Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

Apologies I’m a little old fashioned 

You're not alone.....

[Harley]

45 minutes ago, Metalheadz said:

Anyone buying/own something in Aluminium? I'm looking for something that hasn't already turned in to a meme stock 

(apologies in advance for mentioning something that isn't dropping 50% each day)

Yes, they have been popping up and are on my "unintended(?) consequences of sanctions" list.

[Calcutta]

My great plan to offset any gambling losses was to buy a load of Flutter. That's not going so well today. 

[Harley]

So people can buy Russian ADRs and GDRs on the LSE but non-residents can't buy or sell on the Moscow exchange?

[Democorruptcy]

37 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happening with ABDN ?

 

Market Summary > Abrdn PLC

197.08 GBX-27.60 (-12.28%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 11:21 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: ABDN

Report today

Abrdn's annual profit rose as the asset manager posted higher full-year revenue for the first time since it was formed from a merger in 2017.

Adjusted operating profit for the year to the end of December rose 47% to £323m as revenue increased to £1.52bn from £1.43bn. Pretax profit under IFRS accounting rules rose to £1.12bn from £838m.

Net outflows, excluding those from Lloyds Banking Group, were £3.2bn compared with £12.3bn a year earlier. Abrdn kept its annual dividend unchanged at 14.6p a share.

Abrdn was formed almost five years ago when Aberdeen Asset Management combined with Standard Life in a deal that combined two bastions of the Scottish financial sector. But Standard Life Aberdeen struggled as funds flowed out, including from a long-standing mandate with Lloyds's Scottish Widows arm.

Chief Executive Stephen Bird was hired in 2020 and in 2021 bought Interactive Investor for £1.5bn to tap the platform's 400,000 retail customers. He also renamed the group Abrdn in a move that attracted ridicule but which he says marks a break with the past and unifies the company's brand.

Bird said: "This was our reset year. In 2021 we set out a clear strategy for how we will create long-term sustainable growth and arrest the decline in revenue. For the first time since the merger, we have reported an increase in revenue for the full year."
 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 minutes ago, Harley said:

So people can buy Russian ADRs and GDRs on the LSE but non-residents can't buy or sell on the Moscow exchange?

Is there a major disconnect in prices between the two or can Russians buy here and repatriate the shares to pick up any arbitrage that develops? If banking is blocked then that might be blocked too.

[Joncrete Cungle]

The money I was tempted to gamble on Gazprom & Poly had gone into Aberdn and I managed to get some more BP at 351. Fair play to all those buying the Russian companies at these prices, but it's not for me. Decided to stick to my plan as war and more defence spending looks inflationary to a simpleton like me. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Trigger finger poised over Gazprom if that gets to $1.xx.

It touched into it today.

What a buy that would be, asset-wise.

Morally questionable, but they're going to be fine long-term even if they sell zero product to the west. They'll do what they're going to do with or without my £s anyway.

If western investors aren't allowed to hold it, so be it. 

But if they are it's a company that produces the stuff that this thread is all about. And it's a solid dividend payer that's 70% off right now.

Just seems like a binary bet. Double/treble/quadruple your money or lose it all to confiscation. Not really an investment. If the war finished and investment bridges with Russia aren't broken then there will likely be a risk weighting in the share prices of these companies for some time. I'm not increasing my meagre positions in these firms but I'm not realising losses either.

Could really do with knowing the outcome of the war before everyone else. Rothschild style. In fact was that the Crimean war where his messenger got back before official news?

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Trigger finger poised over Gazprom if that gets to $1.xx.

It touched into it today.

What a buy that would be, asset-wise.

Morally questionable, but they're going to be fine long-term even if they sell zero product to the west. They'll do what they're going to do with or without my £s anyway.

If western investors aren't allowed to hold it, so be it. 

But if they are it's a company that produces the stuff that this thread is all about. And it's a solid dividend payer that's 70% off right now.

Oops, I doubled down on the quote by mistake.

[NogintheNog]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

In other news EVRAZ is fine since its a uk co.

Fine if you like 80% loss that is.

I've held Evraz in my S&S ISA for years and thought at today's price I'd have another little nibble. However despite re submitting the order well above the price the page kept coming up with a fault code. So I rang the help line and the agent (I finally!) got through to immediately knew the problem. Basically on HSBC's platform Evraz is now a sell only stock. You can't buy it due to the sanctions.......

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, NogintheNog said:

I've held Evraz in my S&S ISA for years and thought at today's price I'd have another little nibble. However despite re submitting the order well above the price the page kept coming up with a fault code. So I rang the help line and the agent (I finally!) got through to immediately knew the problem. Basically on HSBC's platform Evraz is now a sell only stock. You can't buy it due to the sanctions.......

yeah i just fucked it off and sold it, wasnt much anyway cant be arsed with this shit so just decided to bite the bullet and simplify the portfolio, just that and gazprom are rusky linked luckily im spread far and wide like mr xyy's hair (and anus).

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I'm not buying anything. Markets grinding down generally. I don't think they'll stop until there is news about the war moving to a close.

You can argue for South America and Japan. Also resource stocks based outside the West and Russia.

I'm keeping what I've got. The BK is possible now. US markets defied reason yesterday, IMO. If it collapses I'll buy. The money I have on the sidelines is for buying low. Prices marked down for risk. I don't know which risks will play out.

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Is there a major disconnect in prices between the two or can Russians buy here and repatriate the shares to pick up an arbitrage that develops? If banking is blocked then that might be blocked too.

There does seem to be a difference (in USD assuming I'm correctly using the TradingView currency feature):

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I've held Evraz in my S&S ISA for years and thought at today's price I'd have another little nibble. However despite re submitting the order well above the price the page kept coming up with a fault code. So I rang the help line and the agent (I finally!) got through to immediately knew the problem. Basically on HSBC's platform Evraz is now a sell only stock. You can't buy it due to the sanctions.......

I'm not sure if anyone on here has asked this question so here goes. If the big boys are holding massive loses, with other peoples money, I should imagine that they will be wanting a payday ( rise in the SP ) later on. Someone mentioned its a bit like BP, kept down but came back strong. so, if there is a peace settlement ( Russia , Ukraine) will that be the payday they are waiting for, and if so, I would assume the timescale would be years. Am I right in thinking this is what will happen ?

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Trigger finger poised over Gazprom if that gets to $1.xx.

It touched into it today.

What a buy that would be, asset-wise.

Morally questionable, but they're going to be fine long-term even if they sell zero product to the west. They'll do what they're going to do with or without my £s anyway.

If western investors aren't allowed to hold it, so be it. 

But if they are it's a company that produces the stuff that this thread is all about. And it's a solid dividend payer that's 70% off right now.

Gazprom/Poly/co are either the best or worst investments going ATM.  Pure gambling.  If it works out your looking at a solid dividend paying stock at an insanely cheap price.  Or £0.  

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

So what are you thinking, that BP whilst being seen to do the right thing are 'playing the long game' regarding Russia, and thinking that 'favours' will be repaid in the future?...i

Probably not, although its a big club and i'm not in it.  Plenty of 3rd rate MP's (looking at you Miliband) were agitating for something to be done, then something happened and it actually helped Putin.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

There does seem to be a difference (assuming I'm correctly using the TradingView currency feature):

OGZD is two shares isn't it? If I'm reading your graph correctly then it is a massive difference. In a rush, will check later.

[jamtomorrow]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

There does seem to be a difference (assuming I'm correctly using the TradingView currency feature):

Pardon my ignorance, but who typically acts as the intermediary on an ADR? If I buy a Gazprom ADR on the LSE, who is my counterparty for matching that purchase on the MCX and are *they* now at risk? Seems whoever that is now has a whole pile of liabilities on the LSE in the form of ADRs, while the "real" instruments on the MSE are now inaccessible to the intermediary (since CBR barred foreign entities). 

Or is an ADR now effectively a bet that the situation will unwind somehow?

[Hancock]

14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

As ever,like the typical playground bully you are,you don't face up to the issue I criticized you for,which was taking majorpain's nuanced reading of the Fed's position,and then twisting it so you could attack him personally,for no real reason that I could see other than your own bitterness at your position in life which appears mainly to be down to your own ineptitude.

I'm here to learn like 99% of other people but you have set yourself up as the 'c*** caller' in chief and don't seem to like it much when someone calls out your behaviour.

What generally differentiates the discussion here is that we have vibrant discourse based upon a healthy exchange of different ideas and theses within a framework that endorses a mutual respect for contrary opinions.

Below is another instance where you tooka great discussion and turned your ire onto one of the participants for what seems the simple reason from what I can see ,that she's more switched on than you.

I've never set myself up a paragon of trading success,and have widely owned my losses on the Scottish play and in Northern Rock.We are the sum of our experiences,but there's no need for you to be as vile and petty as you can be at times.

Criticise? Yours was personal insult that went into what you presume is my private life, so i replied to several points.

As for taking shit, i'm very thick skinned, but this is the internet so insults are an absolute irrelevance. I wish my life was so perfect that criticism on a website is an issue.

Mr Smile makes multiple and frequent personal attacks against a certain individual about his housing views, he's no delicate flower.

But one thing you are right on, without meaning it, is this topic has morphed from being about the "Deflationary Bust...." into a "traders" topic ..... imho its now akin to a cult.

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

OGZD is two shares isn't it? If I'm reading your graph correctly then it is a massive difference. In a rush, will check later.

Me too but something to look at.  Here is another chart showing the MOEX share, the LSE ADS, and the XETR ADR, hopefully all correctly restated in RUB.  Yes, TradingView says the LSE ADS is 2:1.  Not sure about the XETR ADR (nothing mentioned but that price....!).

I assume I have the correct versions of Gazprom (versus say SIBN).

PS:  Maybe the POLY purchases mentioned earlier are related to some arbing?!!

PPS: TradingView showing MOEX volume at zero (versus v(10) at 177m) while LSE at 12m (versus v(10) at 25m) and XETR at 5m (versus v(10) of 10m).

PPS:  Are folk about to learn about the dark world of ADRS, etc!!!

[NogintheNog]

36 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

40 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I've held Evraz in my S&S ISA for years and thought at today's price I'd have another little nibble. However despite re submitting the order well above the price the page kept coming up with a fault code. So I rang the help line and the agent (I finally!) got through to immediately knew the problem. Basically on HSBC's platform Evraz is now a sell only stock. You can't buy it due to the sanctions.......

yeah i just fucked it off and sold it, wasnt much anyway cant be arsed with this shit so just decided to bite the bullet and simplify the portfolio, just that and gazprom are rusky linked luckily im spread far and wide like mr xyy's hair (and anus).

And that's the real question here. You sold, but someone was on the other side of that trade, buying. Who? It certainly can't be me.

Blackrock????

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, NogintheNog said:

And that's the real question here. You sold, but someone was on the other side of that trade, buying. Who? It certainly can't be me.

Blackrock????

Within the fund/manager if they arent allowed to trade externally? Only balance out internal trades?

[Castlevania]

3 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

And that's the real question here. You sold, but someone was on the other side of that trade, buying. Who? It certainly can't be me.

Blackrock????

It’s bugging me that British companies and institutions are walking away from their Russian investments after a week. Total are like nah we’ll hold onto our Russian projects. Then you have the Americans such as Blackrock doubling down.

[BadAlchemy]

eeny meeney miney moe

mute hancock or sancho...

One quite rude, or savvy dude?

See ya hancock, off you go.

[ThoughtCriminal]

I think some on here are being a bit hard on themselves for "bad" buys with poly etc.

 

In this inflationary environment doing nothing and sitting in cash isn't really an option, so you have to do something and that means that sometimes you're going to get things wrong. Maybe very wrong.

 

Take solace in knowing that 95% of the country are utter fucking imbeciles with Ukraine flags on their profiles because the media told them to. A week ago they couldn't have found Kiev on a map, and they certainly didn't give a flying fucking about Ukrainians slaughtering women and children with Grad rockets in the Donbas for the past 7 years.

[kibuc]

50 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I'm not buying anything. Markets grinding down generally. I don't think they'll stop until there is news about the war moving to a close.

I'd expect this week to be much more ruthless than the first one, with Putin needing something to show for his invasion before they go back to the negotiating table. So, quite possible, even more war atrocities and even harsher reactions from the West.

That being said, a lot of it might probably be already priced in or being in the process of getting priced in, contributing to the price action of the last 2 days. After all, it doesn't require big brainz to figure out that pulling out is not an option for Putin at the moment.

I might get my 3rd Poly ladder and 1st Gazprom ladder today, if HL allows me today. Huge risks, yes, but those are real companies with real assets at massive discount. I take that over Facebooks and Netflixes of this world any day.

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think some on here are being a bit hard on themselves for "bad" buys with poly etc.

 

In this inflationary environment doing nothing and sitting in cash isn't really an option, so you have to do something and that means that sometimes you're going to get things wrong. Maybe very wrong.

 

Take solace in knowing that 95% of the country are utter fucking imbeciles with Ukraine flags on their profiles because the media told them to. A week ago they couldn't have found Kiev on a map, and they certainly didn't give a flying fucking about Ukrainians slaughtering women and children with Grad rockets in the Donbas for the past 7 years.

In good news Covid is over. Thanks Vlad