Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

London of course a different mattter…I see real falls there 

London peaked around 4 years ago, it has been small falls per year since. The money has gone out to the shires.

I would hazard a guess that London will be up in 12 months.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

The appetite for housing round us (N York’s) is still balmy both rental and sales…..do you see real falls, value inflated away or rather a softening of actual prices. I am finding it difficult to read. London of course a different mattter…I see real falls there 

Real falls,then inflated away.I think BTL with leverage over 60% is in serious trouble here.Of course some will depend on if they increase local housing allowance or not with inflation,they might not.I think without bennies and immigration houses would be cut in half or more.

[Errol]

46 minutes ago, baffledbyzirp said:

precious metals are difficult to store and sell

Just a correction on this - precious metals are neither difficult to store nor hard to sell. 

1 million in gold fits in a shoebox. If you can walk to a post office and post stuff you can sell gold to a wide range of dealers without using a computer or even talking to anyone. The money from the sale goes into the account you nominate within days.

Gold is one of the most liquid assets on the planet.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Re Housing prices and previous dips. Following the GFC housing continued to rise and topped out in Q1 2009, more than 6 months after Lehman's (15th Sept 2008). It is a lagging indicator and reluctant to quick change lower because sales that occur take 3 months to process. Sellers are also reluctant to reduce prices, especially if doing so crystalizes a real or imaginary fiscal loss. Thus prices go up more quickly than they go down. Remember also that the credit crunch had influenced lending for a year prior to the Lehman's event.

The mortgage portfolio inherited by the government following bailing out Northern Rock generated a handsome profit as the vast majority of mortgagors repaid their monthly debts on time. Repossessed homes were also easy to resell. The key issue is interest rates rather than quantum. If we go to 5+% the entire edifice could collapse. However, if rates are suppressed, the market could continue to thrive. Where else are people going to stash all the funny money and financialised wealth generated by printing and asset bubbles? Crypto is bust, growth stocks look wobbly, precious metals are difficult to store and sell, government bonds are puny, corporate bonds are a lottery ticket and cash is going backwards at 10% p.a. 

Regarding the question about further possible attempts to boost the economy via stimulus cheques. Our chancellor did precisely that last week while Biden is talking about forgiving student debt in the US. The total figure exceeds $1.7 Tr. To put that into perspective this is approximately twice the TARP fund agreed in 2008 to 'save the world'. In addition, debtors have had repayment holidays due to Covid, greatly impacting levels of disposable income among graduates since 2020.

Governments around the world face two options;

1. Do the right thing which will cause recession and enormous suffering but allow the system to correct, or,

2. Do the wrong thing which will deflect criticism onto the next schmuck and allow the fairy tale one last chapter by reach for the lever that operates the printing presses.

My money is on door number 2.

 

 

 

Mine 2.

 

They're desperately trying to maintain their own wealth at all costs. 

 

Interest rates says we're right

 

 

These people are either insane, evil or corrupt as hell

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Real falls,then inflated away.I think BTL with leverage over 60% is in serious trouble here.Of course some will depend on if they increase local housing allowance or not with inflation,they might not.I think without bennies and immigration houses would be cut in half or more.

If btl is in trouble then that's pretty much the uk property ponzi gone 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

London peaked around 4 years ago, it has been small falls per year since. The money has gone out to the shires.

I would hazard a guess that London will be up in 12 months.

Like Sydney and Toronto 😂😂😂

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

The cat is out of the bag, the Scottish Dude and Jimmy are onto the same thing, an unusual video for Jimmy.

 

Iv ordered some more Finasteride just in case,iv 18 months worth,but another 6 months ordered.UKMEDS have a 10% discount on this weekend as well JUBILEE10 is the code,very good price.I cant run out of Fin or id go crazy.Im going to go through all my vits etc,its tricky getting too many due to use by dates,though you can add a year on minimum to those.

Iv actually noticed a lot of the things i buy have discounts on,looks like a rush for cashflow and the last hurrah.

[GTM]

58 minutes ago, Errol said:

Just a correction on this - precious metals are neither difficult to store nor hard to sell. 

1 million in gold fits in a shoebox. If you can walk to a post office and post stuff you can sell gold to a wide range of dealers without using a computer or even talking to anyone. The money from the sale goes into the account you nominate within days.

Gold is one of the most liquid assets on the planet.

As my wife said after an advert on the radio offering to buy people's  gold, "we're doing the opposite, we are buying". 😂 

[Castlevania]

56 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv ordered some more Finasteride just in case,iv 18 months worth,but another 6 months ordered.UKMEDS have a 10% discount on this weekend as well JUBILEE10 is the code,very good price.I cant run out of Fin or id go crazy.Im going to go through all my vits etc,its tricky getting too many due to use by dates,though you can add a year on minimum to those.

Iv actually noticed a lot of the things i buy have discounts on,looks like a rush for cashflow and the last hurrah.

Getting hair envy? 

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, leonardratso said:

hey, whos pretending to be a chinaman on the telegraph;

Ling is a British surname...

[baffledbyzirp]

10 hours ago, Errol said:

Just a correction on this - precious metals are neither difficult to store nor hard to sell. 

1 million in gold fits in a shoebox. If you can walk to a post office and post stuff you can sell gold to a wide range of dealers without using a computer or even talking to anyone. The money from the sale goes into the account you nominate within days.

Gold is one of the most liquid assets on the planet.

By 'difficult to store', I mean risky if you store at home, costly if you use a safety deposit box, transparent if you insure or buy in bulk from the Royal Mint or reseller who records purchases. PMs are easy to sell but again there are issues of CGT if you do so via official channels depending on whether you have bullion or specie. There is also a possibility that the government may come for your gold as in the US during the 1930s. Finally it is difficult to transfer gold internationally. I was simply pointing out that to many people, storing wealth in their homes would continue to make sense if we enter recession due to inherent problems associated with other media.

[sleepwello'nights]

10 hours ago, Errol said:

 

1 million in gold fits in a shoebox. If you can walk to a post office

The weight of which would be?

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

The weight of which would be?

Around 21.5 Kg.

[baffledbyzirp]

3 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

The weight of which would be?

1 kg of gold is about the size of a smart phone and costs circa £50,000. By my reckoning you could fit at least 40-50 iPhones in a shoe box so you could possibly get £5,000,000.00 worth in a shoe box but it would weigh 50Kgs. Hence one of the problems shipping or physically carrying large values. Gold is often smuggled into India to avoid import levies but mules have limited carrying capacity.

[DoINeedOne]

1 hour ago, baffledbyzirp said:

By 'difficult to store', I mean risky if you store at home, costly if you use a safety deposit box, transparent if you insure or buy in bulk from the Royal Mint or reseller who records purchases. PMs are easy to sell but again there are issues of CGT if you do so via official channels depending on whether you have bullion or specie. There is also a possibility that the government may come for your gold as in the US during the 1930s. Finally it is difficult to transfer gold internationally. I was simply pointing out that to many people, storing wealth in their homes would continue to make sense if we enter recession due to inherent problems associated with other media.

Buy sovereigns or Britannias they are CGT free but that can change like anything 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-61617295

 

They piss 41 million up the wall on a new HQ, then three years later they have to sell it (along with every single other property owned by the council) because they're 750 million in debt.

 

They then buy 30k worth of plants that are now dead because there was nobody to water them after they had to dispense with the 20k a year gardener they hired to do it. Time was that Gladys the secretary would do it.

 

They piss your money up the wall like a drunken sailor, then tell you they need more council tax.

 

I guarantee the daft cunts of Slough vote them back in, ("me dad voted labour") which is why democracy doesn't work.

 

I'd love to run a council comprised of everyone on here. We'd have council tax down to 500 quid a year with no loss of services. 

 

"You want 250k for transgender dance classes? Fuck off you freak".

[DoINeedOne]

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-61617295

 

They piss 41 million up the wall on a new HQ, then three years later they have to sell it (along with every single other property owned by the council) because they're 750 million in debt.

 

They then buy 30k worth of plants that are now dead because there was nobody to water them after they had to dispense with the 20k a year gardener they hired to do it. Time was that Gladys the secretary would do it.

 

They piss your money up the wall like a drunken sailor, then tell you they need more council tax.

 

I guarantee the daft cunts of Slough vote them back in, ("me dad voted labour") which is why democracy doesn't work.

 

I'd love to run a council comprised of everyone on here. We'd have council tax down to 500 quid a year with no loss of services. 

 

"You want 250k for transgender dance classes? Fuck off you freak".

Think I may of posted this before always worth re-reading 

 

I always find councils abit like myself have some crazy ideas 

Difference is I stop when I realise it won’t work or will cost too much money 

But then it’s easier to spend other peoples money 

[baffledbyzirp]

6 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Think I may of posted this before always worth re-reading 

 

I always find councils abit like myself have some crazy ideas 

Difference is I stop when I realise it won’t work or will cost too much money 

But then it’s easier to spend other peoples money 

If you elect a council leader called Swindlehurst what do you expect? What was his deputy called? Daylight-Robbery. You couldn't make it up. 

[Pip321]

50 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-61617295

 

They piss 41 million up the wall on a new HQ, then three years later they have to sell it (along with every single other property owned by the council) because they're 750 million in debt.

 

They then buy 30k worth of plants that are now dead because there was nobody to water them after they had to dispense with the 20k a year gardener they hired to do it. Time was that Gladys the secretary would do it.

 

They piss your money up the wall like a drunken sailor, then tell you they need more council tax.

 

I guarantee the daft cunts of Slough vote them back in, ("me dad voted labour") which is why democracy doesn't work.

 

I'd love to run a council comprised of everyone on here. We'd have council tax down to 500 quid a year with no loss of services. 

 

"You want 250k for transgender dance classes? Fuck off you freak".

I agree….other than the mentions it’s a Labour and by default suggest a Tory council might be better (I maybe misreading that but it why I keep defending labour). And I also would disagree if you attacked Tory Croydon council for being Tory.

Party politics is a joke. Labour spend money badly and Tories steal it….i generalise of course I am sure we also have dishonest labour and incompetence Tory councillors.😆

It would be a great experiment to have those on here to run the council including me….we would all become corrupt and have family members packing envelops for us as we pay them from expenses at £200k a year. Apparently that’s what happens…like heroine addicts the power becomes all consuming.😆😆

[ThoughtCriminal]

24 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I agree….other than the mentions it’s a Labour and by default suggest a Tory council might be better (I maybe misreading that but it why I keep defending labour). And I also would disagree if you attacked Tory Croydon council for being Tory.

Party politics is a joke. Labour spend money badly and Tories steal it….i generalise of course I am sure we also have dishonest labour and incompetence Tory councillors.😆

It would be a great experiment to have those on here to run the council including me….we would all become corrupt and have family members packing envelops for us as we pay them from expenses at £200k a year. Apparently that’s what happens…like heroine addicts the power becomes all consuming.😆😆

Virtually every council that fucks up on this scale is Labour.

 

I'm not a Tory, they're as corrupt as each other, but we shouldn't ever allow our partisanship to blind us to reality.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

58 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I agree….other than the mentions it’s a Labour and by default suggest a Tory council might be better (I maybe misreading that but it why I keep defending labour). And I also would disagree if you attacked Tory Croydon council for being Tory.

Party politics is a joke. Labour spend money badly and Tories steal it….i generalise of course I am sure we also have dishonest labour and incompetence Tory councillors.😆

It would be a great experiment to have those on here to run the council including me….we would all become corrupt and have family members packing envelops for us as we pay them from expenses at £200k a year. Apparently that’s what happens…like heroine addicts the power becomes all consuming.😆😆

It is the safe councils that are most corrupt and have the most stupid spending ideas. Those that are closer tend to have higher turnover of councillors, closer scrutiny and they don't feel invulnerable to losing their seats. Labour are worse in my experience but I haven't experienced a Tory council. Westminster was clearly a rotten Tory borough and Labour will probably be good there to start with as they'll be new, eager to impress and not complacent.

[CannonFodder]

 

Mike gets it - I originally thought he was a loon but he is growing on me

 

 

[reformed nice guy]

4 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

By 'difficult to store', I mean risky if you store at home, costly if you use a safety deposit box, transparent if you insure or buy in bulk from the Royal Mint or reseller who records purchases. PMs are easy to sell but again there are issues of CGT if you do so via official channels depending on whether you have bullion or specie. There is also a possibility that the government may come for your gold as in the US during the 1930s. Finally it is difficult to transfer gold internationally. I was simply pointing out that to many people, storing wealth in their homes would continue to make sense if we enter recession due to inherent problems associated with other media.

Its risky to store at home but ask a Cypriot about the risk of storing a lot of euros in the bank or anyone with a large amount of cash getting 0.5% interest when inflation is 10%. If you spread it out a multiple locations in the house - under floorboards, loft, sock drawer, garage, safe etc then it minimises loss if robbed.

CGT is £12k. Use your wife, brother, uncle, best friend and you can liquidate easy enough. Do it on either side of the tax year and you could liquidate £120k tax free with 5 people in theory!

Government in 1930s America that confiscated gold had a homogenous, loyal, patriotic and well drilled force filled with WW1 veterns. We have a diverse mob with one part attending Friday prayers, the other part raping, a big lot waving rainbow flags while marching in high heals on a pride festival and the normal ones not giving a fuck due to low pay.

When it comes to transferring internationally, I would rather have a few sovereigns to bribe the custom officers rather than write them an IOU to digitally transfer something.

[BurntBread]

18 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Its risky to store at home but ask a Cypriot about the risk of storing a lot of euros in the bank or anyone with a large amount of cash getting 0.5% interest when inflation is 10%. If you spread it out a multiple locations in the house - under floorboards, loft, sock drawer, garage, safe etc then it minimises loss if robbed.

Just don't do this if you are Indian, or look like you have Indian ancestry, as there are specialist gangs who do burglaries using metal-detectors. It happened to someone I worked with, about 7 years ago. She had her jewellery spread out as you describe (I don't think she had a safe), and they found every bit.

[Joncrete Cungle]

 Buy some fake gold coins from alibaba and leave them in a cheap safe in an easy to find place. Couple of Turkish Market watches and a couple of cheap Elizabeth Duke / Ratners gold or silver rings / necklaces etc.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Mike gets it - I originally thought he was a loon but he is growing on me

 

 

And his Secrets of Money series, after all these years, is still a classic...                                                                                                              https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DyV0OfU3-FU