Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

DH not backing down

 

[Harley]

I just realised I own POLY (aka "Vlad the Impaler") on the LSE not MOEX.  No bids on the MOEX but "fine" on the LSE.  Maybe I'll join.  That's a lovely daily candle!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

DH not backing down

 

If the war is over soon it could go all 🚀🌛. More defence spending so more money printing.

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

For anyone else holding BASF, they are down 6% this morning.

Some involvement with Nord Stream 2, plus legal issues on top, causing the drop most likely...

...

I had my ladder set at 50 euros for BASF so I am waiting!

[Loki]

Dear Mr Mug Punter

Unfortunately, we have been unable to proceed with your order to invest in Polymetal International plc at a limit price of 399.99 for the following reason: no market price available, please call the dealing desk to discuss any further orders in this security.

Please note that we deal on a 'fill' or 'kill' basis. In this case we were unable to fill your order due to the reason shown above. This order has now been 'killed' and will not be held for placement at a future time. You may now place this order again online, bearing in mind the reason for this rejection.

If you have any queries regarding this email please contact us at [email protected]

Thank you for using the Hargreaves Lansdown Online Stockbroking Service.
 

Edit:  Just managed a live trade as if nothing ever happened

[23rdian]

26 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I was in at 368p, did I win? Anyone do better? Whatever happens I’ll be selling on the bounce back this afternoon if it materialises.

349 was the best price I could get. Back in profit on those. A shit load down at Freetrade. What's the point of brokers that won't take your money?

At least you expect it with Freetrade. HL sound expensive and shit.

[Harley]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If the war is over soon it could go all 🚀🌛. More defence spending so more money printing.

Now you know how I like a cup and handle and how I see them behind every tree but looking at me charts this morning, they are appearing everywhere so if this does get resolved to a buy, it could indeed be momentous.

[planit]

We are pawns in the game being played. The western leaders have initiated a media and propaganda war against Russia to try to put as much pressure on Putin as possible.*

Using the financial system (including shares) they have tried to collapse the Russian banks causing bank runs. 

The plan is to make the Russians feel their lives as they knew them are over, Ruble collapses, no flights etc etc. All this to isolate Putin and increase the chances of him making a deal today in the talks.

If this doesn't work (I think Putin was expecting this) and it's not over quickly, we have a problem as these sanctions will very quickly spill over to the energy situation. This then becomes a big own-goal for the West so Putin will be trying to draw this out and wait.

I have no idea what will happen but the amount of shit flying around on Twatter, Media and BB's is insane. 

I am calling peak FUD

 

* 50 years ago Putin would have more control of the information the population had access to. Now with social media etc the spread is almost instant and uncontrollable.

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Dear Mr Mug Punter

Unfortunately, we have been unable to proceed with your order to invest in Polymetal International plc at a limit price of 399.99 for the following reason: no market price available, please call the dealing desk to discuss any further orders in this security.

Please note that we deal on a 'fill' or 'kill' basis. In this case we were unable to fill your order due to the reason shown above. This order has now been 'killed' and will not be held for placement at a future time. You may now place this order again online, bearing in mind the reason for this rejection.

If you have any queries regarding this email please contact us at [email protected]

Thank you for using the Hargreaves Lansdown Online Stockbroking Service.
 

How's the HL fan club doing out there? 

Disclosure:  I own HL so indeed, thank you for using the Hargreaves Lansdown Online Stockbroking Service

[Loki]

Just now, Harley said:

How's the HL fan club doing out there? 

I had a word with them

[Starsend]

56 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

If the fundamentals of poly haven't changed then all of this is just noise.

 

They're still making the same product with the same demand.

Unless it's delisted from London and you just lose everything - or Moscow pulls them.

No idea what the likelyhood of that is but it's got to be a risk given what's going on.

I had a couple of grand in Polymetal, now considerably less. Decided to just leave it and see what happens but wouldn't be surprised to lose the lot.

It's a tough one, you could quadruple your money in under a year or lose 100%. It's trying to work out the chances. If it's 50/50 then a punt is the way to go.

[steppensheep]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Yea why not, although trying to get a quote is harder work

That's mesmerizing. I keep thinking, surely it's not going to happen again!

[Alifelessbinary]

I’ve just managed to pick up £100 worth on Freetrade, as I feel like I should share in this collective pain.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

If the fundamentals of poly haven't changed then all of this is just noise.

 

They're still making the same product with the same demand.

There could be logistical problems like other Russian firms have said, the railways aren't running normally. I suppose it depends how long the war lasts. I hope they don't put the gold dust in little sacks on donkeys, like they did in The Treasure of the Sierra Madre.

[Pip321]

30 minutes ago, planit said:

We are pawns in the game being played. The western leaders have initiated a media and propaganda war against Russia to try to put as much pressure on Putin as possible.*

Using the financial system (including shares) they have tried to collapse the Russian banks causing bank runs. 

The plan is to make the Russians feel their lives as they knew them are over, Ruble collapses, no flights etc etc. All this to isolate Putin and increase the chances of him making a deal today in the talks.

If this doesn't work (I think Putin was expecting this) and it's not over quickly, we have a problem as these sanctions will very quickly spill over to the energy situation. This then becomes a big own-goal for the West so Putin will be trying to draw this out and wait.

I have no idea what will happen but the amount of shit flying around on Twatter, Media and BB's is insane. 

I am calling peak FUD

 

* 50 years ago Putin would have more control of the information the population had access to. Now with social media etc the spread is almost instant and uncontrollable.

Interesting to see how this plays out but so far mission accomplished. ie The Fed should be able to hold interest rates (phew, what with all that debt), the dollar is up and no one is talking about parties at Downing Street.

Still feels to me that the West poked a 'rabid mad bear' (I won't defend Putin) for lots of reasons because financially they couldn't afford not to. 

West gathering together better than I thought.....Putin will be under pressure which could be even more dangerous. 

[reformed nice guy]

36 minutes ago, planit said:

We are pawns in the game being played. The western leaders have initiated a media and propaganda war against Russia to try to put as much pressure on Putin as possible.*

Using the financial system (including shares) they have tried to collapse the Russian banks causing bank runs. 

The plan is to make the Russians feel their lives as they knew them are over, Ruble collapses, no flights etc etc. All this to isolate Putin and increase the chances of him making a deal today in the talks.

If this doesn't work (I think Putin was expecting this) and it's not over quickly, we have a problem as these sanctions will very quickly spill over to the energy situation. This then becomes a big own-goal for the West so Putin will be trying to draw this out and wait.

I have no idea what will happen but the amount of shit flying around on Twatter, Media and BB's is insane. 

I am calling peak FUD

 

* 50 years ago Putin would have more control of the information the population had access to. Now with social media etc the spread is almost instant and uncontrollable.

We may be in an existential crisis for the West. We are weaponising the financial system but if it does not work then what next? I imagine that India, China, Brazil etc will be looking on with grave concern and Chinas "belt & road", which is effectively a Bretton Wood system alternative, becomes a lot more attractive.

If China is able to become the sole buyer of Russian oil and gas then they have overcome their energy problem. I imagine Russian diplomats in India will be working hard to keep them as a buyer so there is a modicum of competition.

I will be topping up my diesel, buying another tank of gas and chitting some more potatoes!

 

[JMD]

14 minutes ago, steppensheep said:

That's mesmerizing. I keep thinking, surely it's not going to happen again!

Yep, next time (this time) it will be different!?

[Democorruptcy]

Yandex's price gone back 10 years!

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/y/yandex-nv-usd0.01-a/company-information

 

 

[Sidd]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/1566422/Russia-Pakistan-gas-pipeline-route-Putin-evg/amp

What's your take on this @Cattle Prod?

[DurhamBorn]

I bought some more Blackrock Latin America today.On likely currency flows i think Latin America should start to see relative strength ,but also their exports increase.I nearly bought Tenaris SA,iv a few ,but they went up from first two ladders and was thinking of adding even though up 20%,but didnt.They could be big winners from new LNG plants in Europe etc. (they make gas pipes). 

 

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Ive probably missed something, but a lot of you all seem to be holding russian gas oil etc companies. Was there a reason for this? Purely the dividend yield? Was this a recommendation of the thread earlier or are you just scalping the swings?

My personal macro saw China as too risky so I stayed well away. At same time I thought Russia might 'play coy, and would skillfully straddle' both China and the West (nb I'm not familiar with investor jargon, can you tell?!). Anyway I'm a long term buy and hold investor so I bought some Russian energy and miner stocks... However, looks like I got it wrong, and instead Russia and China may increasingly become locked into an exclusively 'cosy trade block embrace'(!?) for the foreseeable. 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If the war is over soon it could go all 🚀🌛. More defence spending so more money printing.

 

I hope everyone bought these in December....

 

Market Summary > BAE Systems plc

718.83 GBX+164.23 (29.61%)year to date

28 Feb, 13:10 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: BA

 

 

[WICAO]

Wow, a lot of buying, selling and chatter on this thread recently.

Full disclosure: I've bought and sold precisely £0 worth of anything.  Overall wealth down around 3.9% since the start of the year when measured in £'s.  Sleeping soundly except for knowing that people on both sides of the fence are needlessly dying.  A terrible set of circumstances.

[Harley]

Poly pah!  Topped up the other one!  Massive div coming, daily wants up and there's a gap to fill.  This time next month we'll be rich says Del me advisor.  Best do more than just your own research for this one!  Talking of gaps to fill, here's one of our sweeties showing how it's done....

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Poly pah!  Topped up the other one!  Massive div coming, daily wants up and there's a gap to fill.  This time next month we'll be rich says Del me advisor.  Best do more than just your own research for this one!  Talking of gaps to fill, here's one of our sweeties showing how it's done....

That middle one looks like the trajectory of a Russian tank shell.