Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[belfastchild]

51 minutes ago, nirvana said:

this is an example of how dumb the eejits are, see the date on my pudding? it was the 26 feb yesterday NOT 26 march!

 

If they havent followed refrigeration procedures then its dumped out with the rest of the days reductions.
Im very wary of that stuff, could have been sitting in the sun for hours.

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm resigned to losing my Russian investments.

I have bought more Silver off ebay,hopefully my Metals will soften the blow.

I think Putin may have no choice but to turn off the Gas.

I’m expecting another big sell off tomorrow in Russian stocks.

[moneyscam]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

So much mixed information out there but in regards to Gazprom I found these interesting 

I think this is a bit naively optimistic on their part. It's akin to me kicking the crap out of you and then still expect you to give me those nice cookies you bake before I give you another smack. Put yourself in Russia's shoes for a minute. Why would you want to keep supplying them with what you know are essential inputs to their economies whilst they are in the process of trashing yours?

[moneyscam]

6 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I’m expecting another big sell off tomorrow in Russian stocks.

And the rest. Dow indicated down 500 at this point, only 1.5% but gives an idea of sentiment for tomorrow's open. The market, unlike MSM and citizens which are currently in a frenzied emotional state, is going to dispassionately discount the implications of the Swift and central bank sanctions.

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

So much mixed information out there but in regards to Gazprom I found these interesting 

This is pure farce isn't it?  "This is war, we're going to fuck Russia up!! Oh, hang on, we still need to buy things from them otherwise we'll all be back in the stone age? OK, lets not fuck them up too much then.  Can we do a sort of partial fuck them up?"

Close on the heels of covid, our "elites" do seem to be desperate to illustrate their complete and utter incompetence.

[planit]

8 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

This is pure farce isn't it?  "This is war, we're going to fuck Russia up!! Oh, hang on, we still need to buy things from them otherwise we'll all be back in the stone age? OK, lets not fuck them up too much then.  Can we do a sort of partial fuck them up?"

Close on the heels of covid, our "elites" do seem to be desperate to illustrate their complete and utter incompetence.

Correct it's ridiculous and asking for Russia to sanction the opposite areas like energy.

In fact we are highlighting the areas we are most worried about for Russia to turn the screw on.

 

In reality I feel this was done to try to start a bank run over the weekend.

Over the next week some talks should happen with Russia where there are negotiations over where the boundaries should be. If not it will all escalate to Russia turning off the gas and oil (which they don't want to do but if finance is our strength, energy is theirs).

 

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Anyone going to sell BP first thing Monday as they seem to be the most exposed to Russia?

No.  I think BP will be fine long term.

I am seeing if I can get a sneaky sale on POLY.  Could make 600 quid for 3 days holding....

[wherebee]

15 minutes ago, planit said:

In fact we are highlighting the areas we are most worried about for Russia to turn the screw on.

 

You mean like Biden giving Putin a list of internet infrastructure that should never, ever be involved in a cyberwar?

Which the cunt did, recently.

 

[arrow]

Well, apparently there's gong to be talks between Ukraine and Russia in Gomel, south east Belarus. The Russian negogiating team have already flown there and are waiting for the Ukraine team. But, the Russians say they're not going to stop their advance, as Ukraine said it wanted talks on Friday but then changed its mind. Well, the Ukraine president was a comedian. Perhaps, he's composing his stand up material.

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Nope, I have no contacts in either countries intelligence services and I'm not trusting anything MSM, so I will hold

 

[Harley]

I have a reasonably balanced portfolio that can take a knock in a few stocks.  FWIW, SWIFT is a messaging system not a payments system and I read any restrictions were due in 30 days time.  Can anyone who might have done some DD confirm?

PS:  Sorry for any "tone" but my background makes me really fed up listening to posts on other threads (plus a bit here) and the msm.

[Majorpain]

4 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Sadly I think they're intended consequences. Russia has to retaliate and that is known. The variable is how. Remember the fuss about Russian navy exercises near Ireland over undersea cables? Or the reputed abilities of Russian hackers? If Russia could take out western banking in response why wouldn't they? Or the gas supply. Remember also cyber polygon at the WEF and the similar rehearsal for a global pandemic right before the global pandemic? I'm afraid I am almost a fully fledged conspiralooney now.

If the internet goes down next week I won't even be able to post 'i told you so' on here. How shit will that be?

Its certainly a combat indicator that the media has been setting the stage in those regards for a while now. Tinfoilhattery, especially after the last two years, is now the default setting!  Central banks would like nothing more than the internet going down, wiping trillions from stock markets and taking the various other credit bubbles with it, and giving them a blameless way out of their current wages/assets pricing mismatch pickle.  As has been mentioned, its also a perfect opportunity for moar Central Bank QE that those beastly Russians forced them to do.

Whilst the POLY situation has been unfortunately painful for many, its also been the first time for a while on here that I've seen people properly worried about the return of their money, rather than return on.  Next week will be critical to see if that starts to spread around markets generally, nothing pops a bubble faster than people rushing to the exits to sell at any price.  Next weekend may be a good time to pull the plug depending on how the "Russia = bad" narrative plays out, luckily its as easy as looking at what propaganda the media is pumping out as to how close we are.  If you start seeing Russian hacking capabilities/cable cutting stories everywhere, standby!

[moneyscam]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

I have a reasonably balanced portfolio that can take a knock in a few stocks.  FWIW, SWIFT is a messaging system not a payments system and I read any restrictions were due in 30 days time.  Can anyone who might have done some DD confirm?

PS:  Sorry for any "tone" but my background makes me really fed up listening to posts on other threads (plus a bit here) and the msm.

It's a messaging and payments system.

https://www.swift.com/about-us/our-future/swift-platform-evolution/enhanced-swift-platform-payments

[reformed nice guy]

3 hours ago, nirvana said:

this is an example of how dumb the eejits are, see the date on my pudding? it was the 26 feb yesterday NOT 26 march!

I got 3 of them and 2 foie gras! There was nearly a punch up for the foie gras!

I find it very entertaining and very very interesting talking to the 'downtrodden classes'

I'm actually there as part of the peacekeeping force cos one old geezer is highly aggressive...

Edit: i think he's doing a good sideline, he used to have a knackered old A3 and he's recently upgraded to a newish SUV! there's money in dem der bins 

edit again...be careful lol

This is the dosbods way.

Reducing your food bill is the equivalent of minimising your portfolio charges.

Expiry dates are the beta/risk measure of your food portfolio

[Metalheadz]

20 minutes ago, Harley said:

I have a reasonably balanced portfolio that can take a knock in a few stocks.  FWIW, SWIFT is a messaging system not a payments system and I read any restrictions were due in 30 days time.  Can anyone who might have done some DD confirm?

 

Grant Williams sent this out today, post from 2018 but still pretty relevant: https://www.grant-williams.com/2018/tale-o-swift/

[Metalheadz]

Some Fresh Weekend Doom:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/140nSn1drmplvORbECW_rfScStnT54tUk/view

The Grant Williams Podcast: The End Game #30 - Mike Green

The End Game returns after a year-end hiatus and who better to mark that than our first returning guest of the series, the always-dazzling Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management.

In his first appearance back in July 2020, Mike left all those who listened dumbfounded with much of his insight as he explained the rise of passive and the problems it creates for markets unaccustomed to such a dynamic.

This time, Mike turns his attention to politics, geopolitics and markets as well as updating his thoughts on the influence passive investment strategies are exerting over risk markets in every corner of the globe. Once again, Mike demonstrates why he’s such a crucial voice in our search for The End Game..
 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Jesus Wept said:

I believe POLY has 45% of its mining operations - market cap based in Russia. The rest elsewhere. That needs confirmation though. 

Its largest shareholders are people in Putins inner circle (Alexander Mamut - Alexander Nesis), whether that is good or bad i dont know.

I sold about 5k of POLy on Monday at circa 1050, and bought 6k Thursday at circa 739, on the presumption this war would calm down. But it seems as if there are lunatics on all sides wanting the opposite.

Im on an oil rig with a dreadful internet signal but it seems their website is down.
http://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/assets/where-we-operate/kyzyl/

Hope the full year figures assist in helping me sell, im looking at cashing in the SIPP and the 30 grands worth of shares ive bought in my ISA, daft to punt the house money on holes in the ground in Russia.

https://t.co/6DYh22A0FT

Seems as if its a case of hoping Putin takes up Ukraine's offer of a meeting and there is a ceasefire.

 

[Hancock]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm resigned to losing my Russian investments.

Russian companies can still sell all their gas/oil/metals.

If nationalised then his Oligarch chums will oust him.

Though if they oust him then does whoever replace him nationalise them.

[manservantjerkins]

55 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

This is the dosbods way.

Reducing your food bill is the equivalent of minimising your portfolio charges.

Expiry dates are the beta/risk measure of your food portfolio

And/or your intestinal fortitude

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I have a reasonably balanced portfolio that can take a knock in a few stocks.  FWIW, SWIFT is a messaging system not a payments system and I read any restrictions were due in 30 days time.  Can anyone who might have done some DD confirm?

PS:  Sorry for any "tone" but my background makes me really fed up listening to posts on other threads (plus a bit here) and the msm.

Yes the banking restrictions come into force 26 March, 12:01am US eastern daylight time. Plenty of time for Russia and Ukraine to agree a provisional negotiated ceasefire?              ...perhaps a positive precursor is that both sides are apparently 'working together' at the captured Chernobyl plant.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I have a reasonably balanced portfolio that can take a knock in a few stocks.  FWIW, SWIFT is a messaging system not a payments system and I read any restrictions were due in 30 days time.  Can anyone who might have done some DD confirm?

PS:  Sorry for any "tone" but my background makes me really fed up listening to posts on other threads (plus a bit here) and the msm.

I hear you.

My investing journey is based on various alternative media learning, reading Hayek, Mises and Lynch and this thread for years.

My individual holdings are now up much more than down. Another nudge upwards and I'll be approaching 100% increase since starting in Nov 2020 purely on value stocks. Think of the shit that's gone on in that time!

In fact, having had a few holdings prop up the larger part of my portfolio for months, a lot more of my overall holdings have turned blue and are getting deeper into the blue every week.

Lots of noise about.

Sign of the times.

KISS.

[kibuc]

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I’m expecting another big sell off tomorrow in Russian stocks.

I'm prepared to buy anything that drops significantly on Monday, whether it's Poly, BP or Tesla (ok, maybe not that one). Turbulent times create overreactions which generate some of the best buying opportunities. 

[CannonFodder]

I.m struggling to understand how much of this is gov outrage and how much is posturing to voters on all sides 

[DoINeedOne]

29 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'm prepared to buy anything that drops significantly on Monday, whether it's Poly, BP or Tesla (ok, maybe not that one). Turbulent times create overreactions which generate some of the best buying opportunities. 

After coffee and thinking today I’m now thinking the swift news will cause panic even though it’s select few banks and people

Also with likes of Polymetal being registered I think it was Jersey, listed on LSE and head office in Cyprus 

I'm thinking along the lines of buying more 

we shall see on Monday 

 

[nirvana]

5 hours ago, belfastchild said:

If they havent followed refrigeration procedures then its dumped out with the rest of the days reductions.
Im very wary of that stuff, could have been sitting in the sun for hours.

christ I've had THE most horrendous indigestion! AND I had to stop mid bowl of banana and honey to have a crap!

This is most unlike me.......wait til I have a word with Stigette of the dump next week!

Mind you I did get totally off my head, get the munchies, then remembered they'd given me a manky chicken and emmental sarnie too so scoffed that down.....maybe a bit too quick 

[jamtomorrow]