Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[geordie_lurch]

For those still not convinced CBDCs are where TPTB are going to take us...

Mastercard CEO: SWIFT Payment System May Be Replaced By CBDCs In Five Years via Zerohedge here

"Miebach, participating in a panel on Central Bank Digital Currencies at the WEF and hosted by the Global Blockchain Business Council, was one of the few participants that was willing to suggest that the SWIFT system, long dominated by western interests, might be made obsolete along with the proliferation of digital currencies among central banks.

Initially dismissed as “conspiracy theory” only a few years ago by the media, whispers of CBDCs have suddenly gone mainstream and blockchain technologies took center stage at Davos in 2022. The Federal Reserve has even started active public discussions assessing the case for retail digital currency products.

Few at Davos were willing to admit to the outcome that Mastercard's CEO suggested, arguing that SWIFT would continue its prevalence for decades. Yet, almost every major central bank in the world is now pursuing a digital currency program, and the IMF has been exceedingly vocal about the need for a global digital currency system in the near future to provide “stability” in the face of national inflationary crisis events."

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Having started this controversy stating that gold presented storage difficulties I have watched the debate with interest. While I recognise the sense of concealing items of value around your home to prevent easy detection in the event of robbery, it also occurs to me that many of the suggestions resemble the plot of Treasure Island.

Have you guys considered what would happen in the event of a serious house fire or if you popped your clogs without leaving a treasure map behind or passing on the info to a loved one?  I have suffered theft at the hands of family members I thought incapable of such a thing. If it exists in physical form an asset represents a risk of theft especially if it is small and portable. You can mitigate risks by employing security measures but it can never be entirely eliminated. Hence my original suggestion that some people would continue to see property as a viable alternative to alternative investments even following a market correction. 

If you have something worth nicking there will be people prepared to nick it!

My stash is not large but it’s hidden in 4 locations the kids will trash the house but have fun looking for it .my mum knows about it if I have a house fire I don’t care has my insurance claim will be larger than the stash and chattels lost

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Interesting Bloomberg article this morning, apparently we're going to be Bongo Bongo land soon. No great surprise to me.

 

British Pound Risks Crisis Usually Seen in Emerging Markets, BofA Warns

... The Bank of England continuing to hike interest rates won’t be enough to rescue the pound, strategist Kamal Sharma said in a note...

I've said it before: raising interest rates is not the magic bullet that many seem to believe.

At some point the market will look at the interest rate the UK is offering and say, "Oh yeah? How are you going to afford that [without just printing up whatever you owe me] in your current political/fiscal predicament?"

Then they will decline to support sterling. We saw it in 1992 and we will see it again.

[leonardratso]

27 minutes ago, King Penda said:

My stash is not large but it’s hidden in 4 locations the kids will trash the house but have fun looking for it .my mum knows about it if I have a house fire I don’t care has my insurance claim will be larger than the stash and chattels lost

you might find that the insurance company just gives you bought market value for your pot noodle stash (£1 a big pot) that burnt up, or sunk in the rowing boat you were on in the canal when russia missiled it, but when you get the cash and go to ebay to rebuy said pot noodles you could find them unobtainable or £2000 a pot (£4500 for chicken and mushroom) due to worldwide shortage of the delicious life saver.

ergo i suggest you get in touch with that asbestos guy on here and build yourself a fireproof box to put the precious in, of course put that in a flood proof box and seal the lot in a concrete bunker, rebar to come from china of course, so that rats can easily mosey on thru it.

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

you might find that the insurance company just gives you bought market value for your pot noodle stash (£1 a big pot) that burnt up, or sunk in the rowing boat you were on in the canal when russia missiled it, but when you get the cash and go to ebay to rebuy said pot noodles you could find them unobtainable or £2000 a pot (£4500 for chicken and mushroom) due to worldwide shortage of the delicious life saver.

Fuck

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

British Pound Risks Crisis Usually Seen in Emerging Markets, BofA Warns

That just seems like lazy "more of this" type commentary you see at tops and bottoms, in this case presumably the Dollar.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Interesting Bloomberg article this morning, apparently we're going to be Bongo Bongo land soon. No great surprise to me.

 

British Pound Risks Crisis Usually Seen in Emerging Markets, BofA Warns

Investors should hedge for an “existential” sterling crisis as the British currency faces struggles usually seen in emerging markets, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. 

The Bank of England continuing to hike interest rates won’t be enough to rescue the pound, strategist Kamal Sharma said in a note. Instead, there’s a risk the nation’s current account deficit, a deterioration of its relationship with the European Union over Northern Ireland and questions around the central bank’s credibility combine to create a “perfect storm.” 

“Whilst not wishing to over-exaggerate GBP’s predicament as some kind of ‘end-of-days’ scenario, we are concerned that the increasing politicization of UK policy undermines the GBP in ways that would appear EM-like,” Sharma wrote in a note. “We sense something is changing in the UK, with the BOE increasingly hard to decipher and less transparent; a failure to discuss and acknowledge that Brexit has been a significant headwind to the supply side; and a sense that the BOE is losing control over its mandate.”

It’s not the first time in recent years Wall Street strategists have drawn parallels between the British currency and emerging markets. The comparison was made amid the UK’s tortuous exit from the European Union, where political headlines whipsawed sterling as its behavior broke from major peers. BofA strategists have likened the pound’s behavior to an EM currency in the past.

Political Attacks

The BOE has faced political attacks this month over its response to inflation, which is at its fastest rate in four decades. Despite four interest-rate increases since December and money markets bracing for more in each of its next five decisions, the pound is the third-worst performing major currency this year. 

“At a point of increased uncertainty over domestic growth, signs of regional fragmentation and Northern Ireland-related risks, the UK will find it increasingly difficult to attract portfolio flows to finance a widening current-account deficit,” said Citigroup Inc strategist Vasileios Gkionakis, who recommends betting against the pound versus the euro.

Read: Pound Fights for Reprieve as Economy Flails

BofA’s Sharma stresses he is not saying the pound is an emerging-market currency, but rather that investors are increasingly viewing the currency as taking on developing-nation characteristics. He recommends clients hedge for the risk of “a current-account-led crisis” via wing-type structures.

“The UK current account deficit is not a new phenomenon. But what has changed has been liquidity and trading conditions around GBP and one of the most challenging macro/policy backdrops in almost a generation,” he said. “What strikes us, despite GBP being one of the most actively traded currencies in the world, is how it has regularly succumbed to liquidity black holes since 2016.”

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Trust no one.

Bloomberg knocking Sterling = It's going up against USD?

 

[King Penda]

I’m at a swimming pool type place and sweating like a pedo in a crèche it must be 78d I suspect the heating will be turned down soon or admission will rocket at least a can of cokes only 90p

[Axeman123]

47 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

...the IMF has been exceedingly vocal about the need for a global digital currency system in the near future to provide “stability” in the face of national inflationary crisis events."

So, how would that work? Seperate currencies trying to maintain an artificial peg to a single CBDC? Nightmare fuel. A single (CBDC) currency shared by nations with radically divergent fiscal and monetary policy? If you think Italy and Germany struggle to share the euro, imagine the fun and games with Argentina and Germany trying to! A single currency as a stepping stone to one world government?

[Errol]

40 minutes ago, King Penda said:

I’m at a swimming pool type place and sweating like a pedo in a crèche it must be 78d I suspect the heating will be turned down soon or admission will rocket at least a can of cokes only 90p

Looks like the set of Aliens.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Oh dear...........

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Oh dear...........

They're gonna be so "tired of winning"

[ThoughtCriminal]

Just now, Loki said:

They're gonna be so "tired of winning"

The 5 stages of grief

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Pay in Rubles

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Oh dear...........

They might be still able to have a shmoke, but the pancakes to go with it will only happen if they have an electric hob!

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

They might be still able to have a shmoke, but the pancakes to go with it will only happen if they have an electric hob!

There's no smoke without fire

[King Penda]

25 minutes ago, Errol said:

Looks like the set of Aliens.

Yes I did shout out to the kids when it was time to go ….marines we,re leaving but only I get the quote

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Lightly Toasted said:

I've said it before: raising interest rates is not the magic bullet that many seem to believe.

At some point the market will look at the interest rate the UK is offering and say, "Oh yeah? How are you going to afford that [without just printing up whatever you owe me] in your current political/fiscal predicament?"

Then they will decline to support sterling. We saw it in 1992 and we will see it again.

No, its not.

UK needs higher rates and less public sector spend.

They can start by removing access to benefit to non citizens.

Then start reforming UCs, bumping up horus to 38h/ on youngest hitting 12.

There is no one fix for the UKs current problems.

The fucktard of 2002-2008 still needs rolling back.

 

 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

A single currency as a stepping stone to one world government?

With a manageable reduced world population that does what they’re damn well told yes.

[King Penda]

9 minutes ago, spygirl said:

No, its not.

UK needs higher rates and less public sector spend.

They can start by removing access to benefit to non citizens.

Then start reforming UCs, bumping up horus to 38h/ on youngest hitting 12.

There is no one fix for the UKs current problems.

The fucktard of 2002-2008 still needs rolling back.

 

 

38 hours is still only 19 hours each  (if a couple )a week that’s not even 2 shifts each at a carehome 

[Uncle Buck Rogers]

1 hour ago, King Penda said:

Yes I did shout out to the kids when it was time to go ….marines we,re leaving but only I get the quote

A very camp "Get away from her you Bitch!" would have been interesting.

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Oh dear...........

The Poles took a similar principled stand and refused to pay directly in Rubles.  They bought it through Germany instead!

[23rdian]

6 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Having started this controversy stating that gold presented storage difficulties I have watched the debate with interest. While I recognise the sense of concealing items of value around your home to prevent easy detection in the event of robbery, it also occurs to me that many of the suggestions resemble the plot of Treasure Island.

Have you guys considered what would happen in the event of a serious house fire or if you popped your clogs without leaving a treasure map behind or passing on the info to a loved one?  I have suffered theft at the hands of family members I thought incapable of such a thing. If it exists in physical form an asset represents a risk of theft especially if it is small and portable. You can mitigate risks by employing security measures but it can never be entirely eliminated. Hence my original suggestion that some people would continue to see property as a viable alternative to alternative investments even following a market correction. 

If you have something worth nicking there will be people prepared to nick it!

You can get a Google based dead man's switch to send someone info after you are not around.

[sancho panza]

On 28/05/2022 at 20:18, Chewing Grass said:

I have a new index to watch courtesy of Horsemart.co.uk

Its like Autotrader for useless lumps of meat that are generally kept on tax-free agricultural land that could be used to feed people.

Today 28/05/22 = 5180

https://www.horsemart.co.uk/horses-for-sale.php

Thanks for that CG,keep us posted,FAscinating site.I've noticed before that a sign of stress in Leicestershire is the amount of hosues for sale with equestrian pads on them.

Horses cost a fortune to keep and I would supect it's more cost effective to get rid of the nag than the dog.

On 28/05/2022 at 21:47, Bobthebuilder said:

London peaked around 4 years ago, it has been small falls per year since. The money has gone out to the shires.

I would hazard a guess that London will be up in 12 months.

Interesting Bob,you made me look at one of my old London staples SW3.521 properties for sale.Even allowing for shocking inefficiency at Land Reg  20 transactions per month  =26 months inventroy-allowing for duplicates prob 20+ months.Lot of people heading for a narrow exit.AS you say average price(on admittefly low sample not too dissimilar to 2011

LE2 by contrast has circa 90 transactions per motnh and 393 for sale =4.36 months invetory

 

If we include SSTC,then the maths is as follows

SW3 => 521 plus 140 SSTC=661/20=33 months inventory

LE2=> 393 plus 495 SSTC=888/90=9.8 months inveotry

 

SOme intersting stats right there from a structural perspective imho.I wouldn't want to be selling in either place if I was despearte tbh

 

On 29/05/2022 at 11:59, ThoughtCriminal said:

Virtually every council that fucks up on this scale is Labour.

 

I'm not a Tory, they're as corrupt as each other, but we shouldn't ever allow our partisanship to blind us to reality.

Is it really Labour screwing up more or jsut the fact that their areas have higher demands on them and higher non payment rates.

the last two years has shown me that anyone who thinks that Blue Labour are less incompetnent than Red Labour are missing the point that they're as bumbling as each otehr.

 

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Thanks for that CG,keep us posted,FAscinating site.I've noticed before that a sign of stress in Leicestershire is the amount of hosues for sale with equestrian pads on them.

Horses cost a fortune to keep and I would supect it's more cost effective to get rid of the nag than the dog.

This will be a good one to watch as well, horseboxes and trailers, 20K for a knackered old ford one.

Currently 940 Horseboxes and 240 Trailers.

Remember you need a decent gas-guzzly motor to pull one tonne of horsemeat around.

https://www.horsemart.co.uk/horseboxes-and-trailers.php

[Chewing Grass]

@sancho panza bugger me Vauxhall Movano's are crap, turn one into a horse limo and its kerching £27K for a 8 year old one with 75K on the motor.