Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, WICAO said:

I know it's running very much swimming upstream in this thread but for a UK investor who wanted to be hands off a LifeStrategy fund of the appropriate '% equities' might just do the trick.  Then just sit back and collect the dividends assuming they bought the income and not accumulation variant.

All eggs in one basket would be one of the big reasons I wouldn't do that but maybe 5 buckets with LS being one would certainly simplify things.

Maybe of interest https://monevator.com/vanguard-lifestrategy/

Very helpful...thanks

I am not a fan on 'pooled investments' despite the fact that 94% of my equities are currently in a pooled investment . Its the high costs, the lack of visible 'surrender value' and the fact that managers are paid to 'do average' that I don't like. Disclosure I am in the Pru Growth Fund and despite being retired I don't to draw from it because of other income. 

What I have learned over the past few weeks is that active 'trading/gambling'   or even more passive investing long term investing but in cyclical shares isn't quite as passive as I thought. (understatement) 

So I think I am going to shift over to your way of thinking but try find funds that are low cost, visible and meet the spirit of this thread. 

My assets are fairly chunky (another understatement) and all I am really looking to do is beat inflation with some protection. Easier said than done....to be fair that is probably what my expensive SIPP is doing and I have a massive chunk of that in cash (about 20% is in a cash fund earning nowt) 

So I have had my fun....now to review my pension pot and the costs. 

On the side, I maybe have 3/4 relative small holdings (but still chunky in real terms) of big company shares high divi paying shares in my low cost ISAs and enjoy the spring.  

[Funn3r]

3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Best one is Cobalt60 as steel likes Cobalt.

Apparently it is possibly good for you.

Circa 1983, construction was finished of 1700 apartments in Taiwan which were built with steel contaminated with cobalt-60. Approximately 10,000 people occupied these buildings during a 9–20 year period. On average, these people unknowingly received a radiation dose of 0.4 Sv. This large group did not suffer a higher incidence of cancer mortality, as the linear no-threshold model would predict, but suffered a lower cancer mortality than the general Taiwan public. These observations appear to be compatible with the radiation hormesis model.

"In the 1970s  an ampoule with cesium was lost during industrial activities in Karanskyi. One of the large enterprises mined gravel and crushed stone in this quarry. The vial fell out of a measuring device during the planning stage.

An extraction of gravel had to be stopped immediately. The search for the ampoule lasted a week, but ended in failure. That days, the rubble from the quarry was used extensively for the construction of Olympic facilities in Moscow, as well as for building houses in the surrounding cities."

Quarried material built some apartment blocks. Years later the mysterious string of "jinxed apartment" deaths finally resolved.

https://www.orangesmile.com/extreme/en/radioactive-zones/infected-apartment-in-kramatorsk.htm

 

 

 

[Sidd]

10 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Let me get this right…..

POLY will ‘gap up’ from 350p to 476p when it opens tomorrow morning. 

A massive 36% ….. really? 
 

Someone knows something….

I am confused. Google is showing a closing price of 476 vs HL and Yahoo showing circa 350. Is this the after market price?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, WICAO said:

We're all different so not judging anyone.  We all have to do what we think is right after plenty of DYOR.  I'm here to share and learn.  Nothing more and nothing less.

From memory the Permanent Portfolio calls for 25% in PM's (might actually be 25% in gold).

Yes 25% gold. 

I've spent a lot of time on appropriate (for me) allocation models, etc.  That to me is the #1 essential.  I used to follow the Permanent Portfolio but have changed it somewhat to reflect things like inflation, bond yields, commodities, etc.  The next was a systematic approach.  That to me was the #2 essential. 

So FWIW currently:

40% Income

. Stocks, ETFs, Trusts, Bonds

. Each holding has to yield above 3% after WHT

. Each holding has to be in an uptrend (technicals determine the ladders)

. Each holding has to pass select fundamental criteria

. Buy and hold but actively managed on a weekly/monthly technical basis

. Active management means the last ladder is traded up or down as necessary

4% Growth

. Stocks, ETFs, Trusts, Bonds

. A technically based trend following approach

. The technicals determine the ladders

. On a weekly and monthly basis, no day trading, etc

. No fundamental or yield criteria applied

. Currently a small allocation and mostly ETFs (e.g. GDX) as I lack the time

23% Hard

. PMs, Commodities, Crypto

. Waiting for relative pullbacks to increase the commodity exposure

. Excludes equities (e.g. REITS) as hard is more than just a financial asset class to me

33% Cash and Bonds

. Now grouped together given inflation/yields/monetary madness, etc.

. Too high for me, but atm.....!

With this split I can better measure performance.  These are actual percentages.  I have very rough targets (or more like upper limits) as I assess reasonableness according to the current macro, etc picture.  But 25% Hard seems reasonable.

PS: As a result, Ukraine/Russia meant nothing material to my portfolio overall.

PPS: Performance measurement is key because if I don't produce alpha I'll just roll that 40% or so income and growth into a number of ETFs and funds and get on with my life!

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

What's all the (self) flagellation about?  We're all adults making decisions based on our own unique circumstances aren't we?  I would suggest counting our blessings at being interested observers of this shitshow rather than caught in the middle of it.

[HousePriceMania]

24 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Let me get this right…..

POLY will ‘gap up’ from 350p to 476p when it opens tomorrow morning. 

A massive 36% ….. really? 
 

Someone knows something….

More likely to Gap down to 76p.

Was surprised to see that chart myself.  

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

What's all the (self) flagellation about?  We're all adults making decisions based on our own unique circumstances aren't we?  I would suggest counting our blessings at being interested observers of this shitshow rather than caught in the middle of it.

Well said.  90% of the country has no idea what is happening, they know something isn't right, probably blame covid and the Russians.  At least we all know we're fucked....and have a slight chance of doing something about it.

[Jesus Wept]

18 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

"In the 1970s  an ampoule with cesium was lost during industrial activities in Karanskyi. One of the large enterprises mined gravel and crushed stone in this quarry. The vial fell out of a measuring device during the planning …..

For 9 years, while the ampoule was in the wall, 6 people died and another 17 tenants have been recognized as disabled in the radioactive flat. 
 

Fucking hell…..

[Loki]

 

Quote

 

Online dealing not available

Due to ongoing events in Russia and potential limitations on the ability to settle share trades we are currently unable to trade Russian GDRs. We will update this message if and when trading can resume.

 

 

HL latest on PJSC

[HousePriceMania]

21 minutes ago, Sidd said:

I am confused. Google is showing a closing price of 476 vs HL and Yahoo showing circa 350. Is this the after market price?

No idea where google get's it's info, would expect HL to more likely be right

 

Interactive Brokers say 

 

POLY

POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL PLC

 

LSE

351.20

 

-56.01%

 

 

So I wont get too excited.

[MithrilVest]

4 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Theres a sutle difference though.

If you already have a million, a 10% haircut still leaves you nice big cash pot of 900K.

If you have 5k, then it doesnt really make much difference if you lose 500.

Its all relative to when you are on the graph... For most a 500 punt is worth the gamble.

The flip side to this though, is that if you have a million and take a 10k punt on POLY (or whatever) then even if your bet pays off and it, say, quadruples in value then you've only moved your 1 Million on by 3%.

To 'move the needle' you either need to bet large or let time do the heavy lifting for you, which is what I think @WICAO does.

I've had a small punt on POLY and GazProm, but it's less than 1% of my investments, it's not going to accelerate my retirement. It's either going to go to zero, in which case meh, or it's going to pay for a nice treat, it's not going to materially affect my life.

To anyone who has filled their boots in this situation, I wish you all the luck in the world!

[Pip321]

44 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Let me get this right…..

POLY will ‘gap up’ from 350p to 476p when it opens tomorrow morning. 

A massive 36% ….. really? 
 

Someone knows something….

 

33 minutes ago, Sidd said:

I am confused. Google is showing a closing price of 476 vs HL and Yahoo showing circa 350. Is this the after market price?

 

17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

More likely to Gap down to 76p.

Was surprised to see that chart myself.  

Yeah, google does this quite a lot on this any many other shares. Seems to possibly be getting a feed from deals after market….that doesn’t necessarily mean a real time trade but I guess maybe even trades from during the day and a general ‘tidying up’ after close.

I have seen these shoot up, shoot down and do all sorts…small and massive.

Based on my extensive research, analysis and experience I found that it bears absolutely no clue whatsoever as to what will happen tomorrow. 😆😆😆

Good luck all. 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Thanks. Have you considered offshore oil explorers? I understand this specialist sector might be next big thing when drilling licenses around US coast, etc are allowed again.                                                                                                I've been looking, but so far not finding many, US asset managers who pay a half-way decent divi. If/whenI find some I will post.

Like most things I'm pretty agnostic.  I just wait for things to pop up (have to have a 3%+ yield and technicals to start with) and then I take a look.  If it's the sort of thing I might like, it'll come to me!  A few asset managers have popped up but as a rule anything O&G (at least in the West) is overbought atm.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Any thoughts @Cattle Prod?

Main (>$500m cap) Chinese players.  Most looking overbought as is the sector generally but in exceptional times......!   I already own some.  @Cattle Prod care to comment?

[CannonFodder]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This thread has become like an Opium den,but poly is your drug of choice  ,Im tempted to buy £200  though just to be in the group hug ."The Russian share"

 

 

I like the term nutcracker that someone used.

or perhaps the russian roulette

 

[arrow]

A lot of people here are invested in Polymetal, so I thought I'd post this article from FT. It does strike me that the situation is similar to how oil/gas companies were hated. So. perhaps in two years a lot of you will be sitting on huge profits or not . I don't know to be honest. Polymetal does seem to be ok financially and I wouldnt worry about Norway’s sovereign wealth fund selling its stake if it's on the basis of esg and not sound finacial sense.

 

FTSE 100 gold producer Polymetal lost half its market value on Monday as the west ramped up sanctions on Russia over its attack on Ukraine and one of its biggest shareholders prepared to sell.

Shares in the London-listed company, which operates eight mines and a state of the art processing plant in Russia and Kazakhstan, dropped 56 per cent to 351.2p, its lowest level since listing in London more than a decade ago.

Analysts said investors were dumping stocks exposed to Russia after the EU, UK and US announced new economic restrictions on Moscow over the weekend.

“There is a wall of sellers and very few buyers,” said Jonathan Guy, analyst at Berenberg. “It’s a crazy market.” Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, one of Polymetal’s top 10 shareholders, has said it will dump all of its Russian investments as part of a wider package of support for Ukraine.

Analysts expect Polymetal, whose £1.6bn value is down from £7bn a year ago, to declare a final dividend of 75 cents a share when it reports results on Wednesday. Analysts reckon the money needed to cover the dividend has already been sent to Polymetal’s bank account in Cyprus but the company could decide not to make the payment and preserve cash in light of heightened market volatility.

“Obviously that’s a big concern for Polymetal shareholders because a lot of them hold it for the dividend as much as the gold exposure,” said Guy. Polymetal makes most of its revenue from selling gold to Russian banks, which in turn dispose of the metal on international gold markets. But it also sells concentrated gold ore to China where it is processed by local smelters.

With domestic Russian banks effectively cut off from the international banking system, domestic producers will be looking to Russian’s central bank as the buyer of last resort, according to analysts. This should provide them with the roubles needed to pay wages and supplies.

The London Bullion Market Association, which oversees London’s $5tn gold market, has already revoked the membership of three Russian banks — Otkritie, VTB and Sovcombank. Russia’s central bank on Sunday said it would resume gold purchases two years after it ended a long-running buying spree that helped prop up local producers.

It stepped up its purchases of gold following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and at the end of November last year was sitting on a hoard of just under 2,300 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. At current prices, its gold stockpile — the sixth largest in the world — is worth $153bn and accounts for roughly a fifth of the bank’s official reserves.

Polymetal was not the only Russian gold miner hit hard on Monday, with Petropavlovsk falling 15 per cent to a three-year low of 8p. The gold producer needs to refinance a bond in November in which roughly $300mn of principal is outstanding. Peter Malin-Jones, analyst at Peel Hunt, said that while the company would be able to refinance the loan with Russian banks it was not clear how it would repay bondholders.

“The challenge is not refinancing the facility but actually repaying it,” he said. Polymetal ended 2021 with net debt of $1.65bn, according to Guy. Almost 40 per cent of its debt is with European banks and if it is forced to refinance that debt domestically or with Chinese banks it is likely to face higher rate of interest, he said.

[JimmyTheBruce]

17 minutes ago, arrow said:

Almost 40 per cent of its debt is with European banks and if it is forced to refinance that debt domestically or with Chinese banks it is likely to face higher rate of interest, he said.

What's that saying about banks and debtors and the relative balance of power?

[CVG]

3 hours ago, WICAO said:

From memory the Permanent Portfolio calls for 25% in PM's (might actually be 25% in gold).

I follow the Golden Butterfly portfolio (outline), so 20% for me including Gold, Silver, Physical, vaulted, Miners, ETF's.

[CannonFodder]

I.m learning a lot this week, its great, though education is expensive.

really seeing the strengths of more diversification moving forwards. PMs, cash and wider geographical splits. 

Good to get this knowledge sooner in life

[sancho panza]

On 26/02/2022 at 19:51, Hancock said:

Sorry for late reply, but thought not worth it as you seemingly have a very high opinion of yourself for making a bit of money on the stock market. 

I rarely drink, not looking for sympathy, i'm more than aware my decision are my own fault, but i had to laugh at your claim this is a "traders forum".

I'm most certainly not a trader and i don't have a trigger finger .... though i made a bit of money in my SIPP by buying in the 2020 crash, hardly the work of genius, more a case of going out to work and earning money ... and then not pulling my non existent trigger finger in the months prior on the presumption something wasn't quite right. 

But lets be fair to buy 70 grands worth of shares in one company or about 1/3rd of ones house deposit is gambling.

Originally this topic was started so people didn't lose money due to inflation, but its now seemingly morphed into a "trading forum for rank amateurs" with one guy sadly down a hell of a lot of money, due to owning shares in Russian based companies. I do hope he isn't suffering, as it reminds me of the guy on HPC who went balls deep buying gold shares with his house deposit prior to them crashing about a decade ago..

Can't but help think this topic has morphed into something it shouldn't have, and people have been suckered into thinking they're far more financially savvy than they actually are with people very possibly losing 1000s of pounds they can ill afford on what is looking like a disaster in Russia. 

As for Sunak if anyone thinks he created the SDLT holiday to get liquidity into the economy, as opposed to blatantly inflate houses prices, then i suggest they listen to what he said at the time!

As ever,like the typical playground bully you are,you don't face up to the issue I criticized you for,which was taking majorpain's nuanced reading of the Fed's position,and then twisting it so you could attack him personally,for no real reason that I could see other than your own bitterness at your position in life which appears mainly to be down to your own ineptitude.

I'm here to learn like 99% of other people but you have set yourself up as the 'c*** caller' in chief and don't seem to like it much when someone calls out your behaviour.

What generally differentiates the discussion here is that we have vibrant discourse based upon a healthy exchange of different ideas and theses within a framework that endorses a mutual respect for contrary opinions.

Below is another instance where you tooka great discussion and turned your ire onto one of the participants for what seems the simple reason from what I can see ,that she's more switched on than you.

I've never set myself up a paragon of trading success,and have widely owned my losses on the Scottish play and in Northern Rock.We are the sum of our experiences,but there's no need for you to be as vile and petty as you can be at times.

[mcdongle]

20 hours ago, wherebee said:

Jesus.  both the speaker and the audience in NZ are complete fuckwits.

If you were to listen to talkback radio here you would realize a lot of kiwis have no idea what is going on in the world

[Hunty]

11 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

God that 25% divi on Poly is an evil temptress. Don't forget that bit @Hunty if you're feeling down, there has been no divi cut, no reason to cut it, and although the water is murky right now, you haven't been told you're not going to be paid it out.

Great SP buy price today bud, I do not think they will cut the div. From what I can gather the money is sitting in USD in their Cyprus bank accounts. (75c) my guess on the financials. Could get a nice bump Wednesday am.

My 18 month trading/div profit was £180k. At 800p that profit was gone and my original £720k pot was going to be sniffed at. So I went all out Friday pm taking no hit on my original pot. It's been a fun 18 months but at my age why risk a pot of 720k cash in drawdown.

I nearly went in today, but I may be tempted Sub 300p. If it goes tomorrow.

Great reading this thread today, DB is right, Poly is the threads opium at the moment.

Good luck all, it's a journey. Great thread.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, Pinkpanther said:

Anyway I decided last thursday to take the risk and bought 70 shares at £7.10 ( I ment to get it at sub £6 but I clicked accept instead of decline) only to watch it tank to £5.05 then go back up.

Not sure what broker you are using, but buying in such low value means that a £20 trading fee [£10 in, £10 out] means that on this trade [~£500] you need to make a 4% return on your shares to 'break even', and that's before even considering the spread. If you have small sums such as £500 personally I think you are better 'saving' them up and then buying your ladder.

Note, just my opinion, DYOR etc.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, WICAO said:

Maybe all of us with some shiny could sit around (not sure what we'd sit around as a fire might attract attention) and look at our precious.  

On a more serious note what % of your wealth do you aim to hold in PM's?  I've decided on 5% as it doesn't have a yield and I want as many £'s as possible to earn their keep.

....but PM miners do! ....well some, until their assets are commandeered by some crazy guy ;-)

[Loki]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

Not sure what broker you are using, but buying in such low value means that a £20 trading fee [£10 in, £10 out] means that on this trade [~£500] you need to make a 4% return on your shares to 'break even', and that's before even considering the spread. If you have small sums such as £500 personally I think you are better 'saving' them up and then buying your ladder.

Note, just my opinion, DYOR etc.

Divis help to some extent there too