Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[WICAO]

1 minute ago, Pinkpanther said:

...

The first rule I learnt was to only invest what you can afford to lose - (not great advice if you pension is in the stock market)

...

If I lost everything I have invested I'd have a very big problem...

Are you sure you mean investing and not gambling?

[Pinkpanther]

1 minute ago, WICAO said:

If I lost everything I have invested I'd have a very big problem...

Are you sure you mean investing and not gambling?

Is putting money in the stock market not a form of rationalised gambling?

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, WICAO said:

If I lost everything I have invested I'd have a very big problem...

Are you sure you mean investing and not gambling?

So would a cyber event mean you were a gambler after all? 

[WICAO]

2 minutes ago, Pinkpanther said:

Is putting money in the stock market not a form of rationalised gambling?

Maybe, but how else am I going to feed myself when I'm 90?

[DurhamBorn]

I tend to think the words of Morrissey that sage of Walley Range are apt for looking at stocks.

"Do not go to them,let them come to you,just like i do,just like ....i..... do"

The best investment at the moment is a barbell.

I dont ever really care if what i have will last,how long etc etc.I learned the day i was 15 and Karen broke my heart on the old railway bridge that life tends to come and go,and given i grew up in the poorest town in England in a depression and enjoyed it i doubt id care.

[WICAO]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

So would a cyber event mean you were a gambler after all? 

A cyber event that affected my multiple wrapper providers who then didn't have appropriate back-ups and then didn't recognise my regular screenshot records.  Yes that would cause me a big problem.

If that was to occur though I think I'd have even bigger problems to deal with as I would expect the world outside my door would be pretty ugly. 

[Starsend]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I tend to think the words of Morrissey that sage of Walley Range are apt for looking at stocks.

"Do not go to them,let them come to you,just like i do,just like ....i..... do"

The best investment at the moment is a barbell.

I dont ever really care if what i have will last,how long etc etc.I learned the day i was 15 and Karen broke my heart on the old railway bridge that life tends to come and go,and given i grew up in the poorest town in England in a depression and enjoyed it i doubt id care.

This Karen... Fit was she?

11 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Maybe, but how else am I going to feed myself when I'm 90?

Apparently if you get yourself down to Aldi and pretend you've got no money then people buy you cheese.

[WICAO]

3 minutes ago, Starsend said:

...

Apparently if you get yourself down to Aldi and pretend you've got no money then people buy you cheese.

Don't really watch the MSM and now in Australia.  Have I missed something?

[DoINeedOne]

17 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Maybe all of us with some shiny could sit around (not sure what we'd sit around as a fire might attract attention) and look at our precious.  

On a more serious note what % of your wealth do you aim to hold in PM's?  I've decided on 5% as it doesn't have a yield and I want as many £'s as possible to earn their keep.

See thats where i will admit to being overweight in silver and gold 25+%, not including miners

So happy to sell down the gold etc to fund other things

[WICAO]

3 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

See thats where i will admit to being overweight in silver and gold 25+%, not including miners

So happy to sell down the gold etc to fund other things

We're all different so not judging anyone.  We all have to do what we think is right after plenty of DYOR.  I'm here to share and learn.  Nothing more and nothing less.

From memory the Permanent Portfolio calls for 25% in PM's (might actually be 25% in gold).

[JMD]

55 minutes ago, Harley said:

I still own some but did pull back.  They didn't have legs.  But I'm overdue a look but there are so many to look at atm.  I've been more interested in Japan but again have some work to do.  With HK, maybe time to look at the oil refiners!

Thanks. Have you considered offshore oil explorers? I understand this specialist sector might be next big thing when drilling licenses around US coast, etc are allowed again.                                                                                                I've been looking, but so far not finding many, US asset managers who pay a half-way decent divi. If/whenI find some I will post.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Rebuilding? Has Putin started bombing us already?

I meant we have relaxed our visa rules for Ukranians coming here.

I meant out there. Friends dads company did incredibly well during gulf war 1. Negotiated their end of the rebuilding contracts before the bombs had stopped dropping. All the 'friendly' nations got first dibs.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Isn't it better to crystalise your gains then get even more of someone elses tax back ?

Thats my plan from April. I stop contributing to my s+s isas then slowly feed it into my sipp over the next 3-5 years up to my earning limit, then put into drawdown and trickle in.
Plan to never pay tax again after April. Well thats the plan anyway.

[Animal Spirits]

17 hours ago, JMD said:

Interesting listen but pity Mike Green didn't expand more on his thesis about emerging markets not doing well from here. Does anyone more about Green's thinking here? Reminded me a little of Victor Shvets, though his view is extreme whereby em's ultimately require Marshall plan style bailout by the West (think it interesting, and imo adds to credibility, that a Asia banker would say such negative things about his own home market).

Likely relative dollar strength with continued bias for capital inflows into US asset markets.

[Green Devil]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

This'll confuse a lot of poly investors 

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/share-investing/article-10552685/Anglo-Russian-miner-Polymetal-release-year-figures.html

 

"All eyes will be on Polymetal International when the Anglo-Russian miner releases its full-year figures on Wednesday. "

 

They are nailed on to post HUGE profits, what will people do then ( if the shares have not become worthless ) ?

They are not worthless now. They wouldnt sell me any for 290 today. More loss them, my bid will be 250 tommorrow lol. 

[Green Devil]

52 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

See thats where i will admit to being overweight in silver and gold 25+%, not including miners

So happy to sell down the gold etc to fund other things

Ill admit to 5% in gold and gold miners. Worse investment i ever made 🤣

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

They are not worthless now. They wouldnt sell me any for 290 today. More loss them, my bid will be 250 tommorrow lol. 

I'll sell you mine for 500 if you like 😁

 

Wednesday will be interesting, worth holding till then. If by some miracle they bounce I'll sell out and thank my lucky stars I've clawed back some losses. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Any thoughts @Cattle Prod?

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, WICAO said:

Don't really watch the MSM and now in Australia.  Have I missed something?

Ah sorry, it's a joke that goes someway back on this thread when @DurhamBornvery generously bought some cheese for an old lady who'd run out of money at Aldi.

[23rdian]

In retrospect, with a war from Russia on the  cards, holding a miner that is very heavily exposed to Russia Vs ANY other gold miner probally wasn't the best bet. I will add it to the list...

[Starsend]

15 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Ill admit to 5% in gold and gold miners. Worse investment i ever made 🤣

I'm about 30% gold and silver, much of it physical bought 15 years or so ago. I paid £7 I think for a silver Britannia back then. Also a decent chunk in the PM miners but I've concentrated my position there more around the dividend paying majors like Newmont, the royalty companies and GDXJ. Should capture a good chunk of the upside without all the risk of the juniors. 

I've thought about rebalancing and then decided nah, given the state of the monetary system (even before Putin went nuts) and the lack of other cheap assets, I'll prob end up increasing it further.

I do suspect at some point in the next five years everybody will wish they'd backed the truck up.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

100 Loo Rolls?

Shocker, the poly dividend is only 20% now, was 25% at quarter past 4.

 

If I'd bought 20k worth rather than £200 id be feeling like Billy big baws

 

[geordie_lurch]

Shell says it will end all joint ventures with Russian gas company Gazprom

The joint ventures are worth around $3bn. 

Shell also said it would end its involvement in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which was set to run between Russia and Germany - but that Germany last week said it would shelve plans for. 

"Our decision to exit is one we take with conviction," said Shell's chief executive, Ben van Beurdenvan Beurden. 

"We cannot – and we will not – stand by. Our immediate focus is the safety of our people in Ukraine and supporting our people in Russia. In discussion with governments around the world, we will also work through the detailed business implications, including the importance of secure energy supplies to Europe and other markets, in compliance with relevant sanctions."

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-putin-nuclear-deterrent-invasion-belarus-live-updates-12541713?postid=3443951#liveblog-body

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I'm about 30% gold and silver, much of it physical bought 15 years or so ago. I paid £7 I think for a silver Britannia back then. Also a decent chunk in the PM miners but I've concentrated my position there more around the dividend paying majors like Newmont, the royalty companies and GDXJ. Should capture a good chunk of the upside without all the risk of the juniors. 

I've thought about rebalancing and then decided nah, given the state of the monetary system (even before Putin went nuts) and the lack of other cheap assets, I'll prob end up increasing it further.

I do suspect at some point in the next five years everybody will wish they'd backed the truck up.

History says you're right. 

Keep loading the truck 

[Jesus Wept]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Shocker, the poly dividend is only 20% now, was 25% at quarter past 4.

 

If I'd bought 20k worth rather than £200 id be feeling like Billy big baws

 

Let me get this right…..

POLY will ‘gap up’ from 350p to 476p when it opens tomorrow morning. 

A massive 36% ….. really? 
 

Someone knows something….