Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Noallegiance]

10 hours ago, Starsend said:

 

I always remember when my kids were at school, many years ago. I was astounded by how many of their friends parents had split up with the woman sat in the house on her arse receiving money from the Government and the ex (I'd guess about 75% - affluent area as well).

 

Sometimes when I'm on the school run I marvel at the ability of men to still achieve impregnation after THAT many beers.

I mean. Jesus. Have at least SOME standards guys.

 

Edit to add yes of course there are likely a share of gorm dudes. But I'm not gay so I'm not sizing up their creds.

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Don’t tell me you’ve only just come to this conclusion?  We haven’t even factored in the vaccine long term effects yet…. 

Where are we on this thread about the government actions not making any rational sense yet? 
 

I’ll meet you all on the other side. 

I'm one of the most positive people on this site! When people do the doom and gloom threads, I always suggest everything will be OK and our best days are ahead of us!

[tank]

13 hours ago, Starsend said:

Most women at 50+ are ugly fat fuckers with a bad attitude - no bloke in his right mind is going to go there.

I always remember when my kids were at school, many years ago. I was astounded by how many of their friends parents had split up with the woman sat in the house on her arse receiving money from the Government and the ex (I'd guess about 75% - affluent area as well). It was the woman's decision to boot the ex out in almost all cases, father's generally don't want to leave their children.

Now they're going to have to pay for their laziness and bad decisions, well hopefully, if Rishi doesn't keep giving them money.

 

He'll keep giving them money because they'll keep spending it.

It really is that simple. It's unfair on those who try to do the 'right thing' by their kids, but the UK is a failed state that has gone so far down the 'growth at all costs', neoliberal rabbit hole that there is no coming back.

The UK doesn't have much of an economy beyond that these days. It is a rentier economic zone about to have its population pumped to 80 million by 2030. So much of its economy is now propped up by a perverse welfare state that encourages and rewards female irresponsibility at every turn - I.e. handing huge amounts of printed cash over to lazy, impulsive women to recirculate back up the chain. It is the polar opposite of the United States in so many ways. 

[wherebee]

44 minutes ago, tank said:

He'll keep giving them money because they'll keep spending it.

It really is that simple. It's unfair on those who try to do the 'right thing' by their kids, but the UK is a failed state that has gone so far down the 'growth at all costs', neoliberal rabbit hole that there is no coming back.

The UK doesn't have much of an economy beyond that these days. It is a rentier economic zone about to have its population pumped to 80 million by 2030. So much of its economy is now propped up by a perverse welfare state that encourages and rewards female irresponsibility at every turn - I.e. handing huge amounts of printed cash over to lazy, impulsive women to recirculate back up the chain. It is the polar opposite of the United States in so many ways. 

all of the above is true except your pop number.  I firmly believe the UK hit 80 million after 2011; the official figures are rubbish based on consumption, sewage, water, and other indicators.  Think of it this way: Boris has just admitted to 1million NET immigration last year.  Is that going to be lower, or higher, than the actual number?  You know it will be lower.  So...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/city-eye-facts-on-a-plate-our-population-is-at-least-77-million-5328454.html

[tank]

2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

all of the above is true except your pop number.  I firmly believe the UK hit 80 million after 2011; the official figures are rubbish based on consumption, sewage, water, and other indicators.  Think of it this way: Boris has just admitted to 1million NET immigration last year.  Is that going to be lower, or higher, than the actual number?  You know it will be lower.  So...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/city-eye-facts-on-a-plate-our-population-is-at-least-77-million-5328454.html

I've got no doubt there are 10m+ undocumented illegals in the UK.

I'm talking about official population growth because this is tied in with GDP. 

Once an immigrant is legally on board, access to welfare then becomes the key economic stimulator. An EUer could claim from day one and this officially attracted several million from 2004-20. These people will need replacing with huge numbers from the third world if the UK economy is to grow at all over the next decade. Access to welfare and free healthcare is a huge draw. 

[jamtomorrow]

Banks in China disavowing balances ... it's all getting rather "unravelly".

Luckily "it could never happen here" etc

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/Several-Chinese-local-banks-freeze-deposits-triggering-protests

Several Chinese local banks freeze deposits, triggering protests

$1.5bn from 1m customers locked after lenders operated outside their region

...

The bank told customers on April 18 that it would halt online banking and the smartphone app to conduct system updates.

"When I called them on April 19 to ask about withdrawing my money, they said they had no deposits in my name," the man said.

[BurntBread]

11 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Agree on the vac pack, Ive decaf (yes really) in vac pack.

Are you sure about the valve and oxygen, surely the bag fills with the outgas to pressure and wont let air in. Same with brewing beer, as it ferments the co2 is heavier than air so gradually pushes all the air up and out?

I agree that's what's meant to happen, and to a large extent it does: the gas from the coffee beans flushes out almost all the oxygen. However, even the best pack-valves then allow oxygen to diffuse back the "wrong" way, albeit slowly. As I understand it, the principle on which they all operate is that there is some silicone oil in the valve, and when there is a pressure difference pushing gas out, it bubbles through the oil. When that stops, there is no flow of gas the other way, but oxygen has a (tiny) solubility in the oil, so it can seep back by dissolution, diffusion through the liquid and re-evaporation. I've had to measure this in the past.

At the risk of being very nerdy, the point about CO2 being heavier than air is interesting and not quite as people imagine. It's absolutely right that the two gases are of different density, and you can pour CO2 out of a container, and it will flow under the air as it's a denser fluid. However, the interface between the two blurs through diffusion, and once the two gases have mixed and diffused together they absolutely do not de-mix under gravity. To what extent they behave like two immiscible fluids therefore depends on the size of the system (and the time) you are dealing with. After a couple of hours, I would guess the head-space above your beer would not be a layer of CO2 and a layer of air on top, but a fairly well-mixed composition, purely by diffusion. That means the oxygen concentration falls exponentially with time as more CO2 is produced, rather than linearly to zero ... but it's not really an important distinction.

Sorry about that ... why the hell am I writing this nonsense on a Saturday morning?

[A_P]

11 hours ago, King Penda said:

You spread your stash around but on a serious note some dvds are going up in value I bought a load the other week it worked out at 11p per film . This one was with them for I think it fetches 15 ish quid on eBay alone .I spend 20 quid on 3 bin liners full .just checked one at 12 the rest a lot more

seems to sell for for between £15 and £28 (inc postage). like with most stuff timing is everything. I picked up a Barnes & Noble Leather bound limited edition sealed book for $20. auction listings at the time were fro over $100. I'm seeing the case with a lot of collectibles at the moment (not all), that listing prices mean fuck all. offer someone anything between 30-60p on the £ and you will probably get a deal done.

I last bought a sovereign in 2020 and today I can buy them for less. too many downsides with the physical for me. the one upside, I could collect 1.5 points and hit spend targets quicker. still not enough incentive for now at least

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Banks in China disavowing balances ... it's all getting rather "unravelly".

Luckily "it could never happen here" etc

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/Several-Chinese-local-banks-freeze-deposits-triggering-protests

Several Chinese local banks freeze deposits, triggering protests

$1.5bn from 1m customers locked after lenders operated outside their region

...

The bank told customers on April 18 that it would halt online banking and the smartphone app to conduct system updates.

"When I called them on April 19 to ask about withdrawing my money, they said they had no deposits in my name," the man said.

"no ticky, no laundry"

[Lightly Toasted]

2 hours ago, BurntBread said:

I agree that's what's meant to happen, and to a large extent it does: the gas from the coffee beans flushes out almost all the oxygen. However, even the best pack-valves then allow oxygen to diffuse back the "wrong" way, albeit slowly. As I understand it, the principle on which they all operate is that there is some silicone oil in the valve, and when there is a pressure difference pushing gas out, it bubbles through the oil. When that stops, there is no flow of gas the other way, but oxygen has a (tiny) solubility in the oil, so it can seep back by dissolution, diffusion through the liquid and re-evaporation. I've had to measure this in the past.

At the risk of being very nerdy, the point about CO2 being heavier than air is interesting and not quite as people imagine. It's absolutely right that the two gases are of different density, and you can pour CO2 out of a container, and it will flow under the air as it's a denser fluid. However, the interface between the two blurs through diffusion, and once the two gases have mixed and diffused together they absolutely do not de-mix under gravity. To what extent they behave like two immiscible fluids therefore depends on the size of the system (and the time) you are dealing with. After a couple of hours, I would guess the head-space above your beer would not be a layer of CO2 and a layer of air on top, but a fairly well-mixed composition, purely by diffusion. That means the oxygen concentration falls exponentially with time as more CO2 is produced, rather than linearly to zero ... but it's not really an important distinction.

Sorry about that ... why the hell am I writing this nonsense on a Saturday morning?

For the last few years my stash has included several kg of roasted beans in valved bags -- I just assumed it was so the customer could sample the fragrance of the coffee 

I've never noticed the bags swelling up so I don't believe the valves can have been doing anything. The quality has been fine, probably stored bags for at least a year before using. Still, I wasn't aware of the gas issue at all so I've learned something...

https://fellowproducts.com/blogs/learn/understanding-degassing-is-fresh-best

... and now I'll seal my valved bags inside ziploc bags.

I've also seen a more extreme approach to long-term food storage: include some wire wool sprinkled with salt, to take up oxygen as the wire wool corrodes.

[CannonFodder]

 

Trust our leaders

 

 

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Trust our leaders

 

 

She has got to be trolling.

[King Penda]

15 hours ago, Castlevania said:

A. You need to look at sold not asking prices

B. It’ll cost you £4+ to post

Edit: CEX will give you £9 in store credit for it (would be my option if I didn’t want it - put it towards some new films).

Well take v for vendetta it’s 8 fucking quid to watch on either prime or sky 8 fucking quid.they are doing this stunt with more and more films

[King Penda]

17 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Trust our leaders

 

 

It’s comical isn’t it the world I’m developing an attitude to life like the comedian from watchmen he realised it’s all a joke

[DurhamBorn]

27 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Well take v for vendetta it’s 8 fucking quid to watch on either prime or sky 8 fucking quid.they are doing this stunt with more and more films

Free here,

https://123moviesfree.so/film/v-for-vendetta-xcv/watching.html?ep=1

Iv downloaded almost every film and box set ever made onto hard drives.

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Free here,

https://123moviesfree.so/film/v-for-vendetta-xcv/watching.html?ep=1

Iv downloaded almost every film and box set ever made onto hard drives.

I got the dvd for 50p.but it’s obvious what they are doing

[wherebee]

47 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Trust our leaders

 

 

how can I get that clip without the tweet?  I need it for something.

[Errol]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Free here,

https://123moviesfree.so/film/v-for-vendetta-xcv/watching.html?ep=1

Iv downloaded almost every film and box set ever made onto hard drives.

I have all the films etc I want on Blu ray. Re-watch a lot.

[King Penda]

4 minutes ago, Errol said:

I have all the films etc I want on Blu ray. Re-watch a lot.

I have a lot I will never watch I will give a lot away or loft them

[Barnsey]

Cex or music magpie are my go to

[Boglet]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

how can I get that clip without the tweet?  I need it for something.

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1530420949190774785/pu/vid/1280x704/HlOCzSiqdMX71Ez2.mp4?tag=12

[ILikeCake]

On 27/05/2022 at 07:54, invalid said:

 

For those of us who work to pay for all this it does rather feel like they are trolling us. Ok, we all get the £400 but for workers its going to be a close to zero sum game as we will have to pay for it one way or another.

These people are just never happy and always want more.

Some great stereotypes in the examples below from todays online DM.

57 year old woman claiming sick for depression and anxiety (not to belittle that as its a real difficulty for many). Article says she is retired - no mention of if she gets a pension. Assume if she does it not much as she gets UC.

Fat dad for a change in the next one. They essentially run a nail bar with hairdressing and massages with fancy stones. I'm afraid they are going to get hit hard over the next couple of years, especially in a town like Wisbech.

 

Then there are some others which sound like hobby jobs - a magician, a lifestyle expert, a coffee expert (really?), a personal trainer. A couple seemed to have real jobs.

 

Carole Anne Wilson, 57, who lives in Wrexham, Wales, is retired with a series of illnesses and lives alone on Universal Credit She said: 'There's just not enough being done ... there's nowhere for me to turn 'In January (2022) after all my bills I had something like £200 a month left to get food and fuel or whatever,' she said.

'Now I've got £12.36 left and I don't get my money until June 18.

'My anxiety has gone through the roof. I just can't cope with the anxiety and the depression, it just gets worse and worse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not one of then with what I would call a proper job.

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/28/might-back-1970s-have-learned-none-lessons/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

Superb comment in the Telegraph.Some are now seeing the macro we told the world about,well us basement dwellers at least and the reasons behind it.Loved the fact they pick up on that the economy isnt producing enough for the demands on it.I just hope they figured it out for themselves and didnt read it here.I do think someone at The Telegraph reads this thread as they seem to pick up on our work here a lot.

Its very fuzzy,but in lots of ways it will be worse than the 70s now for anyone not on the state tit.I advised some of my partners workmates to retire this year,the ones over 55.They got 1.7% pay increase,but pensions in payment are index linked,far better to go now if you have decent years in,still graft have 1.7%,pack in get 9%.People who left also get CPI increases on the deferred pension,so getting four times+ the pension increase than people still working there.

The government have unleashed the destruction of work.I suspect masses will retire early,and youngsters wont be coming forward to work more hours anytime soon.

 

[JohnnyB]

Setting a really bad precedent to shovel printed deficit money to certain groups. Government picking winners and losers, just as they raise taxes only paid for by workers.

Wish someone in the media would dare to suggest that housing & rents have been rising and rising, so if people need to spend more on food and energy then housing costs need to fall? And they would have done without this perverse bribe. Current paradigm seems to be that no pain can ever be taken.

I'm going to predict that inflation in 12 months time will be higher than it is today, despite the "expert predictions".

 

[Calcutta]

Are the yanks planning any more stimmy checks? 

I'm confusing myself trying to work out what happens to our economy if we go all out for inflation whilst the US is tightening, does the pound collapse? 

Are we about to see a u-turn in the fed?