Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Cosmic]

1 hour ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

You wouldn't believe the numbers of bad payers and none payers in the horsey world. Constantly moving from stables, to stables for not paying the rent. Can't pay for a few bales of haylage or a couple of bales of wood shavings etc.

Confiscate a few nags, post the pictures of you enjoying a good horse burger on social... word would soon get around to settle the depts

[Errol]

 

[M S E Refugee]

32 minutes ago, Errol said:

 

The higher prices are due to Biden's over the top response to Covid and Vladimir Putin.

[Pip321]

52 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The higher prices are due to Biden's over the top response to Covid and Vladimir Putin.

Yep.

Feels to me that Bidens ‘over the top response’ was not a response to Putin. It was the opportunity to be taken by the US to create a new East/West divide, and try save the dollar albeit in a smaller West World…..rather than something to solve Putin problem.

The US care as much about Ukrainians as much as they care about their own citizens….ie not at all.

Corruption from the leaders across the whole world, from every political persuasion for their own personal gain.

Never mind….at least Covid if finished, oh wait….is that a monkey I see walking up the street 🤦🏻‍♂️

[HousePriceMania]

On 28/05/2022 at 21:49, DurhamBorn said:

Real falls,then inflated away.I think BTL with leverage over 60% is in serious trouble here.Of course some will depend on if they increase local housing allowance or not with inflation,they might not.I think without bennies and immigration houses would be cut in half or more.

When you say real falls, do you mean real real term falls or real nominal term falls? 

🤔Confused, i am. 

Starting to see some 2019 priced houses appear round us. 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes, a thief with a metal detector always worried me, however dispersed and/or well hidden my PM's were (or I thought they were!). I suppose  a combination of a good home security system to quickly alert the police/private security service, plus strategically hiding say hundreds of lead and iron bars under the house floorboards would slow the thief down? Or could an expert detectorist ignore the base metals and just home in on the gold/silver?

Ball bearings.In my younger days i was a night hawk.We used to metal detect on known sites etc after dark.At first it was easy pickings,but they started to scatter loads of ball bearings to stop us.You could try to discriminate them out,but just a fuzzy mess.We turned to known farmers fields instead.The Middleham Jewel wasnt found where they said they found it for instance.My mate found one of the biggest Roman coin hordes ever found,two massive pots full.He didnt report them of course,he fenced them to the US through contacts.He bought some farm land with some of the money and built some fishing lakes.He gave me some of the coins,iv still got them.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

When you say real falls, do you mean real real term falls or real nominal term falls? 

🤔Confused, i am. 

Starting to see some 2019 priced houses appear round us. 

Inflation+more falls so more than inflation.I could roadmap it based on likely rates etc ,i might do it this week out of interest to see how close i get.I cant roadmap crazy government interventions though in the short term.

[Democorruptcy]

23 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Ling is a British surname...

I remember a footballer Martin Ling

[Barnsey]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Inflation+more falls so more than inflation.I could roadmap it based on likely rates etc ,i might do it this week out of interest to see how close i get.I cant roadmap crazy government interventions though in the short term.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/may/30/average-uk-house-price-tops-250000-but-market-starting-to-slow

The housing market is “still much busier than pre-pandemic norms”, but signs are emerging that a slowdown is coming, Zoopla said.

It said that since the second half of April, around one in 20 properties have had price reductions of 5% or more – an increase from one in 22 properties during the previous month.

Sellers were also waiting slightly longer typically to achieve a sale. Outside London, the average time between a three-bedroom house being listed for sale and a sale agreed rose from 16 days in March to 18 days in April. In London, this average figure increased from 17 days in March to 21 days in April.

Key snippet there, early days but London market slowing much faster.

#affordability 

cc @Pip321

[Chewing Grass]

If they are saying it's starting to slow it already has.

[Barnsey]

With land at a premium and house prices spiralling, not to mention the cost of living crisis, many people are trying to find ways to buy their first home that won't break the bank.

To that end, Pocket Living offers affordable homes to first-time buyers at prices at least 20 per cent below market value, but there's a catch.

Their recent 'Pocket Homes' build in Croydon has individual flats that measure 38sqm with a width of just 3.5metres - barely any bigger than a Tube train.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/household-bills/i-tried-new-pocket-home-27094393

I wonder if the buyers of these in East Croydon will come to regret their life choices...

Starting from £260k including the 20% off for local first time buyers 

[Barnsey]

19 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

If they are saying it's starting to slow it already has.

Don't worry this'll sort it...

Graduates from the world’s top universities, including Harvard and Yale, will be eligible for visas to work in Britain under a new post-Brexit immigration drive to “put ability and talent first”.

On Monday, the Government will launch its “high potential individual” route to attract the “brightest and best” graduates from the world’s most prestigious overseas universities to come and work in the UK at the beginning of their careers.

Successful applicants with a bachelor’s or master’s degree, regardless of which country they were born in, will get a two-year work visa and will be permitted to bring their families. Those who hold PhDs can apply to stay for three years. The graduates can then switch to other long-term employment visas.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/30/uk-opens-door-worlds-top-graduates-post-brexit-immigration-push/

[RJT1979]

26 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

If they are saying it's starting to slow it already has.

I've gone from considering to definitely not buying-moving and I'm not that badly effected. Nothing to lose waiting a while. Almost certain prices are going down minimum 20pc in next 2 years. Will take time. Those who bought recently can cancel holidays and chop in pcps for older cars (seen 2 examples of this locally 2 50k cars swapped for 2 5k cars on new build estate). But should see change in prices offered by new buyers of new builds quickly.

[Hardhat]

5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Don't worry this'll sort it...

Graduates from the world’s top universities, including Harvard and Yale, will be eligible for visas to work in Britain under a new post-Brexit immigration drive to “put ability and talent first”.

On Monday, the Government will launch its “high potential individual” route to attract the “brightest and best” graduates from the world’s most prestigious overseas universities to come and work in the UK at the beginning of their careers.

Successful applicants with a bachelor’s or master’s degree, regardless of which country they were born in, will get a two-year work visa and will be permitted to bring their families. Those who hold PhDs can apply to stay for three years. The graduates can then switch to other long-term employment visas.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/30/uk-opens-door-worlds-top-graduates-post-brexit-immigration-push/

We've had this for a while already, it's called a Global Talent visa, an Aussie mate got one a few years back. I don't see how this is too different except it relies on a University qualification.

[RJT1979]

10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Don't worry this'll sort it...

Graduates from the world’s top universities, including Harvard and Yale, will be eligible for visas to work in Britain under a new post-Brexit immigration drive to “put ability and talent first”.

On Monday, the Government will launch its “high potential individual” route to attract the “brightest and best” graduates from the world’s most prestigious overseas universities to come and work in the UK at the beginning of their careers.

Successful applicants with a bachelor’s or master’s degree, regardless of which country they were born in, will get a two-year work visa and will be permitted to bring their families. Those who hold PhDs can apply to stay for three years. The graduates can then switch to other long-term employment visas.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/30/uk-opens-door-worlds-top-graduates-post-brexit-immigration-push/

Wtf. This will be nail in coffin. Fine if harvard but not Mogadishu poly.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

50 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

With land at a premium and house prices spiralling, not to mention the cost of living crisis, many people are trying to find ways to buy their first home that won't break the bank.

To that end, Pocket Living offers affordable homes to first-time buyers at prices at least 20 per cent below market value, but there's a catch.

Their recent 'Pocket Homes' build in Croydon has individual flats that measure 38sqm with a width of just 3.5metres - barely any bigger than a Tube train.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/household-bills/i-tried-new-pocket-home-27094393

I wonder if the buyers of these in East Croydon will come to regret their life choices...

Starting from £260k including the 20% off for local first time buyers 

With community spirit at the forefront, chatting to your neighbours and fostering harmony, Pocket wants residents to be able to interact and get on with each other.

In Croydon? They will want stab vests before interacting with the neighbours.

[Animal Spirits]

29 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

With land at a premium and house prices spiralling, not to mention the cost of living crisis, many people are trying to find ways to buy their first home that won't break the bank.

To that end, Pocket Living offers affordable homes to first-time buyers at prices at least 20 per cent below market value, but there's a catch.

Their recent 'Pocket Homes' build in Croydon has individual flats that measure 38sqm with a width of just 3.5metres - barely any bigger than a Tube train.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/household-bills/i-tried-new-pocket-home-27094393

I wonder if the buyers of these in East Croydon will come to regret their life choices...

Starting from £260k including the 20% off for local first time buyers 

What happens when I want to sell my Pocket home?

You can only sell to people who meet the eligibility criteria applicable to the development (as you did when you bought your Pocket home): this will usually mean that they have to live or work in the borough and they cannot own any other property. Pocket will be able to guide you through the process when the time comes. You will not be able to sell until you have owned the property for at least one year.

 

How long will this restriction last, sub letting is also restricted but that depends on how effectively it's enforced...

 

https://www.pocketliving.com/buying/faqs

[Boon]

I think they have a few developments across London. Personally I think the 'requirements' to buy are phoney, I doubt they will turn away people with money at end of the day.

Don't really have a problem with small places if they are commensuratively priced, but the snide thing is that they quote the discount off market value off historic peaks, so it isn't really a discount at all.

Anyone buying one of those for £260k I think might be in loss straight away, as there are 1-bed ex new builds going for less than that.

[RJT1979]

42 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

What happens when I want to sell my Pocket home?

You go bankrupt and sell your body to the lowest bidder.

 

https://www.pocketliving.com/buying/faqs

 

[Pip321]

36 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

What happens when I want to sell my Pocket home?

You can only sell to people who meet the eligibility criteria applicable to the development (as you did when you bought your Pocket home): this will usually mean that they have to live or work in the borough and they cannot own any other property. Pocket will be able to guide you through the process when the time comes. You will not be able to sell until you have owned the property for at least one year.

 

How long will this restriction last, sub letting is also restricted but that depends on how effectively it's enforced...

 

https://www.pocketliving.com/buying/faqs

If schemes like this look to be bending over backwards to make something affordable….then it means housing in the area is not affordable. Walk away. Don’t ever buy something that isn’t truly suitable. 

Shared ownership, BTL loans etc and these type of affordable schemes (eg buy a pocket) are awful. 

Shared ownership is a real bug bear of mine. Always looked at from the tenants viewpoint…let’s look from the landlords. Then you see what a scam it is. Ignoring debt etc a simple view is:

You have £200k, you buy a house and get £800 pcm in rent and maybe £200 pcm repair and maintainance cost, so £600 pcm profit.

Instead you buy two houses with tenants on shared ownership.  So investment is £100k x 2 (still £200k) and the rent collected is £400 pcm x 2 (still £800) and the maintenance is nil because the tenant sorts that. So now the profit is £800 pcm. Lovely jubbly.

This ignores the fact the rent is normally more on a pro rata basis…

Never mind…just build more boxes and pretend that solves everything. 

[Noallegiance]

https://uk.investing.com/news/economy/uks-cheapest-groceries-rising-at-similar-pace-to-average--ons-2658841

Well, yeah. It's food. It has the same input costs as, ya know, food.

I'm thankful that we have these experts around to highlight this stuff. 

[RJT1979]

17 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

https://uk.investing.com/news/economy/uks-cheapest-groceries-rising-at-similar-pace-to-average--ons-2658841

Well, yeah. It's food. It has the same input costs as, ya know, food.

I'm thankful that we have these experts around to highlight this stuff. 

Potato's down 14pc. No chance

[Democorruptcy]

It will probably turn out later that the bank staff are funding stuff that will give them a consultancy later!

Quote

 

The UK’s new infrastructure bank has been heavily criticised for channelling millions of pounds of taxpayer money into third party investment funds rather than projects that support “levelling up” and tackling climate change.

Based in Leeds, the UK Infrastructure Bank was set up last June with £12bn in initial funding to draw private sector finance into infrastructure projects that support the transition to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and boost regional and local economic growth.

It has not yet published a full strategy but has invested in six projects. This includes £50mn as co-lender to the broadband provider Fibrus, which is delivering high-capacity internet in Northern Ireland, and a £107mn loan to the Tees Valley Combined Authority for its South Bank quay development.

However, it is also investing in third party funds, including a £100mn contribution to a new infrastructure fund managed by Octopus Investments, called the “Octopus Sustainable Infrastructure Fund”. It also announced a deal in December to invest up to £250mn in NextEnergy Capital’s £500mn solar fund.

Lord Aamer Sarfraz, the prime minister’s trade envoy to Singapore and a former Conservative party treasurer, said he was sure the bank could play a “valuable role”. But he added: “We need UKIB to do the difficult direct deals, not outsource their responsibilities to third party fund managers as once you invest in a fund you have very little influence over it.

“The point of the bank is to address a market gap in infrastructure investing and it’s not at all clear that it is doing that,” he added.

The comments follow the second reading in the House of Lords last week of a bill that will ensure the bank’s “long-term purpose as an enduring institution”. It is intended to guarantee that the bank is not sold off as happened with another government initiative, the Green Investment Bank, which was sold to the Australian infrastructure investor Macquarie in 2017.

Steve Coulter, head of industrial strategy at the Tony Blair Institute, said the bank was a “big bet by government that they throw a bit of public money at the private sector and it will bring in investment when in all likelihood they risk competing with existing investors, which are already willing to put capital into projects”.

At least two groups of potential investors are understood to have expressed their concerns over the bank’s decisions so far to John Flint, the former HSBC boss who is the institution’s chief executive.

One institutional investor described the decisions as “a bit of joke”. “It’s unclear why they would get a third party manager to raise funds to invest in these projects,” she said. “There is plenty of capital to be deployed out there — the Saudis and Australians are queueing to get into the UK as it’s still a good place to invest.”

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Fdc489f21-a2d4-4188-8766-94c55d3e4c4f

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

https://uk.investing.com/news/economy/uks-cheapest-groceries-rising-at-similar-pace-to-average--ons-2658841

Well, yeah. It's food. It has the same input costs as, ya know, food.

I'm thankful that we have these experts around to highlight this stuff. 

Lack of cooking skills is the main problem.I made a homemade pie yesterday ,4 fresh veg roasted in olive oil,cost £2.25 for two people (pie does 2 days).I spent yesterday boarding out my loft on one side that wasnt.Storage.Tesco trying to tempt me back sent me £8 off a £40 spend for three weeks,they have the big washing powders on for £8 so five of them and a bit veg.Il get 5 each week with the other two vouchers and that will 4 years washing powder with what i have.My rice stash is full now,Home Bargains had some wholegrain basmati for £1.29,its superb quality,same as the £4.50 Tilda wholegrain.2.5 years supply.I need more dried goods,and only 1.5 years bog roll etc so far.I spent £500 over the weekend on meds,vits,fin,viagra  etc etc,3 years supply of everything.

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lack of cooking skills is the main problem.I made a homemade pie yesterday ,4 fresh veg roasted in olive oil,cost £2.25 for two people (pie does 2 days).I spent yesterday boarding out my loft on one side that wasnt.Storage.Tesco trying to tempt me back sent me £8 off a £40 spend for three weeks,they have the big washing powders on for £8 so five of them and a bit veg.Il get 5 each week with the other two vouchers and that will 4 years washing powder with what i have.My rice stash is full now,Home Bargains had some wholegrain basmati for £1.29,its superb quality,same as the £4.50 Tilda wholegrain.2.5 years supply.I need more dried goods,and only 1.5 years bog roll etc so far.I spent £500 over the weekend on meds,vits,fin,viagra  etc etc,3 years supply of everything.

I still think we could do something with Imputed Labour. People should book how much in labour payments they have reduced GDP by, so we can add it back on. It's only similar to imputed rent that's never paid. 

You aren't knocking off the opportunity cost of that £500. The stuff you have bought might go up a few pounds but you are missing the dividends and capital gain you could have got investing it.