Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

 

I don't follow, the I in SWIFT means international, the EU couldn't do shit directly to Moscow or China anyway 

yeah but it's based in Belgium so the EU fukkers could probs do something with the puters....or think they can lol

Off to dream of buying BP sub £3......good luck y'all

[Loki]

Just now, nirvana said:

yeah but it's based in Belgium so the EU fukkers could probs do something with the puters....or think they can lol

Off to dream of buying BP sub £3......good luck y'all

Oh right, maybe then.  I expect they're stupid enough to try and make Putin say (In Russian) GAS TURN OFF NOW

[dnb24]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The main worry is Putin has made a huge mistake and a caged Honey Badger is nasty

I think Putins probably made plans over the past 8 years ready for this. Biden gave him the go ahead on the 25th Jan, hoping to strengthen NATO through a unilateral agreement (based on fear) through the Baltic etc. I think Putin takes the Donbas, there will be an agreement with Ukraine- Ukraine becomes a neutral country (as per Switzerland) with Ukraine doing very well from acting as a buffer between East and West. Biden gets a strengthened NATO (for whatever that’s worth). May be wrong on this, but nothing I’m seeing seems hot headed reaction from either side- the chess moves are being well telegraphed- which to me indicates an agreement will be made.

[nirvana]

this sounds bad hmmmm

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, dnb24 said:

I think Putins probably made plans over the past 8 years ready for this. Biden gave him the go ahead on the 25th Jan, hoping to strengthen NATO through a unilateral agreement (based on fear) through the Baltic etc. I think Putin takes the Donbas, there will be an agreement with Ukraine- Ukraine becomes a neutral country (as per Switzerland) with Ukraine doing very well from acting as a buffer between East and West. Biden gets a strengthened NATO (for whatever that’s worth). May be wrong on this, but nothing I’m seeing seems hot headed reaction from either side- the chess moves are being well telegraphed- which to me indicates an agreement will be made.

I think thats the likely outcome,and a good outcome for everyone.Putin saves face by getting those "Russian" areas back ,likely his plan.West looks good for "saving" Ukraine,government can go fiscal mad in case "those ruskies" try it again.Everything about this cycle is about inflation,and being whipsawed out of inflation assets will likely do massive damage.

[HousePriceMania]

Been skiing in Italy last week, have i missed much? 

[feed]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Been skiing in Italy last week, have i missed much? 

Not really, the broccoli from lidl is good value.  

[Majorpain]

12 minutes ago, nirvana said:

this sounds bad hmmmm

 

There are two ways it looks likely to go wrong:

1.  Banks can make payments out of Swift but its not quick and its not easy, if EU cant keep up payments at best Russia will want money up front for energy, at worst physical transfers of "stuff" that will bypass swift completely.

2.  Russia has minimal debt and big surplus, that $200bn is currently greasing Eurodollar markets in Europe with ample liquidity.  Pull the plug on that and European banks suddenly find there is a gaping hole of a $200bn liquidity crisis.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, feed said:

Not really, the broccoli from lidl is good value.  

🤣🤣👍👍👍

 

just catching up, fuck, it's all gone mental!!! 

I have some poly shares and would have bough more at 600 if I'd been here last week. 

Gazprom was on my wish list too. 

And... Was almost tempted by evraz. 

 

Probably a good week to have missed

I have a load of bp so need to decide what to do there before 8am.

My shorts are doing well though. Can't win them all though. 

Im going to stay up or get up early to see what Asia does. 

 

 

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Is this one an over reaction?

In total i bought 15 grands worth of Russian shares on Thurs/Fri, and i cant but help think its one of my worst financial decisions.

Maybe its all just been overblown at the weekend and things will calm down, but i don't see my getting that money back for a while, maybe never.

Whats your timescale?

5 years is a long time in geopolitics

[HousePriceMania]

From what I'm looking at now, i think it is safe to say the markets are rigged. 

 

Read a good quote on TOS just then along the lines of... 

 

If the rumour tonight is of nuclear war, buy the rumour, if its wrong you'll make a fortune, if its right you won't have to worry about it. 

 

We might not be facing nuclear war but we are facing a financial calamity with the bankers refusing to address inflation.

 

I'll be buying tomorrow, the only question is, will i try and sell first. 

[geordie_lurch]

This is another good article on Zerohedge likening the Russia swift stuff to the Lehman weekend. This week's going to be memorable I think... https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pozsar-warns-another-lehman-weekend-russia-sanctions-may-trigger-central-bank-liquidity

Lehman weekend 2.0

Which brings us to the punchline of Pozsar's warning: "there is no difference between Lehman unable to pay back money funds because its tri-party clearing agent is unwilling to unwind o/n repo trades, and banks unable to receive and make payments because they are out of SWIFT." He then adds that the Herstatt risk – or settlement risk – owes its name to a mishap at a single bank, but "the risk in the current  scenario involves an entire country’s banking system."

And here comes Pozsar with another Lehman analogy:

Banks’ inability to make payments due to their exclusion from SWIFT is the same as Lehman’s inability to make payments due to its clearing bank’s unwillingness to send payments on its behalf. History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes….

[Harley]

2 hours ago, planit said:

• bp will exit its 19.75% shareholding in Rosneft.
• Both bp-nominated directors to resign from Rosneft board with immediate effect.
• bp will no longer report reserves, production or profit for Rosneft.
• Changes in accounting treatment of Rosneft shareholding expected to lead to a material non-cash charge.
• bp’s financial frame and distribution guidance remains unchanged.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-to-exit-rosneft-shareholding.html

 

This reads like BP's solution is to pretend it doesn't own 20% of Rosneft. Sounds like this is to placate the politicians and wokesters. The wording is all carefully constructed in order to manage the fallout from the public focus on this stake. Perhaps we should be looking at who was heavily shorting BP last week.

Notice BP is not saying it will perform a fire-sale which would not be in the interests of shareholders. The accounting changes are due to it being held as an "asset for sale" instead of an integral part of their business. They still have the opportunity to change their mind and reinstate it if it all blows over (but I doubt they will due to their green changes).

 

 

I for one am more worried about Looney's green agenda than I was before, whilst BP kept that stake it showed they weren't going ESG insane.

I also think this is going to get slaughtered in early trading tomorrow as the way it's worded is very negative sounding. They had already pissed off all the O&G investors so this will clearly not help and on top of that they are still a long way from attracting any ESG investors.

I would be happy if they did an extra $2bn of buybacks tomorrow with all the cash they are making.

 

Even though I have too many BP shares (through options) I will be buying if I can get them less than 320.

If we are trying to pinpoint the bottom tomorrow I will pick 308p. 

The covered calls I sold on Friday look like a good move 

As much as I like buying at a discount, this company is a dud to me.  Congrats to anyone who managed to feck them over for a profit before they fecked you.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, planit said:

 

Does anyone else believe Russia is making out like bandits by using all the oil profits to buy Russian companies at pennies on the pound?

All this virtue signalling is very expensive to the companies and countries carrying it out.

There was a podcast on this subject.  The scope for Russians to make a fortune (PMs, etc too) has been huge.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah I didn't see events like Germany finally getting it's act together on defence, or central bank being sanctioned coming. I'm going to take a hit this week I think, but I'm delighted to see NATO strengthening, because the amazing Ukrainians have shamed them into it. You'd almost forgotten what a real leader looked like. I'm going to keep Gaz and Poly long term, I'm well diversified so not a big hit overall, but JRS ...hmmm... I'll have to think about that one. 

The German pivot iis a really big deal macro wise imo. I really didn't think they had it in them. Nothing like ranks rolling across the Steppe to focus minds, thank God Merkel isn't there. All of this is going to feed into commodity prices and inflation of course. I wonder what precious metals will make of it this week. Good luck to all!

 

 

God, i hate conspiracy theories, but by God this is convenient for the western central bankers, yet again

 

Ill have my 10% of something than 100% of nothing, thanks 

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Whats your timescale?

5 years is a long time in geopolitics

Emigrating in August, but looking to buy by the end of the year, then rent it out and use that to pay my rent overseas!

Should there be an agreement between Ukraine/Russia in the next few days/weeks then presumably all these shares will go ballistic again and maybe i make some money .... as i imply ive been a silly boy to be gambling money that's meant for stability, so will make this my last time. If i was at home i don't believe i'd have been so stupid.

 

 

 

 

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

 but JRS ...hmmm... I'll have to think about that one. 

That was a schoolboy error buying that, can see POLY,GAZ, LUKOIL bouncing if peace is reached, but some of the stuff in there will be getting decimated with the ruble imploding.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

They could drive the price higher by selling oil for gold on very favourable terms? Increase the buying power of their gold reserves and cause a headache for the west who want the gold price suppressed.

Interesting thread...

 

Now which countries (really, both ways) have the gold.......!

[HousePriceMania]

On 24/02/2022 at 10:57, Hunty said:

Nursing some pain today, will wait for the Yanks to open to see what and when to buy. 

A lesson to any new investors; spread your risk, the screen grab will never be forgotten. RIP.

 

Jesus Hunty. I hope your okay. That's proper crazy. 

I though Putin was bluffing and the Yankers were doing a WMD or I'd have sold out. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Putin can demand payment in gold, bitcoin or tiddlywinks. It's a seller's market.

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

 

These fucking clowns 🤦🤦🤦

[Plan-b]

36 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Been skiing in Italy last week, have i missed much? 

Yeh house prices dropped by 80%, but have since gone back up. So we all dipped our bread and are BTL millionaires, other than that it's been pretty quiet. Hope you had a nice time.! 

[DurhamBorn]

Russian Military's radio station UVB-76, also known as "the buzzer", has been COMPLETELY HIJACKED!! UKRANIAN EUROVISION SONGS ARE PLAYING ON FREQUENCY!!!!

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yeh house prices dropped by 80%, but have since gone back up. So we all dipped our bread and are BTL millionaires, other than that it's been pretty quiet. Hope you had a nice time.! 

Offered on a ski apartment when i was away. Will offer to pay in Russian shares 

[Harley]

51 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think thats the likely outcome,and a good outcome for everyone.Putin saves face by getting those "Russian" areas back ,likely his plan.West looks good for "saving" Ukraine,government can go fiscal mad in case "those ruskies" try it again.Everything about this cycle is about inflation,and being whipsawed out of inflation assets will likely do massive damage.

Putin doesn't need to save face.  It's not for us to judge his success.  That's for him against his objectives, which seem obvious to the grown ups.  There is a deal to be done, one that could have been done before or indeed avoided all together.  The risk is the "West" does not do it, which leads you to wondering why, which in turn leads you on to a lot more worrisome a place which is where people should be preparing to put their energies.  No-one seems to have learnt anything in the last two years (covid) and longer (financial malarkey).  People play the game put in front of them, not the real one in play, so nearly always lose.  This is not about who I support or not, this is about having a professional mindset about the financials (and more but that's not for here).  Both sides have gamed this and will get what they want.  We are the patsies.