Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Option5 said:

It makes sense, provide a service or product at a lower price than your customers can get elsewhere, then when you want control over your customers restrict or stop supply.

China - electronics, car parts etc.

Russia - gas

A simple variation on the "honeytrap" blackmail ploy.

Yes but David Murrin says China is 'going consumerist' through necessity. Their global export markets will be restricted of course but also it's what their own citizens want, so it's an attempt to keep them happy for longer. My hope is a bigger, richer middle class will hasten the CCPs demise. History shows this happening countless times.

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Covid reopening and the fed sticking to its plan for the first rate rise in March, rather than the rumoured emergency January one.

I am considering putting this year's ISA money in an S&P500 ETF, the question is today or Monday? 

Personally and not financial advice I would wait until its stops falling down the stairs, its gone througe 2 support levels on the 5th and the 12th Jan.

[CannonFodder]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

My understanding of it was that he thought they would stick to the previous plan of tapering till March and then tightening, whereas a media narrative had been building around a surprise rate hike this month. In other words a purely echo chamber thing.

This tweet, outside chance of no tightening or i am readding wrong way

[Bricormortis]

David Hunter says the dollar DXY is rolling over now and will reach 80

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Bricormortis said:

David Hunter says the dollar DXY is rolling over now and will reach 80

Again?

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

This tweet, outside chance of no tightening or i am readding wrong way

Could go either way as written, would be a massive divergence from all his previous tweets burried in a reply. In fairness he does have form for that though...

[CannonFodder]

David should have a tendency to say the opposite the day after he first said the previous though.

I do thing the fed is now driving a car that is swerving more and more from heavier understeer to oversteer on the road between bust and high inflation. Which side it crashes is unknown to me, but it will crash eventually lol

Edit you beat me to it

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

I do thing the fed is now driving a car that is swerving more and more from heavier understeer to oversteer on the road between bust and high inflation. Which side it crashes is unknown to me, but it will crash eventually lol

Good analogy.

I would add that the road could be like one in the alps, with a sheer rock wall on the left and a sheer 200 ft drop on the right. Only one of those (inflation) is survivable at any speed.

[CannonFodder]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Any one got any thoughts on Aclara Resources, the spin off from Hochschild Mining?  It plummeted shortly after listing.  Only wondering as my Jupiter Gold and Silver fund holding seems to have turned the corner at last

This has been nothing but trouble for me.

Have hoc in 2 brokers.

IG still havent given me the shares.

IWEB have given me the shares in december but told me they dont deal them so asked for them to be transferred out.

Customer service ......

[Loki]

1 minute ago, CannonFodder said:

This has been nothing but trouble for me.

Have hoc in 2 brokers.

IG still havent given me the shares.

IWEB have given me the shares in december but told me they dont deal them so asked for them to be transferred out.

Customer service ......

In fairness to HL it was effortless, they just appeared in my shares list, and then just as effortlessly turned red

[harp]

Netflix down 25% today.  

I wonder where they’re going to find the cash to pay Harry and Meagain! 

[geordie_lurch]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

David Murrin, another macro commentator I've recently become aware of, says China is covertly pivoting toward supplying its own domestic consumer economy, a trend that will continue because it's own global trade will decrease going forward. He even thinks the China container supply chain/container port 'issues', happening it is said because of covid etc, are actually being used as cover by China in order to hide what it is doing.              

I think I have posted this here before but will post again as relevent...

I chatted for a long time to a young Chinese guy early 2000s in China (pre Beijing Olympics) and he reckoned China was only opening up to get all the west's tech and would then close their borders and focus on their own internal markets when it suited them. Nothing I have seen since then has gone against this

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Any one got any thoughts on Aclara Resources, the spin off from Hochschild Mining?  It plummeted shortly after listing.  Only wondering as my Jupiter Gold and Silver fund holding seems to have turned the corner at last

Not ideally (as above) a load of brokers have decided not to hold them, so there has been quite a lot of forced selling that has kneecapped the price.  Very speculative but interesting and promising resource in a good mining country.

I'm holding the free ones and will keep an eye on them over the next few years, might add depending on what happens economy/price wise.

[janch]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Any one got any thoughts on Aclara Resources, the spin off from Hochschild Mining?  It plummeted shortly after listing.  Only wondering as my Jupiter Gold and Silver fund holding seems to have turned the corner at last

I have some too which are just sitting there in the red!  They have joined my HOC which is also well into the red.  Every so often the miners have a little burst of energy only to fall back again shortly after.  I wish they'd hurry up and DO something.  I can't trade the Aclara unless I fill in the form for trading CAD shares on the TSX so for the moment they can sit there.

Aclara is a development-stage rare earth mineral resources company with a strategic land package of mineral concessions in Chile.

One day they might come good.  Who knows?

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Very speculative but interesting and promising resource in a good mining country.

I'm holding the free ones and will keep an eye on them over the next few years, might add depending on what happens economy/price wise.

Pretty much my thoughts!  I didn't know that about the price though, interesting thank you

[Loki]

Just now, janch said:

I have some too which are just sitting there in the red!  They have joined my HOC which is also well into the red.  Every so often the miners have a little burst of energy only to fall back again shortly after.  I wish they'd hurry up and DO something.  I can't trade the Aclara unless I fill in the form for trading CAD shares on the TSX so for the moment they can sit there.

Aclara is a development-stage rare earth mineral resources company with a strategic land package of mineral concessions in Chile.

One day they might come good.  Who knows?

In my unexpert opinion rare earth demand will be high even if BEV turns out to be a white elephant and we go hydrogen-electric 

[M S E Refugee]

BioNTech and Moderna continue to fall.

[The Bear of Doom]

53 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

This has been nothing but trouble for me.

Have hoc in 2 brokers.

IG still havent given me the shares.

IWEB have given me the shares in december but told me they dont deal them so asked for them to be transferred out.

Customer service ......

They appeared almost immediately in my Interactive Investors account.  I think I can trade them as well (I just tried a dummy sale of them and nothing came up to block the sale, though I never pressed the button to sell!)

They are also shown in green with a 100% gain in II  it must be how they handle free shares in their system.

[arrow]

Lol..Lessons have been learned. Just get Cattle Prod to write your report

Have You Seen 200 Million Barrels of Oil Anywhere?

(Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency is trying to figure out where 200 million barrels of oil went.

The adviser to energy-consuming nations said on Wednesday that observable global oil inventories plunged by more than 600 million barrels last year. That would be fine were it not for the fact -- based on its estimates of supply and demand -- that the decrease should only have been 400 million.

There is always a gap between the two, but the 200 million barrel discrepancy means the oil market could be tighter than previously thought. The gap could be a result of underreporting of demand or over-reporting production, the IEA said. Its monthly report is a benchmark for traders trying to evaluate the balance between supply and demand the world over.

“A retrospective view shows the difficulty over the past two years of reliably analyzing and forecasting supply and demand,” the agency said on Wednesday. “Lessons learned will improve the work in 2022 and allow us to better understand our market.”

While the balance of supply and demand may be one cause of the mismatch, there could be others too. The agency uses satellite data to track oil stockpiles, for example -- but that doesn’t extend to the barrels used to fill pipes or those stored in huge underground caverns. 

There are also issues with reporting. While huge emphasis is placed on stockpiles in OECD nations -- the IEA’s core reporting area -- there are burgeoning volumes outside the region that go unreported, particularly in China. 

Throw in a global pandemic that has transformed the dynamics behind oil consumption, and tracking demand has become significantly more difficult. 

[belfastchild]

52 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think I have posted this here before but will post again as relevent...

I chatted for a long time to a young Chinese guy early 2000s in China (pre Beijing Olympics) and he reckoned China was only opening up to get all the west's tech and would then close their borders and focus on their own internal markets when it suited them. Nothing I have seen since then has gone against this

Was reading earlier about Chinas response to Lithuanians relationship with Taiwan.
Lithuanian imports into China fell 91% in a year, but theres no official embargo.

Last time I was in China was just a little over 10 years ago. It staggered me then that the 'copies' of western goods being sold for a fraction of the cost in the chinese market. The stuff we see on aliexpress banggood etc is just the tip of the iceberg, the stuff they think they can get away with selling without IP infringement. Everything else internally is fair game.

No need for industrial espionage in foreign countries when you can just get them to outsource to China and then take your time going through it.

The west cant really complain, I remember 'hearing stories' of foreign tech being borrowed from clients to aid with 'rollout issues' and being stripped down, with every board going through x-ray machines and being connected to every analyser going.

If only one darling of the tech world hadnt outsourced, refinanced most of the company with chinese yuan loans and then bought bitcoin with it. 'China arent like that'! Sorry to say, everyone is like that.

[nirvana]

NASDAQ RALLIES 300 PIPS INTRADAY!

UNCLE DAVE WE LOVE YOU! 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

we go hydrogen-electric

honda now thinks toyota have got it wrong with hydrogen, probs just fightin talk

https://electrek.co/2022/01/20/honda-ceo-says-toyotas-strategy-to-pursue-hydrogen-cars-doesnt-seem-feasible/

[HousePriceMania]

Honda:  The surname Honda means “original rice paddy” in Japanese,

Toyota, based on Toyoda:  Toyoda means “fertile rice patty” 

WTF !!!

Every days a school day.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 hour ago, harp said:

Netflix down 25% today.  

I wonder where they’re going to find the cash to pay Harry and Meagain! 

Surely nothing to do with folks clubbing together and sharing the username and password what a bunch of TIGHTWADS!

[AWW]

12 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Surely nothing to do with folks clubbing together and sharing the username and password what a bunch of TIGHTWADS!

My Argentinian Netflix account (£4 a month) is shared with three other households, but because I'm so generous, I let them off the quid a month that they should be chucking my way.