Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Lightscribe]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

A huge part of the housing problem is public sector workers buying BTLs,its almost the law they use their 25% pension lump sum for it.Im convinced they will be burned,but the government seems intent on instead collapsing the entire system.I dont think they have any understanding of how their direction in macro terms means almost certain collapse.They are trying to fight the price signals by doubling down.Incredible really,but the left have control with their great reset agenda sadly.

Privately owned BTL will be burned, they’ve already signalled their intentions towards it and it’s totally incompatible with with the system they’re aiming to achieve.

[Barnsey]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Privately owned BTL will be burned, they’ve already signalled their intentions towards it and it’s totally incompatible with with the system they’re aiming to achieve.

 

[Barnsey]

Mr Brexit says inflation has peaked and will drop back to 2% by next summer...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/03/inflation-has-peaked-prepare-soft-landing/

The UK may be a laggard, depending in part on what happens to the energy price cap in the autumn. The official statisticians also still need to decide whether to treat the new £400 discount as a price cut, or just a transfer payment from the Government to consumers.

Nonetheless, I am now ready to stick my neck out again and predict that the consumer price measure of inflation has already peaked, at around 9pc. By the middle of next year, it should be back down close to the 2pc target again in the UK too.

[Barnsey]

If you want to know what the great British public are thinking every day, turn this feature on. Not looking good is it? 

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

Thanks for posting. Talking to an ex landlord Friday. Just sold. He made 55k after tax.  Complaining about paying CGT on his profit and one reason for selling being tax change’s. Watched it and made me grin. Thought I’d share. Cheers.

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thanks for posting. Talking to an ex landlord Friday. Just sold. He made 55k after tax.  Complaining about paying CGT on his profit and one reason for selling being tax change’s. Watched it and made me grin. Thought I’d share. Cheers.

i would love to see people like them slaughtered to poverty, entitled cunts.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

i would love to see people like them slaughtered to poverty, entitled cunts.

Chap is 30+ something. Never seen a recession ( 80’s 90’s style)  Reckoned he was an ex plasterer. Wants to live in the middle of nowhere in the USA further down the line. I have weekly work related meetings with him. 
Yes. I myself think he is self entitled. And a cunt for having no moral compass. Imo.

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I find it incredible the young vote for the left when its those policies that have hit them so hard.Its great though that companies are telling the useless polos now.

If you suggested to a youngster: "Here's a magic wand, wave it and your student debt will be cleared, you'll be able to afford a decent home etc. etc. BUT mass immigration will be undone and benefits will be savagely cut back," I wonder how many would wave it.

[Bricormortis]

The powers that be must be beginning to look back to the covid lockdown zealotry here and stateside and muse to themselves WTF were we thinking. 

 ( Unless you think it was all a cunning plan...personally I wouln't trust Johnstone or Biden with looking after a hamster let alone a cunning plan. )

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

 

Clown world.

Landlord: Lack of rental properties is going to be a disaster for tenants.

Also Landlord: Shelter says one of the biggest causes of homelessness is Landlords evicting tenants so they can sell.

Also Landlord:  Long term tenant served notice so Landlord could house Ukrainian refugee!

 

It always comes back to property is an illiquid and poor investment, no matter how much these guys spin it.  £300k would you get you enough machinery for a decent sized company that would maybe yield you £30-40k a year, but that takes real effort and these idiots would rather tie up £300k for £5-6k a year (or less with Void/damage/repairs).  

[AlfredTheLittle]

They've recently spoken about reducing CGT to encourage landlords to sell up. I'd leave it as it currently is, but announce that in 12 months time it's going to double on property. That would get them selling quickly.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

i would love to see people like them slaughtered to poverty, entitled cunts.

That’s one thing that this cycle will bring that will be an absolute positive. Krustie and Phil will never see light of day again (like when they went into hiding in 2008) hopefully taking Martin Lewis with them. 

[Democorruptcy]

59 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

They've recently spoken about reducing CGT to encourage landlords to sell up. I'd leave it as it currently is, but announce that in 12 months time it's going to double on property. That would get them selling quickly.

Where I am, BTL has shifted into holiday lets. I'd like to see a CGT on properties sold that were not used as residential i.e. second homes or holiday lets. Say 50%, 75% then 100% over the next 3 years, to see a few sell quickly.

[manservantjerkins]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Clown world.

Landlord: Lack of rental properties is going to be a disaster for tenants.

Also Landlord: Shelter says one of the biggest causes of homelessness is Landlords evicting tenants so they can sell.

Also Landlord:  Long term tenant served notice so Landlord could house Ukrainian refugee!

 

It always comes back to property is an illiquid and poor investment, no matter how much these guys spin it.  £300k would you get you enough machinery for a decent sized company that would maybe yield you £30-40k a year, but that takes real effort and these idiots would rather tie up £300k for £5-6k a year (or less with Void/damage/repairs).  

Not to mention that you'd (hopefully) be doing something useful/productive as opposed to just complaining about tenants constantly   BTL is just so fucking boring

(agreeing with you btw)

[Democorruptcy]

Hargreaves Lansdown bets on ‘hybrid’ financial advice to keep aspiring retirees on board

[Democorruptcy]

Japan's new Stablecoin law:

Quote

 

The upper house of Japan’s parliament on Friday passed a bill that essentially defined stablecoins as digital currencies, imposed a mandatory link with the yen and enshrined the right to redeem them at face value.

The legal structure will come into effect in 2023, with the FSA expected to clarify the rules for stablecoin issuers in the coming months. Analysts said the legal framework may make it difficult for foreign players to enter the market.

Under the new legal definition in Japan, the issuance of stablecoins will be restricted to banks, trust companies and certain licensed money transfer agents.

The move echoed the FSA’s successful push in 2017 for Japan to become the first major economy to recognise bitcoin as a currency. It shortly afterwards became the first government to issue formal operating licences to crypto exchanges.

Japan’s official legitimisation of bitcoin triggered a significant early boost in its market value, though the FSA’s enthusiasm was damped in late 2017 after customers of the Tokyo-based exchange Coincheck lost $530mn in a digital heist.

Ahead of the bill’s passage, Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp outlined plans to issue its own stablecoin, called Progmat Coin

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F7f8130e9-abfa-407b-b04f-2f9f5e47d0df

 

 

[Errol]

Gold backed coins are coming from mitsubishi.

[Lightscribe]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Japan's new Stablecoin law:

 

Another alarm pointer to those thinking that crypto was a flash-in-the-pan that will snuffed out with the end of the cycle. Nope it’s here to stay.

[DurhamBorn]

50 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hargreaves Lansdown bets on ‘hybrid’ financial advice to keep aspiring retirees on board

Its a gift that keeps on giving when nobody understands inflation.Inflation of 66% this cycle on my roadmap,so wages wont be far away.People can be much poorer but still invest more in nominal terms and that means much higher fees.This sector is undervalued as a whole.Lots of mergers i suspect,maybe even a real big one like M+G and Hargreaves.Im buying HL on 25p drops below £8.50.The government might also reform public sector pensions at some point,and i suspect lots of probate money will be leaving property and going the way of HL and Abrdn.

 Roberts argues it will be difficult for the company to overcome demographic trends. “I don’t think that people very often have money with Hargreaves that they survive on,” he said. “It’s not just that they were late to it. It’s a structural problem that may not have a complete solution.

[spygirl]

16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Telegraph reading the thread again.100% they are getting lots of their ideas from here.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/02/benefits-britain-back-condemning-millions-dependency/

They miss one thing though.Lots of people retiring early etc because they are sick of paying for the bennies.

 

The problem lies with the Brits. The low unemployment claim is a mirage. Britain has, in fact, been suffering a period of mass joblessness as big as any in our recent history. The proportion of people who are neither in work or looking for it is higher now than it was in the mid-1970s. More than five million people were claiming out-of-work benefits at the last count – a figure as big as the population of Scotland. But many of them don’t count as unemployed, because they’re not looking for jobs. So – presto! – they vanish from the national debate.

This overall figure masks horrific local blackspots. In Blackpool, official figures show 26 per cent on out-of-work benefits. In Middlesbrough it was 23 per cent, in Hartlepool 22 per cent, in Manchester, it’s 18 per cent. All of these places have thousands of jobs going, which makes the joblessness all the less defensible. These official out-of-work figures will, of course, include the long-term sick and they are always six months out-of-date. Things will have improved by now, a bit. But the general problem (and scandal) remains

 

The LA n papers always report fugures like '5% unemployment'.

You rarely see figures like this which  cortectly, count the number of working age people relying on one bennie or another for their income.

The actual number is even worse as there will be about 20% 'working' in public sector jobs, targetted at 'enabling' the dossers - nhs, la, social workers etc.

5 years contribution before you claim any brnefit. Payments capped at 2 years. Hostel for single parents, workfare, no cash benefits.

 

 

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

i would love to see people like them slaughtered to poverty, entitled cunts.

From a post on TOS

https://houseprices.io/?q=West+Wear+Street%2C+Sunderland%2C

[Boon]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

From a post on TOS

https://houseprices.io/?q=West+Wear+Street%2C+Sunderland%2C

It is impressive that so many have changed hands recently. Wanted to search for what it looked like and there was this explaining the stupid initial prices - in 2007 you probably could have gotten a flat in London for same.

https://www.propertytribes.com/btl-in-sunderland-t-127640770.html

Also another interesting thing is that service charge + ground rent runs to nearly £3.5k a year. I can bet this started low and ended up taking the piss. If it started at £100 and the increase was 8% a year most people would not know that after 15 years the charge would be £330.

High service charge blocks don't really work with low value places. If this is a case where there is no chance of residents getting right to manage (too many uninterested BTL leaseholders) then good chance the value will keep on declining as the charges go up.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

 

The problem lies with the Brits. The low unemployment claim is a mirage. Britain has, in fact, been suffering a period of mass joblessness as big as any in our recent history. The proportion of people who are neither in work or looking for it is higher now than it was in the mid-1970s. More than five million people were claiming out-of-work benefits at the last count – a figure as big as the population of Scotland. But many of them don’t count as unemployed, because they’re not looking for jobs. So – presto! – they vanish from the national debate.

This overall figure masks horrific local blackspots. In Blackpool, official figures show 26 per cent on out-of-work benefits. In Middlesbrough it was 23 per cent, in Hartlepool 22 per cent, in Manchester, it’s 18 per cent. All of these places have thousands of jobs going, which makes the joblessness all the less defensible. These official out-of-work figures will, of course, include the long-term sick and they are always six months out-of-date. Things will have improved by now, a bit. But the general problem (and scandal) remains

 

The LA n papers always report fugures like '5% unemployment'.

You rarely see figures like this which  cortectly, count the number of working age people relying on one bennie or another for their income.

The actual number is even worse as there will be about 20% 'working' in public sector jobs, targetted at 'enabling' the dossers - nhs, la, social workers etc.

5 years contribution before you claim any brnefit. Payments capped at 2 years. Hostel for single parents, workfare, no cash benefits.

 

 

Thinking, even his dire 5m figure is too low.

Theres 6m in UC, 4m of which are single parents.

UC civers what youd count as dole.

To that youve got the pro DLA crew.

Number of claimants

State Pension

12,452,000

Universal Credit

5,806,000

Housing Benefit

2,776,000

Personal Independence Payment

2,773,000

Employment and Support Allowance

1,784,000

Attendance Allowance

1,514,000

Pension Credit

1,420,000

Disability Living Allowance

1,347,000

Carer’s Allowance

1,304,000

Income Support

217,000

Jobseeker’s Allowance

137,000

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwp-benefits-statistics-february-2022/dwp-benefits-statistics-february-2022

I was wrong JSA is still start from UC.

 

 

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Boon said:

It is impressive that so many have changed hands recently. Wanted to search for what it looked like and there was this explaining the stupid initial prices - in 2007 you probably could have gotten a flat in London for same.

https://www.propertytribes.com/btl-in-sunderland-t-127640770.html

Also another interesting thing is that service charge + ground rent runs to nearly £3.5k a year. I can bet this started low and ended up taking the piss. If it started at £100 and the increase was 8% a year most people would not know that after 15 years the charge would be £330.

High service charge blocks don't really work with low value places. If this is a case where there is no chance of residents getting right to manage (too many uninterested BTL leaseholders) then good chance the value will keep on declining as the charges go up.

About 10 years ago I remember talking to a bloke who said his retirement flat in a McCarthy & Stone building was dirt cheap at £60k. When I asked him what the annual service charge was he said just over £3k. When it was built they had installed a live-in manager, their wage inflated the charges, but once established the manager was removed, their flat was sold, without reducing the charges. The Pension Credit bill must be soaring with service charges on retirement complexes. Presumbly the same for service charges for those on housing benefit for people not yet at retirement age.

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

About 10 years ago I remember talking to a bloke who said his retirement flat in a McCarthy & Stone building was dirt cheap at £60k. When I asked him what the annual service charge was he said just over £3k. When it was built they had installed a live-in manager, their wage inflated the charges, but once established the manager was removed, their flat was sold, without reducing the charges. The Pension Credit bill must be soaring with service charges on retirement complexes. Presumbly the same for service charges for those on housing benefit for people not yet at retirement age.

Theyd have billed for an on site manager.

Whether one was actually present and CRB checked is another thing ...