Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Roger]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

and i suspect lots of probate money will be leaving property and going the way of HL and Abrdn.

Can I ask what makes you say this?

I'd have guessed the beneficiaries of probate money will often be using it to supplement their lack of retirement savings or pay off their mortgages (/buy larger property) or buy BTLs (a British obsession) or maintain their lifestyles in the face of above target inflation.

Are you expecting the property porn to disappear from TV and Brits to start favouring investing in the stock market?

[Viceroy]

22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

I would welcome anyone who can psot some genuinely indepednet analysis of whats happening in the Ukraine.Doesn't matter what the conclusion is,jsut want to see the evidence

I rate these journos and their independent/unbiased coverage of Ukraine and the wider conspiracies.

@EvaKBartlett

@GonzaloLira1968 + @realGonzaloLira pre Apr '22 (a Chilean living in Ukraine)

latest from him: 

 

@JamesGRickards

@RealGeorgeWebb1

 

Latest from Armstrong re war 'Our sources have been warning that the US is prodding Israel and Saudi Arabia to attack Iran. Israeli has been now staging exercises on taking out Iran's nuclear facilities. Our sources have relayed that the Israeli Air Force fighter jets have been conducting air maneuvers over the Mediterranean Sea which began last night. They are "simulating" striking Iranian nuclear facilities. I have warned that it appears that the American Neocons are trying to start a war in the Middle East to further drain the Russian capability. The US is only using Proxy Wars so as not to actually engage directly to keep the US forces in reserve.When we look at the Timing Array on Israel, it clearly appears that the trend is setting up and the Directional Change we have next year in 2023 coincides with our Timing Array on Global International War.  The volatility will rise but the next important turning point will be 2025.  It certainly appears that the period post-2024 is where this is likely to spread globally'

 

[King Penda]

6 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Another alarm pointer to those thinking that crypto was a flash-in-the-pan that will snuffed out with the end of the cycle. Nope it’s here to stay.

There are dozens geting 

[M S E Refugee]

US, EU inflation result of ‘unprecedented’ money-printing – Putin https://www.rt.com/russia/556587-putin-inflation-us-eu/

[Chewing Grass]

7 hours ago, Majorpain said:

It always comes back to property is an illiquid and poor investment, no matter how much these guys spin it.  £300k would you get you enough machinery for a decent sized company that would maybe yield you £30-40k a year, but that takes real effort and these idiots would rather tie up £300k for £5-6k a year (or less with Void/damage/repairs).  

Private Landlords were virtually non-existent in the 1970s. The only ones I knew were crooked councillors who 'acquired' knackered terraced houses in the shittiest areas of town and round my town (St Helens) they were old-skool Labour scum.

The thing about 'bricks 'n' mortar' is the mid-wits can understand it and ignore logic unless its staring them in the face.

• Buy House
• Get Tennant to pay for it.
• Sell house

If interest rates are falling (1992 onwards) it worked and people copied it, no intelligence required.

The environment around it was also deliberately lacking in effective taxation and regulation.

From 1998 everyone wanted in, just borrow the money (interest only) buy shit houses in shit areas and make them shitter with benefits tenants for guaranteed income, no doubt plenty of councillors in on it just like the 1970s.

Classic Animal Farm.

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Private Landlords were virtually non-existent in the 1970s. The only ones I knew were crooked councillors who 'acquired' knackered terraced houses in the shittiest areas of town and round my town (St Helens) they were old-skool Labour scum.

The thing about 'bricks 'n' mortar' is the mid-wits can understand it and ignore logic unless its staring them in the face.

• Buy House
• Get Tennant to pay for it.
• Sell house

If interest rates are falling (1992 onwards) it worked and people copied it, no intelligence required.

The environment around it was also deliberately lacking in effective taxation and regulation.

From 1998 everyone wanted in, just borrow the money (interest only) buy shit houses in shit areas and make them shitter with benefits tenants for guaranteed income, no doubt plenty of councillors in on it just like the 1970s.

Classic Animal Farm.

Public sector are grossly over represented in IOBTL, as well as Laboury types.

 

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, Majorpain said:

As you can probably imagine, troops are not madly keen on being sent on suicide missions, infantry vs artillery with a massive amount of ammunition is not going to be a fun place to be, and in parts of the front its all Ukraine has.  Being promised support for a position that doesn't exist will work the first few times, as you can see from the videos by the fourth or fifth time the troops just don't believe it any more.

It'sbeen interesting watching this from a distance.I've  a mate who's in the regulars now(a few Afghan tours as a reservist) and he's jsut got back from somehwere near the Ukraine.He was teling me the young Toms in his unit were mad for it.The SNCO's ,ones who've served in Afghan(still a good few) and Iraq,(less but still a few) had a very different attitude.Some have seen mates lose limbs/die and seen what's happened to the Taliban we've bombed with drones where all you find is body parts.Him and his ilk are telling the young uns not to get too keen to cross the Rubicon on this one.

Overriding feeling I get tlaking with him is the more general 'what the f*** are we doing here?'.There's no game plan for us to move in and more importnantly to get out,particualrly importnant following the monumental messes that followed our woithdrawal in Iraq/Afghan.

I'd imagine that feeling of complete detachment from the politcal elite is mulitplied 100x in Ukraine as Zelensky(no military expereinceas I understand it same as Boris Johnson,Joe Biden,Kamala Harris) orders them to head into the Russian drones and artillery from his office in Kiev.Like you say MP,fine the first time,second time....???.

Don't get me worng,I feel sorry for the Russian Toms too.Mainly conscripts aiui.Wouldn't want to be them either,but at least they're on the side with the air superiority.

It's a mess out there.Lot of people seem to be dying for the ego's of politicians.

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, spygirl said:

Thinking, even his dire 5m figure is too low.

Theres 6m in UC, 4m of which are single parents.

UC civers what youd count as dole.

To that youve got the pro DLA crew.

Number of claimants

State Pension

12,452,000

Universal Credit

5,806,000

Housing Benefit

2,776,000

Personal Independence Payment

2,773,000

Employment and Support Allowance

1,784,000

Attendance Allowance

1,514,000

Pension Credit

1,420,000

Disability Living Allowance

1,347,000

Carer’s Allowance

1,304,000

Income Support

217,000

Jobseeker’s Allowance

137,000

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwp-benefits-statistics-february-2022/dwp-benefits-statistics-february-2022

I was wrong JSA is still start from UC.

 

 

 

 

That's a massive Wow!!! right there .Holy smoly.I dodn't know that.

[reformed nice guy]

I would love to see some Venn diagrams on how those figures overlap.

I imagine massive crossover between UC, PIP, housing benefit, attendance allowance, DLA, carers allowance.

Its a racket. Poverty Inc. Similar to the military industrial complex

[Starsend]

6 hours ago, spygirl said:

Thinking, even his dire 5m figure is too low.

Theres 6m in UC, 4m of which are single parents.

UC civers what youd count as dole.

To that youve got the pro DLA crew.

Number of claimants

State Pension

12,452,000

Universal Credit

5,806,000

Housing Benefit

2,776,000

Personal Independence Payment

2,773,000

Employment and Support Allowance

1,784,000

Attendance Allowance

1,514,000

Pension Credit

1,420,000

Disability Living Allowance

1,347,000

Carer’s Allowance

1,304,000

Income Support

217,000

Jobseeker’s Allowance

137,000

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwp-benefits-statistics-february-2022/dwp-benefits-statistics-february-2022

I was wrong JSA is still start from UC.

 

 

 

 

I must be the only fucker in the country getting bugger all.

[Sugarlips]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Private Landlords were virtually non-existent in the 1970s. The only ones I knew were crooked councillors who 'acquired' knackered terraced houses in the shittiest areas of town and round my town (St Helens) they were old-skool Labour scum.

The thing about 'bricks 'n' mortar' is the mid-wits can understand it and ignore logic unless its staring them in the face.

• Buy House
• Get Tennant to pay for it.
• Sell house

If interest rates are falling (1992 onwards) it worked and people copied it, no intelligence required.

The environment around it was also deliberately lacking in effective taxation and regulation.

From 1998 everyone wanted in, just borrow the money (interest only) buy shit houses in shit areas and make them shitter with benefits tenants for guaranteed income, no doubt plenty of councillors in on it just like the 1970s.

Classic Animal Farm.

I no longer have words for the prices round our way. The job ads are still £10 ph, there is no way to square it.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/121673981#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media0&ref=photoCollage

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

I no longer have words for the prices round our way. The job ads are still £10 ph, there is no way to square it.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/121673981#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media0&ref=photoCollage

back to victorian times.  most working class would never have a chance of owning capital such as a home; rent all the way until too old to work, then the poorhouse.

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

That's a massive Wow!!! right there .Holy smoly.I dodn't know that.

Lies damned lies statistic and working age benefits/unemployment numbers ...

Fro somewhere like middlesbrough , i reckon the number of working age (20-66) not working FT without support from benefits bar child bennie, is around 50%, might be slightly less, might be a bit more.

And there are a lot of places like boro, not just in the North. Soron, Bristol, Pmouth, Brighton, Lodnon too.

And to that 50% not working, youve then got charities and public sector all drawing cash, being paid to 'help' these dossers.

The poverty industry.

 

There is a proxy stats, that allows you to track working age work dodging.The number of people who pay the full NI stamp.

Todays OAPS retire at 66, Most will have out of eduction since - so 50 years of possible.

Of that 50 they need to work 35 for a full state pension.

SO, you can still have your 50s and 60s off and still collect a full pension.

Or just work 2 weeks in 3.

Only 40% of adults make that low hurdle.

 

6 hours ago, Starsend said:

I must be the only fucker in the country getting bugger all.

I dont either, if it makes you feel better.

 

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I would love to see some Venn diagrams on how those figures overlap.

I imagine massive crossover between UC, PIP, housing benefit, attendance allowance, DLA, carers allowance.

Its a racket. Poverty Inc. Similar to the military industrial complex

Bit like cockroaches, theres never just a single claim.

Oh the look on feckless#2 face when she was told that her kid being colour blind did not get any magic bennies.

 

One way to start clawing this back is to make people on benefits, without kids, life so shit.If you are single jobless blokes, this is what you get anyway.

Basically, houses in a HMO - ideally bunkbed. And workfare.

No other European country pays out after 2-5 years.

In the UK< rather get less the longer you are on bennies, people get more. It insane.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

7 hours ago, Starsend said:

I must be the only fucker in the country getting bugger all.

No you're not.

Low emergency interest rates for 13 years must mean lots more will be headed to bennies, no income from their savings which when depleted mean they qualify.

[Democorruptcy]

19 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Still lower highs the whole way down as far as I’m concerned. What do growth stocks do when there’s no growth after all? Recession full steam ahead.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-daly-lets-get-us-interest-rates-25-quickly-we-can-2022-06-01/

Poor Dave, the positive signal on the Nasdaq Daily has already changed back to "No recent chart pattern found".

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

That's a massive Wow!!! right there .Holy smoly.I dodn't know that.

 

8 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I would love to see some Venn diagrams on how those figures overlap.

I imagine massive crossover between UC, PIP, housing benefit, attendance allowance, DLA, carers allowance.

Its a racket. Poverty Inc. Similar to the military industrial complex

The figures are skewed as universal credit includes some JSA claims. However, it shows how the low JSA weekly figure is just for headlines. Hardly anyone is on just that. Only people who are temporarily jobless and actually looking for work receive JSA only. If the upcoming recession leads to widespread unemployment of people who actually want to work the Government will need to increase JSA a lot. As it should do. People unemployed who are looking for work and who have paid in should get survivable unemployment benefit. When the average utilities bill is expected to be over £50 per week £75 JSA is not liveable. I would support a big increase to JSA but freezing everything else.

I don't know what the crossover rates are but you can claim several benefits at once. Unemployment at the enhanced rate plus personal independence payment and obviously housing and council tax. It is a game that people play. All the time the media whines when some of them are still poor despite having substantial incomes.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

I no longer have words for the prices round our way. The job ads are still £10 ph, there is no way to square it.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/121673981#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media0&ref=photoCollage

That is substantially more expensive than something similar in South London. People are not buying that house out of earned income at that price.

[Innkeeper]

Aaaand the government starting to read this thread too? 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/changes-to-benefit-rules-aim-to-tackle-gaps-in-job-market-mz0wtdjtc

Andrew Bailey ‘surprised’ yet again,

Andrew Bailey, the bank’s governor, recently told MPs that the drop in the number of employed people had come as a “surprise”. He speculated that part of the reason why fewer people were returning to work after the pandemic was that they had health issues or were fearful of going back to the office.

 

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

That is substantially more expensive than something similar in South London. People are not buying that house out of earned income at that price.

Precisely, it is being kite flown by 'the church' and is smack in the olde-worlde bit of Christchurch next to the Priory and the Boaty People (not Vietnamese).

[Sugarlips]

Said boaty people will likely need them one day, very low lying.

Yes it’s totally Phil & Krusty heaven there but normal 3 - 4 bed houses a mile or 2 away are still £600,000+ It’s totally out of control now.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/122583182#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/85369983#/?channel=RES_BUY

[Democorruptcy]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its a gift that keeps on giving when nobody understands inflation.Inflation of 66% this cycle on my roadmap,so wages wont be far away.People can be much poorer but still invest more in nominal terms and that means much higher fees.This sector is undervalued as a whole.Lots of mergers i suspect,maybe even a real big one like M+G and Hargreaves.Im buying HL on 25p drops below £8.50.The government might also reform public sector pensions at some point,and i suspect lots of probate money will be leaving property and going the way of HL and Abrdn.

 Roberts argues it will be difficult for the company to overcome demographic trends. “I don’t think that people very often have money with Hargreaves that they survive on,” he said. “It’s not just that they were late to it. It’s a structural problem that may not have a complete solution.

HL aren't mentioned in this

Lawyers file multimillion-pound claim against administrators of Neil Woodford’s fund

However Nick Train recently suggested (as I've thought) that HL's share price might have dipped partly because of their part in the Woodford saga. Though denied in here:

https://www.ftadviser.com/platforms/2022/05/23/woodford-not-the-reason-for-hargreaves-share-price-fall/

HL could do with a little slap on the hand to resolve it?

[Majorpain]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

It'sbeen interesting watching this from a distance.I've  a mate who's in the regulars now(a few Afghan tours as a reservist) and he's jsut got back from somehwere near the Ukraine.He was teling me the young Toms in his unit were mad for it.The SNCO's ,ones who've served in Afghan(still a good few) and Iraq,(less but still a few) had a very different attitude.Some have seen mates lose limbs/die and seen what's happened to the Taliban we've bombed with drones where all you find is body parts.Him and his ilk are telling the young uns not to get too keen to cross the Rubicon on this one.

Overriding feeling I get tlaking with him is the more general 'what the f*** are we doing here?'.There's no game plan for us to move in and more importnantly to get out,particualrly importnant following the monumental messes that followed our woithdrawal in Iraq/Afghan.

Old warning young about dangers, something that's millennia old!  

On the subject of how does it end, something 99% of the population are unaware of is its not Russia vs Ukraine, its Russian Ukrainians (+ Russia) vs Ukrainian Ukrainians (+ Nato and friends), this is not an invasion its a civil war that has been going on since 2014.  Expecting this to end peacefully has no chance of happening by this point, its already been bubbling for 8 years.

This winter will be the tipping point, Europe is involved in a conflict without actually being in a position to finish it which is unpleasant enough in good times but lethal in bad.  Petrol prices are already heading to 200p per litre and Diesel is going nuts in summer, Winter is looking distinctly unpleasant with gas/electric/petrol/diesel/food all looking to be taking more and more disposable income.  The one thing that could really make life difficult for central banks/politicians is yellow vest style protests round Europe, its something I'm keeping an eye on as whilst inflation has been mentioned in my circle, no one is heading that way yet.  Might be something later this year that just needs a spark to ignite some real anger.

[DurhamBorn]

14 hours ago, Roger said:

Can I ask what makes you say this?

I'd have guessed the beneficiaries of probate money will often be using it to supplement their lack of retirement savings or pay off their mortgages (/buy larger property) or buy BTLs (a British obsession) or maintain their lifestyles in the face of above target inflation.

Are you expecting the property porn to disappear from TV and Brits to start favouring investing in the stock market?

The amounts coming in probate will be huge.They will be using it to supplement retirement yes,and to do that they will use the big providers mostly.BTL is almost finished for one man bands,they just dont know it yet.Iv a friend who has just sold 6 BTLs,whole portfolio,hes using half for a bungalow half gone into HL.

My work rests on numbers.Some areas leverage inflation very well,most dont.Wealth managers are an area that should gain.My sector calls usually end up making big money,but things can be very choppy for a while hence slowly building positions.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Innkeeper said:

Aaaand the government starting to read this thread too? 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/changes-to-benefit-rules-aim-to-tackle-gaps-in-job-market-mz0wtdjtc

Andrew Bailey ‘surprised’ yet again,

Andrew Bailey, the bank’s governor, recently told MPs that the drop in the number of employed people had come as a “surprise”. He speculated that part of the reason why fewer people were returning to work after the pandemic was that they had health issues or were fearful of going back to the office.

 

Changes to benefit rules aim to tackle gaps in job market

There are more job vacancies than unemployed people for the first time since records began

People on benefits will have to work longer hours if they want to avoid regular check-ins with job coaches under plans being drawn up by ministers.

As part of a government crackdown designed to tackle shortages in the labour market, Thérèse Coffey, the work and pensions secretary, wants to extend the amount of time claimants have to spend working each week from nine hours to twelve if they are to justify missing regular meetings.

 

The people leaving the labour market tend to be paid blokes, over 50,  working in the private sector, paying the tax for all the oaps, bennies n public sector.

Theyve had enough and seen howlittle theyll get for another 10years slog.

Less reading this thread, more they might have found Tax credits sad face, 7 years after i started it.

38h/w as soon as youngest is 11.

500/m cap on housing benefit.