Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Sidd]

So Gazprom cannot be bought on HL now?

[Plan-b]

2 minutes ago, Sidd said:

So Gazprom cannot be bought on HL now?

Or anywhere it seems....

[23rdian]

4 minutes ago, Sidd said:

So Gazprom cannot be bought on HL now?

Nor ii

[Barnsey]

NOT SHARE ADVICE but Johnson Matthey is another that's just popped up on my very interested list, 4% dividend, seems to be finding strength in recent days after being truly hated for a while.

[Majorpain]

8 minutes ago, Sidd said:

So Gazprom cannot be bought on HL now?

LSE has blocked trading the ADR for the minute until Moscow stock exchange re-opens.  ADR should be linked price wise and not having Moscow open is causing issues.

[Sidd]

 

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

LSE has blocked trading the ADR for the minute until Moscow stock exchange re-opens.  ADR should be linked price wise and not having Moscow open is causing issues.

Thanks, i really want to get me some at these insane prices. I will take the risk

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

WHY all the bogged reps...get a grip guys, if we lose our ruskie stocks, we'll get a consolation prize from Putoon in the form of a bevy of beauties!

 

I'm having this one, so YOU @HousePriceMania can bugger off!

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

That bit in bold is starting to loom up in the background as a reason/consequence for what's going on.People in the West think their govts are in charge of this situation.I'm not so sure.If Gromen;s right then the Chinese are currently swapping yaun for Russian gas/oil.

 

I don't know if you remember but about two years or more back we had an excellent discussion down ehre about the dollar and the conclusion was that the dollar had one crisis left in it.It's playing out.If you haven't watched that Gromen vid DB then I'd reccomend it.Nothing you don't already know I guess but brings it all together under one roof so to speak.

He talks a lot about how these oil price rises are the beginning of a long cycle of rises and price inflation more generally.I speak as someone who was a committed deflationist until I listened to your reasoning and luckily,it got me postioning for it before it arrived.Thanks for your efforts.

Most were and are clueless.Inflation is the only game in town.Governments will spend and spend,Next they will remove red tape so insurance companies and pension funds can invest more in housing for rent,energy etc etc.Its 99% certain.Dis-inflation is a bit like drugs,fags,gambling and women.You have a fantastic 20 years but then have to get back in shape or die.

The problem we have here is that, to outflank inflation we risk getting smashed in a BK.I think however low return on capital employed companies with high assets will be the best place for the bulk of holdings,then try to get some other areas that inflation might help.Thats companies with millions of customers,but small overheads and low staff levels.Its one of the reasons im laddering into the asset managers,as per Kaplan chairman and directors bought stock in Abrdn after results.

The war is just part of the cycle,its the massive investments it will help bring forward that matter.£3000 a year energy bills cant be sustained though,government needs to invest in pumped storage etc on a huge scale while getting gas from the north sea.Their planning for this has been shocking

[geordie_lurch]

Oil Surges Into 'Super-Backwardation' After OPEC+ Sticks To Production Plan, Shuns Biden's Demands

"In what one observer called "the fastest one yet" - the meeting lasted just 13 minutes, beating last month’s record for brevity - OPEC+ 23-nation coalition led by Saudi Arabia ratified an increase of 400,000 barrels a day on Wednesday, continuing the gradual restoration of output halted during the pandemic, according to delegate sources."

"Additionally, this has all sent WTI and Brent time-spreads into what is being called 'super-backwardation' as WTI M1-M6 spreads explode to record highs suggesting the tightness of current oil markets is becoming extreme..."

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-surges-super-backwardation-after-opec-sticks-production-plan-shuns-bidens-demands

[kibuc]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.£3000 a year energy bills cant be sustained though

Maybe it can tho, once £3000 is the new £1500.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, kibuc said:

Maybe it can tho, once £3000 is the new £1500.

Quite,though the lag with incomes will destroy the government.All roads lead to massive investment,or collapse.Im sure red tape will be removed in the budget for pension funds.

[DurhamBorn]

39 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Especially for @DurhamBorn

 

 

What hedge?  

[No One]

Just sold 1000gbp in BP to but 1000 in Evraz inside my SIPP.

We'll see what comes off it .

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Siggy said:

Looks like Poly will leave the FTSE 100 to be replaced most likely by the Scottish Play 

Samantha's predictions on the 25th Feb but that seems a long time ago now!

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

Quick summary of the rules

https://www.everydayinvestor.co.uk/ftse-quarterly-review-stock-market-promotion-relegation/

 

[No One]

1 hour ago, Bear Hug said:

Polymetal, Evraz etc is like catching a falling knife this morning. I place an order at minus 10% of current price and it fills few min later. 

OK, exaggerated slightly, but - 5% maybe. 

Tiny amounts on  trading 212

Mad man here.

See my other post, I put in 1k from some of my Oily shares see if it plays out over the next years as a multibanger,

[sancho panza]

oil crossed the $100 mark in Feb 08.Peaked in July 08 .

an entry for the 'history doesn't repeat but sude does rhyme' section TM M.Twain

[Sugarlips]

Blimey, something is going to break soon..

 

[Sidd]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/fed-chair-powell-notes-highly-uncertain-ukraine-impact-but-says-rate-hikes-are-still-coming.html

 

It is clear now from this that the uncertainty itself is becoming rather uncertain

[Noallegiance]

3 minutes ago, Sidd said:

It is clear certain now from this that the uncertainty itself is becoming rather uncertain

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Sidd said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/fed-chair-powell-notes-highly-uncertain-ukraine-impact-but-says-rate-hikes-are-still-coming.html

 

It is clear now from this that the uncertainty itself is becoming rather uncertain

My roadmap was telling me they needed to increase rates but still print.I spent quite a while considering that because it was leftfield even for my roadmap,but it looks like those signals might be right after all.Great for inflation shares horrific for house prices.

[planit]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My roadmap was telling me they needed to increase rates but still print.I spent quite a while considering that because it was leftfield even for my roadmap,but it looks like those signals might be right after all.Great for inflation shares horrific for house prices.

If the market has digested the expected rate hikes and easy money announced to 'combat' the Russia commodity/finance constipation situation it would lay the foundations for gold and stockmarket to take off.

Gold was held back the last 3 months due to the accelerating tightening. I was surprised how little it fell.

[Democorruptcy]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Quite,though the lag with incomes will destroy the government.All roads lead to massive investment,or collapse.Im sure red tape will be removed in the budget for pension funds.

I posted about the insurance 'big bang' last month

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

NOT SHARE ADVICE but Johnson Matthey is another that's just popped up on my very interested list, 4% dividend, seems to be finding strength in recent days after being truly hated for a while.

Interesting as mine too () but I didn't like the company fundamentals.

[23rdian]

3 hours ago, Craig said:

Yep, bought some POLY last night then was immediately struck by the fear I'd bought Polyfilla or some shite.

Fortunately it seems legit...

You'd have probally better spent the money on Polyfilla

[Harley]

49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My roadmap was telling me they needed to increase rates but still print.I spent quite a while considering that because it was leftfield even for my roadmap,but it looks like those signals might be right after all.Great for inflation shares horrific for house prices.

I posted that's what some guy/gal was saying to George Gammon a while back.  Smoke and mirrors.  Feet on both pedals, like some sort of racing car driver!  Watch what they do, all of it!