Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Froggy2000]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Less services,but much higher bennies,over a 50% increase,nuts,

 funding for social security benefits will increase from £3.9bn to £6.3bn in cash terms.

It's disgusting. I sometimes think what we are seeing now is like an accelerated collapse of Rome style situation. If things are like this when the Tory's have an 80 seat majority, what would it be like if the welfare parasites took control?

[sancho panza]

Holger pointing out the inconsitencies and the reality that looms.Things looking up for German physical gold dealers

[tank]

13 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

It's disgusting. I sometimes think what we are seeing now is like an accelerated collapse of Rome style situation. If things are like this when the Tory's have an 80 seat majority, what would it be like if the welfare parasites took control?

The Tories are welfare 'parasites'.

Just not the type of 'parasites' that immediately come to mind when welfare is discussed on this forum or the Daily Mail. 

Think the Tory voting landlord class gorging on HB and Tory donating corporate rentiers in sharp suits as opposed to fat slags in cheap leggins and trackies. 😃😃

[Sasquatch]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Antidotal. My brothers business (agricultural equipment) has dried up to  ticking over levels. I initially flagged up the container shipping prices in 2020, and now he has 90% of his production in the UK. Business is very slow in a semi-inflation proof industry.

I am selling my complete rare Lego collection 

Lockdown was the ultimate market, I still have some high value retired sets at the cheapest prices on EBay. These would have been gone within a week in normal circumstances and now still there a month later.

Things have majorly changed. Most have no idea of the Tsunami that’s coming. 

I've been selling some of my records this past month. Directly to a dealer that I know. He's seeing decent trade in his shop  at the moment but I'm not convinced it will continue for too much longer....

[wherebee]

12 minutes ago, tank said:

They're going to issue another 3-4 million third world visas between now and the GE in 2024.

That will prop up BTL and more.

Any fall in property prices will be a small blip before 'normal service' resumes. That 2 bed Victorian terrace in South London will be worth ~£1 million by 2030. 

i see this argument, but counter with 'why aren't houses in bangladesh worth a million dollars then'.  massive population, massive demand for housing, worth fuck all.

increased population only increases house prices if credit or buyer capital is interested in buying.  If London is burning..

[wherebee]

the counter to this is that in hyperinflationary periods, ANY asset is better than fiat....

[DurhamBorn]

Notice today the problems at airports,not enough staff again.

“We can’t hire people, because it’s minimum wage. Because everyone wants to work for Amazon or Tesco or Sainsbury’s — because they pay better. They have steady, uninterrupted rosters or work schedules.

Of course thats only half the story,the real reason is because they can go somewhere else,work 16 hours doing not very much and get full bennies.

My partners service is collapsing tonight.Should be 12 responders county wide,there are 5.Two newest recruits both phoned in sick today.They tried to contact managers,but none around,all working from home,but not answering phones.The council now simply exists to pay pensions and managers bloated salaries while they sit at home.Its incredible that the government seems unable to get control of anything.If i could go back in time id gladly put a bullet in Brown and Blair,yet i think this government has now gone past that one for destroying the country.

Public services dont exist anymore,just the cost.

[tank]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

i see this argument, but counter with 'why aren't houses in bangladesh worth a million dollars then'.  massive population, massive demand for housing, worth fuck al.

There's a simple reason.

Bangladesh is a third world country with no stable legal system affording property ownership rights. 

That pokey South London terrace has all that plus running water, leccy, sewerage in a 'global' city. Its value will, at the very least, keep pace with inflation between now and 2030. 

 

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, tank said:

There's a simple reason.

Bangladesh is a third world country with no stable legal system affording property ownership rights. 

That pokey South London terrace has all that plus running water, leccy, sewerage in a 'global' city. Its value will, at the very least, keep pace with inflation between now and 2030. 

 

Has Bangladesh locked investors out of Gazprom shares? 

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, Plan-b said:

I'd say a BRICS country but been to/worked in most of them so it's a nope on those.

Open to ideas, none apparent at the moment, unfortunately.

What's wrong with Brazil?

[Froggy2000]

53 minutes ago, tank said:

The Tories are welfare 'parasites'.

Just not the type of 'parasites' that immediately come to mind when welfare is discussed on this forum or the Daily Mail. 

Think the Tory voting landlord class gorging on HB and Tory donating corporate rentiers in sharp suits as opposed to fat slags in cheap leggins and trackies. 😃😃

Well that's a good point and now you put it that way I prefer the fat slags

[Starsend]

7 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

So a live example of tax cuts doing fuck all after a short-term blip.

There may be trouble ahead.

 

[Lightscribe]

5 hours ago, tank said:

They're going to issue another 3-4 million third world visas between now and the GE in 2024.

That will prop up BTL and more.

Any fall in property prices will be a small blip before 'normal service' resumes. That 2 bed Victorian terrace in South London will be worth ~£1 million by 2030. 

Nope I don’t think so. The government has signalled its intention to wage war with private BTL ownership with S24, regulations, No fault evictions etc. They are actively discouraging it.

Yes we’ll continue to have mass migration, but by 2030 they have the goal that capitalism will be dead. Interest rates will rise, house prices will tank and private landlords will go bust and be forced sellers, then the banks will there to repossess and mop up the dregs so that generation rent continues to rent, owns nothing and remembers to be happy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjkdyy9xgn3o.amp

[Lightscribe]

5 hours ago, Froggy2000 said:

It's disgusting. I sometimes think what we are seeing now is like an accelerated collapse of Rome style situation.

That’s exactly what it will be, a super cycle transition. When you make peace with that, all clown world governmental actions and economic ridiculousness make perfect sense. It actually all becomes rather amusing.

We know that they know the current system cannot continue. The merry-go-round is spinning faster and bits are flying off. 

The governments answer is CBDCs. Can’t make an omelette without cracking a few eggs and all that.

All you can do is prepare yourself and family with that in mind sit back and watch the show.

[Plan-b]

6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

What's wrong with Brazil?

That would be a favourite choice out of these for off shore accounts - the tax/legal system of this can be problematic.

Would also be a decent choice for residency but with a few caveats.

(there will always be some)

Rife Crime

Rife Corruption

Intricacies of the Brazilian Portuguese language that non speakers struggle with.

(inho inha usage)

You would need to learn that to live there (not a lot of English spoken outside of the cities).

Climate difficulties for a soft westerner.

[tank]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Nope I don’t think so. The government has signalled its intention to wage war with private BTL ownership with S24, regulations, No fault evictions etc. They are actively discouraging it.

Yes we’ll continue to have mass migration, but by 2030 they have the goal that capitalism will be dead. Interest rates will rise, house prices will tank and private landlords will go bust and be forced sellers, then the banks will there to repossess and mop up the dregs so that generation rent continues to rent, owns nothing and remembers to be happy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjkdyy9xgn3o.amp

Given that 80%+ of Tory MPs are landlords, I find it very hard to believe they're waging war with their own kind. The Tory Party exists to conserve the wealth of landowners, not destroy it. 

S24 has had zero impact as predicted and most of the regs are widely ignored by slumlords.

No government would issue 1 million visas in 12 months unless they were trying to give rentiers a big leg up and they're just getting started on that score. 

[Plan-b]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Nope I don’t think so. The government has signalled its intention to wage war with private BTL ownership with S24, regulations, No fault evictions etc. They are actively discouraging it.

Yes we’ll continue to have mass migration, but by 2030 they have the goal that capitalism will be dead. Interest rates will rise, house prices will tank and private landlords will go bust and be forced sellers, then the banks will there to repossess and mop up the dregs so that generation rent continues to rent, owns nothing and remembers to be happy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjkdyy9xgn3o.amp

There is only one solution:

 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, tank said:

Given that 80%+ of Tory MPs are landlords, I find it very hard to believe they're waging war with their own kind. The Tory Party exists to conserve the wealth of landowners, not destroy it. 

S24 has had zero impact as predicted and most of the regs are widely ignored by slumlords.

No government would issue 1 million visas in 12 months unless they were trying to give rentiers a big leg up and they're just getting started on that score. 

Land owners, banks and build-to-rent no. Common plebs who’s over leveraged themselves on cheap debt yes. The rug will be pulled from beneath their feet.

What exactly are forever rising house prices going to be supported by? People will lose jobs, businesses will close, generation rent with RPI student loans wont be getting richer (even with those lucky enough to inherit 1/3rd of a house) or retiring earlier and they wont be producing more consumers (children) for everlasting growth.

This is it, this is where growth has reached its limit in relation to finite resources and declining working population. Nobody will be in a position to obtain ever increasing debt and the banks wont be lending it. 

Mass migration doesn’t create demand for house buying from anything but private BTL HMO chancers (otherwise they wouldn’t all be housed in the nations hotels) and it doesn’t create growth, it creates ever more need for government support. Now if the government and banks owned most the housing stock through insolvency and debt jubilees it could be distributed and rented accordingly… CBDCs, UBI etc.

[JohnnyB]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Notice today the problems at airports,not enough staff again.

“We can’t hire people, because it’s minimum wage. Because everyone wants to work for Amazon or Tesco or Sainsbury’s — because they pay better. They have steady, uninterrupted rosters or work schedules.

Of course thats only half the story,the real reason is because they can go somewhere else,work 16 hours doing not very much and get full bennies.

My partners service is collapsing tonight.Should be 12 responders county wide,there are 5.Two newest recruits both phoned in sick today.They tried to contact managers,but none around,all working from home,but not answering phones.The council now simply exists to pay pensions and managers bloated salaries while they sit at home.Its incredible that the government seems unable to get control of anything.If i could go back in time id gladly put a bullet in Brown and Blair,yet i think this government has now gone past that one for destroying the country.

Public services dont exist anymore,just the cost.

Also the only attraction for a good chunk of the population NOT to go on the tax credit/housing benefit part time route is that you don't build up any housing equity so end up a bit screwed later on when the bennies disappear but still full rent. Hard work to do full time hours but worth it to whittle down mortgage.

On lower wages this was previously still just barely achievable before (not in hellhole London though) however the gigabubble housing price rises since Covid and the QE 15% inflation kicking in means this option is falling out of reach for millions. And then you really are better lowering hours and -maxxing.

[Barnsey]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Notice today the problems at airports,not enough staff again.

“We can’t hire people, because it’s minimum wage. Because everyone wants to work for Amazon or Tesco or Sainsbury’s — because they pay better. They have steady, uninterrupted rosters or work schedules.

Of course thats only half the story,the real reason is because they can go somewhere else,work 16 hours doing not very much and get full bennies.

My partners service is collapsing tonight.Should be 12 responders county wide,there are 5.Two newest recruits both phoned in sick today.They tried to contact managers,but none around,all working from home,but not answering phones.The council now simply exists to pay pensions and managers bloated salaries while they sit at home.Its incredible that the government seems unable to get control of anything.If i could go back in time id gladly put a bullet in Brown and Blair,yet i think this government has now gone past that one for destroying the country.

Public services dont exist anymore,just the cost.

On airports, they don't want to pay more because they know demand will fall off a cliff into 2023 as everyone uses up their holiday vouchers from the past 2 years of cancellations. 

Interesting taxi chat, he works for uber as he doesn't like the stress of cash in hand jobs but with pay plummeting after the win for drivers on holiday pay rights, and no compensation for much higher fuel costs, he's being tempted back to the dark side.

Big taxi firm in Brum, most drivers on all bennies and council housing but getting contract cash jobs for good money.

Have no idea how this is permitted? He obviously feels like a right mug, and it's that attitude that will cause things to spiral if honest work doesn't pay. 

Another taxi firm my company uses, cash jobs again, drivers developing properties, new builds and slumlord knock through properties. 

EDIT: Just found this, tax checks now commencing for taxi driver licence renewals 

https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-hmrc-to-come-down-hard-on-cab-drivers-and-scrap-metal-merchants-with-tax-checks-before-licence-renewal/

[Lightscribe]

14 minutes ago, JohnnyB said:

Also the only attraction for a good chunk of the population NOT to go on the tax credit/housing benefit part time route is that you don't build up any housing equity so end up a bit screwed later on when the bennies disappear but still full rent. Hard work to do full time hours but worth it to whittle down mortgage.

On lower wages this was previously still just barely achievable before (not in hellhole London though) however the gigabubble housing price rises since Covid and the QE 15% inflation kicking in means this option is falling out of reach for millions. And then you really are better lowering hours and -maxxing.

Pension credit. Gov pays the rent as well as bennies to the equivalent for anyone who hasn’t got their stamps or savings threshold.

[jamtomorrow]

10 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Ultimately though, why would anyone base a stablecoin here when El Salvadore etc are just as available and barely regulated? The only situation I can think of is a public/private partnership, ie CBDC in all but name. KYC/AML would be the death of any kind of real crypto-currency or self-custody. People would expect to be able to do chargebacks or get lost private keys reset!

This is a decent shout @Axeman123.

Specifically, it looks to me like an unholy union between a state actor (UK) for which decentralized tokens are anathema (because who needs a global centre for currency trading in *that* future?) and a private token company (Ripple) struggling to keep a toe-hold in crypto because everyone knows it's laughably centralized.

Will be interesting to see how they set about trying to make it stick with Joe Public. But you can see the first kites of that process being flown in these two paras:

Personally, I have mixed feelings about crypto. I cannot see how Bitcoin is anything other than a parasitical Ponzi scheme. It offers no usable payment system, and it famously consumes as much electricity as Portugal to run its verification protocol.

Bet let us not paint all cryptos with the same brush. Ripple is over 50,000 times more energy efficient than Bitcoin. We need an ecological tariff that kills off egregious abusers, giving a competitive advantage to the frugal. The crypto industry will sort out its carbon footprint with the right price signals.

So Bitcoin is a ponzi, but Ripple is not. Got it: four legs good, two legs bad

Edit to add: from Ripple's perspective, a UK base of ops might be somewhat preferable to El Salvador if they can get close enough on the regulatory side, with it being a bit less murdery - for now

[RJT1979]

8 hours ago, Starsend said:

 

What insurance would have helped him? Gonna top himself?

[feed]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

increased population only increases house prices if credit or buyer capital is interested in buying.  If London is burning..

indeed.  It surprises me that after all of the data we have, people still think house prices are anything other than the availability of credit.  

[BWW]

On 31/05/2022 at 21:30, Lightly Toasted said:

They have the advantage of not having their own magic money tree

Comparable to countries seeking to self-impose fiscal discipline by using currency substitution, though less extreme because Scotland is a semi-detached part of the UK rather than being an independent state.

 

Don't worry they're still increasing the budget by 13%+ and the ones who have the magin money tree are paying for it.

Have also not noticed the lack of QE in euroland.