Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

As always with these people none of them really talk in any detail as to how to protect yourselves, all vague shit like buy gold etc. I'd like to see somebody do some real analysis into what will happen to my BP shares in the event of hyper-inflation / a new currency. There must be plenty of examples in history but nobody ever talks about the things we all want to know.

I think you have to read between the lines a bit.What gromen is actually talking about is a default because that's what coming.He's maybe being polite,doesn't want to get a reputation as a scaremonger etc but that is what he's talking about if you connect the dots.Jubillee/default,Jubillee/default etc.

What runs from a default isn't going to be pleasant and as he otulines in his interview,there is a long history of one ounce of gold buying ten barrels of oil.That's chanigng and as he outlines quite clearly,generally fights over energy resources end in war.

I'm not having a go but if you want real analysis then maybe pay the guy a sub or jsut do it yourself as you are.

As DB alludes below,the key thing to not be in during a hyperifnaltion is cash.

Hyperinflation is a politcal choice and always has been,normally of desperately inadequate govts/leaders.Ours are crap but they're not that crap.More likely is a scenraio where they run inflation at 10-15% and smash bond holders aka pensioners and savers .

list of hyoperinfaltions here.It's quite a rare event given the amount of lunatic govts there are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My last job 85% were in UNITE,nearly all of them voted Tory,I enjoyed telling the shop steward.It wasnt that they were Tory,its just they want welfare sorting,immigration down to a few thousand a year,knife carrying Africans whipped then salted in the public square then dropped off on the Libyan coast.Labour has very little support here.The Tories took the local council estate even and its a rough one.The problem is it takes too long.Even winning a few seats then more could take decades.

Labour and tories have huge structural problems looming.Tory membership is rumoured tio be under 100,000 and average age over 60 ffs.

first past the psot is stacked against new parties.Leicester has 52/54 labour councillors.It's fubar.Cocuncillors earn min £15k,so thats a wall of albour moeny that you have to fight and the opposition don't have any.

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

One share buys 4.5 loaves of Lidl seeded bread.One would buy 4.5 loaves of Lidl seeded bread.Assets have little to fear from a new currency apart from the demand destruction as cash savings are destroyed.You can have a new currency though without changing it.We are getting one now in the UK its called sterling its worth half as much as the last one that was called sterling.The value of it is two sides.How many there are,how many does someone want to sell you an asset,service,goods or commodity.

As Ive said,we're running our lwoest of the lwo cash postions currently despite the fact thatw e're headed into a recession.

Can't believe how quickly they're turning sterling into bog roll.If theyd done it in the time of the coof,they might have been more popular.

[sancho panza]

@JMD never seen that Jurgen before but it masde me laugh.This one was funny as f***.

 

I nkow you're a former Ukip voter like myself.The last bit about the EU/Berlin had me in stitches.

 

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, WICAO said:

I know it's poor form to quote yourself but I've just seen £1 now buys only USD1.182.  The average UK worker really is getting taken for a ride.

Sony are putting up the price of the PS5 everywhere bar the US due to dollar strength.

[Starsend]

41 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

What kind of life would that be, for 20 years? Most on this site would likely be dead.

Well it's better than having a crap life for 20 years AND losing all your wealth. At least you could hand your wealth down to your children.

[Axeman123]

Watching the latest Luke Gromen

20 minutes in so far, and wow on his take on the origins of WW2! (A Berlin to Baghdad railway to circumvent the Royal Navy, and comparison to the Chinese belt and road initiative today).

youtube link for those that prefer it over apple podcasts: 

 

[Starsend]

38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think you have to read between the lines a bit.What gromen is actually talking about is a default because that's what coming.He's maybe being polite,doesn't want to get a reputation as a scaremonger etc but that is what he's talking about if you connect the dots.Jubillee/default,Jubillee/default etc.

What runs from a default isn't going to be pleasant and as he otulines in his interview,there is a long history of one ounce of gold buying ten barrels of oil.That's chanigng and as he outlines quite clearly,generally fights over energy resources end in war.

I'm not having a go but if you want real analysis then maybe pay the guy a sub or jsut do it yourself as you are.

As DB alludes below,the key thing to not be in during a hyperifnaltion is cash.

Hyperinflation is a politcal choice and always has been,normally of desperately inadequate govts/leaders.Ours are crap but they're not that crap.More likely is a scenraio where they run inflation at 10-15% and smash bond holders aka pensioners and savers .

list of hyoperinfaltions here.It's quite a rare event given the amount of lunatic govts there are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

Labour and tories have huge structural problems looming.Tory membership is rumoured tio be under 100,000 and average age over 60 ffs.

first past the psot is stacked against new parties.Leicester has 52/54 labour councillors.It's fubar.Cocuncillors earn min £15k,so thats a wall of albour moeny that you have to fight and the opposition don't have any.

As Ive said,we're running our lwoest of the lwo cash postions currently despite the fact thatw e're headed into a recession.

Can't believe how quickly they're turning sterling into bog roll.If theyd done it in the time of the coof,they might have been more popular.

Agreed. I think he said that it's between ten and thirty barrels of oil so we're pretty much in the middle at the moment. It's a pretty solid relationship though and it's fairly obvious why when you think about it.

I have spent some time trying to find out the details of what happens in a hyperinflation, to various different asset classes. Some are obvious like bonds but others like equities it's surprisingly difficult to find good info.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

He wasn't a number, fools. 

He was a letter.

Why be so binary, get with the progressive times bro!  I mean why couldn't he/she have also been a symbol? And then only on alternate Fridays, after all it's absolutely his/her/etc choice!

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Yes, if they think you can actually pay, when the fixed deal ends you automatically go onto their pay as you go market rate supply.  However, some of the businesses are such a lost cause that the suppliers don't actually want to deal with them at all, when none of the energy companies want to supply you what are you going to do?  This is proper uncharted waters territory.

What actually happens if you tell your current supplier your moving but don’t bother getting a new supplier

[DurhamBorn]

52 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

I'm not sure thats correct DB.

I unserstood the word "bank" came from the Italian word "bancho" which means bench. It's were you sat to discuss terms with the money lenders in medieval times.

 

Interesting,local saying around here still "put it in the bank" about hiding things in hedge banks.Lots of detectorists think the words meaning is very old back to Roman, I guess words develop in different areas for the same process.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Mapper said:

WTF happened to the Germans? They used to be such bastions of practicality and common sense. Or was that just a mirage? Maybe, cheap energy masks national lunacy.

I agree that German day-to-day practical stuff is brilliant. Maybe It's just their grand strategic longer-term ('final') solution planning that tends to skupper them?!    ...current evidence shows they haven't quiet managed to beat that particular foible of the Fatherland!

[Stuey]

12 minutes ago, King Penda said:

What actually happens if you tell your current supplier your moving but don’t bother getting a new supplier

It's the new supplier that instigates the change. 

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, Stuey said:

It's the new supplier that instigates the change. 

So what happens if you tell them your moving and to stop ? But don’t actually move ?

[Stuey]

1 minute ago, King Penda said:

So what happens if you tell them your moving and to stop ? But don’t actually move ?

Basically to industry your request doesn't matter. It's all about what the suppliers do, via dataflows with each other and the central hub.

The new supplier requests to take on your supply. The current supplier says yes or no (they can decline if in a fixed term contract or have outstanding debt).

At transfer, they "handshake" on an agreed meter read. 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

I agree that German day-to-day practical stuff is brilliant. Maybe It's just their grand strategic longer-term ('final') solution planning that tends to skupper them?!    ...current evidence shows they haven't quiet managed to beat that particular foible of the Fatherland!

All i know is back in the day when we used to go to Amsterdam none of the lads liked a German hooker they were like sacks of potatoes and their chit chat boring.You could always tell the German blokes though Heavy metal crumpled t shirts.I spent 30 minutes with a Slovakian one who had about 8 Turks pestering her at the door she leaned over and said to me "your English" and dragged me in.She said she hated Turks and knew i was English because nice clothes and stylish  yeah i still left 30 guilders lighter.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Talk about prophetic. 😂

 

Great film btw, if anyone hasn't seen it.

[Option5]

12 minutes ago, King Penda said:

So what happens if you tell them your moving and to stop ? But don’t actually move ?

You say you're leaving the country and someone called Mrs O5 will be moving in and will choose her own supplier .

Most utilities can't cope with someone moving overseas , unless it's fixed term, they just give up.

[King Penda]

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Talk about prophetic. 😂

 

Great film btw, if anyone hasn't seen it.

I’ve got it some good films in that era 

[SpectrumFX]

12 minutes ago, King Penda said:

I’ve got it some good films in that era 

I watched 3 days of the condor the other night. Cracking film. They don't make them like that anymore.

 

[Noallegiance]

Just now, SpectrumFX said:

I watched 3 days of the condor the other night. Cracking film. They don't make them look that anymore.

 

It's a cracker. The speech at thr end by the FBI dude is sobering.

The Paralax View with Dustin Hoffman is also a good oldie.

[Axeman123]

Some people on here seem to have seen/watched a different Luke Gromen thing to me, based on their reactions to it!

An interesting part IMO, was where he laid out the 3 choices for Europe as he saw it.

1) Pay Putin in Euros

2) Tell the US it will have to sell dollars and buy Euros to releive EU inflation, or

3) Tell the US it will have to sell a lot more LNG to the EU and suffer domestic inflation as a result.

I would rebut these as follows:

1) is effectively already happening, although it is subject to Putin even wanting to sell them the gas.

2) might maybe help, but ultimately no ammount of currency strength will materialise LNG as if by magic and again Putin has to want to supply it.

3) overlooks the simple impossibility of dramatically increasing LNG supply to the extent needed.

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

So ... the great UK employment miracle- see various threads here, on TCs, UCs, based on hordes of single mums working PT in hair n nail salons, inc EU migrants in pizza n burger eateries, with huge tax payer subs, is about to blow up.

Good.

On cue -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11142035/Restaurants-pubs-cafes-shops-small-businesses-forced-close-energy-bills-bite.html

Britain starts to turn out the lights: Restaurants, pubs, butchers, cafes and shops are among small businesses forced to close as soaring energy bills begin to bite

Fears for future of holiday let business in Somerset

Abby McKellar, 46, is considering closing the holiday let business she runs with her husband Matt, 50, over winter in order to stay afloat.

Little Norton Mill, which comprises four self-catering cottages and four apartments in rural Somerset, relies solely on electricity.

In January, their energy bills increased by 70 per cent from £10,000 to £17,000 a year. 

And the couple fear they could spiral further when their fixed deal ends at the beginning of next year.

Abby says: 'To soak up the electricity cost alone, we would have had to increase our prices by 10 per cent this year — and that does not even include all the other costs that are going up.

'If you raise those prices, people will just stop coming. It's a perfect storm.'

 

 

In Droxford, Hampshire, pub landlord Shekhar Nailwal, 45, said he was left 'on his knees' with rocketing fuel, food and alcohol bills. It led to him and his wife, Alex, 39, to take the 'heartbreakingly sad' decision to close their much-loved The White Horse after eight years.

The quaint village pub was well-loved in its local community for its unusual Indian menu served alongside traditional lagers and cosy inn decor, with a sprawling terrace garden.

The closure means Mr and Mrs Nailwal may now have to move their two sons Rudra, 10, and Prem, 14, away from the village they have called home for the best part of a decade. 

Is the beer halal?

No more fancy bollocks fuckwits, turning pubs into eateries.

3 beets. Spit. Sawdust. Crisps.

 

[Stuey]

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

On cue -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11142035/Restaurants-pubs-cafes-shops-small-businesses-forced-close-energy-bills-bite.html

Britain starts to turn out the lights: Restaurants, pubs, butchers, cafes and shops are among small businesses forced to close as soaring energy bills begin to bite

Fears for future of holiday let business in Somerset

Abby McKellar, 46, is considering closing the holiday let business she runs with her husband Matt, 50, over winter in order to stay afloat.

Little Norton Mill, which comprises four self-catering cottages and four apartments in rural Somerset, relies solely on electricity.

In January, their energy bills increased by 70 per cent from £10,000 to £17,000 a year. 

And the couple fear they could spiral further when their fixed deal ends at the beginning of next year.

Abby says: 'To soak up the electricity cost alone, we would have had to increase our prices by 10 per cent this year — and that does not even include all the other costs that are going up.

'If you raise those prices, people will just stop coming. It's a perfect storm.'

 

 

In Droxford, Hampshire, pub landlord Shekhar Nailwal, 45, said he was left 'on his knees' with rocketing fuel, food and alcohol bills. It led to him and his wife, Alex, 39, to take the 'heartbreakingly sad' decision to close their much-loved The White Horse after eight years.

The quaint village pub was well-loved in its local community for its unusual Indian menu served alongside traditional lagers and cosy inn decor, with a sprawling terrace garden.

The closure means Mr and Mrs Nailwal may now have to move their two sons Rudra, 10, and Prem, 14, away from the village they have called home for the best part of a decade. 

Is the beer halal?

No more fancy bollocks fuckwits, turning pubs into eateries.

3 beets. Spit. Sawdust. Crisps.

 

5th September. 

This weekend will be the last hurrah, the one after will show how the rest of the year is going to be. 

[Axeman123]

Macro-economic indicator of used enthusiast cars losing value:

A long way still to go, based on the white Merc with gullwing doors going 115K to 200k, and now down to ~160k. Anyone buying one at 200k to speculate using a HELOC is in a world of hurt I imagine.

(Probably not worth watching just for that though, but interesting to see normies catching up to thread themes)

[Lightly Toasted]

47 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I watched 3 days of the condor the other night. Cracking film. They don't make them like that anymore.

 

"When I was a kid we used to go to the cinema on Saturdays to see a masterpiece, except back then we called them movies."

 

[Innkeeper]

33 minutes ago, spygirl said:

On cue -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11142035/Restaurants-pubs-cafes-shops-small-businesses-forced-close-energy-bills-bite.html

 

Fears for future of holiday let business in Somerset

Abby McKellar, 46, is considering closing the holiday let business she runs with her husband Matt, 50, over winter in order to stay afloat.

Little Norton Mill, which comprises four self-catering cottages and four apartments in rural Somerset, relies solely on electricity.

In January, their energy bills increased by 70 per cent from £10,000 to £17,000 a year. 

And the couple fear they could spiral further when their fixed deal ends at the beginning of next year.

Abby says: 'To soak up the electricity cost alone, we would have had to increase our prices by 10 per cent this year — and that does not even include all the other costs that are going up.

'If you raise those prices, people will just stop coming. It's a perfect storm.'

 

 

My guess is that visitor numbers are well down this year already.  Cornwall aside, the West Country has had a mass of holiday homes appearing in the last two years and from what I can see the number of visitors is well down from normal.  Massive excess of supply and demand shrinking.  

10% isn’t much of an increase considering holiday let prices rocketed about 50% during Covid.....