Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

7 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm sure the companies will do well, but will shareholders benefit?  

Over the medium to long-term I think they will.

 

Seems to me that we're entering a new cold war. Russia is pivoting from Europe to Asia, and south America,which will take time, but let's be honest, they are the future.

 

We'll be sat shivering in our houses with fucking heat pumps and an electric car we can't afford to charge 

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Poly yield/divi showing as 36.41% and Gazprom as 44.56% on HL 
  

Only downside is that I will need to turn up to the Russian embassy to pick up my 18.7 million ruble  (£45.40) dividend and you need to bring your own plastic bag. You need to say the code word to a babushka round the back since your sanction busting

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Only downside is that I will need to turn up to the Russian embassy to pick up my 18.7 million ruble  (£45.40) dividend and you need to bring your own plastic bag. You need to say the code word to a babushka round the back since your sanction busting

I support Ukraine....

https://ukraine-brides.net/blog/propper-time-visit-ukraine/

[HousePriceMania]

No more boom and bust Gordon told me.

 

[Sugarlips]

Every PM investor right now

[Yadda yadda yadda]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-starting-fail-buyers-balk-buying-russian-oil-despite-record-discounts

Zerohedge so not necessarily 100% accurate.

Un/intended consequences or a miscalculation could blow everything up. How convenient it would be to blame a massive crash and recession on the Russians invading their neighbours rather than over a decade of profligacy and money printing.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Just read the last 27 pages here, as I have been away for a couple of days (no-internet) what a LAUGH!

 

Open my email acc, and WTF got an email from HL stating they bought  PLOY  ...yet i cancelled it last thursday when they couldn't get the price i put in for, i'm SURE of this cancel even though the platform was jittery.

 

I've emailed them, and let you guys know what happens, but just to give you guys the heads up, if you cancel an order - i would double check it now, and make sure in the transactions you can see the "cancelled order" well pissed off with HL at the mo :-(

 

[JMD]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

Tough love incoming.  I've been thinking about that comment.  It misses the point, the elephant in the room.  The behaviour is merely a mirror.  This has become a traders market.  I said this a while back, echoing what the smart guys were saying.  Passive is over and active is back.  It'll be a shock to all, hopefully earlier here than others.  Sarah Beeny and co made money on houses as much because the market was going up.  Easy if you weren't completely stupid or hated by god.  Now we'll see who has the smarts, training, and aptitude.  One reason I've been working on the technicals, etc and have a new respect for the likes of Tim Price and his move to trend trading.  Most of what I do has a reason!  I fear some here (like me in my younger days) has as much technical depth as a dart board which has been fine to date but now are either going to be very lucky or very fecked.  Lazy and lucky, put the hours in and earn it, or get out of the game!

Funny you should mention Tim Price, discovered him a year or so ago and his Price Value partners firm and his State of the Markets podcasts have been a bit of an inspiration for me. The point you make for active trading is a good one. I don't have technical trading skills so have decided to begin 'very gently' by using a momentum investing strategy. As you say, Tim Price's fund/service uses trend investing, and which I believe is similar to momentum. I think he operates equal allocations to equities/PM's/bond debt(?)/trend investing, which apart from the trend investing is all medium/long term buy and hold. 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

 

At first glance, I immediately thought that must be Ukraine in flames with a pilot ejector-seat in the foreground!! ...that damn Russian war puts everyone on edge, or is that just me and my (war ravaged) portfolio?!

[wherebee]

31 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Just read the last 27 pages here, as I have been away for a couple of days (no-internet) what a LAUGH!

 

Open my email acc, and WTF got an email from HL stating they bought  PLOY  ...yet i cancelled it last thursday when they couldn't get the price i put in for, i'm SURE of this cancel even though the platform was jittery.

 

I've emailed them, and let you guys know what happens, but just to give you guys the heads up, if you cancel an order - i would double check it now, and make sure in the transactions you can see the "cancelled order" well pissed off with HL at the mo :-(

 

surely you want to wait a few days.  If peace talks break through this week, that POLY holding could quad in price!

[Libspero]

28 minutes ago, wherebee said:

surely you want to wait a few days.  If peace talks break through this week, that POLY holding could quad in price!

Is it the war or the sanctions the market are afraid of?  I can't see the latter going away any time soon. 

 

[jamtomorrow]

7 hours ago, Loki said:

I'm sure the companies will do well, but will shareholders benefit?  

This in spades.

The industries will still be there and they will do just fine.

The thing that's changed and will continue changing is the likes of you, me and the 99% being allowed access to the instruments of ownership.

The great globalisation that accompanied the great disinflation of the last 40 years created a proliferation of all sorts of cross-border instruments and mechanisms, all enabled by the extraordinary rise of global finance. We take most of it for granted, and it seems unshakeable.

But much of that will now unwind. So please don't mistake the situation with ADRs of Russian companies as some kind of exceptional circumstance. It is very much the opposite, a straw in the wind. The system will find all sorts of ways to lock us out: wealth taxes, expropriation, nationalisation, private buyouts, withdrawal of instruments.

I'm still positioned for a possible BK (50% of my stockpot is still sat on the sidelines in cash), but the 50% I've deployed is going under the microscope, and will likely undergo some big changes from here.

Put it this way, if I can't drive to the home of the CEO of the intermediary or counterparty in under half a day to put a brick through their window, I'm probably going to divest. I want my saved labour in the hands of scumbags that live right among us, just to keep the incentives nice and straight.

[Pip321]

44 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

This in spades.

The industries will still be there and they will do just fine.

The thing that's changed and will continue changing is the likes of you, me and the 99% being allowed access to the instruments of ownership.

The great globalisation that accompanied the great disinflation of the last 40 years created a proliferation of all sorts of cross-border instruments and mechanisms, all enabled by the extraordinary rise of global finance. We take most of it for granted, and it seems unshakeable.

But much of that will now unwind. So please don't mistake the situation with ADRs of Russian companies as some kind of exceptional circumstance. It is very much the opposite, a straw in the wind. The system will find all sorts of ways to lock us out: wealth taxes, expropriation, nationalisation, private buyouts, withdrawal of instruments.

I'm still positioned for a possible BK (50% of my stockpot is still sat on the sidelines in cash), but the 50% I've deployed is going under the microscope, and will likely undergo some big changes from here.

Put it this way, if I can't drive to the home of the CEO of the intermediary or counterparty in under half a day to put a brick through their window, I'm probably going to divest. I want my saved labour in the hands of scumbags that live right among us, just to keep the incentives nice and straight.

Agree. I don’t want to use Warren Buffet so generically because he has many facets and approaches….but I will. 😆

The one criticism I had of his ‘general’ approach was it always seems a bit too US focussed. However…..I read your post and perhaps that makes more sense, for him that is his geography and allows more ‘hands on’. 😉

[MrXxxx]

https://www.reuters.com/business/russia-impose-temporary-curbs-foreigners-seeking-exit-assets-2022-03-01/

QUOTE:

"Russia's huge sovereign wealth fund will also be pressed into action, spending up to 1 trillion roubles ($10.3 billion) to buy shares in Russian companies, a government decree showed, confirming an earlier report by Reuters."

The recent hoarding of gold now makes sense in light of the current situation, and with its 'isolation' [and so lack of other competing buyers] Russia will buy back a lot of the former state infrastructure at 'knocked down' prices....pity the UK sold all its gold as otherwise we could have done the same!

[Democorruptcy]

The pretty play

Quote

 

A final dividend of US$ 0.52 per share (2020: US$ 0.89 per share) or approx. US$ 246 million in total representing 50% of the Group's underlying net earnings for 2H 2021 has been proposed by the Board in accordance with Polymetal's dividend policy. This brings the total dividend declared for the FY 2021 to US$ 0.97 per share (2020: US$ 1.29 per share) or approx. US$ 459 million (2020: US$ 608 million).

The final dividend will be subject to shareholder approval at the Annual General Meeting of the Company to be held on 25 April 2022. Assuming shareholder approval is received, the dividend will be paid on 27 May 2022 in US Dollars, with an option for shareholders to elect to receive the dividend in pounds sterling or euro. Such an election should be made no later than 10 May 2022. Payments in pounds sterling and euro will be based on the USD/GBP and USD/EUR exchange rates determined by the Company on 13 May 2022 and announced immediately thereafter.

Edit:

EX DIV DATE:              05 May 2022

RECORD DATE:              06 May 2022

 

 

[planit]

18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The pretty play

A final dividend of US$ 0.52 per share (2020: US$ 0.89 per share) or approx. US$ 246 million in total representing 50% of the Group's underlying net earnings for 2H 2021 has been proposed by the Board in accordance with Polymetal's dividend policy. 

3 Months seems a VERY long way away. 

 

Quote from POLY:

Unfortunately last week the gold we were due to pay the dividends with has been subject to an 'incident' and has been turned into ¹⁹⁵Au.

We anticipate it will be safe to sell in 8.3 years when the radioactivity has died down.

 

[Pip321]

12 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

A final dividend of US$ 0.52 per share (2020: US$ 0.89 per share) or approx. US$ 246 million in total representing 50% of the Group's underlying net earnings for 2H 2021 has been proposed by the Board in accordance with Polymetal's dividend policy. This brings the total dividend declared for the FY 2021 to US$ 0.97 per share (2020: US$ 1.29 per share) or approx. US$ 459 million (2020: US$ 608 million).

The final dividend will be subject to shareholder approval at the Annual General Meeting of the Company to be held on 25 April 2022. Assuming shareholder approval is received, the dividend will be paid on 27 May 2022 in US Dollars, with an option for shareholders to elect to receive the dividend in pounds sterling or euro. Such an election should be made no later than 10 May 2022. Payments in pounds sterling and euro will be based on the USD/GBP and USD/EUR exchange rates determined by the Company on 13 May 2022 and announced immediately thereafter.

 

The pretty play

As suspected the company is fine, even condemns the Ukraine situation as much as anyone in Russia may dare.....its the geography and political implications of owning Russian shares that is the problem. I have had a flutter on Poly (average 5.54p) but disclosure is my total direct share investment is a small % of overall position and Poly is a small % of that %. 

Just for info....the share price twitched this morning but no real reaction to what was a strong business announcement and 'promise' of a dividend. 

Wider picture will be interesting (not just Poly). Does Putin want Russian shares to drop that are traded abroad and hurt Western investors or would he prefer to support these companies which in turn means he supports Westerners who in theory are 'supporting' Russian business? Lots of theories all of which likely will be wrong including the fact at these prices he wont need to confiscate companies but the government could buy (or further buy)  large stakes in some.  

'Knowing' what happens next for shareholders (short and long term) is very difficult.

[nirvana]

BP becoming too woke? And you might know I rate eCONomists alongside bankers, right that my 1 post for today 

 

[Loki]

BP are a WEF partner, if you're a TFHer like me this might explain decisions that seem bizarre

[geordie_lurch]

Yet BP is 17.25p (4.83%) this morning

[Metalheadz]

Sberbank looks like a steal at these levels - get your calculators out gang!

[HousePriceMania]

Repsol, the share to own, good call DB.

 

Repsol SA

12.09 EUR+1.01 (9.10%)past 5 days

BME: REP

[DurhamBorn]

Anything happening,im busy finishing off removing this hedge i started in September ,got a bit out of hand  big ladders out ,

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

BP are a WEF partner, if you're a TFHer like me this might explain decisions that seem bizarre

I have just been thinking that this war will be an excuse to spend vast sums of public money on renewables. Wean ourselves off Russia narrative. Perhaps BP already know this.