Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Cawn said:

Polymetal have just released an RNS.

Blackrock have increased their stake from 5% to 10% at double yesterday's SP close. Also a positive RNS about exploration.

Blackrock did buy a chunk of Eurasia Mining plc at 40p so maybe not a buy signal.

Typical.  Whilst the scared little people get fleeced, the big guys in the know load up on their panic sold shares at cheap prices.  If that's not a signal everything is going to be alright in the end I don't know what is.

[Phil]

Just now, Majorpain said:

Typical.  Whilst the scared little people get fleeced, the big guys in the know load up at cheap prices.  If that's not a signal everything is going to be alright in the end I don't know what is.

I have accepted that I may lose it all, but this gives me hope. I'll hold. If it go hot, then there is no need to worry imo. 

[AWW]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They arent getting cashflow though,BP has declined the dividend,so wont be getting it.

I hadn't seen that news. Suppose a cheap bit of good press, compared to how much they'll gain in tax savings by writing the asset value down, assuming they do.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

47 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

 

 

A part of the reason for BP and Shell getting rid of Russian assets. They'd have had a larger share price decline keeping hold of them in the short term as woke investment groups sell shares they hold on behalf of others as a loss. Easy to take a loss with other people's money.

Agree with others that it is nuts for the Government to encourage business to give away assets.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Cawn said:

Polymetal have just released an RNS.

Blackrock have increased their stake from 5% to 10% at double yesterday's SP close. Also a positive RNS about exploration.

Blackrock did buy a chunk of Eurasia Mining plc at 40p so maybe not a buy signal.

 The wider point for me is a lot of the selling of Russian stocks (not Poly specific) by the West looks to be a great opportunity for oligarchs to buy businesses and income.

It’s easy to confuse shares as just ‘investments’ but on the ground they are businesses and can be a real tangible asset that generates wealth and income on the back of the labour and initiative of others. Owning a profitable business is top of the financial pyramid.

The currencies will wobble, the price of markets will impact share price, oil price, food price and PMs etc. 

This invasion will financial hurt the Russian population but the west shouldn’t underestimate the ability for the very wealthy to stay very wealthy….even if that wealth isn’t held on a balance sheet.

I guess that was illustrated with a global epidemic, with NHS struggling, welfare being handed out to help everyone in ‘desperate times’….the very wealthy still manage to find a way to increase their wealth.

That doesn’t mean I would jump of Russian investments….the opportunity to gain won’t necessarily be shared with the average Joe.

In human terms the invasion is horrific.  In financial terms the sanctions are an interesting test of both East and West. 

[BurntBread]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I know most on this thread now prefer to put everything on red or black,but for those who are trying to build a diverse portfolio im going to start buying this Investment Trust.

JP Morgan Japan Small Cap Growth and Income Trust (JSGI) .

I really like Japan this cycle,and i havent really got around to investing in it.Iv decided this is a good place to start as it offers the quarterly divis.They pay 4% of assets pa and its trading at a 9% discount so roughly a 4.4% yield here.

Japan has had to become very very efficient due to a long deflation and China,but some inflation should help them.The downside is they have few natural resources so will be hit with commod/energy inflation,but should manage it better than most.

These investment trusts are becoming a bigger part of my portfolio,but still small.I intend to grow them.Im prepared to give up some returns to have more diverse regions in holdings.Il be looking for exposure to bigger Jap companies as well.

Thank you DB: your thoughts (not advice!) are  hugely useful for suggesting things I would not have come across in my own wanderings.

I did try to look for some of the big Japanese companies on HL early last year, but there were very few listed. If that hasn't changed, what is the best way for us platform users to make a noise to let them know there is demand?

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Thanks for the recommendation, my work AVC scheme is being butchered in the name of social responsibility so I've finally plucked up the courage to transfer it out into a SIPP with my S&S ISA provider ii. Starting off with this one along with Henderson Far East, Murray Intl and Blackrock Latin America, along with a few chunks of hefty dividend shares. 

I have been investing 100% of my AVC into the cash fund for similar reasons, once they change the Pension scheme again next year I will be transferring it into my SIPP.

At least I only pay 68p in the Pound through salary sacrifice.

[kibuc]

23 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Typical.  Whilst the scared little people get fleeced, the big guys in the know load up on their panic sold shares at cheap prices.  If that's not a signal everything is going to be alright in the end I don't know what is.

Keep in mind, the purchase was made before or on the 25th when Poly was still flying relatively high in low-mid 700s. They are 50% down on their investment already.
https://www.polymetalinternational.com/upload/iblock/809/2022_03_01_TR-1_(Blackrock)_eng.pdf

[HousePriceMania]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I know most on this thread now prefer to put everything on red or black,but for those who are trying to build a diverse portfolio im going to start buying this Investment Trust.

JP Morgan Japan Small Cap Growth and Income Trust (JSGI) .

I really like Japan this cycle,and i havent really got around to investing in it.Iv decided this is a good place to start as it offers the quarterly divis.They pay 4% of assets pa and its trading at a 9% discount so roughly a 4.4% yield here.

Japan has had to become very very efficient due to a long deflation and China,but some inflation should help them.The downside is they have few natural resources so will be hit with commod/energy inflation,but should manage it better than most.

These investment trusts are becoming a bigger part of my portfolio,but still small.I intend to grow them.Im prepared to give up some returns to have more diverse regions in holdings.Il be looking for exposure to bigger Jap companies as well.

Don't listen tot he sane man telling you to be sensible...go red...

 

 

DOSBODS meet up in Vegas anyone ?

[Hardhat]

Hardhat's "Diamond Balls" Porfolio

50% POLY

50% The Hut Group

 

For more investment tips, sign up for my newsletter

[CannonFodder]

1 minute ago, Hardhat said:

Hardhat's "Diamond Balls" Porfolio

50% POLY

50% The Hut Group

 

For more investment tips, sign up for my newsletter

You just need to add 'watch and learn' at the end of the post

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

Luke Gromen - "US can't sanction Russian energy without risking systemic collapse"

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:31 – Russia’s Options
7:55 – Forced Solutions
10:14 – China & Europe
16:06 – Russia’s Gold
20:37 – Bond Market Risks
24:57 – LBMA & Comex Risk
27:29 – Scenarios
35:38 – Weaponizing Bitcoin
38:26 – Fed & EuroDollar
43:30 – Taper/Tighten?
47:20 – Gold in 2019
49:58 – Trudeau & Miners
53:53 – Crypto & Fiat Risk
58:05 – Hedging Options
1:01:55- Wrap Up

Been listening this morning.

Brutal.

 

[leonardratso]

lloyds tell me they arent dealing xestra.gaz anymore, trying to sell them they say call customer support, im not calling them, so fuck it.

That jap fund has 10% in scotia canada bank.

 

https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheet-data/factsheet/GB0003165817-jpmorgan-japan-small-cap-gi-plc/portfolio

[HousePriceMania]

 Polymetal International PLC

268.90 GBX−82.30 (23.43%)today

1 Mar, 09:47 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: POLY

 

 

If BlackCock knows something we dont then I wish they'd hurry up and tell us all.

[belfastchild]

32 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

DOSBODS meet up in Vegas anyone ?

Ive been to Vegas three times and never gambled once.
Probably comes from having a summer and student job working in a bookies. Work the other side of the counter and its obvious who the winners are.

I made comments earlier in the thread about the spread on poly and it reminded me of the time you couldnt buy gold/silver anywhere when the price dropped through the floor.

The house always wins. Im not surprised DB is putting money into the fund managers (that is not investment advice from me btw).

[Sugarlips]

This is a long bow in ordinary times but given gofundme donors are domestic terrorists is it not possible that people buying Soviet linked shares could be singled out in the same way?

[Noallegiance]

https://uk.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/chinas-russian-coal-purchases-stall-as-buyers-struggle-to-secure-financing-2595011

[Majorpain]

13 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 Polymetal International PLC

268.90 GBX−82.30 (23.43%)today

1 Mar, 09:47 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: POLY

 

 

If BlackCock knows something we dont then I wish they'd hurry up and tell us all.

Ran their updated stats through my spreadsheet and the ratio is still not in complete banana republic territory, merely African.  I think that its going to start with a 1 at end of week, at least anyone suffering can take solace that Blackrock are nursing a paper loss of hundreds of millions.  

7 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

This is a long bow in ordinary times but given gofundme donors are domestic terrorists is it not possible that people buying Soviet linked shares could be singled out in the same way?

Soviet??!!  

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Ive been to Vegas three times and never gambled once.
Probably comes from having a summer and student job working in a bookies. Work the other side of the counter and its obvious who the winners are.

I made comments earlier in the thread about the spread on poly and it reminded me of the time you couldnt buy gold/silver anywhere when the price dropped through the floor.

The house always wins. Im not surprised DB is putting money into the fund managers (that is not investment advice from me btw).

I've been once and wouldn't go back, lost a dollar on a slot machine. 

I thought it was a particularly sad place, women stood in their wedding dresses gambling at 5 am as we left to go to the Grand Canyon, shops offering to cash pay cheques, leaflets for "escorts" everywhere.  I'd rather go to Amsterdam and chuck my money in the bin as I arrive. 

[Sugarlips]

7 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Ran their updated stats through my spreadsheet and the ratio is still not in complete banana republic territory, merely African.  I think that its going to start with a 1 at end of week, at least anyone suffering can take solace that Blackrock are nursing a paper loss of hundreds of millions.  

Soviet??!!  

Apologies I’m a little old fashioned 

[Noallegiance]

This thread provides joviality not to be found elsewhere.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Which is a good point, the dividend must be in Dollars, so by refusing the dividend BP is making Rosneft/Russian Govt's life a lot easier by not draining some of its much more limited Dollar reserves!

So what are you thinking, that BP whilst being seen to do the right thing are 'playing the long game' regarding Russia, and thinking that 'favours' will be repaid in the future?...i

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

This thread provides joviality not to be found elsewhere.

Same as the local bookies.

[Democorruptcy]

48 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

That jap fund has 10% in scotia canada bank.

https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheet-data/factsheet/GB0003165817-jpmorgan-japan-small-cap-gi-plc/portfolio

That's dated 31st Dec and not in the HL list but there's no date there

[HousePriceMania]

Anyone still laddering into Poly ?