Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Old warning young about dangers, something that's millennia old!  

On the subject of how does it end, something 99% of the population are unaware of is its not Russia vs Ukraine, its Russian Ukrainians (+ Russia) vs Ukrainian Ukrainians (+ Nato and friends), this is not an invasion its a civil war that has been going on since 2014.  Expecting this to end peacefully has no chance of happening by this point, its already been bubbling for 8 years.

This winter will be the tipping point, Europe is involved in a conflict without actually being in a position to finish it which is unpleasant enough in good times but lethal in bad.  Petrol prices are already heading to 200p per litre and Diesel is going nuts in summer, Winter is looking distinctly unpleasant with gas/electric/petrol/diesel/food all looking to be taking more and more disposable income.  The one thing that could really make life difficult for central banks/politicians is yellow vest style protests round Europe, its something I'm keeping an eye on as whilst inflation has been mentioned in my circle, no one is heading that way yet.  Might be something later this year that just needs a spark to ignite some real anger.

No, tipping point will be Putin dying - hes proper poorly - or a band if Silovec rising against him and Putin having an accident, maybe visdting troops.

It really isnt going well for Russia. Theyve lost so much kit its embarassing.

 

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

No, tipping point will be Putin dying - hes proper poorly - or a band if Silovec rising against him and Putin having an accident, maybe visdting troops.

It really isnt going well for Russia. Theyve lost so much kit its embarassing.

 

I honestly think Putin is winning the Kinetic War and the Economic War.

The West is winning the Propaganda War but who cares about that.

[Virgil Caine]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

I honestly think Putin is winning the Kinetic War and the Economic War.

The West is winning the Propaganda War but who cares about that.

The usual winners of wars are the ones who don’t get involved in the fighting or at least not until the result is virtually decided. Worked for the USA in the 20th century.

[spygirl]

15 hours ago, Roger said:

Can I ask what makes you say this?

I'd have guessed the beneficiaries of probate money will often be using it to supplement their lack of retirement savings or pay off their mortgages (/buy larger property) or buy BTLs (a British obsession) or maintain their lifestyles in the face of above target inflation.

Are you expecting the property porn to disappear from TV and Brits to start favouring investing in the stock market?

 

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The amounts coming in probate will be huge.They will be using it to supplement retirement yes,and to do that they will use the big providers mostly.BTL is almost finished for one man bands,they just dont know it yet.Iv a friend who has just sold 6 BTLs,whole portfolio,hes using half for a bungalow half gone into HL.

My work rests on numbers.Some areas leverage inflation very well,most dont.Wealth managers are an area that should gain.My sector calls usually end up making big money,but things can be very choppy for a while hence slowly building positions.

Probate is happening after 20 years of expensive and daft finsec fuckwittery.

Id hazard - and I *really* like to know exact figures - that ftbs buying are outnumbered 5x by probate sales locally.

Theres little money in buying houses.

Theres is in selling 55+ variations on ER.

Rates will rise and - poof! 

Good Afternoon. Im Michael wet Lewis. Today on  Moneybox we are looking at the scandsl of equity release.

Now Wayne, you took out 200k on a 600k house. Now theres no equity left to leave to your children.

Yes Martin. Noone explained compounding interest to me ....

 

[Pip321]

Just been catching up with a friend in the building trade. Decorator with a small team but commercial and fairly substantial turnover (schools etc).

Of course this is fairly geographical restricted viewpoint but in this town he says the self employed over 50 have either given up and gone on benefits (with maybe very light casual work on the side) or have got used to the grants and loans and are spending. Some are spending on vans etc to reduce tax because they don’t want to pay for those who have gone onto benefits…oh, the irony.

I am all for a safety net but things are getting worrying. What is worse by the look of the data the majority of money spent on benefits are pensions. I know a couple of people who gave up work and are financially independent so are paying £800 pa into voluntary national insurance to ensure they get the full pension….and if that becomes means tested they are the ones who will get really shafted.

Housing benefit is another huge cost…it’s a difficult pill to swallow politically but house prices need sorting. Gas and leccy are causing issues but housing has seen shocking affordability. 

Tax should be simple, benefits should be simple, these convoluted processes and systems muddy the waters for political effect and cost everyone a fortune.

Checked the news and with my decorator mate….sorted, it’s all Putins fault apparently. 🤦🏻‍♂️

 

[Lightscribe]

https://initiatives.weforum.org/defining-and-building-the-metaverse
 

So when do we resort to going ‘all in’ on Meta? 
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-2022-portfolio-top-131418903.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADMx2q-v1LTtYOrcuEORvY2rIeRQDnW9pCySNYa6YkkN4zG024gjQFolkaR6GMTe_Js0oVdJQtxJi-kfVyJQ07BcGYqe33G2CW4BjhFL8xfEv9zLVbofkvUcaLBHlqp8q3hUo2OjGuS_25zh_TQczTVj6B1yNrOylANIBf_4R6Xn

[Animal Spirits]

Royal Mail to deliver your parcels on a SUNDAY in bid to dominate the online shopping battleground

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10863397/Royal-Mails-masterplan-Sunday-parcel-boom.html

Also, I see the threads favourite share is STORMING back into the FTSE 100:

https://www.ftserussell.com/press/ftse-uk-index-series-annual-review-june-2022

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

The West is winning the Propaganda War but...

...only within their own borders!

[M S E Refugee]

51 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

...only within their own borders!

I love reminding the NPC's at Work how fantastic the sanctions are against Russia whenever one of them complains about inflation.

[Errol]

56 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

...only within their own borders!

Agreed. The West is preaching to the converted. Most outside the West don't agree at all.

[janch]

4 hours ago, Majorpain said:

The one thing that could really make life difficult for central banks/politicians is yellow vest style protests round Europe, its something I'm keeping an eye on as whilst inflation has been mentioned in my circle, no one is heading that way yet.  Might be something later this year that just needs a spark to ignite some real anger.

This is where I miss the RT TV channel as they were the only channel which regularly reported on the yellow vest protests in France.  I doubt they will have stopped as the French have much to complain about; same as here really except they have more of a history of being bolshie.  They also have a history of strikes and I can see that becoming a thing here as well unless employers up wages to keep up with inflation.  Otherwise more and more will take the pt work/benefit route.

Al Jazeera are the next best (Freeview) station for what appears to be independent news and also it's worldwide.  The MSM here all pump out the same propaganda except for some of GBNews.  I lke to keep an eye on what is reported on the beeb etc even if I hardly believe a word of it.

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, janch said:

This is where I miss the RT TV channel as they were the only channel which regularly reported on the yellow vest protests in France.  I doubt they will have stopped as the French have much to complain about; same as here really except they have more of a history of being bolshie.  They also have a history of strikes and I can see that becoming a thing here as well unless employers up wages to keep up with inflation.  Otherwise more and more will take the pt work/benefit route.

Al Jazeera are the next best (Freeview) station for what appears to be independent news and also it's worldwide.  The MSM here all pump out the same propaganda except for some of GBNews.  I lke to keep an eye on what is reported on the beeb etc even if I hardly believe a word of it.

Because the West is so corrupt and dishonest RT don't really need to use much in the way of propaganda, they can just tell the truth to make the West look bad.

[Bricormortis]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

HL aren't mentioned in this

Lawyers file multimillion-pound claim against administrators of Neil Woodford’s fund

However Nick Train recently suggested (as I've thought) that HL's share price might have dipped partly because of their part in the Woodford saga. Though denied in here:

https://www.ftadviser.com/platforms/2022/05/23/woodford-not-the-reason-for-hargreaves-share-price-fall/

HL could do with a little slap on the hand to resolve it?

Yep I expect Cathy Wood is bricking it and all.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Just been catching up with a friend in the building trade. Decorator with a small team but commercial and fairly substantial turnover (schools etc).

Of course this is fairly geographical restricted viewpoint but in this town he says the self employed over 50 have either given up and gone on benefits (with maybe very light casual work on the side) or have got used to the grants and loans and are spending. Some are spending on vans etc to reduce tax because they don’t want to pay for those who have gone onto benefits…oh, the irony.

I am all for a safety net but things are getting worrying. What is worse by the look of the data the majority of money spent on benefits are pensions. I know a couple of people who gave up work and are financially independent so are paying £800 pa into voluntary national insurance to ensure they get the full pension….and if that becomes means tested they are the ones who will get really shafted.

Housing benefit is another huge cost…it’s a difficult pill to swallow politically but house prices need sorting. Gas and leccy are causing issues but housing has seen shocking affordability. 

Tax should be simple, benefits should be simple, these convoluted processes and systems muddy the waters for political effect and cost everyone a fortune.

Checked the news and with my decorator mate….sorted, it’s all Putins fault apparently. 🤦🏻‍♂️

 

Housing benefit is high because it goes to the owners of property. Directly to landlords and indirectly through higher property values.

The idiotic state of UK benefits was known about since Gordon Brown and the trouble it would cause predicted at the time. The helping hand is all well and good. Teach a man a skill and he can sell his labour to put food on the table. Put a man on benefits and all he will do, on average, is spend money. Benefits, as arranged now, are a money recycling scheme. Taking tax from the middle and giving it to the bottom so that they can spend as much as the middle. Placid creatures of the state. George Osborne tried to do something about this but gave up because the media found some people who would have to get a job or be worse off. Which was the whole point.

I don't think anyone has looked at training. Something that can turn lives around. This has been quasi-privatised in a sort of fascist money extraction scheme. A public private debt factory designed to keep people down.

I'm all for helping out those who genuinely cannot work and those who have temporarily lost employment. The trouble is that measures such as relative poverty require benefits to be as lucrative as basic employment. Perhaps this can be reformed by assigning a value to free time?

If something is Putin's fault perhaps ask why we were reliant on Putin?

[Virgil Caine]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Just been catching up with a friend in the building trade. Decorator with a small team but commercial and fairly substantial turnover (schools etc).

Of course this is fairly geographical restricted viewpoint but in this town he says the self employed over 50 have either given up and gone on benefits (with maybe very light casual work on the side) or have got used to the grants and loans and are spending. Some are spending on vans etc to reduce tax because they don’t want to pay for those who have gone onto benefits…oh, the irony.

I am all for a safety net but things are getting worrying. What is worse by the look of the data the majority of money spent on benefits are pensions. I know a couple of people who gave up work and are financially independent so are paying £800 pa into voluntary national insurance to ensure they get the full pension….and if that becomes means tested they are the ones who will get really shafted.

Housing benefit is another huge cost…it’s a difficult pill to swallow politically but house prices need sorting. Gas and leccy are causing issues but housing has seen shocking affordability. 

Tax should be simple, benefits should be simple, these convoluted processes and systems muddy the waters for political effect and cost everyone a fortune.

Checked the news and with my decorator mate….sorted, it’s all Putins fault apparently. 🤦🏻‍♂️

 

Even factoring in the post war baby boom the U.K. does not have an unusually large number of pensioners compared to most other western countries. What makes the U.K. different is the large number of economically inactive people between 16 and 64 in Britain which is now up to 8 million.  

[Yadda yadda yadda]

24 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

Even factoring in the post war baby boom the U.K. does not have an unusually large number of pensioners compared to most other western countries. What makes the U.K. different is the large number of economically inactive people between 16 and 64 in Britain which is now up to 8 million.  

Is that unusual compared to Spain or Italy or even France?

This link is out of date but it suggests that it is/was worse in most of Europe. What might be different is the cost.

https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/blog/the-hidden-potential-of-europes-economically-inactive

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I honestly think Putin is winning the Kinetic War and the Economic War.

The West is winning the Propaganda War but who cares about that.

Re cyber war, I was just thinking the double bank holiday going into a weekend would be a great time to attack the banking system? Your Monday morning balance is £0.00

[M S E Refugee]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Re cyber war, I was just thinking the double bank holiday going into a weekend would be a great time to attack the banking system? Your Monday morning balance is £0.00

£0.00 balance would be a fantastic result for most people in this Country.

[DurhamBorn]

As we have been saying

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/public-sector-pensions-soar-10pc-private-pots-crash/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

Coppers in my close will all get a 10% pension increase.The two bennies will get 10% (one of them has had a huge Uber Eats delivery every day this week),the workers will get a few percent plus taxed much higher due to tax allowance freeze.

Some ex public sector will see increases bigger than a lot of private sector pensions total income.

Pretty obvious now the governments plan is simply to steal everyones wealth to give to those on the government tit.

State-backed Nest, which has 10 million savers, has lost 6.4pc over the past six months.Nest and Now Pensions declined to comment.

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Is that unusual compared to Spain or Italy or even France?

This link is out of date but it suggests that it is/was worse in most of Europe. What might be different is the cost.

https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/blog/the-hidden-potential-of-europes-economically-inactive

I think there are a variety of factors. The expansion of further education under Blair/Brown means  somewhere in the region of 2 million potential workers over 18 are locked up in full time education. The other main structural problem is the large numbers of people on long term non contributory benefits which are not available in a lot of countries.  In addition the U.K. pays lots of in work benefits (employers subsidies)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47623277#:~:text=Paying benefits to people of working age is,£120bn that is spent on benefits for pensioners.

Despite the demographics showing a rise in the number of pensioners it is working age benefits that have actually grown fastest in the UK

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Just now, Virgil Caine said:

I think there are a variety of factors. The expansion of further education under Blair/Brown means  somewhere in the region of 2 million potential workers over 18 are locked up in full time education. The other main structural problem is the large numbers of people on long term non contributory benefits which are not available in a lot of countries.  In addition the U.K. pays list of in work benefits (employers subsidies)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47623277#:~:text=Paying benefits to people of working age is,£120bn that is spent on benefits for pensioners.

Despite the demographics showing a rise in the number of pensioners it is working age benefits that have actually grown fastest in the UK

 

Good point on underemployment subsidised by the taxpayer of the future.

[BWW]

Just now, janch said:

This is where I miss the RT TV channel as they were the only channel which regularly reported on the yellow vest protests in France.  I doubt they will have stopped as the French have much to complain about; same as here really except they have more of a history of being bolshie.  They also have a history of strikes and I can see that becoming a thing here as well unless employers up wages to keep up with inflation.  Otherwise more and more will take the pt work/benefit route.

Al Jazeera are the next best (Freeview) station for what appears to be independent news and also it's worldwide.  The MSM here all pump out the same propaganda except for some of GBNews.  I lke to keep an eye on what is reported on the beeb etc even if I hardly believe a word of it.

It was remarkable that when reporting the French police behaviour against Liverpool fans, no-one pointed out that they regularly [weekly still?] do this at the yellow vest protests. I suspect jounalists just don't know. They're so ill informed and living in their own little world, they actually believe the tripe they pump out.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The two bennies will get 10% (one of them has had a huge Uber Eats delivery every day this week)

People who don't work yet don't cook either. State of it.

[M S E Refugee]

My Maths is a bit sketchy but I think £100 of Copper 2 pences are worth around £268 scrap.

I did save them a few years ago but got sick of waiting for financial armageddon and spent them.

[Agent ZigZag]

50 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Pretty obvious now the governments plan is simply to steal everyones wealth to give to those on the government tit.

Pretty depressing. The question I ask myself is will the establishment be able to keep the UK afloat by following a high tax plan on the population and for how long. Answering my own question I think they will be able to pull it off but for how long I don't know as that would require some data and Maths input. 

In light of this I was sitting on the fence as to where I was to direct the last of my capital SIpp or ISA. I am now inclined to lean towards my isa in view of tax allowance now frozen till 2025 I think.