Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[RJT1979]

18 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I have a new index to watch courtesy of Horsemart.co.uk

Its like Autotrader for useless lumps of meat that are generally kept on tax-free agricultural land that could be used to feed people.

Today 28/05/22 = 5180

https://www.horsemart.co.uk/horses-for-sale.php

Look at prices 😆 who buys this crap

[Funn3r]

14 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Ling is a British surname...

Here's a psychedelic Ling
https://www.lingscars.com/missile-truck

[Joncrete Cungle]

20 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Look at prices 😆 who buys this crap

You wouldn't believe the numbers of bad payers and none payers in the horsey world. Constantly moving from stables, to stables for not paying the rent. Can't pay for a few bales of haylage or a couple of bales of wood shavings etc.

[RJT1979]

9 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

You wouldn't believe the numbers of bad payers and none payers in the horsey world. Constantly moving from stables, to stables for not paying the rent. Can't pay for a few bales of haylage or a couple of bales of wood shavings etc.

I could believe it. Lots of the people with horses have average jobs and are constantly broke. Owning the nags makes them feel important though.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, BurntBread said:

Just don't do this if you are Indian, or look like you have Indian ancestry, as there are specialist gangs who do burglaries using metal-detectors. It happened to someone I worked with, about 7 years ago. She had her jewellery spread out as you describe (I don't think she had a safe), and they found every bit.

Yes, a thief with a metal detector always worried me, however dispersed and/or well hidden my PM's were (or I thought they were!). I suppose  a combination of a good home security system to quickly alert the police/private security service, plus strategically hiding say hundreds of lead and iron bars under the house floorboards would slow the thief down? Or could an expert detectorist ignore the base metals and just home in on the gold/silver?

[BWW]

On 28/05/2022 at 20:50, BadAlchemy said:

I just had a look at that on Wayback Machine. Two previous examples...

May 27 2018 - 1740 results (Might equate to 'normal' activity during disinflation cycle - the good times!)

May 11 2021 - 804 results(Indicative of high demand during the Covid helicopter money and furlough phase)

So 5000 today indicates the arse has dropped out of the horsey market, as we would expect!

Edit: pricewise, 3 to 5k per nag in 2018. Very variable in 2021, anything from 3 k up to 20k. Today, between 10 to 20k.

HorsePriceCrash.co.uk ??!!

I'd guess there's a floor at about half the per kg price for beef. What does a cow cost ... 1k maybe so horses will bottom out at 500?

[Cosmic]

1 hour ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

You wouldn't believe the numbers of bad payers and none payers in the horsey world. Constantly moving from stables, to stables for not paying the rent. Can't pay for a few bales of haylage or a couple of bales of wood shavings etc.

Confiscate a few nags, post the pictures of you enjoying a good horse burger on social... word would soon get around to settle the depts

[Errol]

 

[M S E Refugee]

32 minutes ago, Errol said:

 

The higher prices are due to Biden's over the top response to Covid and Vladimir Putin.

[Pip321]

52 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The higher prices are due to Biden's over the top response to Covid and Vladimir Putin.

Yep.

Feels to me that Bidens ‘over the top response’ was not a response to Putin. It was the opportunity to be taken by the US to create a new East/West divide, and try save the dollar albeit in a smaller West World…..rather than something to solve Putin problem.

The US care as much about Ukrainians as much as they care about their own citizens….ie not at all.

Corruption from the leaders across the whole world, from every political persuasion for their own personal gain.

Never mind….at least Covid if finished, oh wait….is that a monkey I see walking up the street 🤦🏻‍♂️

[HousePriceMania]

On 28/05/2022 at 21:49, DurhamBorn said:

Real falls,then inflated away.I think BTL with leverage over 60% is in serious trouble here.Of course some will depend on if they increase local housing allowance or not with inflation,they might not.I think without bennies and immigration houses would be cut in half or more.

When you say real falls, do you mean real real term falls or real nominal term falls? 

🤔Confused, i am. 

Starting to see some 2019 priced houses appear round us. 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes, a thief with a metal detector always worried me, however dispersed and/or well hidden my PM's were (or I thought they were!). I suppose  a combination of a good home security system to quickly alert the police/private security service, plus strategically hiding say hundreds of lead and iron bars under the house floorboards would slow the thief down? Or could an expert detectorist ignore the base metals and just home in on the gold/silver?

Ball bearings.In my younger days i was a night hawk.We used to metal detect on known sites etc after dark.At first it was easy pickings,but they started to scatter loads of ball bearings to stop us.You could try to discriminate them out,but just a fuzzy mess.We turned to known farmers fields instead.The Middleham Jewel wasnt found where they said they found it for instance.My mate found one of the biggest Roman coin hordes ever found,two massive pots full.He didnt report them of course,he fenced them to the US through contacts.He bought some farm land with some of the money and built some fishing lakes.He gave me some of the coins,iv still got them.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

When you say real falls, do you mean real real term falls or real nominal term falls? 

🤔Confused, i am. 

Starting to see some 2019 priced houses appear round us. 

Inflation+more falls so more than inflation.I could roadmap it based on likely rates etc ,i might do it this week out of interest to see how close i get.I cant roadmap crazy government interventions though in the short term.

[Democorruptcy]

23 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Ling is a British surname...

I remember a footballer Martin Ling

[Barnsey]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Inflation+more falls so more than inflation.I could roadmap it based on likely rates etc ,i might do it this week out of interest to see how close i get.I cant roadmap crazy government interventions though in the short term.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/may/30/average-uk-house-price-tops-250000-but-market-starting-to-slow

The housing market is “still much busier than pre-pandemic norms”, but signs are emerging that a slowdown is coming, Zoopla said.

It said that since the second half of April, around one in 20 properties have had price reductions of 5% or more – an increase from one in 22 properties during the previous month.

Sellers were also waiting slightly longer typically to achieve a sale. Outside London, the average time between a three-bedroom house being listed for sale and a sale agreed rose from 16 days in March to 18 days in April. In London, this average figure increased from 17 days in March to 21 days in April.

Key snippet there, early days but London market slowing much faster.

#affordability 

cc @Pip321

[Chewing Grass]

If they are saying it's starting to slow it already has.

[Barnsey]

With land at a premium and house prices spiralling, not to mention the cost of living crisis, many people are trying to find ways to buy their first home that won't break the bank.

To that end, Pocket Living offers affordable homes to first-time buyers at prices at least 20 per cent below market value, but there's a catch.

Their recent 'Pocket Homes' build in Croydon has individual flats that measure 38sqm with a width of just 3.5metres - barely any bigger than a Tube train.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/household-bills/i-tried-new-pocket-home-27094393

I wonder if the buyers of these in East Croydon will come to regret their life choices...

Starting from £260k including the 20% off for local first time buyers 

[Barnsey]

19 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

If they are saying it's starting to slow it already has.

Don't worry this'll sort it...

Graduates from the world’s top universities, including Harvard and Yale, will be eligible for visas to work in Britain under a new post-Brexit immigration drive to “put ability and talent first”.

On Monday, the Government will launch its “high potential individual” route to attract the “brightest and best” graduates from the world’s most prestigious overseas universities to come and work in the UK at the beginning of their careers.

Successful applicants with a bachelor’s or master’s degree, regardless of which country they were born in, will get a two-year work visa and will be permitted to bring their families. Those who hold PhDs can apply to stay for three years. The graduates can then switch to other long-term employment visas.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/30/uk-opens-door-worlds-top-graduates-post-brexit-immigration-push/

[RJT1979]

26 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

If they are saying it's starting to slow it already has.

I've gone from considering to definitely not buying-moving and I'm not that badly effected. Nothing to lose waiting a while. Almost certain prices are going down minimum 20pc in next 2 years. Will take time. Those who bought recently can cancel holidays and chop in pcps for older cars (seen 2 examples of this locally 2 50k cars swapped for 2 5k cars on new build estate). But should see change in prices offered by new buyers of new builds quickly.

[Hardhat]

5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Don't worry this'll sort it...

Graduates from the world’s top universities, including Harvard and Yale, will be eligible for visas to work in Britain under a new post-Brexit immigration drive to “put ability and talent first”.

On Monday, the Government will launch its “high potential individual” route to attract the “brightest and best” graduates from the world’s most prestigious overseas universities to come and work in the UK at the beginning of their careers.

Successful applicants with a bachelor’s or master’s degree, regardless of which country they were born in, will get a two-year work visa and will be permitted to bring their families. Those who hold PhDs can apply to stay for three years. The graduates can then switch to other long-term employment visas.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/30/uk-opens-door-worlds-top-graduates-post-brexit-immigration-push/

We've had this for a while already, it's called a Global Talent visa, an Aussie mate got one a few years back. I don't see how this is too different except it relies on a University qualification.

[RJT1979]

10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Don't worry this'll sort it...

Graduates from the world’s top universities, including Harvard and Yale, will be eligible for visas to work in Britain under a new post-Brexit immigration drive to “put ability and talent first”.

On Monday, the Government will launch its “high potential individual” route to attract the “brightest and best” graduates from the world’s most prestigious overseas universities to come and work in the UK at the beginning of their careers.

Successful applicants with a bachelor’s or master’s degree, regardless of which country they were born in, will get a two-year work visa and will be permitted to bring their families. Those who hold PhDs can apply to stay for three years. The graduates can then switch to other long-term employment visas.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/30/uk-opens-door-worlds-top-graduates-post-brexit-immigration-push/

Wtf. This will be nail in coffin. Fine if harvard but not Mogadishu poly.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

50 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

With land at a premium and house prices spiralling, not to mention the cost of living crisis, many people are trying to find ways to buy their first home that won't break the bank.

To that end, Pocket Living offers affordable homes to first-time buyers at prices at least 20 per cent below market value, but there's a catch.

Their recent 'Pocket Homes' build in Croydon has individual flats that measure 38sqm with a width of just 3.5metres - barely any bigger than a Tube train.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/household-bills/i-tried-new-pocket-home-27094393

I wonder if the buyers of these in East Croydon will come to regret their life choices...

Starting from £260k including the 20% off for local first time buyers 

With community spirit at the forefront, chatting to your neighbours and fostering harmony, Pocket wants residents to be able to interact and get on with each other.

In Croydon? They will want stab vests before interacting with the neighbours.

[Animal Spirits]

29 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

With land at a premium and house prices spiralling, not to mention the cost of living crisis, many people are trying to find ways to buy their first home that won't break the bank.

To that end, Pocket Living offers affordable homes to first-time buyers at prices at least 20 per cent below market value, but there's a catch.

Their recent 'Pocket Homes' build in Croydon has individual flats that measure 38sqm with a width of just 3.5metres - barely any bigger than a Tube train.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/household-bills/i-tried-new-pocket-home-27094393

I wonder if the buyers of these in East Croydon will come to regret their life choices...

Starting from £260k including the 20% off for local first time buyers 

What happens when I want to sell my Pocket home?

You can only sell to people who meet the eligibility criteria applicable to the development (as you did when you bought your Pocket home): this will usually mean that they have to live or work in the borough and they cannot own any other property. Pocket will be able to guide you through the process when the time comes. You will not be able to sell until you have owned the property for at least one year.

 

How long will this restriction last, sub letting is also restricted but that depends on how effectively it's enforced...

 

https://www.pocketliving.com/buying/faqs

[Boon]

I think they have a few developments across London. Personally I think the 'requirements' to buy are phoney, I doubt they will turn away people with money at end of the day.

Don't really have a problem with small places if they are commensuratively priced, but the snide thing is that they quote the discount off market value off historic peaks, so it isn't really a discount at all.

Anyone buying one of those for £260k I think might be in loss straight away, as there are 1-bed ex new builds going for less than that.

[RJT1979]

42 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

What happens when I want to sell my Pocket home?

You go bankrupt and sell your body to the lowest bidder.

 

https://www.pocketliving.com/buying/faqs