Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Cosmic]

8 minutes ago, Jeff2500 said:

Not necessarily. A previous colleague used a Nissan Micra for towing a horsebox. Admittingly he didn't go far with it but I dread to think how much wear and tear it put on the brakes and clutch

Not to mention that its curtains if you got caught, or even worse had an accident... Most boxes will be 800kg+ on their own, without the nags, over the limit on most/all small/family cars with the nags in.

[geordie_lurch]

European leader's controlled demotion of their economies continues...

I wonder if these new actions will help or make the following worse?

As the following tweet succinctly sums up - the EU is fecked

 

[M S E Refugee]

8 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

According to The Times, Government modelling of a “reasonable” worst-case scenario predicts major gas shortages in winter if Russia cuts off more supplies to the EU.

Fantastic bit of misdirection by The Times, it ought to read "if the EU refuse Gas supplies from Russia".

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, geordie_lurch said:

European leader's controlled demotion of their economies continues...

I wonder if these new actions will help or make the following worse?

 

A few of the NPC's at work aren't as cocky as they used to be, it is okay to virtue signal if it doesn't affect you.

[geordie_lurch]

I enjoyed this 11 min video: Worst Bear Market in My lifetime - Jim Rogers predicts. Jim Rogers joins us to discuss the current market conditions, the bear market, silver & gold and his strategy for right now.

 

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Thank you DB: that's really informative! I am assuming the predictions of 6% nominal falls over 12 months, then a further 4% nominal falls the year after are for some national average of house prices? The last 20 years have seen increasing divergence between (for example) the SE (esp London) and the Northern half of the UK. Do you see regional differences persisting, or (as I think you said before) some reversal, with the re-industrialisation of the NE perhaps giving nominal rises there?

I guess I am being cheeky and asking if you had any idea of regional breakdowns for those numbers (with a personal interest in the the SE and SW)?

I also see your inflation forecast again of 10% over 12 months and 6% the following 12 months, then 5%, which I am taking to be reassuring us that your concerns for collapse remain an outlier, even if the risk is getting higher.

Yes the falls will be an average and bubble area driven.Systemic collapse is still an outlier,but its moved from tiny chance,to a small,but its there chance.The government is a disaster,their actions are crazy,yet they carry on.I think the key is the BOE.IF they do their job and stop all QE the government will have to tax wealth or cut spending.They have already destroyed working.Its actually sickening.Every action for 20+ years has been a direct assault on anyone who tries to work and be self sufficient.

[Junction25]

Quick question has everyone sold their £10 shell shares ? looks to Me like Shell may have peaked ? or what do you think the price will peak at ?

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, Nomad said:

So only a 10% fall from today's nominal prices in the next two years?

Yes,thats 25% though inflation adjusted.Thats middle though of course,could be 15%,front loaded etc.My roadmaps tend to work very well at showing where we are going,how we get there cant really be tracked.30 months time might look like a sweet spot to buy.Lets see how it develops.

[Castlevania]

18 minutes ago, Junction25 said:

Quick question has everyone sold their £10 shell shares ? looks to Me like Shell may have peaked ? or what do you think the price will peak at ?

Slowly selling down my oil stocks, as they keep going higher and become too large a % of my portfolio. They’re all printing money at these prices and Shell are buying back their shares at these prices, which is something to consider.

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

B&M are having a bad day so far. They are the cheaper end of the market and like for like sales are well down. No wonder the governbankment wants to up bennies.

 

Doesn't surprise me. I used to pop in there fairly regularly as they did some things cheaper than anywhere else. They've jacked their prices up quite a lot now and I can't really find a reason to go in there anymore.

The whole point of them is to be cheap really and if they don't do that well then they're toast.

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im not sure yet,3.25% could be the peak,but they might stay there all cycle.The government has no hope of funding the bennies etc without QE so a lot depends on if the BOE finish off the UK by helping them with that or not.If the BOE does its job,government will have to cut spending.I think sterling will go up now,never mind what those big US banks say,but the BOE could push us into a hoffific situation if they monetise anymore government debt.

Do you think it's possible for them to stop printing? Are the scale of the required cuts in public spending simply too great for them to do? Be interested in your thoughts as to what you think they'll do.

They can see what's coming down the road which is why they're trying so hard to pump up immigration again. They can't see any other way out other then massive growth which I just can't see happening as it requires a cohesive Government plan - not just flooding the country with more cheap labour.

[CannonFodder]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes the falls will be an average and bubble area driven.Systemic collapse is still an outlier,but its moved from tiny chance,to a small

 

This was one area I always thought more likely so good or horrifying that you increasing your odds.

I dont look at it financially (am rubbish at that) - i look at it psychologically and i read some history

My thoughts is that we are about 6-8 years out from a massive collapse going on history. This is my most likely view and may go differently of course

They will do just enough to lurch along in terms of tax and benefits cuts but not anything more than the bar minimum to 2028-30 then the next cycle will bury them. The politicans wont do any more cos it is unpopular - each time fisical drag increases revenues, they will give back to keep it in limbo

Weimar was the same to an extent - high inflation in ww1 that fell back after a few years but ww1 inflation didnt cause anyone to blink- people digested they were reamed in real terms in years after that - lurched along for a few years then inflation picked up again in 1922 and people had realised holding cash would ream them again so money lost all value and currency collapse again.

Thats my view that no one will blink this cycle but next cycle once it soaks in then the stampede happens.

[AlfredTheLittle]

51 minutes ago, Junction25 said:

Quick question has everyone sold their £10 shell shares ? looks to Me like Shell may have peaked ? or what do you think the price will peak at ?

I think they're on about 4x PE based on current earnings, so could double again.

On the other hand, if peace breaks out, oil prices fall and the dollar weakens maybe they are at their peak, who knows? 🙂

[Chewing Grass]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

There's nothing to worry about I'm sure... https://www.gbnews.uk/news/six-million-brits-could-face-power-cuts-this-winter-with-government-planning-electricity-rationing/305725

"Ministers have reportedly been warned of potential power cuts to as many as six million households this winter, with the Government drawing up plans for rationed electricity if supply issues deteriorate.

According to The Times, Government modelling of a “reasonable” worst-case scenario predicts major gas shortages in winter if Russia cuts off more supplies to the EU.

The paper writes limits could be imposed on industrial use of gas, including on gas-fired power stations, causing electricity shortages.

As a result, six million homes could see their electricity rationed, primarily during morning and evening peaks, in curbs that may last more than a month.

Worse modelling is reported for a scenario in which Russia cuts off all supplies to the EU.

A Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy spokesperson told the PA news agency the UK “has no issues with either gas or electricity supply, and the Government is fully prepared for any scenario, even those that are extreme and very unlikely to pass”.

“Thanks to a massive £90 billion investment in renewable energy in the last decade, we have one of the most reliable and diverse energy systems in the world,” the spokesperson added, “and unlike Europe, we are not dependent on Russian energy imports.”

But threats to security of supply have prompted Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng to ask Britain’s coal-fired power stations to delay their planned closures."

And on lighter note, a recommendation on how to beat the petrol and diesel price increases

 

S that will be all of January plus the first two weeks of February then that are peak risk.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im not sure yet,3.25% could be the peak,but they might stay there all cycle.The government has no hope of funding the bennies etc without QE so a lot depends on if the BOE finish off the UK by helping them with that or not.If the BOE does its job,government will have to cut spending.I think sterling will go up now,never mind what those big US banks say,but the BOE could push us into a hoffific situation if they monetise anymore government debt.

Taxy taxy! If rate on savings went to 3.25% the governbankment would take a bit of any interest over the threshold.

The £1k allowance at 3.25% means £1000/0.0325 = £30,769.25 in savings or for an higher rate taxpayer £500/0.0325 = £15,384.62

https://www.gov.uk/apply-tax-free-interest-on-savings

Of course they might be tempted to increase the tax rate on savings as part of a wealth tax

[Pip321]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Taxy taxy! If rate on savings went to 3.25% the governbankment would take a bit of any interest over the threshold.

The £1k allowance at 3.25% means £1000/0.0325 = £30,769.25 in savings or for an higher rate taxpayer £500/0.0325 = £15,384.62

https://www.gov.uk/apply-tax-free-interest-on-savings

Of course they might be tempted to increase the tax rate on savings as part of a wealth tax

This is why Martin Lewis, telling everyone to take money from cash ISAs (if cash is part of your portfolio) and put it into normal instant access accounts for an extra 0.1%….was wrong.

ISAs offered a bit lower rate….but longer term tax shelter against rising rates, or perhaps increasing savings for those building savings. 

Am I allowed to say Martin Lewis was wrong? Is that sexist or racist or something nowadays….I know he is untouchable following his heroics getting us all £400 fuel allowance free from the government (well, free but paid for by ourselves) .😆

[ThoughtCriminal]

52 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

 

This was one area I always thought more likely so good or horrifying that you increasing your odds.

I dont look at it financially (am rubbish at that) - i look at it psychologically and i read some history

My thoughts is that we are about 6-8 years out from a massive collapse going on history. This is my most likely view and may go differently of course

They will do just enough to lurch along in terms of tax and benefits cuts but not anything more than the bar minimum to 2028-30 then the next cycle will bury them. The politicans wont do any more cos it is unpopular - each time fisical drag increases revenues, they will give back to keep it in limbo

Weimar was the same to an extent - high inflation in ww1 that fell back after a few years but ww1 inflation didnt cause anyone to blink- people digested they were reamed in real terms in years after that - lurched along for a few years then inflation picked up again in 1922 and people had realised holding cash would ream them again so money lost all value and currency collapse again.

Thats my view that no one will blink this cycle but next cycle once it soaks in then the stampede happens.

Agree entirely.

 

From the number on benefits, healthcare, power generation, immigration, the whole country reeks of incompetence. It's just teetering.

 

Western Civilisation as a whole has been getting by for decades on the third world accepting our toilet paper money for their cheap goods. That's ending.

 

I've said it before but we're seeing a paradigm shift. Reality is going to be one hell of a shock for 99% of the population.

[Democorruptcy]

UK mortgage approvals down to the lowest since they fired the post-covid starting pistol in June 2020 at 65,974

[leonardratso]

hey, saint martin of the morons if you please.

I was shocked to learn he was married. Mind you might be to a bloke, i dont know, i couldnt be arsed to do any further research on the one who saved us 20pence this decade but cost us £80K.

I think he looks rather shocked these days on tv, as if some form of reality had caught up with him and kicked him squaw in the nutz.

[feed]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

UK mortgage approvals down to the lowest since they fired the post-covid starting pistol in June 2020 at 65,974

and back to the pre covid mean. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Those 1920/30s vibes keeping coming.........

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hey, saint martin of the morons if you please.

I was shocked to learn he was married. Mind you might be to a bloke, i dont know, i couldnt be arsed to do any further research on the one who saved us 20pence this decade but cost us £80K.

I think he looks rather shocked these days on tv, as if some form of reality had caught up with him and kicked him squaw in the nutz.

He's married to an absolute stunner. Ex weather girl.

 

Being worth 50 million helps 

[kibuc]

Gold Fields is buying Yamana. Big boys are getting bigger.

[leonardratso]

15 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He's married to an absolute stunner. Ex weather girl.

 

Being worth 50 million helps 

i cant remember him reading the weather, doesnt surprise me that he was a girl though.

[Loki]

On 30/05/2022 at 11:16, ThoughtCriminal said:

Printy printy? 🤔

Anyone know what time it is, or what time the minutes get released?