Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Nothing,the sector is out of favour and the sector doesnt like the huge uncertainty.Results were fine,last quarter saw an uptick in AUM,iv got two more ladders set in them,be quite happy if they hit.

One thing i will say though,they are handing back around £250 mill to shareholders,but didnt really mention how,i quess buybacks.CEOs really get my goat when they dont do these at the best time.They should be using the money now if they are going to not leave it up in the air.

 

I have bought 2 ladders of this now.  That will do me.  The dividend and share price look good, the business sound ( hopefully ).  Now in it for the long term and retirement dividends, have stopped worrying about share prices for now.

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

Today we have "negotiations fail" and "war could last years" headlines, and likely are therefore nearing the low in sentiment. With a 40 mile long column of armour reportedly approaching Kiev I imagine we could see either a ceasefire on Russian terms or the government decanted to Lviv within a week. As you say a brutal week ahead for the ordinary Joe on the ground. I would expect a substantial bounce in Russian stocks once the "ceasefire agreed" headlines are published, and I wouldn't rule out partial reversal of sanctions as a response.

Still undecided on whether to get (5%) exposure, or sit this one out. The rational mind says we either have WW3 or resolution within a week, the current situation and rhetoric cannot continue much longer.

I was surprised it started at all.  Will keep going till the next FED meeting then a ceasefire will be called 

[nirvana]

fukkin A that guy on his bike! See it's all part of 'divide and conquer' yet again......we don't think we own the fukkin road u cretins we just want a bit of space to keep fit n healthy FFS

I am feeling it though and some cunts cars are gonna get damaged in the very near future if they're not careful

Right I'm off to murder a pansy before I murder the markets 

[Castlevania]

36 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Isn't it amazing? It's as if a switch was flicked and it's left everyone's mind instantly.

It is. I just can’t get my head around how Covid has so quickly disappeared. 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think some on here are being a bit hard on themselves for "bad" buys with poly etc. In this inflationary environment doing nothing and sitting in cash isn't really an option, so you have to do something and that means that sometimes you're going to get things wrong. Maybe very wrong.

Take solace in knowing that 95% of the country are utter fucking imbeciles with Ukraine flags on their profiles because the media told them to. A week ago they couldn't have found Kiev on a map, and they certainly didn't give a flying fucking about Ukrainians slaughtering women and children with Grad rockets in the Donbas for the past 7 years.

Ok I know a war is rampaging in Ukraine but Is it only me annoyed by how capital cities effectively change name? Kiev (Russian pronunciation), has now suddenly become Keeeeeeev (Ukrainian pronunciation)....          It's politically driven of course, but I wonder if this means we all could go back to saying Peking? (Btw much of the world didn't adopt this change, in particular Europe mostly didn't. But the English speaking nations did, however change of pronunciations were not reciprocated by China, funny that!)

[BurntBread]

29 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

This is why I've gone a bit tinfoil. It is so obvious that the 'little people' are just pawns for the power brokers. They will sacrifice you or I without blinking. It appears nothing is off the table as far as they are concerned.

I was saying to someone at work that it felt like a return to the 19th century, with a great game between many powers, and treaties being honoured or dishonoured. It's no longer two great blocs leaning against each other, with MAD keeping the peace.

If @Cattle Prod and that Luke Groman chap are right, we may even get back onto the gold standard, with Russia forcing the issue. That would be a real eye-opener for the historians!

What the nineteenth century didn't have (or not to nearly the same degree) was the trans-national network of elites waging a second war against ordinary people, with the battle-lines running orthogonal to national borders, and the combatants remaining cryptic.

If we can raise the poverty-line a fair old way compared to back then, I quite like the idea of the nineteenth century.

 

[reformed nice guy]

18 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I imagine Interactive Brokers and other trading houses are looking a lot like this at the moment trying to offload any Russian shares

 

I realise that there is a good chance that Im going to be another bag holder for the big boys but my last gazprom purchase during the covid panic of 2020 was 4.58, I had set a $3.50 ladder and just went for it but with a much smaller amount (10% of my normal ladder amount)

[Loki]

Oil back over $100 ($101.03)

[reformed nice guy]

That VIX stock seems to be doing really good - does it have a good dividend?

[HousePriceMania]

We're helping the Ukraine....

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

For those who have been looking to get a (long-term, inflation-protecting, sensible, definitely not gambling) entry into Heidelbergcement, its at the lowest its been for a year.

[Loki]

HARL up 10% today...get it while it's cheap...

 

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

HARL up 10% today...get it while it's cheap...

 

Is that the stock formerly known as Infrastrata?

[Don Coglione]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

HARL up 10% today...get it while it's cheap...

 

More chance of getting my money back on Gazprom and Polymetal!

[Loki]

Just now, Castlevania said:

Is that the stock formerly known as Infrastrata?

Maybe 

[23rdian]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

HARL up 10% today...get it while it's cheap...

 

Can I just say I enjoy these type of posts. I might not buy but they were simply not on my radar regardless. I enjoy people posting ideas. Cheers to you all.

EDIT: also the HeidelbergCement but I don't know how to do multiquotes.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Pardon my ignorance, but who typically acts as the intermediary on an ADR? If I buy a Gazprom ADR on the LSE, who is my counterparty for matching that purchase on the MCX and are *they* now at risk? Seems whoever that is now has a whole pile of liabilities on the LSE in the form of ADRs, while the "real" instruments on the MSE are now inaccessible to the intermediary (since CBR barred foreign entities). 

Or is an ADR now effectively a bet that the situation will unwind somehow?

You mean you didn't do your DD and check?

Actually it's very hard to find out (funny that)!  I tried way back and found some info which I posted here back in the day (but no-one was interested!).  It's held in a trust type setup.  I can't even remember the names but it's with the clearing company.  I believe the trust owns the security and you have an interest.  So there will probably be a trust type document somewhere detailing the precise construct.

[HousePriceMania]

 

 

@Yellow_Reduced_Stickerhas been outed 

Does it mention he's living in regret because he bought the Scottish Share ? 

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, Loki said:

HARL up 10% today...get it while it's cheap...

 

Can I just ask, on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being anonymous and 10 being it retains it's real name. How confident are you about what it will be known as, on here in 6 months?

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Can I just say I enjoy these type of posts. I might not buy but they were simply not on my radar regardless. I enjoy people posting ideas. Cheers to you all.

EDIT: also the HeidelbergCement but I don't know how to do multiquotes.

Yeah it's a bit of an inside joke that share! It seems like a great infrastructure/industrial type share (Windmills at sea, oil rigs/vessels etc) but, well, I'm down 80% but luckily only put a small amount in, not even worth selling so just hold to see what happens

[Harley]

7 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

Luke Gromen - "US can't sanction Russian energy without risking systemic collapse"

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:31 – Russia’s Options
7:55 – Forced Solutions
10:14 – China & Europe
16:06 – Russia’s Gold
20:37 – Bond Market Risks
24:57 – LBMA & Comex Risk
27:29 – Scenarios
35:38 – Weaponizing Bitcoin
38:26 – Fed & EuroDollar
43:30 – Taper/Tighten?
47:20 – Gold in 2019
49:58 – Trudeau & Miners
53:53 – Crypto & Fiat Risk
58:05 – Hedging Options
1:01:55- Wrap Up

That's what I love about this "game".  You get to hear from some people who can really think things through.  Proper clever people.  One of the most important and beneficial podcasts I have heard for a long time.  Congrats to both of them.

[HousePriceMania]

25 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

For those who have been looking to get a (long-term, inflation-protecting, sensible, definitely not gambling) entry into Heidelbergcement, its at the lowest its been for a year.

I'm waiting for my POLY gamble to pay off before I go back to the bookies.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Can I just ask, on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being anonymous and 10 being it retains it's real name. How confident are you about what it will be known as, on here in 6 months?

I already call it the Titanic share  

 

"HARL bagholder waiting to at least breakeven"

[Red Debt Redemption]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

I already call it the Titanic share  

 

"HARL bagholder waiting to at least breakeven"

ARB 

[Boon]

Is this one of you? If so sorry but a good read.

https://deepvalueinvestments.wordpress.com/2022/03/01/russia-invasion-of-ukraine-worst-investing-day-ever-c25-30-ytd/

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

I already call it the Titanic share  

 

"HARL bagholder waiting to at least breakeven"

Blurb has promise? You might not have invested enough?

Quote

Harland & Wolff Group Holdings plc, formerly InfraStrata plc, is a United Kingdom-based offshore and maritime engineering company. The Company operates engineering facilities with deep water access, deep water quayside berths and fabrications halls. Its facilities include Belfast, Methil, Arnish and Appledore. It offers various services, which includes technical services, fabrication and construction, repair and maintenance, in service support, conversion and decommissioning services. The Company's technical services team comprises of naval architecture, systems design and engineering, electrical design and engineering, steel structural design and engineering, and general arrangement and outfit design. It supports the entire conversion process from initial feasibility studies and detail design, through to fabrication and any extended lifetime support. The Company operates across defense, cruise and ferry, oil and gas, commercial shipping and renewables sectors.