Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Majorpain]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Yes same, i got an email telling me the stop loss was cancelled.

Poly is down 59% now ... fuck!

Not even a dead cat bounce, she's sliding all right.  200's is on the cards which is starting to tempt me.

[Boon]

5 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Despite everything going on Gold and silver are still not even moving

Who doesn't benefit from high metals prices? It just seems that even the big rise last week meets a lot of resistance.

I would expect further falls today if there are mentions of peace talks.

Hard to know what to believe but gut feeling is that Russia might have envisioned what happened in Afghanistan would also occur but it hasn't actually gone like that and there may be a diplomatic solution.

Where was the massive amount of public support for the Afghan people when the Taliban were doing the same? And I would bet that worse atrocities to civilians were being carried out.

[Mapper]

POLY is now The Russian Play to me.

More specifically, The Nutcracker.

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Could well be, but that will cause an economic depression unless there is massive printing. 

Yes, it would need massive printing.  They'll love it!

[geordie_lurch]

Not thought of it like this until reading this tweet - the Ruble is now worth less than 1 US cent! I can't see the Russian's standing for this for more than a few weeks - worrying times for all of us though

 

[belfastchild]

9 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Not even a dead cat bounce, she's sliding all right.  200's is on the cards which is starting to tempt me.

Ajbell wont sell to me ;-) Probably just as well.

Came up at 290 something and Id an order in for 365 and they still didnt fulfill it.
So if you cant sell and cant buy....

[Green Devil]

15 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Stop losses on riskier assets. I’ve learnt the hard way over the years. Russian assets have turned into crypto volatility, so I treat them as the same.

Ive probably missed something, but a lot of you all seem to be holding russian gas oil etc companies. Was there a reason for this? Purely the dividend yield? Was this a recommendation of the thread earlier or are you just scalping the swings?

[Sidd]

Bought another 1300 poly shares at 3.63. Last tranch was at 5.63. Average now is 4.42.

 

I either lose this all or make a decent return. Most likely the former knowing its me.

[Democorruptcy]

22 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Yes today was always going to be the panic day, see how negotiations go in the coming days and weeks. Hope my 7k loss doesn't get larger.

Chill mate, it's only red figures on a screen. Have you thought about covering the red ones with black masking tape?

[HousePriceMania]

I knew @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker returning spelt doom for us all 

[Sidd]

Also i couldnt buy all the shares in one go i had to buy in 2 tranches, obviously costing me fees twice but i thought it small change considering the amount i was buying and the potential loss / gains. It wouldnt quote me all at once on HL.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

Yes.Also uk.investing.com

I doubt those prices are as live

[HousePriceMania]

Is anyone laddering down into Poly ?

 

[CVG]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

I doubt those prices are as live

They start moving at 8:00 in the morning, so I have no reason to doubt them

[Harley]

28 minutes ago, Boon said:

Who doesn't benefit from high metals prices? It just seems that even the big rise last week meets a lot of resistance.

I would expect further falls today if there are mentions of peace talks.

Hard to know what to believe but gut feeling is that Russia might have envisioned what happened in Afghanistan would also occur but it hasn't actually gone like that and there may be a diplomatic solution.

Where was the massive amount of public support for the Afghan people when the Taliban were doing the same? And I would bet that worse atrocities to civilians were being carried out.

Probably one of the many news stories not currently being read but the Taliban are reported to be going house to house.  Getting back on topic, of course Vlad wants a deal.  He probably always did.  Alas, one is now harder to reach and the price has gone up.  The West is playing catch up.  Can they make the jump or will they stay on the back foot and keep doubling down?  But regardless, it will be hard to get a quick resolution.  Vlad would probably let the shiteposters believe this was their Afgan as they have better things to occupy themselves with than such Western obsessions.  It would be prudent to game an investing/trading approach should one be reached (and one if it isn't because that means we should be fearing what our own are up to).  The current talking heads who know shite about Vlad (and most everything else of worth) could be preparing one of the best opportunities for the focused minds.

[Sidd]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone laddering down into Poly ?

 

I just did and if only to prove to myself I have balls of steel. 

[SpectrumFX]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone laddering down into Poly ?

 

I was, but I've stopped for now.

I might buy some more, but I'll probably leave it until later in the week now.

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone laddering down into Poly ?

I will.  I've learnt to trade the dumps as a way of mitigating investing losses.  There's a military metaphor (even a Youtube clip I nearly posted) but I'm sick of that shite.

[jamtomorrow]

23 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Despite everything going on Gold and silver are still not even moving

Market front-running what might have to happen to defend the Ruble?

The $600bn war chest has taken quite the hit - only $200bn in non-sanctioned assets, physical gold and yuan - so use China as an intermediary?

I doubt they'll go full Lamont and spunk much of that into the void of the currency markets in practice, it would disappear very quickly indeed.

But how about a massive new line of credit with China, to be repaid by future O&G flows? China buys Rubles today to save the Russian economy and Putin's skin, at the cost of Russia and its energy resources becoming China's (effectively) in the longer term.

USDRUB appears to have stabilized at around 100 - *somebody* is buying

[HousePriceMania]

Funny Story,

 

I get an email 2 weeks ago from Interactive Brokers saying my limit offer to buy EVRAZ at 101 was unrealistic and I should consider adjusting it.

I've cancelled it for now.

 

EVRAZ plc

149.75 GBX

 

[DoINeedOne]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone laddering down into Poly ?

 

Yea why not, although trying to get a quote is harder work

[Noallegiance]

26 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Despite everything going on Gold and silver are still not even moving

For me it's fine.

There's so much going on at the moment.

Gold is doing it's job. The gradual debasement of currency is being accounted for as far as is possible under the current derivative price paradigm. The day that changes is when everyone behind the curve will be looking to buy what I'm gonna be selling. My exposure is in the miners and they're doing well. If DH is correct and GDX & J double/triple from here for gold to $2500, I'm looking forward to a post-bust steady climb in the physical price. Miners will be cash machines.

Sudden moves are trader moves.

Outside of the flight to safety spikes on news, a new floor is being established for the longer term. There's a gradual creep into the new cycle. We're ahead of the game.

I'd hate for it to go bananas too quick. I'd prefer the slower crawl in the physical price rather than racing off on an unsustainable path to have to back-fill price gaps. That behaviour is too volatile for what gold is.

Comparatively speaking, against everything else PMs are boring. For traders conditioned by the last 40 years this thread is boring. That's just fine.

Handle my cup baby!

 

[Harley]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Funny Story,

 

I get an email 2 weeks ago from Interactive Brokers saying my limit offer to buy EVRAZ at 101 was unrealistic and I should consider adjusting it.

I've cancelled it for now.

 

EVRAZ plc

149.75 GBX

 

Have you received their two alerts too about the "crisis".  I thought them very professional.  CYA sure but still very professional.  Off to open my ISA account today.

[Castlevania]

47 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

God that 25% divi on Poly is an evil temptress. Don't forget that bit @Hunty if you're feeling down, there has been no divi cut, no reason to cut it, and although the water is murky right now, you haven't been told you're not going to be paid it out.

Results Wednesday 

[Sidd]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

For me it's fine.

There's so much going on at the moment.

Gold is doing it's job. The gradual debasement of currency is being accounted for as far as is possible under the current derivative price paradigm. The day that changes is when everyone behind the curve will be looking to buy what I'm gonna be selling. My exposure is in the miners and they're doing well. If DH is correct and GDX & J double/triple from here for gold to $2500, I'm looking forward to a post-bust steady climb in the physical price. Miners will be cash machines.

Sudden moves are trader moves.

Outside of the flight to safety spikes on news, a new floor is being established for the longer term. There's a gradual creep into the new cycle. We're ahead of the game.

I'd hate for it to go bananas too quick. I'd prefer the slower crawl in the physical price rather than racing off on an unsustainable path to have to back-fill price gaps. That behaviour is too volatile for what gold is.

Comparatively speaking, against everything else PMs are boring. For traders conditioned by the last 40 years this thread is boring. That's just fine.

Handle my cup baby!

 

Do you still see a point where you cash out of the miners when the $2500 price hits and then buy back in lower post bust?