Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

I had a buy order set up for Poly at £400 which I cancelled last night. Someone's going to get very rich or very poor.

 

Market Summary > Polymetal International PLC

393.80 GBX−404.60 (50.68%)today

28 Feb, 09:24 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: POLY

 

 

 

 

 

[CVG]

12 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Even if you don't want to trade on it (for information purposes only), open a spread betting account at IG and you can see how the market has really opened. Add your shares to a watchlist to see their price movements. If you are thinking of buying or selling on HL, check the way the price is changing on the spreads first.

Yes.Also uk.investing.com

[CVG]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I had a buy order set up for Poly at £400 which I cancelled last night. Someone's going to get very rich or very poor.

 

Market Summary > Polymetal International PLC

393.80 GBX−404.60 (50.68%)today

28 Feb, 09:24 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: POLY

 

 

 

 

 

Right. That's the last time I put in limit orders. I put one in on Thu at 460 when I thought that was outrageous. I forgot all about it! Investing/trading is stupid as you grow older.

[moneyscam]

15 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Just picked up another grands worth of POLY at 405.  I didn't manage to sell at 700ish, so fuckit.  I'll either come out smelling of roses, or the whole lot (5k GBP) will be gone.

If this resolves, 1000 POLY shares could be a nice earner.  If not, well, the other increases will more than cover.

I didn't want to go into the weekend long POLY so go out @ 771 for a small profit thank fuck. But I am seriously tempted now for a long term hold with a yield approaching 20%.

[Lightscribe]

34 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Just picked up another grands worth of POLY at 405.  I didn't manage to sell at 700ish, so fuckit.  I'll either come out smelling of roses, or the whole lot (5k GBP) will be gone.

If this resolves, 1000 POLY shares could be a nice earner.  If not, well, the other increases will more than cover.

You convinced me to go back in with one small ladder at 368. (This is why I don’t take days off work)

[jamtomorrow]

10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

This also missed the point that it's a zero sum game, when there is no other major supply source. We can all say "We're not going to import stinky Russian oil" and leave a 5-8mbpd (I checked my spreadsheet just now, they are a net exporter of over 8mbpd so a 5mbpd deficit is allowing for 3mbpd spare capacity in Iran and ...somewhere else...Venezuela maybe?) deficit, globally. But your average provincial 4 year term polo doesn't think golbally.

@Cattle Prod do you see anything other than demand destruction left?

Seems like western polity has decided that is now a price worth paying for regime change in Russia. 

[Axeman123]

10 hours ago, Loki said:

Also...

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, gold price goes down, war, gold price goes down, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, gold price goes down, global economic pandemic collapse, gold price goes down. 

Down from ~1200usd/oz in 2018 to ~1900usd/oz today? We are still in a massive bull market IMO.

[Boon]

Anyone know what is happening in the metals?

CAML seems to have done 10% right now. 

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

I didn't want to go into the weekend long POLY so go out @ 771 for a small profit thank fuck. But I am seriously tempted now for a long term hold with a yield approaching 20%.

I bought on Thursday and sold Friday and was again thinking the same as you when it dropped to 4.99 earlier but resisted the temptation. It seems to being priced ike it's going to be nationlised and investors aren't going to get a very good offer. Despite that just bought a few at 3.65 but I might have to put it in a bad bank as a non performing asset!

[Hancock]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Means nothing till the US opens tomorrow IMO.

I left the rig when POLY etc were down 30%, now down 50% or more .... if i sell now i'll have lost 7k over the weekend!

Financial illiteracy at its finest.

[23rdian]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I left the rig when POLY etc were down 30%, now down 50% or more .... if i sell now i'll have lost 7k over the weekend!

Financial illiteracy at its finest.

Fuck mate. Down too but the brokers don't help. Freetrade not topping up this morning despite everything I try. I managed to buy back in at 3.90 on ISA but that's probably going to turn to shit too

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Siggy said:

HL, won't quote me at all on Poly. Oh well,  probably for the best,  I suspect.

Yes today was always going to be the panic day, see how negotiations go in the coming days and weeks. Hope my 7k loss doesn't get larger.

 

 

[Pip321]

11 hours ago, Loki said:

Also...

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, gold price goes down, war, gold price goes down, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, gold price goes down, global economic pandemic collapse, gold price goes down. 

The Dow (up till now) has been like that. 

Invasion, means interest rates won’t go up so the Dow rises

Print money, buy shares, so the Dow rises

Talks taking place between Russians and Ukraine reported, in Belarus, invasion over? Dow goes up. 

Dow went mental on Friday and it seem they feel they are invincible. The dollar roars on despite the debts. 

And gold seemingly being manipulated possibly because it aids the West….but also keeping it low doesn’t expose how weak the FIAT currencies really are, just a whiff of that weakness with inflation.

Never mind….pushing against the tide for many years now and eventually water funds it’s true level. 

[Erewhon888]

11 hours ago, Hancock said:

Browder is the author of “Red Notice: 

Browder's lies about Magnitsky have been exposed repeatedly particularly in hostile deposition taking in the U.S.

There have been several books and films about him, his past and his associations.

Investigative journalist Lucy Komisar keeps a compilation of links.

https://www.thekomisarscoop.com/2021/07/ft-ap-reuters-promote-wm-browders-big-lie-about-magnitsky-hoax/

Quote

all of those media repeated, with no evidence, the lies built around the story that Browder has been peddling for a decade. I repeat the narratives and demolish them. I will send them to the media and to the various “fact-checking” and “truth-telling” organizations set up to counter fake news. I predict all will ignore these inconvenient truths.

 

[geordie_lurch]

Despite everything going on Gold and silver are still not even moving

[Hancock]

Just now, 23rdian said:

Fuck mate. Down too but the brokers don't help. Free trade not topping up this morning despite everything I try. I managed to buy back in at 3.90 on ISA but that's probably going to turn to shit too

Ive a load you can have for 700, will PM you my number.

Ive made a bit on VODA/CNA in the last 6 months, thats been sold so if i was to sell everything now i'd be about 5k down.

 

[Lightscribe]

7 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I left the rig when POLY etc were down 30%, now down 50% or more .... if i sell now i'll have lost 7k over the weekend!

Financial illiteracy at its finest.

Stop losses on riskier assets. I’ve learnt the hard way over the years. Russian assets have turned into crypto volatility, so I treat them as the same.

[BadAlchemy]

For anyone else holding BASF, they are down 6% this morning.

Some involvement with Nord Stream 2, plus legal issues on top, causing the drop most likely...

https://www.reuters.com/business/basf-predicts-full-year-profit-decline-economic-growth-slows-2022-02-25/

 

Also their results were released on Friday...

https://www.basf.com/global/en/media/news-releases/2022/02/p-22-138.html

Strong earnings and cashflow for 2021. Plus they will be passing on the inflation (energy, semiconductor shortages etc) via price increases in the coming months...

"Additional costs due to rising energy prices in Europe

BASF’s automotive-related businesses continued to be negatively impacted by the semiconductor shortage. In 2021 and particularly in the fourth quarter, higher raw materials prices and increased energy and logistics costs also burdened the earnings development in all segments. For BASF’s European sites, the additional costs due to further increased natural gas prices in 2021 amounted to around €1.5 billion. The fourth quarter of 2021 alone accounted for €0.8 billion of this amount.

Brudermüller announced: “We will implement further substantial price increases in the coming months to pass on the significantly higher costs and improve our margins in the downstream businesses.” The established pricing procedures in these businesses lead to a delay in passing on costs."

 

Not advice, DYOR etc

[Erewhon888]

1 minute ago, Erewhon888 said:

Browder's lies about Magnitsky have been exposed repeatedly particularly in hostile deposition taking in the U.S.

 

 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

Stop losses on riskier assets. I’ve learnt the hard way over the years.

I did but they opened lower than what i had the stop loss!

 

[geordie_lurch]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

Stop losses on riskier assets. I’ve learnt the hard way over the years.

As long as they aren't with HL.co.uk and / or it's a very busy morning as like I said up thread I had 2 that should have triggered this morning

[Hancock]

Just now, geordie_lurch said:

As long as they aren't with HL.co.uk and / or it's a very busy morning as like I said up thread I had 2 that should have triggered this morning

Yes same, i got an email telling me the stop loss was cancelled.

Poly is down 59% now ... fuck!

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I honestly don't think they've thought this through. It's pretty clear they haven't really, since most of them think we can transition to green energy easily. I think every barrel Russia can export will be bought. Mostly with dollars, too, but maybe China will buy more with Yuan now. Any enforced drop in oil consumption in the west means austerity, and in short order QE/Fiscal stimmies. This is why I'm focussed on gold, because that should smell it first.

Maybe not.  Or maybe they know this will resolve but have established their case for a more rapid move in the green agenda, net zero, etc.  This and other ways they could be using this "crisis" because they surely are.  PMs are a key focus area for me too.  I've heard it mention a couple of times a mix of gold miners and physical silver may be optimum given the way they play with the gold price, etc.  I don't know (but seems reasonable).  I'll spray and pray but with some miners being defo value plays why not!

[Democorruptcy]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

God that 25% divi on Poly is an evil temptress. Don't forget that bit @Hunty if you're feeling down, there has been no divi cut, no reason to cut it, and although the water is murky right now, you haven't been told you're not going to be paid it out.

It seems to lock up on IG and then when it re-opens it's a further chunk down. Now starts with a 2!

[23rdian]

2.92 now fuck. Sell orders rejected. Are these going to zero?