Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Castlevania]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Russian Military's radio station UVB-76, also known as "the buzzer", has been COMPLETELY HIJACKED!! UKRANIAN EUROVISION SONGS ARE PLAYING ON FREQUENCY!!!!

That reminds me of the documentary I watched years ago which argued the Eurovision Song Contest bought down the USSR.

[HousePriceMania]

Hang on, just checked on my bitcoin investments....

Have broken even, bought £0 stll have £0.

Fecking hell, lot to be said about getting away from the Internet for a week. 

Hedge against inflation my arse, scam. 

 

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

33 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I'll be buying tomorrow, the only question is, will i try and sell first. 

Makes no difference, selling ladders at the top or buying at bottom end are much the same thing.

[HousePriceMania]

If we invade France can we get out of the euro vision too? 

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Makes no difference, selling ladders at the top or buying at bottom end are much the same thing.

Depends where the top and bottom are. Us stock market could easily fall 80% at some point abs stay down for decades. You ain't laddering into that scenario 

[Hancock]

15 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Maybe so. I bought it for yield on the commodity heavy Russian economy, I don't expect most of the businesses in it to stop making money. Some in it will make even more money, the banks obviously not. I love buying distressed assets so I have no problem with that really. I'm more concerned about getting nationalised or otherwise kicked out at a stupid price. The companies in that fund mostly make dollars, not rubles. Let's see how many are prevented from making dollars first. And I think the Ruble might surprise people too when the real money comes in tomorrow and coming days. It's 40% backed by gold, effectively.

And I think peace will be reached. Putin is acting like a senile old man, and the Russians are well versed in stabbing their leader when no longer useful. Hopefully reached soon. Young men getting slaughtered because of stupid old men, same as always. I genuinely cannot wait for the Biden/Putin/Pelosi generation to just fuck off. They've had the easiest run in history, and generally just make everything worse.

Yes but just got to see Liz Truss today with her comment about supporting Brits going over there to fight the Russians, to see the next generation of politicians will be the same as the last. 

I bought £4k of JRS and £3k of the HSBC Russia ETF, according to the HL App i'm 10% up on the JRS so have set a price to see if i can get most my money back on that ... if not will just hold for a while, as this insanity has to end, as the US arent going to get involved, and Germany/France/UK are pathetic without the help of the US.

 

[Errol]

Please note:

 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

There are two ways it looks likely to go wrong:

1.  Banks can make payments out of Swift but its not quick and its not easy, if EU cant keep up payments at best Russia will want money up front for energy, at worst physical transfers of "stuff" that will bypass swift completely.

2.  Russia has minimal debt and big surplus, that $200bn is currently greasing Eurodollar markets in Europe with ample liquidity.  Pull the plug on that and European banks suddenly find there is a gaping hole of a $200bn liquidity crisis.

Repo market anyone?  Wasn't that one reason cited for the plandemic?  It's as if they now want the financial system to "crash".  As they say, "new slide please".

[HousePriceMania]

BP doing an Abramovich? 

 

Chelsea trustees have not agreed to run club after Roman Abramovich move

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60549390

 

? 

 

 

[Plan-b]

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Depends where the top and bottom are. Us stock market could easily fall 80% at some point abs stay down for decades. You ain't laddering into that scenario 

True,but contrarians tend to start their buys in areas already down by a lot.I worked out my ladders during the Covid crash and it turned out when/if stocks were down 70% from highs i would be down around 15% before divs.As @Harley always warns ,falls dont concern me,but outright theft does.I have little exposure to Russia,BP the main one,but they have removed one of the best locations for hedging inflation away from everyone.Worse people who positioned there for it get slammed.Is this currency control on Russia,or on us ?.Is this all to ensure everyone falls into line of the green agenda?.

What i do know is investing is harder now than its ever been,not so much the companies,but governments deciding whats good,whats bad etc.Very worrying for the kids and grandkids,

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Do you have a link for that? Looks handy 

Here you go .. https://www.investing.com/tools/market-hours

 

[Harley]

48 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Putin can demand payment in gold, bitcoin or tiddlywinks. It's a seller's market.

I don't get it and can only think @Cattle Prod might know.  I assume Germany and co need Russian hydrocarbons.  Is there anywhere else they can get enough?  Of course, what is 'enough" given they may use such a situation to further any domestic (globalist?) agenda via shortages?  If not, I assume they held out on the SWIFT stuff until a scheme was found to pay for the Russian stuff, which would have likely involved some agreement with the Russians as well as US.  But now they're going to supply weapons to those fighting the Russians?  Either there is an elaborate deal with the Russians and joe public are the patsies or they are locked and loaded on another agenda in which fuel shortages, etc play a key role, in which scenario joe public is again the patsy!  So a lot hinges on how they can source their hydrocarbons (and how much they are planning to need). 

[Calcutta]

45 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

 

These fucking clowns 🤦🤦🤦

Can't wait till I show the kids our new house and tell them a funny little man called Ed Milliband bought it for us. Might even put a picture of him up in the shitter. Cheers Ed! 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

What i do know is investing is harder now than its ever been,not so much the companies,but governments deciding whats good,whats bad etc.Very worrying for the kids and grandkids,

Maybe thats what i'm getting at, making it too much hassle for the reward, and the reward for us amateurs can very possibly be a loss.

I earned enough money to pay the rent for 1 year by being here for 10 days, but its possibly going to be eaten up by "investing" aka "gambling".

Get a house, and work just enough to keep the mind ticking over, is the way forward ... and stick whats left in some simple ETF that hopefully tracks inflation over a 10 year timeline.

If a March 2020 BK happens in the meantime, then the strategy may change again!

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

joe public are the patsies

Whatever happens you can 'take that to the bank' 

[HousePriceMania]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

True,but contrarians tend to start their buys in areas already down by a lot.I worked out my ladders during the Covid crash and it turned out when/if stocks were down 70% from highs i would be down around 15% before divs.As @Harley always warns ,falls dont concern me,but outright theft does.I have little exposure to Russia,BP the main one,but they have removed one of the best locations for hedging inflation away from everyone.Worse people who positioned there for it get slammed.Is this currency control on Russia,or on us ?.Is this all to ensure everyone falls into line of the green agenda?.

What i do know is investing is harder now than its ever been,not so much the companies,but governments deciding whats good,whats bad etc.Very worrying for the kids and grandkids,

All roads lead to the de regulated bankers 

Their system has been broken since 2007, we all know that. 

They are losing control and throwing everything at keeping it going. Maybe pootin knows this is a great time to bring the west down, maybe they're all banker puppets, though pootin seems to be his own man. 

This is not a normal situation, has not been for some time. 

If you're not worried you're not stood back far enough looking at this shit show, i mean on what fucking planet should rates be -0.5% to 0.5% with inflation at 10%

I've hedged against inflation best I can, currently 10% in commodity shares, 5% in property, 20% in index linked bonds, 10% in pensions, 5% in pms. Have offered on a ski apartment, that's another 10% going, that leaves 40% in cash this year which is all going into 1 or 2 houses in the uk, most likely with a 40% mortgage and a Scottish forest

A 50% drop in shares won't kill me but 50% inflation will. 

Its time to stop hoping for the best and prepare for the worst 

[Hancock]

From 2015-

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/02/03/putin-on-track-to-nationalize-companies-expert.html

Russia is on a path to greater nationalization of private business, and the country has become a “value trap,” Hermitage Capital Management CEO William Browder told CNBC on Tuesday.

As a result, there is little value to be found in the country for investors, the outspoken critic of President Vladimir Putin said in a CNBC “Squawk Box” interview.

“It’s a value trap right now. Low price-to-earnings ratio only helps you if you get those earnings in the end,” Browder said. “None of that money is going to come to you. You’re either going to lose it from capital controls, from expropriation, or from fraud.”

Russia is facing its worst currency crisis since 1998, and manufacturing has fallen to the lowest level in 5½ years.

Read More

In the near term, Browder expects Russia to impose currency and capital controls to stem the ruble’s decline, a drawdown in foreign reserves and the flight of cash out of the country. “Every day that they say there’s not going to be capital controls is one day closer to them imposing capital controls,” he said.

Those capital controls will only spur Russians to send more money abroad, he added. This will in turn cause Putin, with no money left in the country, to find ways of expropriating and nationalizing more companies.

“Some investors say, ‘Bill, you made your money in Russia when it was cheap,’ and I’m saying now, ‘It’s cheap for a very good reason,’” he said.

Browder is the author of “Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder and One Man’s Fight for Justice.” The book recounts his experience doing business in Russia, his battles with Putin and the death of Browder’s imprisoned colleague Sergei Magnitsky. He founded the Hermitage Fund in Moscow in 1996, and it grew to become the largest investment fund in the country.

Whether conditions continue to deteriorate in Russia depends largely on whether the price of oil remains low, he said. The Russian government relies heavily on oil exports from state-owned firms to underwrite spending.

The cost of crude has fallen as much as 60 percent in the last seven months, but bounced about 11 percent during the last two trading sessions.

Economic conditions are also tied to the situation in Ukraine, where Putin has backed rebels in eastern Ukraine. The United States and Europe have imposed escalating sanctions on Russia related to its role in the conflict.

Read More Sanctions on Russia are ‘economic war’

Brower also sees a risk of Russia pitting European Union members against one another at a time when the monetary union is facing disagreements over the terms of bailout packages and austerity measures dating to the financial crisis.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told CNBC that Russia would consider giving financial help to debt-ridden Greece just days after the new anti-austerity Greek government questioned further European Union sanctions against Russia.

“Thankfully at least at this stage in the game, Greece has got enough sense not to go along with that plan,” Brower said.

[CannonFodder]

Javier has an interesting take. EU and US want energy payments to continue but banks going further as not wanting the risk of distinguishing between energy and non energy on themselves.

I.ve been reading lots of sites on the war and the bbc is making a big thing of russian losses but the russians are still advancing fast. Its whether things will calm done quickly once shooting stops.

 

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Maybe thats what i'm getting at, making it too much hassle for the reward, and the reward for us amateurs can very possibly be a loss.

 

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, share price goes up, war, share prices go up, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, shares go up, global economic pandemic collapse, share prices go up. 

You seemingly can't loose, got to wonder whats the payback for all this free money 

[AWW]

28 minutes ago, Errol said:

Please note:

 

 

Slightly confusing tweet, given that you bid to buy and offer to sell - are they going to prevent foreigners buying or selling Russian securities?

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, AWW said:

Slightly confusing tweet, given that you bid to buy and offer to sell - are they going to prevent foreigners buying or selling Russian securities?

id say they are using BIDs there as attempts, rather than BID/OFFER in the sharedealing sense, who in their right mind would be buying this shit in this situation?

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, share price goes up, war, share prices go up, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, shares go up, global economic pandemic collapse, share prices go up. 

You seemingly can't loose, got to wonder whats the payback for all this free money 

Also...

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, gold price goes down, war, gold price goes down, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, gold price goes down, global economic pandemic collapse, gold price goes down. 

[Metalheadz]

I think a lot of people are going to be hurt buying this Russia "dip". The ruble could be toilet paper in a few weeks. POLY is in a downtrend since Sep 2020 I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot clown pole.

For every one of these Russian companies getting jammed up with sanctions there are 5 companies elsewhere that will directly benefit.

I'm buying tankers, fertiliser, nickel, aluminium co's and sleeping like a baby.

[Hancock]

Slightly more of a sane opening than i thought