Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

In good news Covid is over. Thanks Vlad

Isn't it amazing? It's as if a switch was flicked and it's left everyone's mind instantly.

[Plan-b]

5 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'd expect this week to be much more ruthless than the first one, with Putin needing something to show for his invasion before they go back to the negotiating table. So, quite possible, even more war atrocities and even harsher reactions from the West.

That being said, a lot of it might probably be already priced in or being in the process of getting priced in, contributing to the price action of the last 2 days. After all, it doesn't require big brainz to figure out that pulling out is not an option for Putin at the moment.

I might get my 3rd Poly ladder and 1st Gazprom ladder today, if HL allows me today. Huge risks, yes, but those are real companies with real assets at massive discount. I take that over Facebooks and Netflixes of this world any day.

HL wont allow any GAZ dealing at the moment, does anyone have platform access to buy Gaz Or Poly?

[ThoughtCriminal]

https://www.reuters.com/business/after-sanctions-barrage-russias-emerging-market-allies-explore-workarounds-2022-02-28/

 

This is a must read article in my humble opinion.

 

Sets out how the BRIC countries are now accelerating the de-dollarisation they were already developing.

 

The Chinese don't give a shit about swift, they're just going to step up yuan/ruble deals.

 

America may have fucked themselves here. 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Rothschild style. In fact was that the Crimean war where his messenger got back before official news?

that's too far on a horse, it was the Battle of Waterloo, sent to rider to the London Stock Exchange who falsely claimed that Napoleon had won, the stock market shat the bed, the joos and the bankers bought everything and they all lived happily every after!  It was a while before Thatcher then 'doubled down' on all the problems 

[geordie_lurch]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/after-sanctions-barrage-russias-emerging-market-allies-explore-workarounds-2022-02-28/

This is a must read article in my humble opinion.

Sets out how the BRIC countries are now accelerating the de-dollarisation they were already developing.

The Chinese don't give a shit about swift, they're just going to step up yuan/ruble deals.

America may have fucked themselves here. 

Yep and BTC is roaring back as I predicted when others on here were writing it off. I always said it's true test will be when a major currency starts to fail however I'm just not sure if it's the US $ or Ruble that's failing quicker

[Metalheadz]

5 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

HL wont allow any GAZ dealing at the moment, does anyone have platform access to buy Gaz Or Poly?

You can buy Poly on eToro - it's a bit noddy but it's a CFD so you will get filled at the current price.

Sadly they have disabled all leverage.

Gazprom and Lukoil are blocked from buying or selling which I have never seen before and is probably not a great sign if you are long.

[DoINeedOne]

One thing that has shocked me really is companies targeting Russian citizens cancelling them shall we say

I was just told Namecheap a fucking domain register which i use has given all Russian accounts 6 days to transfer their domains else where or they will be suspended

Even on twitter people retweeting shit that not true, blocking people who may post something that's actually a fact about Ukraine or Russia

so much tribalism 

One thing i like about this thread and forum is we all come from different walks of life, we're all on different journeys and may have different thoughts i personally like to hear them then come to my own conclusion

But what i seeing from companies, people on social media is scary and it was the same with Brexit, Covid and others but this is another level

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, DoINeedOne said:

One thing that has shocked me really is companies targeting Russian citizens cancelling them shall we say

I was just told Namecheap a fucking domain register which i use has given all Russian accounts 6 days to transfer their domains else where or they will be suspended

Even on twitter people retweeting shit that not true, blocking people who may post something that's actually a fact about Ukraine or Russia

so much tribalism 

One thing i like about this thread and forum is we all come from different walks of life, we're all on different journeys and may have different thoughts i personally like to hear them then come to my own conclusion

But what i seeing from companies, people on social media is scary and it was the same with Brexit, Covid and others 

 

 

 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I'm not buying anything. Markets grinding down generally. I don't think they'll stop until there is news about the war moving to a close.

You can argue for South America and Japan. Also resource stocks based outside the West and Russia.

I'm keeping what I've got. The BK is possible now. US markets defied reason yesterday, IMO. If it collapses I'll buy. The money I have on the sidelines is for buying low. Prices marked down for risk. I don't know which risks will play out.

The Dow is doing my head in a bit.

The US markets seem to defy all reason most recently and indeed historically over the past few years.

It will be interesting if the Dow plummeted what the reaction would be by the average American….

As I said before I am in a mix of horror over what is physically happening and fascinated by how this pan out financially for West v East.

The US were down the toilet but it is possible this is an act of genius by the West….or we will be speaking Russian (or Chinese) by the end of the year.

The veterans are right that this has become a traders forum but this volatility attracts that sentiment.

Picking the long term investments in this market relies on the basics taught throughout this thread and also ensuring the geography in the long term is factored in….and that is dependant upon an outcome we don’t know.

So playing it safe is probably the wisest move….although I am tempted by a little flutter for entertainment value.😉🤦🏻‍♂️

Prediction this afternoon. US told how great their economy is, how the Russians are crumbling and the Dow up a few hundred points making companies worth 1000 x earnings 🤦🏻‍♂️

[jamtomorrow]

9 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep and BTC is roaring back as I predicted when others on here were writing it off. I always said it's true test will be when a major currency starts to fail however I'm just not sure if it's the US $ or Ruble that's failing quicker

The "it'll never happen / they won't let it happen" thesis is unravelling in front of our eyes.

Central bank reserves disavowed at the stroke of a pen - check.

ADRs suddenly looking more like derivatives, rather than perfect proxies for the underlying - check.

Jurisdictional and systemic risk are now fully in play.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

10 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

One thing that has shocked me really is companies targeting Russian citizens cancelling them shall we say

I was just told Namecheap a fucking domain register which i use has given all Russian accounts 6 days to transfer their domains else where or they will be suspended

Even on twitter people retweeting shit that not true, blocking people who may post something that's actually a fact about Ukraine or Russia

so much tribalism 

One thing i like about this thread and forum is we all come from different walks of life, we're all on different journeys and may have different thoughts i personally like to hear them then come to my own conclusion

But what i seeing from companies, people on social media is scary and it was the same with Brexit, Covid and others 

 

 

This is why I've gone a bit tinfoil. It is so obvious that the 'little people' are just pawns for the power brokers. They will sacrifice you or I without blinking. It appears nothing is off the table as far as they are concerned.

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

so much tribalism 

never understimate the governments ability to fuk up yer life! And the plebs ability to be stupid and totally bloody selfish...

Having a bit of barney with some so called mates at the moment, if I'm not careful I'll have very few mates again lol

Combined with 2 lots of twats in cars earlier got incredibly close to me on bike..

it's all going downhill terribly quickly, all planned of course, divide n conquer innit bro? 

 

[23rdian]

30 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'd expect this week to be much more ruthless than the first one, with Putin needing something to show for his invasion before they go back to the negotiating table. So, quite possible, even more war atrocities and even harsher reactions from the West.

That being said, a lot of it might probably be already priced in or being in the process of getting priced in, contributing to the price action of the last 2 days. After all, it doesn't require big brainz to figure out that pulling out is not an option for Putin at the moment.

I might get my 3rd Poly ladder and 1st Gazprom ladder today, if HL allows me today. Huge risks, yes, but those are real companies with real assets at massive discount. I take that over Facebooks and Netflixes of this world any day.

I think you'll struggle with the 'prom. Any platforms giving a quote?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

The Dow is doing my head in a bit.

The US markets seem to defy all reason most recently and indeed historically over the past few years.

It will be interesting if the Dow plummeted what the reaction would be by the average American….

As I said before I am in a mix of horror over what is physically happening and fascinated by how this pan out financially for West v East.

The US were down the toilet but it is possible this is an act of genius by the West….or we will be speaking Russian (or Chinese) by the end of the year.

The veterans are right that this has become a traders forum but this volatility attracts that sentiment.

Picking the long term investments in this market relies on the basics taught throughout this thread and also ensuring the geography in the long term is factored in….and that is dependant upon an outcome we don’t know.

So playing it safe is probably the wisest move….although I am tempted by a little flutter for entertainment value.😉🤦🏻‍♂️

Prediction this afternoon. US told how great their economy is, how the Russians are crumbling and the Dow up a few hundred points making companies worth 1000 x earnings 🤦🏻‍♂️

One day they will crash the Dow and S&P. Until then it is a bubble. The problem is inflation. Go all in and get wrecked if you time your exit wrong. Stay out and get wrecked by inflation. 

You will own nothing and you will be a violent revolutionary, perhaps.

I'm thinking reduce North American and European exposure. Pick up South America, Japan, global commods, telcos and ciggies.

Gonna think a bit more...

[belfastchild]

33 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'd expect this week to be much more ruthless than the first one, with Putin needing something to show for his invasion before they go back to the negotiating table.

Im doing a bit of energy research this morning (not that you would know from my posting!) but was reading some twitter comments from the usual suspects (loss of control of 5800 german wind turbines coinciding with the russian invasion etc).
Read one comment from a randomer which really stood out, something along the lines of cut the gas and see how putin likes it. All it takes is everyone in europe to only take one shower a week and eat cold food. For the life of me I dont know if thats a serious or sarcastic comment.

Various forecasts of a cold snap this week, I noticed frost and frozen water in my garden this morning (I was away for 2 weeks of Feb though so only know that was the first in a week). Even a throttling back on gas or unexpected maintenance next tuesday would royally screw a lot of people.

Ive had solar panels for 6 years now and last month was my 2nd worst for solar output. Read about the drought in ukraine last year which led to a big reduction in wheat sown and stuff needs to get in the ground in the next month for the summer.

A lot of this conflict doesnt pass my smell test but its certainly slightly more hot than cold war, with everyone tip toeing around the energy questions.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 minutes ago, nirvana said:

never understimate the governments ability to fuk up yer life! And the plebs ability to be stupid and totally bloody selfish...

Having a bit of barney with some so called mates at the moment, if I'm not careful I'll have very few mates again lol

Combined with 2 lots of twats in cars earlier got incredibly close to me on bike..

it's all going downhill terribly quickly, all planned of course, divide n conquer innit bro? 

 

Have a smoke and a wank. You need to chill bro. Perhaps post a JPow printing meme, you're good with those.

[leonardratso]

29 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

HL wont allow any GAZ dealing at the moment, does anyone have platform access to buy Gaz Or Poly?

yeah like we said earlier, GAZ is non tradable. Lloyds/halifax told me they cant get prices from XESTRA for it, more likely XESTRA can get a feed from russia (with love).

[reformed nice guy]

30 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

HL wont allow any GAZ dealing at the moment, does anyone have platform access to buy Gaz Or Poly?

Interactive Brokers.... I got a small purchase at 1.75

[Sugarlips]

@nirvana

[AWW]

8 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

cut the gas and see how putin likes it. All it takes is everyone in europe to only take one shower a week and eat cold food.

Why make personal sacrifices to help Ukranians repel a dictator, when you can simply put a flag on your Facebook profile and turn the heating up?

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Specifically small company?

No,i want more exposure across the board but not sure yet how to structure it.That trust is a nice opening.

[geordie_lurch]

11 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Interactive Brokers.... I got a small purchase at 1.75

I imagine Interactive Brokers and other trading houses are looking a lot like this at the moment trying to offload any Russian shares

 

[AWW]

4 minutes ago, Cawn said:

I very rarely mix with general population

Due to my relatively poor (in monetary terms) childhood and my relatively rewarding (again, monetary terms) line of work, I mix with a whole range of people of different backgrounds, income levels and attitudes. One of the things it has taught me is that most people harbour an extreme opinion or two that they're quite happy to share, of course the subject matter changes with the people. I think most people are quite capable of taking an extreme position on an issue while believing it's just what everyone else thinks. At work, it was Covid. People very supportive of lockdowns even though they are the policy of lunatics. At home, it's "bankers". Everyone who works in finance should be strung up.

The one thing that seems to cross all socioeconomic boundaries is cyclists. Everyone fucking hates us!

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happening with ABDN ?

 

Market Summary > Abrdn PLC

197.08 GBX-27.60 (-12.28%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 11:21 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: ABDN

Nothing,the sector is out of favour and the sector doesnt like the huge uncertainty.Results were fine,last quarter saw an uptick in AUM,iv got two more ladders set in them,be quite happy if they hit.

One thing i will say though,they are handing back around £250 mill to shareholders,but didnt really mention how,i quess buybacks.CEOs really get my goat when they dont do these at the best time.They should be using the money now if they are going to not leave it up in the air.

 

[Axeman123]

42 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'd expect this week to be much more ruthless than the first one, with Putin needing something to show for his invasion before they go back to the negotiating table...

Today we have "negotiations fail" and "war could last years" headlines, and likely are therefore nearing the low in sentiment. With a 40 mile long column of armour reportedly approaching Kiev I imagine we could see either a ceasefire on Russian terms or the government decanted to Lviv within a week. As you say a brutal week ahead for the ordinary Joe on the ground. I would expect a substantial bounce in Russian stocks once the "ceasefire agreed" headlines are published, and I wouldn't rule out partial reversal of sanctions as a response.

Still undecided on whether to get (5%) exposure, or sit this one out. The rational mind says we either have WW3 or resolution within a week, the current situation and rhetoric cannot continue much longer.