Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm planning my strategy for when I leave it all to my wife (who has no interest in this kind of thing). I started looking at the the Vanguard Lifestyle funds - say 80%. I like the fact that it was tilted to the UK (20% FTSE 350) and only 20% US, but then I was somewhat horrified to find all the Us stocks also in the 20% Developed Market (excl UK) fund. So too overweight in Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Amazon etc for my liking. I need to find a single fund that isn't so heavily biased towards the FAANG's.

Yep, that's the issue with many broad trusts, funds and ETFs.  I find I have to go down a level from worldwide to regional (sometimes country) to better control the allocations. 

[DurhamBorn]

Dont worry about antibiotics,iv got a huge stash of the best ones in the world (Fortum) enough for you all, i used to make it.Funny enough the active in it is worth more than gold weight for weight 

Iv also got a stash of Durex Joy Jelly Lube,i used to make that as well,the stash went down regular years ago,but not so much now 

[WICAO]

10 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

It's only money. Life expectancy drops to zero for us all on a long enough timeline.

Agreed.  If you want to see that in action a calculator I use when I start to think bad financial things http://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/ 

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, WICAO said:

That's slowly starting to become something I'm thinking about as well.  Mrs WICAO is learning a bit but her heart really isn't in it so it's going to take a long time if we ever get there.

I'm hoping I can get her far enough that I can eventually write a small instruction manual that goes something like:

1. These are the accounts where all the money is.

2. Sell them all and put the funds into a at x, b at y and c at z.

3. Every month take whatever free cash is in these accounts.

4. Enjoy the rest of your life.

Plus if I/we have a stroke, onset dementia, etc.  There will come a time I'll need to decomplex.  I'll just roll my shares into my (few) ETFs and trusts (that's the change I referred to above as I've started setting out the pipework).  Maybe I'll even be able to buy an annuity before then!

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Everyone is gambling just some are good or very good at it and more informed than others.

The person buying shares in Russia at a time of war for a quick win is gambling; but if he chose to put the same sum in a FTSE tracker for a decade, its less akin to gambling. 

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, Hancock said:

M stupidity may have cost 9 days work (if i sell now), far more than a fancy steak dinner but not enough to bankrupt me. 

Its enough to realise sleeping soundly, is far more important than making a few grand.

Jumping in when everything was imploding in 2020 worked out very well for me, as i couldn't have cared less when i was deep underwater as i knew it'd just be a short term measure ... Putin shares are a whole different ballgame as those 9 days work could still be added to. 

Live and learn.

 

It's not just Putin though, any country could decide tomorrow to do the same. 

There is no scenario where anyone's investments are 100% secure. You're own government can take anything it likes off you, directly or by underhand means. 

We should all be invested in London property of course, though if the man with the poo in the tin nukes it then I dont think you'll get a bail out this time.

People bought wedding rings in the past so they'd have something of value that was small, portable and relatively safe that they could sell/pawn if TSHTF, a sound idea IMHO.

Anyway·...just popping out to buy something.....

[Green Devil]

24 minutes ago, Hancock said:

With the exception of DurhamBorn and a few others who seem to know what they're doing, that's exactly what it's turned into!

Seems like most of the gambling bets are losing big right now!

[WICAO]

14 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The trouble is WICAO, when inflation is at 10% and rising and interest rates are being deliberately kept at 0% then your financial future is non-existent anyway unless you're lucky enough to have the right investments and/or full blown government support.

What we have here is not gambling, it's one of these....

 

 

I'm banking on my financial future being just fine even in the current situation.  Sure it's bad but we've had plenty of bad in the past.  For me the only question I have to answer is will the sequence of returns that are about to be dealt in the next 40 years be significantly worse than any in history.  If the answer is no then all is good.

[Green Devil]

2 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I'm banking on my financial future being just fine even in the current situation.  Sure it's bad but we've had plenty of bad in the past.  For me the only question I have to answer is will the sequence of returns that are about to be dealt in the next 40 years be significantly worse than any in history.  If the answer is no then all is good.

Theres a sutle difference though.

If you already have a million, a 10% haircut still leaves you nice big cash pot of 900K.

If you have 5k, then it doesnt really make much difference if you lose 500.

Its all relative to when you are on the graph... For most a 500 punt is worth the gamble.

[Kilham]

The difference between gambling and investing is simply information, the current situation makes it difficult to extract from all the noise.

[WICAO]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Plus if I/we have a stroke, onset dementia, etc.  There will come a time I'll need to decomplex.  I'll just roll my shares into my (few) ETFs and trusts (that's the change I referred to above as I've started setting out the pipework).  Maybe I'll even be able to buy an annuity before then!

Have you written that down so you or somebody acting on your behalf knows what to do?

Recently I've been starting to think a little about this.  I need to think a lot more and do something about it though.

[Democorruptcy]

The number of posts here are correlated to big news in the markets. The West weaponising the financial markets due to the first war in Europe for years is quite big to be fair. One way to cut the number of posts is to put on 'ignore' those people classed as "gamblers".

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Seems like most of the gambling bets are losing big right now!

I'm risk averse and dont like to gamble but I feel my hand has been forced by Sunak and the central bankers, it's maybe what they want, but right now it looks like the only play in town to me to get into commodities, real stuff that people need.

I shorted the shares below though, for a bit of fun/leaning experience and I'd say that was a gamble, but I like to think it's an educated guess that housing bubble has peaked after IRs starting rising, Term Funding was cut, Stamp Duty holiday gone and the UKPropertyLion showing listing volumes having collapsed, that alone should take down RM and Savills.

The property shorts have covered my POLY losses that I held and will continue to hold, fully expecting them to go to 0.

The APPLE short was just because the NASDAW shares look bat shit crazy and a lot of them started falling, that and people I know actively saying how mental the price of an i-phone is.

You cant win them all so you need to be as diverse as you can but there's no point diversifying into sectors that look like an insane bubble, that in itself is a gamble.  
 

How many people get caught out investing in some large fund only to find out the fund's a bit of a scam and they lock out the investors.

Then look at P2P, that was a gamble too.

Housing, that's the only one way bet.....

[HousePriceMania]

Sensible share buying advice here

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dont worry about antibiotics,iv got a huge stash of the best ones in the world (Fortum) enough for you all, i used to make it.Funny enough the active in it is worth more than gold weight for weight 

Iv also got a stash of Durex Joy Jelly Lube,i used to make that as well,the stash went down regular years ago,but not so much now 

Can you get any Erythromicin? I've finally found one I can take.

[WICAO]

12 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Theres a sutle difference though.

If you already have a million, a 10% haircut still leaves you nice big cash pot of 900K.

If you have 5k, then it doesnt really make much difference if you lose 500.

Its all relative to when you are on the graph... For most a 500 punt is worth the gamble.

You're right that 500 probably won't make much difference but the wrong mindset will certainly affect a financial future.

[23rdian]

34 minutes ago, Hancock said:

M stupidity may have cost 9 days work (if i sell now), far more than a fancy steak dinner but not enough to bankrupt me. 

Its enough to realise sleeping soundly, is far more important than making a few grand.

Jumping in when everything was imploding in 2020 worked out very well for me, as i couldn't have cared less when i was deep underwater as i knew it'd just be a short term measure ... Putin shares are a whole different ballgame as those 9 days work could still be added to. 

Live and learn.

 

Swings and roundabouts. You got risk some just to stay still these days. It's gonna get eaten by inflation anyway in cash. Shockingly easy to throw money at things when you not seeing the actual notes though. 

[WICAO]

11 minutes ago, Kilham said:

The difference between gambling and investing is simply information, the current situation makes it difficult to extract from all the noise.

I'm not so sure.  Do you maybe mean gambling and trading?

I have educated myself but have no information and feel like I'm doing ok.  I call myself an investor.

[Hancock]

9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Housing, that's the only one way bet.....

My thoughts now are its better to have a house to pass on, than some shares.

In hindsight it'd have been the best place to stick money from 2020, when rent is considered.

[DoINeedOne]

Maybe others are gambling but we all invest in different ways, POLY is not even 3% of my net worth

And my rules are i allow 10% for speculation or lets say a gamble but even that 10% can't just be one thing

 

 

 

 

[23rdian]

29 minutes ago, Hancock said:

The person buying shares in Russia at a time of war for a quick win is gambling; but if he chose to put the same sum in a FTSE tracker for a decade, its less akin to gambling. 

Do both. They are not mutually exclusive

[WICAO]

14 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I'm risk averse and dont like to gamble but I feel my hand has been forced by Sunak and the central bankers, it's maybe what they want, but right now it looks like the only play in town to me to get into commodities, real stuff that people need.

I shorted the shares below though, for a bit of fun/leaning experience and I'd say that was a gamble, but I like to think it's an educated guess that housing bubble has peaked after IRs starting rising, Term Funding was cut, Stamp Duty holiday gone and the UKPropertyLion showing listing volumes having collapsed, that alone should take down RM and Savills.

The property shorts have covered my POLY losses that I held and will continue to hold, fully expecting them to go to 0.

The APPLE short was just because the NASDAW shares look bat shit crazy and a lot of them started falling, that and people I know actively saying how mental the price of an i-phone is.

You cant win them all so you need to be as diverse as you can but there's no point diversifying into sectors that look like an insane bubble, that in itself is a gamble.  
 

How many people get caught out investing in some large fund only to find out the fund's a bit of a scam and they lock out the investors.

Then look at P2P, that was a gamble too.

Housing, that's the only one way bet.....

What are you gambling for?  If it's for fun then fair enough.  If it's for your financial future do you really think you're going to be able to gamble your way to a financial future.  How many bets do you have to win to achieve the goal and then importantly once you achieve it how are you going to hang on to it?  What do you know that millions of others, including many who are closer to the important information than you are, don't?

Blaming Sunak et al is playing the victim.  There's always a reason something isn't going to work out.  The global markets have seen it all before - wars, depressions, inflation, deflation...

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The number of posts here are correlated to big news in the markets. The West weaponising the financial markets due to the first war in Europe for years is quite big to be fair. One way to cut the number of posts is to put on 'ignore' those people classed as "gamblers".

I see this place as (in part) a "thinkubator".  I don't expect it to be boring (I can do that fine) but I like it to stimulate my thinking.  Other reasons to be here too, not pizza though (too many carbs).

[Red Debt Redemption]

30 minutes ago, Hancock said:

The person buying shares in Russia at a time of war for a quick win is gambling; but if he chose to put the same sum in a FTSE tracker for a decade, its less akin to gambling. 

Careful now you'll be asking Evraz for a steel shovel next. 

[Hancock]

11 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Swings and roundabouts. You got risk some just to stay still these days. It's gonna get eaten by inflation anyway in cash. Shockingly easy to throw money at things when you not seeing the actual notes though. 

I get paid a large amount of money for my day rate, as i invested money in some equipment that i rent out alongside myself.  

Hence the only risk i really need to take is either driving to a work site or getting on a helicopter.

Shares spoken about on here that are in my SIPP will be there for the long haul, but i just see it being easier to go to work for 30-50 days a year. Or to invest in more equipment to rent out, as opposed to being a trader!