Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Starsend]

9 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Can you tell me what the right asset class is right now?  I freely admit I have no idea.

Are we at the top or bottom or somewhere in between right now?  Again, I freely admit I have no idea.

Agree compound interest is very much your friend unless you're loaded with debt from over extending on consumerist tat.

Why do you want so much residential property?

...and £12-15k on a skiing holiday per year.  Holy shit, I can live a good life on that amount.

Bonds - Bubble

Growth stocks - Bubble

Value stocks (particularly emerging markets) - Cheap / Fair value

Real estate - Bubble

Commodities - Fair value-ish

Precious metals - Cheap

 

Just my views. As mentioned it's very important to be in the right assets at the right time. Sometimes it pays to just keep it simple.

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, WICAO said:

Can you tell me what the right asset class is right now?  I freely admit I have no idea.

 

Good question !!!!

it could be fiat currency right now, has to have it's turn at some point 

1) Is it property ( big no from me obviously )

2) Is it tech shares ( big no from me )

3) is it Gold/Silver/etc ( big no from me but it wouldn't stop me buying it ).

4) Is it bonds ( No chance )

5 ) is it energy/commodities, isn't that the point of this thread, go big into the stuff people need because the prices are going to front run inflation ?  So that would be a yes for me.

6) Is it War ?  ( a good bet this one, I have RR and BAE, RR has been a dog but would do well in a war ).

7) Banks shares ( maybe, 15 years of nothing and massive state hand outs, maybe there time has come ) 

8) Infrastructure....the one way the government has out of the mess they are in, inflation and infrastructure spending, that's a fair bet.

9) Space exploration, wake me up when anti-gravity is invented.

10) Bitcoin ?  HELL NO.

[WICAO]

2 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Bonds - Bubble

Growth stocks - Bubble

Value stocks (particularly emerging markets) - Cheap / Fair value

Real estate - Bubble

Commodities - Fair value-ish

Precious metals - Cheap

 

Just my views. As mentioned it's very important to be in the right assets at the right time. Sometimes it pays to just keep it simple.

So you're 100% value stocks and commodities inc precious metals?

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, WICAO said:

So you're 100% value stocks and commodities inc precious metals?

Yes, pretty much. Fair bit of cash at the moment as well, some in Premium bonds waiting until I see something worthwhile deploying it into.

[WICAO]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Good question !!!!

it could be fiat currency right now, has to have it's turn at some point 

1) Is it property ( big no from me obviously )

2) Is it tech shares ( big no from me )

3) is it Gold/Silver/etc ( big no from me but it wouldn't stop me buying it ).

4) Is it bonds ( No chance )

5 ) is it energy/commodities, isn't that the point of this thread, go big into the stuff people need because the prices are going to front run inflation ?  So that would be a yes for me.

6) Is it War ?  ( a good bet this one, I have RR and BAE, RR has been a dog but would do well in a war ).

7) Banks shares ( maybe, 15 years of nothing and massive state hand outs, maybe there time has come ) 

8) Infrastructure....the one way the government has out of the mess they are in, inflation and infrastructure spending, that's a fair bet.

9) Space exploration, wake me up when anti-gravity is invented.

10) Bitcoin ?  HELL NO.

I freely admit I have no idea. 

How many people would have thought a 'global pandemic' would result in massive house price increases.  Of course it shouldn't have but then somebody/ies did something and then they did.  I never know who that somebody is and what they'll do.  I also don't know that time and time again.

So I just buy the market and go fishing.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, WICAO said:

Nice job.

I'm banking on most of the world surviving but if it doesn't can you PM me the address of your bunker?  I'm not sure what I have to offer in return though other than semi-intelligent conversation.

No not bunkers etc etc. Just physical metals for me personally being semi- intelligent and all.  Shiny rocks - good.

What’s worked in the last 40 disinflation cycle may not work in the next few years in an inflationary one that we now find ourselves in. It’s looking increasingly more fragile and much as we can ignore the noise, I can’t ignore the irrational actions of governments from the last two years up until now with current events. 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Best one is Cobalt60 as steel likes Cobalt.

Apparently it is possibly good for you.

Circa 1983, construction was finished of 1700 apartments in Taiwan which were built with steel contaminated with cobalt-60. Approximately 10,000 people occupied these buildings during a 9–20 year period. On average, these people unknowingly received a radiation dose of 0.4 Sv. This large group did not suffer a higher incidence of cancer mortality, as the linear no-threshold model would predict, but suffered a lower cancer mortality than the general Taiwan public. These observations appear to be compatible with the radiation hormesis model.

Great information! I'm swopping my tin foil hat for a cobalt one tomorrow.                                                           (Seriously though weren't there trials in the 90s for cobalt administered daily in tablet form?)

[leonardratso]

hmm forgot about this, had some left over isa money a while back so took an aim punt, lucky there;

[Pinkpanther]

I appreciate Others sharing their thoughts and views. - yep it does seem to be the polymetal thread at the moment but for newish investors like me I apprecate peoples honesty. (I assume its honesty)

The first rule I learnt was to only invest what you can afford to lose - (not great advice if you pension is in the stock market)

The second rule i have learnt (from this forum) is to ladder in.

and the third rule is the higher potential gain/return = more risk.

I think this whole thing is "noise" and will go back to relative normal in the near future (I may well be wrong, and It certanly is not just "noise" for the poor inhabitants of the Ukraine) but Ive decided to act on my conviction.

I looked at the price of polymetal at £10.50 and thought it was a reasonable risk! But I did not buy.

Anyway I decided last thursday to take the risk and bought 70 shares at £7.10 ( I ment to get it at sub £6 but I clicked accept instead of decline) only to watch it tank to £5.05 then go back up.

Today I decided i would ladder and managed to get another 70 at £3.47.

So I have decided that I will risk losing £750 for either good dividends, or reasonable return of my investment in 3/5 years time. Am I prepared to lose the money? - well there is the first rule.

But ultimately after my first share purchase coming up 2 years ago I am overall (exc-dividends) 20% up, and still have 3 years to go before i fully assess "my" performance. So thanks to all who share their views and experiences (positive and negative) to help others.

 

[WICAO]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

No not bunkers etc etc. Just physical metals for me personally being semi- intelligent and all.  Shiny rocks - good.

What’s worked in the last 40 disinflation cycle may not work in the next few years in an inflationary one that we now find ourselves in. It’s looking increasingly more fragile and much as we can ignore the noise, I can’t ignore the irrational actions of governments from the last two years up until now with current events. 

Maybe all of us with some shiny could sit around (not sure what we'd sit around as a fire might attract attention) and look at our precious.  

On a more serious note what % of your wealth do you aim to hold in PM's?  I've decided on 5% as it doesn't have a yield and I want as many £'s as possible to earn their keep.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Have you sold your Hong Kong shares Harley? Not trying to pry, but as you've spoken in the past about them, I would be interested in why... China risk, divi witholding tax, etc?

I still own some but did pull back.  They didn't have legs.  But I'm overdue a look but there are so many to look at atm.  I've been more interested in Japan but again have some work to do.  With HK, maybe time to look at the oil refiners!

[WICAO]

1 minute ago, Pinkpanther said:

...

The first rule I learnt was to only invest what you can afford to lose - (not great advice if you pension is in the stock market)

...

If I lost everything I have invested I'd have a very big problem...

Are you sure you mean investing and not gambling?

[Pinkpanther]

1 minute ago, WICAO said:

If I lost everything I have invested I'd have a very big problem...

Are you sure you mean investing and not gambling?

Is putting money in the stock market not a form of rationalised gambling?

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, WICAO said:

If I lost everything I have invested I'd have a very big problem...

Are you sure you mean investing and not gambling?

So would a cyber event mean you were a gambler after all? 

[WICAO]

2 minutes ago, Pinkpanther said:

Is putting money in the stock market not a form of rationalised gambling?

Maybe, but how else am I going to feed myself when I'm 90?

[DurhamBorn]

I tend to think the words of Morrissey that sage of Walley Range are apt for looking at stocks.

"Do not go to them,let them come to you,just like i do,just like ....i..... do"

The best investment at the moment is a barbell.

I dont ever really care if what i have will last,how long etc etc.I learned the day i was 15 and Karen broke my heart on the old railway bridge that life tends to come and go,and given i grew up in the poorest town in England in a depression and enjoyed it i doubt id care.

[WICAO]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

So would a cyber event mean you were a gambler after all? 

A cyber event that affected my multiple wrapper providers who then didn't have appropriate back-ups and then didn't recognise my regular screenshot records.  Yes that would cause me a big problem.

If that was to occur though I think I'd have even bigger problems to deal with as I would expect the world outside my door would be pretty ugly. 

[Starsend]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I tend to think the words of Morrissey that sage of Walley Range are apt for looking at stocks.

"Do not go to them,let them come to you,just like i do,just like ....i..... do"

The best investment at the moment is a barbell.

I dont ever really care if what i have will last,how long etc etc.I learned the day i was 15 and Karen broke my heart on the old railway bridge that life tends to come and go,and given i grew up in the poorest town in England in a depression and enjoyed it i doubt id care.

This Karen... Fit was she?

11 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Maybe, but how else am I going to feed myself when I'm 90?

Apparently if you get yourself down to Aldi and pretend you've got no money then people buy you cheese.

[WICAO]

3 minutes ago, Starsend said:

...

Apparently if you get yourself down to Aldi and pretend you've got no money then people buy you cheese.

Don't really watch the MSM and now in Australia.  Have I missed something?

[DoINeedOne]

17 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Maybe all of us with some shiny could sit around (not sure what we'd sit around as a fire might attract attention) and look at our precious.  

On a more serious note what % of your wealth do you aim to hold in PM's?  I've decided on 5% as it doesn't have a yield and I want as many £'s as possible to earn their keep.

See thats where i will admit to being overweight in silver and gold 25+%, not including miners

So happy to sell down the gold etc to fund other things

[WICAO]

3 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

See thats where i will admit to being overweight in silver and gold 25+%, not including miners

So happy to sell down the gold etc to fund other things

We're all different so not judging anyone.  We all have to do what we think is right after plenty of DYOR.  I'm here to share and learn.  Nothing more and nothing less.

From memory the Permanent Portfolio calls for 25% in PM's (might actually be 25% in gold).

[JMD]

55 minutes ago, Harley said:

I still own some but did pull back.  They didn't have legs.  But I'm overdue a look but there are so many to look at atm.  I've been more interested in Japan but again have some work to do.  With HK, maybe time to look at the oil refiners!

Thanks. Have you considered offshore oil explorers? I understand this specialist sector might be next big thing when drilling licenses around US coast, etc are allowed again.                                                                                                I've been looking, but so far not finding many, US asset managers who pay a half-way decent divi. If/whenI find some I will post.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Rebuilding? Has Putin started bombing us already?

I meant we have relaxed our visa rules for Ukranians coming here.

I meant out there. Friends dads company did incredibly well during gulf war 1. Negotiated their end of the rebuilding contracts before the bombs had stopped dropping. All the 'friendly' nations got first dibs.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Isn't it better to crystalise your gains then get even more of someone elses tax back ?

Thats my plan from April. I stop contributing to my s+s isas then slowly feed it into my sipp over the next 3-5 years up to my earning limit, then put into drawdown and trickle in.
Plan to never pay tax again after April. Well thats the plan anyway.

[Animal Spirits]

17 hours ago, JMD said:

Interesting listen but pity Mike Green didn't expand more on his thesis about emerging markets not doing well from here. Does anyone more about Green's thinking here? Reminded me a little of Victor Shvets, though his view is extreme whereby em's ultimately require Marshall plan style bailout by the West (think it interesting, and imo adds to credibility, that a Asia banker would say such negative things about his own home market).

Likely relative dollar strength with continued bias for capital inflows into US asset markets.