Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[leonardratso]

crudes up 7%

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Also...

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, gold price goes down, war, gold price goes down, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, gold price goes down, global economic pandemic collapse, gold price goes down. 

The fact it's controlled so tightly tells you what it really is, a hedge against central banks excesses and hubris and their Kryptonite. It will still be there at the end.

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Also...

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, gold price goes down, war, gold price goes down, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, gold price goes down, global economic pandemic collapse, gold price goes down. 

100% this ^^^^

 

its like some out of control psychopathic bankers are buying up everything, governments included, with magicked up cash 😂😂😂

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

What i do know is investing is harder now than its ever been,not so much the companies,but governments deciding whats good,whats bad etc.Very worrying for the kids and grandkids,

Russel Napier.

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

crudes up 7%

Fuck. 

Sorry for being so crude 

[Errol]

6 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

The fact it's controlled so tightly tells you what it really is, a hedge against central banks excesses and hubris and their Kryptonite. It will still be there at the end.

It will be controlled until the day it isn't.

When that day comes the gold you hold will be the only gold you'll ever get. 

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

crudes up 7%

So in current manipulated market that'll equate to 10% drop in bt share prices 😜

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Look at it this way, we all need Russian hydrocarbons. Without their oil, the world goes into a ~5mbpd deficit, inventories dissapear in months, world goes into a depression, oil is $300+ a barrel. Gas wise, Europe freezes. Those hydrocarbons have to enter the system, there is no other source to replace them. Even if all sold to China, leaving other supplies for us. 

So Putin can say I'll sell you 100 barrels of oil for an oz of gold. Nothing stopping this. It means that oil in dollar terms is suddenly $20, or gold is $10,000. Buyers will scramble to find gold to buy this cheap oil, right? And more importantly, they've already been doing so while it was cheap (central banks have). Physical gold gets drained from the west and goes to Russia. Petrodollar system smashed.

I think elaborate deal. You can't print oil, and I don't think the western politicians get this yet. I've seen too many "we should frack the UK" comments for my liking, no, you can't. It's all a bit bombastic and I have an uneasy feeling that the same pro lockdown crowd are the ones now pro Ukraine Russia bad tell Saudi to open de taps frack Yorkshire and just put solar panels on every roof. This is far from being played out. 

Indeed.

If Putin blows the gold/oil offer out on the table, we'll all know that the goal is NOT the Ukraine, but the US dollar as reserve currency.

If he does, whoooah momma.  Then you'll see the gloves come off from the US deep state.

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Metalheadz said:

I think a lot of people are going to be hurt buying this Russia "dip". The ruble could be toilet paper in a few weeks. POLY is in a downtrend since Sep 2020 I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot clown pole.

For every one of these Russian companies getting jammed up with sanctions there are 5 companies elsewhere that will directly benefit.

I'm buying tankers, fertiliser, nickel, aluminium co's and sleeping like a baby.

Buried in the German thing on defence spending was building more LNG terminals ,gas isnt in the right places until it is shipped there.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Indeed.

If Putin blows the gold/oil offer out on the table, we'll all know that the goal is NOT the Ukraine, but the US dollar as reserve currency.

If he does, whoooah momma.  Then you'll see the gloves come off from the US deep state.

Bit of a tangent post, but have a read on Putin from the eyes of a Irish/scot 

 

https://philmacgiollabhain.ie/2022/02/25/how-i-learned-to-be-ukrainian-in-a-mayo-hedge-school/

 

Interesting perspective.  Putin linked to deutche bank 

 

 

 

[Metalheadz]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Buried in the German thing on defence spending was building more LNG terminals ,gas isnt in the right places until it is shipped there.

Germany is having a "Road To Damascus" weekend...

Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span - economy minister

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-mulls-extending-nuclear-plants-life-span-economy-minister-2022-02-27/

Germany is weighing whether to extend the life-span of its remaining nuclear power plants as a way to secure the country's energy supply in the face of uncertainty over Russian gas supplies, the country's economy minister said.

[HousePriceMania]

Putin has the west over an oil barrel. 

 

Who'll blink first, psycho Russian ex kgb leader or fat boris of the uturn tory party? 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

If we invade France can we get out of the euro vision too? 

Belgium would be much easier.

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Belgium would be much easier.

Easier than the French? 

 

[moneyscam]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Look at it this way, we all need Russian hydrocarbons. Without their oil, the world goes into a ~5mbpd deficit, inventories dissapear in months, world goes into a depression, oil is $300+ a barrel. Gas wise, Europe freezes. Those hydrocarbons have to enter the system, there is no other source to replace them. Even if all sold to China, leaving other supplies for us. 

So Putin can say I'll sell you 100 barrels of oil for an oz of gold. Nothing stopping this. It means that oil in dollar terms is suddenly $20, or gold is $10,000. Buyers will scramble to find gold to buy this cheap oil, right? And more importantly, they've already been doing so while it was cheap (central banks have). Physical gold gets drained from the west and goes to Russia. Petrodollar system smashed.

I think elaborate deal. You can't print oil, and I don't think the western politicians get this yet. I've seen too many "we should frack the UK" comments for my liking, no, you can't. It's all a bit bombastic and I have an uneasy feeling that the same pro lockdown crowd are the ones now pro Ukraine Russia bad tell Saudi to open de taps frack Yorkshire and just put solar panels on every roof. This is far from being played out. 

I'd expect the pro lockdown crowd as you described to be this ignorant and short sighted but not the bloody politicians who should know better.

I think the move to freeze central bank reserves is an even bigger act of economic warfare than removing them from Swift was. I can't find any detail as to how much of their reserves are and where they're held. I've just seen Josep Borell of EU just saying we can't do anything about their reserves held in Russia and China. If you knew you were going invade and there would this be this kind of reaction, you'd hope you'd have repatriated the bulk of it prior to this. No point building up a reserves war chest of $600bn to then let your enemies simply freeze it abroad. If they haven't done this, then they are as thick as our lot of leaders.

There are limits of course but I do expect Russia to use the leverage of the importance of their supply as you've described to either restrict the supply or demand the oil / gold ratio type of payment. As Ed Dowd warned, you don't mess with the $ plumbing in such a cavalier way. Will be a volatile and wild week!

[CannonFodder]

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022722-saudi-crown-prince-says-kingdom-still-committed-to-opec-oil-agreement-with-russia

OPEC refuses to take up russian slack, west needs to deal with russia. China states it will buy more russian wheat, looks like the West is having difficulties.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/02/25/business/wheat-russia-china-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

 

These fucking clowns 🤦🤦🤦

Fuck him and his (polo) lot.  I said more but that's enough.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Easier than the French? 

 

Yes. We would run out of fuel trying to cross France. Belgium we could manage.

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Yes. We would run out of fuel trying to cross France. Belgium we could manage.

You'd only need to get to Dover before the French capitulated though 😋

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Please note:

 

 

Well that's one less thing to worry about tomorrow!  Sod the selling, I trust we all know what we should be buying tomorrow!

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Small correction, OPEC doesn't have the slack. And western politicians don't seem to know this (or are ignoring their intelligence services who do know this).

Who remembers the end of communist ussr, has the feeling of that about what we might be seeing here... end of rigged market capitalist usa. 

 

Nothing lasts forever 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Do you have a link for that? Looks handy 

I use this one.  App also available.

https://market24hclock.com/#_

[wherebee]

18 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

I'd expect the pro lockdown crowd as you described to be this ignorant and short sighted but not the bloody politicians who should know better.

I think the move to freeze central bank reserves is an even bigger act of economic warfare than removing them from Swift was. I can't find any detail as to how much of their reserves are and where they're held. I've just seen Josep Borell of EU just saying we can't do anything about their reserves held in Russia and China. If you knew you were going invade and there would this be this kind of reaction, you'd hope you'd have repatriated the bulk of it prior to this. No point building up a reserves war chest of $600bn to then let your enemies simply freeze it abroad. If they haven't done this, then they are as thick as our lot of leaders.

There are limits of course but I do expect Russia to use the leverage of the importance of their supply as you've described to either restrict the supply or demand the oil / gold ratio type of payment. As Ed Dowd warned, you don't mess with the $ plumbing in such a cavalier way. Will be a volatile and wild week!

Or you set in place ownership transfer under the table.

What if china rocks up to the Fed and BoE tomorrow and says - hang on, that money is OURS - here is a contract from december where russia swapped that for equal amounts of reserves in Beijing.

What the fuck would the western puppets do then/

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Maybe so. I bought it for yield on the commodity heavy Russian economy, I don't expect most of the businesses in it to stop making money. Some in it will make even more money, the banks obviously not. I love buying distressed assets so I have no problem with that really. I'm more concerned about getting nationalised or otherwise kicked out at a stupid price. The companies in that fund mostly make dollars, not rubles. Let's see how many are prevented from making dollars first. And I think the Ruble might surprise people too when the real money comes in tomorrow and coming days. It's 40% backed by gold, effectively.

And I think peace will be reached. Putin is acting like a senile old man, and the Russians are well versed in stabbing their leader when no longer useful. Hopefully reached soon. Young men getting slaughtered because of stupid old men, same as always. I genuinely cannot wait for the Biden/Putin/Pelosi generation to just fuck off. They've had the easiest run in history, and generally just make everything worse.

'Stabbing their leader' you say? I think it may take a little more effort to despatch Vlad... maybe first poison, then stabbing, lastly shooting - the Russians call this 'doing a Rasputin'!

[Harley]

57 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Its time to stop hoping for the best and prepare for the worst 

It's going to be a scrabble.  That time was best earlier.  I said so way back.  But it takes a lot to front run something.  Decades of bruises in my case.  I'm probably still fecked though.  That was a nice list to get people thinking.