Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

On 01/06/2022 at 20:57, Bricormortis said:

There is 6 nato warships arrived in Devonport yard Plymouth and there has been some uptick of activity re the Forces there. It did raise my eyebrows a bit given the context re Ukraine, now today I am reading Nato are looking at going into the Black Sea to get the grain out.

Now it may not happen, also Russia might back off. However If it gets nasty you have to expect big market volatility.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-s-nato-envoy-warns-royal-navy-may-have-to-battle-russia/ar-AAXXPge?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=eab484ab661b4f6fbc5956b187be4a7d

 

Alec Shelbrooke, MP and leader of Uk parliament delegation to Nato said...

“This would be a dangerous task, and we must be prepared that we may need to engage in lethal defensive force against the Russian Naval sea blockade. This would certainly run the risk of escalating the war in Europe, and a high risk of death to British service personnel serving in any Joint Expeditionary Force.

“If we do not properly consider such a mission, then I believe we risk hyperinflation on food prices at home, and starvation in the third world, which will undoubtedly lead to yet further influxes of refugees into Europe.

also @Majorpain

I'm on a small wahtsapp group with some old muckers who follow these things(one or two still serving).Discussion today I asked what was really happening as theMSM was pisspoor and clearly taking orders from Gubbermint who are in an  absolute mess

few things came back.

1) one learned view was that Russia has 90% of what it wanted and are 'pushing for tactical high ground to defend what they've taken'.Russia doesn't want to occupy all Ukraine,jsut want a sea port plus ethnic Russian areas

2) Anotehr learned view :Ukrainian losses are running possibly at 700 battle causlaties per week and they're struggling.UK/US not wanting to see whats happening

Interesting vid,not sure how pukka gen this is but here it is.SOme Ukrainian soldiers discussing their leadership sending them up under artillery fire to attack Russian positions and taking losses.

 

I would welcome anyone who can psot some genuinely indepednet analysis of whats happening in the Ukraine.Doesn't matter what the conclusion is,jsut want to see the evidence

 

another vid,same source.Can imagine this conversation.Not sure how much of the Ukrainian military is recent volunteers but they will be hard to get up to the line if the officers aren't going with them.

There are other similar vids on that cahnnel,clearly could be Russian propagnada but looking at how quickly the Ukrainian trained troops,it tkaes years of operational experience to establish good comms/medevac/resupply capacity and training.

[DurhamBorn]

Telegraph reading the thread again.100% they are getting lots of their ideas from here.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/02/benefits-britain-back-condemning-millions-dependency/

They miss one thing though.Lots of people retiring early etc because they are sick of paying for the bennies.

[wherebee]

43 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Telegraph reading the thread again.100% they are getting lots of their ideas from here.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/02/benefits-britain-back-condemning-millions-dependency/

They miss one thing though.Lots of people retiring early etc because they are sick of paying for the bennies.

If true, I want the journo to use the triggerphrase ''disasters like this are made, not born randomly" as a nod to DB's brillance.

[Barnsey]

7 hours ago, wherebee said:

If true, I want the journo to use the triggerphrase ''disasters like this are made, not born randomly" as a nod to DB's brillance.

Maybe some pizza oven reviews next 

But seriously, great work @DurhamBornand everyone else on here, choppy waters straight ahead!

[WICAO]

Some long'ish term annualised return data from a real life portfolio after all expenses (both product and wrapper) and withholding taxes from end 2007 to the present day.

Annualised return +6.3%

Annualised inflation (RPI) +3.3%

Therefore, real annualised return +3.0%

My initial FIRE plan assumed a real 4% so right now I'm considerably behind that.  Fortunately, other elements of my plan exceeded that plan so the world is still great.

[WICAO]

Inflation here in Australia is officially running at 5.1%.

The newly elected Labour federal government have today made a submission to the Fair Work Commission for the minimum wage to be increased by at least 5.1%.

So it looks like inflation might be starting to feed into Australian earnings.  Let's see if that gets the RBA excited at their interest rate setting meeting next week.

[Long-game]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Telegraph reading the thread again.100% they are getting lots of their ideas from here.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/02/benefits-britain-back-condemning-millions-dependency/

They miss one thing though.Lots of people retiring early etc because they are sick of paying for the bennies.

Not retired, but part time now due to being sick of paying the bennies.

[JohnnyB]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Telegraph reading the thread again.100% they are getting lots of their ideas from here.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/02/benefits-britain-back-condemning-millions-dependency/

They miss one thing though.Lots of people retiring early etc because they are sick of paying for the bennies.

Maybe! But has any mainstream site published anything that didn't blame inflation on covid&russia or that didn't toe the line that it's temporary and will fall by xmas?

 

I think the social situation is getting too extreme to ignore now. Record job vacancies, sectors crying out for workers yet working-age benefits bill spiraling out of control? 'Millions' of britons skipping meals and going hungry whilst obesity still increasing? Cost of living crisis yet the main news is that people missed flights to go on foreign holidays?

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, JohnnyB said:

Maybe! But has any mainstream site published anything that didn't blame inflation on covid&russia or that didn't toe the line that it's temporary and will fall by xmas?

 

I think the social situation is getting too extreme to ignore now. Record job vacancies, sectors crying out for workers yet working-age benefits bill spiraling out of control? 'Millions' of britons skipping meals and going hungry whilst obesity still increasing? Cost of living crisis yet the main news is that people missed flights to go on foreign holidays?

 

 

Its starting ,the boss is right of course,and companies are now pushing back against nut job government.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10879989/Airport-bosses-order-wheelchairs-amid-claims-passengers-faking-disabilities-jump-queues.html

Media etc are always years behind and people on £100k in cushy jobs dont understand that working for £25k when you can get £20k on bennies doesnt work.

 

[feed]

36 minutes ago, Long-game said:

Not retired, but part time now due to being sick of paying the bennies.

I went 4 days a couple of years ago and keep being asked to go for a promotion, but i'm essentially just waiting for a pay off.  It's not so much the benefits i have a problem with, it's more there is just no point in working.  

The few house around me.  3 retired couples; 2 are in their late 70's so well out of the game, 1 mid 50's ex public sector.  1 college lecturer, 1 recent immigrant taxi driver.  We all live in 1920's houses built for working class families by a local printing firm. work at the firm, live in the firms housing.  Firm has long since gone of course.    

But we all essentially have the same standard of living.  What is the point working well inside the 40% if you're going to have the same standard of living as low skilled labour.  

[Innkeeper]

17 minutes ago, feed said:

I went 4 days a couple of years ago and keep being asked to go for a promotion, but i'm essentially just waiting for a pay off.  It's not so much the benefits i have a problem with, it's more there is just no point in working.  

The few house around me.  3 retired couples; 2 are in their late 70's so well out of the game, 1 mid 50's ex public sector.  1 college lecturer, 1 recent immigrant taxi driver.  We all live in 1920's houses built for working class families by a local printing firm. work at the firm, live in the firms housing.  Firm has long since gone of course.    

But we all essentially have the same standard of living.  What is the point working well inside the 40% if you're going to have the same standard of living as low skilled labour.  

Communism.

It’s creeping up on us 

 

[Bricormortis]

11 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Any silver bugs with an HL account?

Silver Viper is apparently up 34% today.  A whole 7c to $0.275CAD!
Ya dancer, I'm rich!   Errr, I mean, a little further out of the hole i fell in with this one.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/VIPR.V

But my HL says its only up 19.5%, and its only 25c.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/silver-viper-minerals-corp-npv

I spect they went home early for the jubilee or something.

I dont trust HL software after seeing an ETF I had a large position in  (ENCG ) loose 25% then regain it a minute later, happened several times. I highly doubt it was the market price being volatile.

[Errol]

 

[Majorpain]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

also @Majorpain

I'm on a small wahtsapp group with some old muckers who follow these things(one or two still serving).Discussion today I asked what was really happening as theMSM was pisspoor and clearly taking orders from Gubbermint who are in an  absolute mess

few things came back.

1) one learned view was that Russia has 90% of what it wanted and are 'pushing for tactical high ground to defend what they've taken'.Russia doesn't want to occupy all Ukraine,jsut want a sea port plus ethnic Russian areas

2) Anotehr learned view :Ukrainian losses are running possibly at 700 battle causlaties per week and they're struggling.UK/US not wanting to see whats happening

Interesting vid,not sure how pukka gen this is but here it is.SOme Ukrainian soldiers discussing their leadership sending them up under artillery fire to attack Russian positions and taking losses.

 

I would welcome anyone who can psot some genuinely indepednet analysis of whats happening in the Ukraine.Doesn't matter what the conclusion is,jsut want to see the evidence

 

another vid,same source.Can imagine this conversation.Not sure how much of the Ukrainian military is recent volunteers but they will be hard to get up to the line if the officers aren't going with them.

There are other similar vids on that cahnnel,clearly could be Russian propagnada but looking at how quickly the Ukrainian trained troops,it tkaes years of operational experience to establish good comms/medevac/resupply capacity and training.

War is politics by other means, the losses the Russians have taken and the casualties they are inflicting on Ukraine (i guesstimated 1,500 a day average) puts the ball in the Russian court. IMO at some point Ukraine is going to be no longer able to resist and will be pretty much forced to give the Russians what they want for peace.  What does that possibly look like?

The entire conflict is very difficult to get a handle on with fog of war in place, Ukraine casualties and equipment losses are kept under very tight wraps, but if you look at what they had before the conflict started and what they are begging for now it doesn't look good, a significant chunk of those tanks, vehicles and artillery are gone or they wouldn't be begging for more.  Thats the same for regular trained soldiers, replaced with conscripts with a month of training at best.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Ukrainian_Ground_Forces

As you can probably imagine, troops are not madly keen on being sent on suicide missions, infantry vs artillery with a massive amount of ammunition is not going to be a fun place to be, and in parts of the front its all Ukraine has.  Being promised support for a position that doesn't exist will work the first few times, as you can see from the videos by the fourth or fifth time the troops just don't believe it any more.

[Bricormortis]

June !st is the start of the atlantic hurricance season. NOAA says above average hurricane risks this year.

( re disruption to oilies )

[Errol]

5 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

War is politics by other means, the losses the Russians have taken and the casualties they are inflicting on Ukraine (i guesstimated 1,500 a day average) puts the ball in the Russian court. IMO at some point Ukraine is going to be no longer able to resist and will be pretty much forced to give the Russians what they want for peace.  What does that possibly look like?

The entire conflict is very difficult to get a handle on with fog of war in place, Ukraine casualties and equipment losses are kept under very tight wraps, but if you look at what they had before the conflict started and what they are begging for now it doesn't look good, a significant chunk of those tanks, vehicles and artillery are gone or they wouldn't be begging for more.  Thats the same for regular trained soldiers, replaced with conscripts with a month of training at best.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Ukrainian_Ground_Forces

As you can probably imagine, troops are not madly keen on being sent on suicide missions, infantry vs artillery with a massive amount of ammunition is not going to be a fun place to be, and in parts of the front its all Ukraine has.  Being promised support for a position that doesn't exist will work the first few times, as you can see from the videos by the fourth or fifth time the troops just don't believe it any more.

Agreed. Except these areas will vote to join Russia proper, so will be part of the Russian Federation.

[Bricormortis]

US corporations have sold $58 billion in asset back securities pertaining to auto loans this year. Thats bonds underwritten by car loans.

Meanwhile new car sales plummet stateside. Honda down over 57 % yoy

Car loan defaults at an all time high.

[M S E Refugee]

42 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

I dont trust HL software after seeing an ETF I had a large position in  (ENCG ) loose 25% then regain it a minute later, happened several times. I highly doubt it was the market price being volatile.

HL are pretty poor, the top 10 investments in this ETF are completely wrong.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/hanetf-alerian-midstream-energy-div-ucits

These are what the real top 10 holdings are.

Top 10 Holdings	30/04/2022
Enterprise Products Partners LP	10.30%
MLPX LP	10.04%
Enbridge Inc	9.83%
TC Energy Corporation	9.48%
Kinder Morgan Inc	9.04%
Energy Transfer LP	8.43%
The Williams Companies Inc	8.15%
ONEOK Inc	5.84%
Cheniere Energy Partners LP	5.10%
Pembina Pipeline Corporation	4.29%

[Majorpain]

28 minutes ago, Errol said:

Agreed. Except these areas will vote to join Russia proper, so will be part of the Russian Federation.

They probably will, but in the reflationary scenario those area's are all big in agriculture, mining and industry so would be able to do just fine on their own without Russia.  

Rump Ukraine without them would be in a miserable condition, all those foreign loans for weapons and majority of industry gone.

[Axeman123]

38 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

...and suddenly the widely speculated "innevitable" annexation of the extreme east by Poland makes more sense.

[kibuc]

3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

...and suddenly the widely speculated "innevitable" annexation of the extreme east by Poland makes more sense.

...yet still remains purely imaginary. It's not "widely" speculated either, RT and some obscure trollgrounds do not justify such qualifier.

[Shamone]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

working for £25k

I wish!

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, feed said:

I went 4 days a couple of years ago and keep being asked to go for a promotion, but i'm essentially just waiting for a pay off.  It's not so much the benefits i have a problem with, it's more there is just no point in working.  

The few house around me.  3 retired couples; 2 are in their late 70's so well out of the game, 1 mid 50's ex public sector.  1 college lecturer, 1 recent immigrant taxi driver.  We all live in 1920's houses built for working class families by a local printing firm. work at the firm, live in the firms housing.  Firm has long since gone of course.    

But we all essentially have the same standard of living.  What is the point working well inside the 40% if you're going to have the same standard of living as low skilled labour.  

I think thats the main damage the Blair/Brown government caused.There is simply no thought given to workers time.Never see your kids play for the school team,miss all sports days,leave them to their own devices between school and parents coming home etc to be £50 a week better off than bennies.

When i was 20 most knew you bought a house paid it down then from 40ish you would be much better off than bennies.Not now.Of course housing is a huge part of the problem,that and mass immigration.I find it incredible the young vote for the left when its those policies that have hit them so hard.Its great though that companies are telling the useless polos now.Problem is with inflation linking bennies,its just getting worse and worse,not better.

A huge part of the housing problem is public sector workers buying BTLs,its almost the law they use their 25% pension lump sum for it.Im convinced they will be burned,but the government seems intent on instead collapsing the entire system.I dont think they have any understanding of how their direction in macro terms means almost certain collapse.They are trying to fight the price signals by doubling down.Incredible really,but the left have control with their great reset agenda sadly.

[Democorruptcy]

If Uncle Dave uses Point & Figure charts he must be bouncing. The DJA & Nasdaq have given a positive sign Daily & Weekly, the S&P only Daily so far and the VIX is now showing a negative sign Daily & Weekly.

[Lightscribe]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

If Uncle Dave uses Point & Figure charts he must be bouncing. The DJA & Nasdaq have given a positive sign Daily & Weekly, the S&P only Daily so far and the VIX is now showing a negative sign Daily & Weekly.

Still lower highs the whole way down as far as I’m concerned. What do growth stocks do when there’s no growth after all? Recession full steam ahead.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-daly-lets-get-us-interest-rates-25-quickly-we-can-2022-06-01/