Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, invalid said:

 

So heartless, think of the children!

 

 

 

Perhaps a bit chubby, but not fat:

 

Errrr, where's the veg? Frozen broccoli or peas are not expensive!

 

 

Liar, liar, pants on fire.

 

 

Lets play spot the vegetables! As for the fruit, ok, bunch of bananas = lots of fruit.

 

 

 

 

 

I take it all back, some broccoli and mushrooms!

 

 

Am I being harsh? Maybe. It don't doubt that its hard with cra-see (no letter z allowed!) house prices and naff wages with kids to bring up.

I mean between them they are working three jobs, yes, three job across two people with long hours!

"Despite working long hours across three jobs, which include being a care worker, entertainer, valet and full-time student"

Never knew being a full time student was paid work. Any idea how much the pay is?

I wonder what they class as long hours? 3 hours a week? 50?

 

 

 

 

If they have spent even 4 weeks going three days per week without eating they should be of minimal fat build, assuming they weren't Rick Waller to start with.

It can be quite healthy, just drinking for 2-3 days.

I'm doing the 16/8 24 hour eating pattern with a cut down on snacks and sugar, plus exercise and the fat is falling off after 2-3 weeks.

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

just drinking for 2-3 days

I do that quite often.

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes, freezing the tax allowances for 5 years, kinda proves government knew all along that inflation was coming.                                                                                                                                                                               DB please could you break down that £640/week benefit figure? Not disputing it, in fact I'd like to have example figures to hand for when I attempt to tell colleagues that benefit-claimants vs low-wage earners is still a massive problem. Too many think Cameron/Osbourne solved this issue back when they introduced their benefit cap of 23k (was it?).

5 kids,£280 tax credits for kids,£70 family allowance ,£80 adult tax credits,£25 council tax benefit,£180 a week housing benefit.

She also runs a business from home she doesnt declare,likely £200 a week,her mother and step dad own the house,they bought it to rent to her,bennies paying it off and they will then give it to her once the kids are 18,he is ex police so tax payers paying him to buy a house to rent to step daughter to fleece more from taxpayers and helping to price out working people looking for a house.

[Shamone]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

5 kids,£280 tax credits for kids,£70 family allowance ,£80 adult tax credits,£25 council tax benefit,£180 a week housing benefit.

She also runs a business from home she doesnt declare,likely £200 a week,her mother and step dad own the house,they bought it to rent to her,bennies paying it off and they will then give it to her once the kids are 18,he is ex police so tax payers paying him to buy a house to rent to step daughter to fleece more from taxpayers and helping to price out working people looking for a house.

Absolute and complete state of this fucking cuntry.

[Lightly Toasted]

38 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

If they have spent even 4 weeks going three days per week without eating they should be of minimal fat build, assuming they weren't Rick Waller to start with.

It can be quite healthy, just drinking for 2-3 days.

I'm doing the 16/8 24 hour eating pattern with a cut down on snacks and sugar, plus exercise and the fat is falling off after 2-3 weeks.

The headline is a lie: underneath it clarifies that they

"often go without a full meal for three days"...

... but you should see their snacks!

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

5 kids,£280 tax credits for kids,£70 family allowance ,£80 adult tax credits,£25 council tax benefit,£180 a week housing benefit.

She also runs a business from home she doesnt declare,likely £200 a week,her mother and step dad own the house,they bought it to rent to her,bennies paying it off and they will then give it to her once the kids are 18,he is ex police so tax payers paying him to buy a house to rent to step daughter to fleece more from taxpayers and helping to price out working people looking for a house.

It's a lot more common than many folk appear to realise. There was a figure posted by King Penda about some woman on bennies who gets her £2100 pcm rent paid for her. That is more pcm than my Mrs takes home working full time.

[wherebee]

48 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

It's a lot more common than many folk appear to realise. There was a figure posted by King Penda about some woman on bennies who gets her £2100 pcm rent paid for her. That is more pcm than my Mrs takes home working full time.

it exposes how much of the benefit system is not to help people in need, it is to funnel money to owners of capital (in this case, the property) and away from owners of labour (in this case, taxpayers like most of us).

Russell Brand goes on about this a lot - the capture of social and tax systems by the rich.

[sancho panza]

On 20/05/2022 at 11:21, moneyscam said:

Interesting graphics showing how much trade relationships have changed over the last 30 years. In the context of the US primarily threatening secondary sanctions on anyone doing business with Russia, they don't quite have the leverage they used to have. And if Germany continues on its path of economic self suicide, it won't even be on the chart in 20 years.

Great visual there MS.I think the US is playing a really poor game here.All their efforts to increase their control of events are actually having the reverse effect

On 20/05/2022 at 19:52, AWW said:

My eldest just got a place at our third choice school.

I'm looking at the UK, my job, and the macro situation and wondering why I wouldn't just buy a F1 level motorhome for £150k and travel. Even just in the UK. No work, £20k income from my portfolio and I'll "home" school the kids.

Kinda looking to be talked out of it at this point. Thoughts?

There's all sorts of chaos going on in Leicestershire schools.I suspect the largest cause is people trying to avoid the city schools pushing out into the sticks.

Round our way-a few miles outside Leicester there's loads of kids not getting places at 1/2 choices.In the city itself,I spoke to a Deputy Head a few weeks back and they're on the verge of laying off staff as they no longer have enough applicants for two classes and are reducing to one intake.

Sign of the societal trend I suspect.

On 20/05/2022 at 20:06, AWW said:

I've had a few drinks, so fuck it, I'll ask. Is anyone up for a "thread gathering" in London in the summer?

Appreciate it's not Durham, but it's the Durham of the south.

I'd be up for it although I sadly work most weekends.Maybe a seprate thread?

[wherebee]

The Australian dollar will no longer be pushed down by the Reserve Bank of Australia, as the central bank unwinds its $280 billion government bond buying program.

RBA assistant governor for financial markets, Christopher Kent, said on Monday the purchase of federal and state bonds during the pandemic had lowered long-term government borrowing costs by about 0.3 of a percentage point and “contributed to a lower exchange rate”.

In other words, the green labor nutters are in charge and about to stop us digging shit up and selling it to the chinese, which is the only game in town for australia, so before the aussie dollar craters in response we are removing our fingers from the scales..

[The Grey Man]

1 hour ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

It's a lot more common than many folk appear to realise. There was a figure posted by King Penda about some woman on bennies who gets her £2100 pcm rent paid for her. That is more pcm than my Mrs takes home working full time.

A lot of money.

 

[RJT1979]

What's to stop anyone on benefits moving to London and getting 2100 for rent rather than 600 in Stoke?

[reformed nice guy]

22 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

What's to stop anyone on benefits moving to London and getting 2100 for rent rather than 600  nothing in Stoke Nigeria?

 

[Lightscribe]

5 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

It's a lot more common than many folk appear to realise. There was a figure posted by King Penda about some woman on bennies who gets her £2100 pcm rent paid for her. That is more pcm than my Mrs takes home working full time.

 

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

it exposes how much of the benefit system is not to help people in need, it is to funnel money to owners of capital (in this case, the property) and away from owners of labour (in this case, taxpayers like most of us).

Russell Brand goes on about this a lot - the capture of social and tax systems by the rich.

Yup (posted before but always worth a reminder on where the tax we pay goes to)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

 

Yup (posted before but always worth a reminder on where the tax we pay goes to)

Including pension payments, or salary sacrifice beyond a minimum level of £3k pa (6% of £50k), in salary for benefits calculations is an obvious measure. Would probably cost as much to implement as it would raise but fairness is part of the goal is it not?

Individual posts like that could well be trolls pointing out how ludicrous the situation is. The unquantified bonus could cause havoc with that as it would be taxed and see benefit withdrawal. It is also obvious that the pension can be accessed at 57 or as soon after as the children have left home and a house bought. I think I've seen that example before.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Trial balloon for systemic collapse, @DurhamBorn. Seems like elements of the govt just want to watch it burn.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/23/windfall-tax-could-help-pay-poorest-five-million-get-increase/

I see there are a lot of comments already between 3am and 7am. I expect universally against this, although I'm not bothered enough to try and get past the firewall to check.

A possible explanation is that they're all a bunch of communists who want people working part time and reliant on the state for top ups.

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I see there are a lot of comments already between 3am and 7am. I expect universally against this, although I'm not bothered enough to try and get past the firewall to check.

A possible explanation is that they're all a bunch of communists who want people working part time and reliant on the state for top ups.

Its a farce, its no the fault of the energy companies they are just doing the job of keeping the modern world alive .

It's the central banks and governments that have caused this massive inflation spike so they tax someone else in response to their own problems 

[Plan-b]

9 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

although I'm not bothered enough to try and get past the firewall to check.

 

12ft.io usually does it but can't see the comments for some reason

[geordie_lurch]

15 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I see there are a lot of comments already between 3am and 7am. I expect universally against this, although I'm not bothered enough to try and get past the firewall to check.

A possible explanation is that they're all a bunch of communists who want people working part time and reliant on the state for top ups.

There is no doubt that the WEF are pushing a Chinese communist style future for us all (fascist really) which means CBDCs and social credit scores are next up. Take a look at the WEF's list of graduates (plants / puppets / infiltrators) to how insidious it all is...

Some bits from the page the above tweet links to...

"If you decide that you cannot trust them, or that they do not share your interests and values, then it is time to act to prevent them from taking control of all aspects of your life.  Otherwise, the WEF seeks to take away everything you own, and to completely control all aspects of your life.  One of the key predictions of their “Global Future Councils” is that by 2030, you (or your children) will own nothing, and will be happy.  Here is a link to other aspects of their vision of tomorrow.

Whatever your answer, you deserve to know who these people are that wish to control the world, your daily life, what information you can access, what you are allowed to think, and what you are allowed to own.  You deserve to know who they represent, and what are their names.  The purpose of this essay and the accompanying spreadsheet is to provide you with information and transparency about who these people are, where they come from, what their ethics and policy positions are, where they work, what sectors do they work in, and when they were trained to do the bidding of the WEF (there are often close bonds between members of the same class year). 

These people have been trained to believe in and support a globalist form of unelected government, in which international business is at the center of the management and decision-making process.  They have been trained to advance the interests of a global transnational government which represents a public-private partnership in which the business interests of the WEF members take precedence over the constitution of the United States.  The WEF believes that the concept of independent nation states is obsolete and must be replaced with a global government which controls all.  They are fundamentally anti-democratic, and their views are both fundamentally corporatist and globalist, which is another way of saying that they are for totalitarian Fascism – the fusion of the interests of business with the power of the state- on a global scale. These people do not represent the interests of the nation-state in which they reside, work, and may hold political office, but rather their allegiance appears to be to the WEF vision of a dominant world government which has dominion over nations and their constitutions.  In my opinion, in the case of those trainees and WEF members who are in politics, and particularly those who have been used to “penetrate the global cabinets of countries”, these persons should be forced to register as foreign agents within their host countries."

[Alifelessbinary]

On 23/05/2022 at 05:18, WICAO said:

I have a little over £30k in SGRO.  Bought at £4.29 in 2015 and currently at £11.17.  Will be interesting to watch what happens to those.

Have some 'ill and elderly' also in the form of PHP to hopefully provide some balance.

I still hold Segro in my portfolio and think they are a good long term hold, as they have a good track record in the property logistics sector. 

Over the last five years considerable money has poured into industrial property, as funds sought secure returns after the retail sector destabilised. This has meant that yields have tightened considerably. Back in 2011 and you buy a multi-let industrial estate for a 9% yield, the same site now sells for sub 4% which is increase in value. 

For example if you ignore rental rental growth this is the impact on capital value of a £100k rent;

£100k x 9% (1/9 =  11.11 year purchase) = £1.11m

£100k x 4% (25 yp) = £2.5m

Industrial properties are still a good long term income stream, but the days of easy rapid capital growth have passed. Recent drops in online shopping (Ocado, Amazon) has taken some heat out of the tenders

[Plan-b]

Good reporting from Sky and some part truths at the end from former BOE Governor Mervyn King that it was a 'mistaken diagnosis' that all central banks made in printing too much in response to the plandemic that has caused this inflation.

I still think the massive money drop was intentional but that's just my opinion.

 

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Plan-b said:

I still think the massive money drop was intentional but that's just my opinion.

If they all did it - it was intentional.

[Chewing Grass]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's why windfall taxes are stupid and also why (working) people against them. If they can steal from BP and Shell, they can steal from a burger van.

They have already stolen from me which is why I manage my hours now.

[JohnnyB]

There's real trouble ahead for this phony Tory government now - if they give 10% benefit increase its going to seriously piss off a lot of workers.

I know they sometimes don't garner much sympathy, but people I know in the public sector/NHS/education are extremely conscious that they've had minimal increases for years. Sadly for many private sector companies the only ideas they have to increase profits or productivity is by sacking staff and modern HR is a con to suppress wages, so other than a few special sectors or roles I don't see much likelihood of private sector wages spiralling up.

These ideas for direct subsidies to the "poor" are scraping the barrel and you can see the anger in that article. Of course it gives the suppliers free reign to whack up prices and avoids natural demand reduction from high prices (i.e. wearing a jumper in winter).

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

I just found out that a guy I used to go to School with committed suicide after getting himself into debt buying Bitcoin.

[WICAO]

59 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

I still hold Segro in my portfolio and think they are a good long term hold, as they have a good track record in the property logistics sector. 

Over the last five years considerable money has poured into industrial property, as funds sought secure returns after the retail sector destabilised. This has meant that yields have tightened considerably. Back in 2011 and you buy a multi-let industrial estate for a 9% yield, the same site now sells for sub 4% which is increase in value. 

For example if you ignore rental rental growth this is the impact on capital value of a £100k rent;

£100k x 9% (1/9 =  11.11 year purchase) = £1.11m

£100k x 4% (25 yp) = £2.5m

Industrial properties are still a good long term income stream, but the days of easy rapid capital growth have passed. Recent drops in online shopping (Ocado, Amazon) has taken some heat out of the tenders

No plans to sell SGRO (or PHP).  As a long term buy, hold and rebalance person what's done is done.

Interestingly, what doesn't show up in the headline values is that £10,000 initial investment has already given me back £5,186 in dividends (and a rights issue).  So more than half of my initial investment has already been returned.