are financially challenged, but not the system we have at the moment where university admission criteria are being lowered based upon a universities desire to maximize 'bums on seats'.

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

If I was a surgeon/doctor and had a massive student loan facing either 30 years of 9% above threshold deductions or 10% RPI to try and actually pay off the loan, I would be leaving the country instead.

Yes, that would be your personal choice...likewise if you decided that you didn't want to leave your 'Mother country'/social circle you might have to make a decision [as mentioned above] about the financial validity of such a career choice/training.

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

There is no just ‘pull your socks up’ answer of years ago, the system has long been broken. The above economic  circumstances will most likely never be repeated again in history. The unwinding of this cycle will cause lasting devastation. 

Agree the system is 'broken' and needs a reset...the problem is nobody is brave enough of willing to enact such a policy, and so 'the hole just get deeper'.

[MrXxxx]

47 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting as well,that we're unwinding as some of the main players in WW2 gear up for vaxx mandates-Germany/Austria/Israel.

I suspect ina few years a lot of these politicians who pushed these policies will be held in ridicule by the very people who supported/aided/abetted them.We'll struggle to find anyone openly saying they supported lockdown.

Agree, this is what I cannot understand...and am hoping that once one 'domino tumbles' it will start the general policy decline everywhere else, and signify the end to this absurdity that we are currently living through.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Has anyone considered human nature w.r.t. the current inflation.

Since the emergence of social media there has been no inflation....given how connected people are and how quickly news/panic can spread, has anyone considered unwarranted mass hysteria panic with people buying anything/everything ?

 

Yes I must admit to this myself...when I see @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker latest posting on what he/she has just bought I do panic, and start selling everything! :-)))

[Harley]

I so wanted to further ladder into the GDX and GDXJ UK equivalents today but persuaded myself to hold off.  The daily and monthly charts look quite promising but I decided to wait on the weekly, especially as the daily shot up yesterday and gapped up (plus above multiple resistance) today and the narrative is out there.  Maybe I'll do better grabbing a few PM div players while I wait.

[Harley]

Just goes to show how a narrative can be as good as a chocolate teapot without checking the technical.   Uranium is a buy they say, for all sorts of reasons.  GCL is down 32% from its Nov21 all time high and 17% from its bounce high and I'm not inspired by the technicals!  It will turn, but right now a classic Mr Market taking the easy dumb money.  Macro, fundamentals, technicals. 

[invalid]

 

 

A real thread crosser.

Energy prices, inflation, telecoms and Russian gas all in one.

Sorry for it being from the BBC, would not normally link but thought this one interesting enough to make an exception.

For those not wanting to visit the BBC I've quoted a few key bits below.

Once again, the MSM are months/years behind this thread. Cheers DB.

 

Why high energy costs will push up your phone bill

When you see your mobile bill rise this year, you probably won't blame Russia for deploying 100,000 troops at its border with Ukraine.

But the two events are linked by Germany's refusal to approve a new Russian gas pipeline.

And their impact emerges in an unexpected location: at the mouth of the River Medway in Kent.

Today, it is on the frontline of a very different type of invasion from overseas: high prices.

It is the most visible entry point for a wave of inflation that has now reached a 30-year high. What does that inflation look like? Huge tankers, each carrying enough liquid natural gas to meet a third of the UK's needs for a day.

And that premium will be passed on to us, energy customers; if not now, then in April when the energy price cap is increased.

And that will impact your phone bill.

Buried in the small print of your contract is a clause that allows the network provider to increase prices in line with the old retail price index, which is already at 7.5%.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60060478

 

 

 

[Heart's Ease]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

 

To be fair though a lot of people did buy self sufficient micro accommodation i.e. camper vans and motorhomes which caused a massive surge in their prices and it will be interesting to see how the price of these goes in 2022.

Am keeping a close eye on this. The Motorhome Man on YouTube does an industry round up from time to time with one of the big trade buyers and that's well worth a listen.

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

 

A real thread crosser.

Energy prices, inflation, telecoms and Russian gas all in one.

Sorry for it being from the BBC, would not normally link but thought this one interesting enough to make an exception.

For those not wanting to visit the BBC I've quoted a few key bits below.

Once again, the MSM are months/years behind this thread. Cheers DB.

 

Why high energy costs will push up your phone bill

When you see your mobile bill rise this year, you probably won't blame Russia for deploying 100,000 troops at its border with Ukraine.

But the two events are linked by Germany's refusal to approve a new Russian gas pipeline.

And their impact emerges in an unexpected location: at the mouth of the River Medway in Kent.

Today, it is on the frontline of a very different type of invasion from overseas: high prices.

It is the most visible entry point for a wave of inflation that has now reached a 30-year high. What does that inflation look like? Huge tankers, each carrying enough liquid natural gas to meet a third of the UK's needs for a day.

And that premium will be passed on to us, energy customers; if not now, then in April when the energy price cap is increased.

And that will impact your phone bill.

Buried in the small print of your contract is a clause that allows the network provider to increase prices in line with the old retail price index, which is already at 7.5%.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60060478

 

 

 

3 mobile just increased my phomne bill from £11 to £35 per month.

30 minutes later, it's now £8 per month, all inclusive everything, inflation for idiots.

 

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

 

A real thread crosser.

Energy prices, inflation, telecoms and Russian gas all in one.

Sorry for it being from the BBC, would not normally link but thought this one interesting enough to make an exception.

For those not wanting to visit the BBC I've quoted a few key bits below.

Once again, the MSM are months/years behind this thread. Cheers DB.

 

Why high energy costs will push up your phone bill

When you see your mobile bill rise this year, you probably won't blame Russia for deploying 100,000 troops at its border with Ukraine.

But the two events are linked by Germany's refusal to approve a new Russian gas pipeline.

And their impact emerges in an unexpected location: at the mouth of the River Medway in Kent.

Today, it is on the frontline of a very different type of invasion from overseas: high prices.

It is the most visible entry point for a wave of inflation that has now reached a 30-year high. What does that inflation look like? Huge tankers, each carrying enough liquid natural gas to meet a third of the UK's needs for a day.

And that premium will be passed on to us, energy customers; if not now, then in April when the energy price cap is increased.

And that will impact your phone bill.

Buried in the small print of your contract is a clause that allows the network provider to increase prices in line with the old retail price index, which is already at 7.5%.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60060478

 

 

 

Three mobile seem to be an outlier with the annual charges. Instead of the 3.9% + RPI they do a fixed 4.5%

Quote

 

The price displayed includes a £5 monthly discount for paying by a recurring method, such as direct debit. Each April, your Monthly Charge will increase by 4.5%.

SIM only

 

Of course if you can get a cheaper deal even with higher price increases it might be cheaper over time.

[Harley]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

3 mobile just increased my phomne bill from £11 to £35 per month.

30 minutes later, it's now £8 per month, all inclusive everything, inflation for idiots.

Did you haggle?  I did.  Next time I'll start with the saying "nothing is written"!

[CannonFodder]

20 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Covid proably did occur 30 years ago, just no one noticed. That's the problem going forward, it will happen again, and I've woken up to find myself in a society that is quite happy to support totalitarian restrictions to deal with a mild virus. There is nothing I can do to change this, as the precedent is there now, and the majority of people will support this again. The UK is obviously one of the freer societies, currently, but what if Labour happened to be in charge? The list of places where I can live as a free man, without a sword of Damocles hanging over my freedom, is vanishingly small. Some states in the USA, and that's about it.

Happens every 2 years i think, a global scare

Swine flu

Bird flu

Ebola

SARs

Zika virus

Periodic locks if this is par for the course now

[HousePriceMania]

What's happened to www.bullionbypost.co.uk, seems to have disappeared today 

[HousePriceMania]

23 minutes ago, Harley said:

Did you haggle?  I did.  Next time I'll start with the saying "nothing is written"!

I think getting to about 30% off the old price ( 80% off the new price ) could be called haggling.

 

[CannonFodder]

37 minutes ago, Harley said:

Just goes to show how a narrative can be as good as a chocolate teapot without checking the technical.   Uranium is a buy they say, for all sorts of reasons.  GCL is down 32% from its Nov21 all time high and 17% from its bounce high and I'm not inspired by the technicals!  It will turn, but right now a classic Mr Market taking the easy dumb money.  Macro, fundamentals, technicals. 

Not sure.

I follow uranium and I think it could be a good buy long time but I think perhaps It could go a lot lower first as there are so many plants in Europe shutting down and it takes so long to build new ones 

Demand could collapse in the short-term before recovering long term.

of course this is my guess and I don't know really but there is so many people on internet so sure it will go out to the moon.

[leonardratso]

damn them ruskies and their coal mines, still, i like cash anyway, oops was from 10th jan, sorry didnt check it earlier;

EVRAZ PLC - Important Information

 

Demerger of PJSC Raspadskaya (RASP).

You will receive a cash entitlement to 0.425547788 of a New PJSC Raspadskaya share for each Existing EVRAZ share held on the Ex-entitlement Date. The company has informed us that the Ex-entitlement date should be announced on or around 9th February 2022.

Due to the demerger we will no longer be able to accept any new purchases or transfers in for EVRAZ shares until after the Ex-entitlement date. This includes regular investments and purchasing TradePlans. All existing regular investments, and purchasing TradePlans will be deleted.

On 16th April 2021, EVRAZ announced a proposed demerger of the Company's Russian based coal mining business PJSC Raspadskaya (RASP). The demerger will entitle holders to 0.425547788 of a RASP share for each existing EVRAZ share held on the Ex-entitlement date. The company has informed us that the Ex-entitlement date should be announced on or around 9th February 2022.The demerger will be implemented by way of a Dividend in Specie of RASP shares.

As all trading in RASP shares is currently on the Moscow Stock Exchange, we will be unable to hold the RASP shares after the demerger therefore any RASP shares to which you are entitled will be sold via the Share Sale Facility (SSF) offered by EVRAZ. You will receive a cash entitlement when the SSF has completed. EVRAZ have anticipated that the sale of RASP shares could take up to 6 months to complete.

If you wish to receive RASP shares from the demerger you will need to establish an arrangement with an alternative broker and have the EVRAZ shares transferred to them by 14th February 2022. You will need to instruct the alternative broker to arrange the transfer with us which will be done at no cost. Please check that the receiving broker can hold RASP shares prior to the transfer.

The demerger means shareholders will continue to hold EVRAZ shares. EVRAZ will continue to be listed and traded on the London Stock Exchange.

Should you wish to find out more information about the demerger and the SSF, please visit the EVRAZ website and read the circular which provides detailed information. The website and circular can be found at www.evraz.com/

 

 

[Harley]

42 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I think getting to about 30% off the old price ( 80% off the new price ) could be called haggling.
 

Hah, bogged it mate (the nice kind of bogged)!

PS:  Think I've finally worked out what bogged is.  It's either tail of the normal distribution curve so either very good (slam dunk) or very bad (oh Rodgers!).

[Harley]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

Not sure.

I follow uranium and I think it could be a good buy long time but I think perhaps It could go a lot lower first as there are so many plants in Europe shutting down and it takes so long to build new ones 

Demand could collapse in the short-term before recovering long term.

of course this is my guess and I don't know really but there is so many people on internet so sure it will go out to the moon.

You're not sure you need to look at the price action before buying stuff?  I assume you misunderstood.  I was not predicting.  I was saying it has not done well during the recent narratives.  I did suggest it might go lower before..... so I was not dissing the long term bull case.  It was being used as an example of how you need to look at all three things.  That was the point of the post.  BTW, GCL being stock based is probably like PMs and probably moves a deviation so away from the underlying but I wasn't trying to do a deep dive on the sector.

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Hah, bogged it mate (the nice kind of bogged)!

PS:  Think I've finally worked out what bogged is.  It's either tail of the normal distribution curve so either very good (slam dunk) or very bad (oh Rodgers!).

I googled, BOGGED IT and still don't know what it means.

Toyota on the other hand is from Toyoda, meaning rice “fertile rice patty”

Every day's a school day.