Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Metalheadz]

Some Fresh Weekend Doom:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/140nSn1drmplvORbECW_rfScStnT54tUk/view

The Grant Williams Podcast: The End Game #30 - Mike Green

The End Game returns after a year-end hiatus and who better to mark that than our first returning guest of the series, the always-dazzling Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management.

In his first appearance back in July 2020, Mike left all those who listened dumbfounded with much of his insight as he explained the rise of passive and the problems it creates for markets unaccustomed to such a dynamic.

This time, Mike turns his attention to politics, geopolitics and markets as well as updating his thoughts on the influence passive investment strategies are exerting over risk markets in every corner of the globe. Once again, Mike demonstrates why he’s such a crucial voice in our search for The End Game..
 

[Jesus Wept]

I believe POLY has 45% of its mining operations - market cap based in Russia. The rest elsewhere. That needs confirmation though. 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Jesus Wept said:

I believe POLY has 45% of its mining operations - market cap based in Russia. The rest elsewhere. That needs confirmation though. 

Its largest shareholders are people in Putins inner circle (Alexander Mamut - Alexander Nesis), whether that is good or bad i dont know.

I sold about 5k of POLy on Monday at circa 1050, and bought 6k Thursday at circa 739, on the presumption this war would calm down. But it seems as if there are lunatics on all sides wanting the opposite.

Im on an oil rig with a dreadful internet signal but it seems their website is down.
http://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/assets/where-we-operate/kyzyl/

Hope the full year figures assist in helping me sell, im looking at cashing in the SIPP and the 30 grands worth of shares ive bought in my ISA, daft to punt the house money on holes in the ground in Russia.

https://t.co/6DYh22A0FT

Seems as if its a case of hoping Putin takes up Ukraine's offer of a meeting and there is a ceasefire.

 

[Hancock]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm resigned to losing my Russian investments.

Russian companies can still sell all their gas/oil/metals.

If nationalised then his Oligarch chums will oust him.

Though if they oust him then does whoever replace him nationalise them.

[manservantjerkins]

55 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

This is the dosbods way.

Reducing your food bill is the equivalent of minimising your portfolio charges.

Expiry dates are the beta/risk measure of your food portfolio

And/or your intestinal fortitude

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I have a reasonably balanced portfolio that can take a knock in a few stocks.  FWIW, SWIFT is a messaging system not a payments system and I read any restrictions were due in 30 days time.  Can anyone who might have done some DD confirm?

PS:  Sorry for any "tone" but my background makes me really fed up listening to posts on other threads (plus a bit here) and the msm.

Yes the banking restrictions come into force 26 March, 12:01am US eastern daylight time. Plenty of time for Russia and Ukraine to agree a provisional negotiated ceasefire?              ...perhaps a positive precursor is that both sides are apparently 'working together' at the captured Chernobyl plant.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I have a reasonably balanced portfolio that can take a knock in a few stocks.  FWIW, SWIFT is a messaging system not a payments system and I read any restrictions were due in 30 days time.  Can anyone who might have done some DD confirm?

PS:  Sorry for any "tone" but my background makes me really fed up listening to posts on other threads (plus a bit here) and the msm.

I hear you.

My investing journey is based on various alternative media learning, reading Hayek, Mises and Lynch and this thread for years.

My individual holdings are now up much more than down. Another nudge upwards and I'll be approaching 100% increase since starting in Nov 2020 purely on value stocks. Think of the shit that's gone on in that time!

In fact, having had a few holdings prop up the larger part of my portfolio for months, a lot more of my overall holdings have turned blue and are getting deeper into the blue every week.

Lots of noise about.

Sign of the times.

KISS.

[kibuc]

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I’m expecting another big sell off tomorrow in Russian stocks.

I'm prepared to buy anything that drops significantly on Monday, whether it's Poly, BP or Tesla (ok, maybe not that one). Turbulent times create overreactions which generate some of the best buying opportunities. 

[CannonFodder]

I.m struggling to understand how much of this is gov outrage and how much is posturing to voters on all sides 

[DoINeedOne]

29 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'm prepared to buy anything that drops significantly on Monday, whether it's Poly, BP or Tesla (ok, maybe not that one). Turbulent times create overreactions which generate some of the best buying opportunities. 

After coffee and thinking today I’m now thinking the swift news will cause panic even though it’s select few banks and people

Also with likes of Polymetal being registered I think it was Jersey, listed on LSE and head office in Cyprus 

I'm thinking along the lines of buying more 

we shall see on Monday 

 

[nirvana]

5 hours ago, belfastchild said:

If they havent followed refrigeration procedures then its dumped out with the rest of the days reductions.
Im very wary of that stuff, could have been sitting in the sun for hours.

christ I've had THE most horrendous indigestion! AND I had to stop mid bowl of banana and honey to have a crap!

This is most unlike me.......wait til I have a word with Stigette of the dump next week!

Mind you I did get totally off my head, get the munchies, then remembered they'd given me a manky chicken and emmental sarnie too so scoffed that down.....maybe a bit too quick 

[jamtomorrow]

 

[DoINeedOne]

4 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

 

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-to-exit-rosneft-shareholding.html
 

More info here

[geordie_lurch]

20 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

 

As I was speculating and I'd already set up my stop losses as I can see BP losing 20% tomorrow but who knows as gold and silver have dropped in all this madness!

As Jim Pickard says in a later tweet...

"who will the buyer be and at what price"

I think BP will survive this obviously but if I can buy my current shares back for 20% less in a few days then I will try.

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, nirvana said:

christ I've had THE most horrendous indigestion! AND I had to stop mid bowl of banana and honey to have a crap!

This is most unlike me.......wait til I have a word with Stigette of the dump next week!

Mind you I did get totally off my head, get the munchies, then remembered they'd given me a manky chicken and emmental sarnie too so scoffed that down.....maybe a bit too quick 

Well, I can say one thing, I am not having a chicken Kiev for tea again anytime soon.

Wife popped into Gregg's yesterday just before closing, everything reduced to clear, she bought half the shop, makes a change from more shoes.

Chicken and bacon baguette for tea tonight.

[nirvana]

that's a nice table top mate, I had to take my photo on the floor, cos my kitchen top is totally covered so I should probs stop talking tuddle and go with cleaning more......and that tomato looks totally gorgeous, so I'm off before I start eating my monitor, enjoy!

[Shamone]

8 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

chicken Kiev

I spent many a night shift making them. 

[moneyscam]

16 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

As I was speculating and I'd already set up my stop losses as I can see BP losing 20% tomorrow but who knows as gold and silver have dropped in all this madness!

As Jim Pickard says in a later tweet...

"who will the buyer be and at what price"ho will the buyer be and at what price"

I think BP will survive this obviously but if I can buy my current shares back for 20% less in a few days then I will try.

Arse, range of loss estimated £3-6 bn so you could be right. Got £18K in them so can stomach the loss, still don't like it.

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, Shamone said:

I spent many a night shift making them. 

I hope you weren't wearing that glove.

[nirvana]

good coming on here BP on my radar again lol

found a note from Valerie too whilst tidying lol, I think I need to go on the 'camper van' lookout again for the summer......no decent totty around here......

[Shamone]

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I hope you weren't wearing that glove.

Blue gloves. One shift one of the nutters there kept putting his false teeth down the line. They were bread and battered and nearly went through the fryer.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

I.m struggling to understand how much of this is gov outrage and how much is posturing to voters on all sides 

It's the great reset, phase covid+1!

[Harley]

45 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

 

After a recent call from a government minister.  I wonder what the deal was.  BP is a strange company, like the John Lewis of the O&G sector!

[Option5]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

After a recent call from a government minister.  I wonder what the deal was.  BP is a strange company, like the John Lewis of the O&G sector!

I've worked in the oil and gas industry since 1980. It has long been said that BP made money despite all their efforts to fail. They are the only company I have never directly worked for by choice. I always considered them badly managed and unsafe to work for.

[DoINeedOne]

Again two tweets which can mean two different things

need to find source and what they actually plan to do