Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Boon]

What I haven't seen from the news is what it actually translates to for average joe.

People are protected from these prices by means of price caps. Maybe goods will see inflation, just how much?

What kind of household bills are we looking at by the next price cap if this is not resolved?

People ain't gonna be panicing if gas prices keep on going up because the relevance of it isn't being explained.

 

[HousePriceMania]

32 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Indeed but I like the chat surrounding allowing markets to do their thing.

They don't have to raise anything. The market can do it for them.

If you believe that....

[ThoughtCriminal]

Oh well, at least coal isnt insanely expensive. Ah. Bugger. 

 

How much longer can this go on? 

[Errol]

He's right again:

 

Putin blames Europe energy market 'hysteria' on green transition

He told a government meeting on Tuesday that it was vital that the green transition happened smoothly and criticised what he described as "unbalanced decisions" and "drastic steps".

"You see what is happening in Europe. There is hysteria and some confusion in the markets. Why? Because no one is taking it seriously," he said.

"Some people are speculating on climate change issues, some people are underestimating some things, some are starting to cut back on investments in the extractive industries. There needs to be a smooth transition," he said.

He called for the sustainable development of the oil, gas and coal sectors and said it was important that was not neglected.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/putin-blames-european-energy-market-hysteria-green-transition-drive-2021-10-05/

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ok, im calling it: we're absolutely fucked. 

 

Beginning of October and its mild, what are prices going to look like when it's subzero in December? 

Its interesting how he says when natural gas goes parabolic, it rises to whatever price is needed to curtail demand.  This time demand wont be curtailed (to begin....) because governments are keeping a lid on the prices.  

No doubt it will take a breather at $666 as it heads to the moon!

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

I've made laods of msitakes investing,key thing to reflect and learn.Psychology is the big issue.

I remember you debating buying and couldn't work out whether greed or fear was driving you at that time.

My Mum who's in her 70's taught me to buy a FOMO bloc if I was wavering.ie a small bloc that means that at least if they rise I won't get regret.

When teh BK comes,the value won't be in the oilies I suspect but elsewhere.

Yes BP oil price last month was definitely a live and learner for me, though with money and in life in general no matter how many fuck ups i make i never seem to learn!

At the moment, circa 15% of everything i own is in oilies in reality thats a decent enough sum, having 50% is probably not the cleverest idea, though obviously with the benefit of hindsight it would have been wonderful, and covered 1 years schooling for my kid.

But my way of thinking goes with your final sentence, and there will be better opportunities elsewhere, no doubt oilies again if a 1929 esq crash comes along.

Would seem the only time i'm good at investing is in a crash, it certainly makes finding ones bollocks to go all in a lot easier.

 

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

27 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Would seem the only time i'm good at investing is in a crash

There is a poster on this thread that says he rarely buys outside of a crash, I wonder who that person is that was born in Durham?

It's a big lesson I have learnt, be patient and wait for the market to come to you instead.

[HousePriceMania]

LON:MACB 58.76 GBX+6.72 (12.91%)past month 

extends it's winning streaking, 80% BKK must be soon

[Bobthebuilder]

I was going to type a long rant about this, but better to let it speak for itself.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58804607

 

 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its why i own the whole sector mostly and top up any laggards with the divs.I think the whole sector is undervalued by a lot,so im happy to own all the big players,and the smaller ones i use the COMA scores.Consolidtion is hugely bullish for the sector because they wont compete very hard once there are three in each market.

I'm looking at the Telco's every day now the oilies are running.Best value in the market imho,even better than pm Miners.

 

2 hours ago, Boon said:

What I haven't seen from the news is what it actually translates to for average joe.

People are protected from these prices by means of price caps. Maybe goods will see inflation, just how much?

What kind of household bills are we looking at by the next price cap if this is not resolved?

People ain't gonna be panicing if gas prices keep on going up because the relevance of it isn't being explained.

 

If your supplier goes bust,then you're not protected but not all gas is sourced at spot.

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Yes BP oil price last month was definitely a live and learner for me, though with money and in life in general no matter how many fuck ups i make i never seem to learn!

At the moment, circa 15% of everything i own is in oilies in reality thats a decent enough sum, having 50% is probably not the cleverest idea, though obviously with the benefit of hindsight it would have been wonderful, and covered 1 years schooling for my kid.

But my way of thinking goes with your final sentence, and there will be better opportunities elsewhere, no doubt oilies again if a 1929 esq crash comes along.

Would seem the only time i'm good at investing is in a crash, it certainly makes finding ones bollocks to go all in a lot easier.

 

 

 

@DurhamBorn taught me to be more cautious than I was and ladder in.One of the many things I've picked up of thsi thread.I don't always do it well but it's stopped me chasing the market hgiher and jsut settling for what I got at hte price I liked.

[HousePriceMania]

32 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was going to type a long rant about this, but better to let it speak for itself.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58804607

 

 

Get on your peletons I say...

 

[Bobthebuilder]

22 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Get on your peletons I say...

 

Have you seen the little piggies
Crawling in the dirt?
And for all the little piggies
Life is getting worse,
Always having dirt to play around in

Have you seen the bigger piggies
In their starched white shirts?
You will find the bigger piggies
Stirring up the dirt,
Always have clean shirts to play around in

In their styes with all their backing
They don't care what goes on around
In their eyes there's something lacking
What they need's a damn good whacking

Everywhere there's lots of piggies
Living piggy lives
You can see them out for dinner
With their piggy wives
Clutching forks and knives to eat the bacon

One more time

[macca]

11 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

I was referencing Vod's dissapointing performance ongoing since 2017, since when they have lost over half their value. Could spring back eventually.

Well i'm ordering a new phone next week so look out for a spike,, 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was going to type a long rant about this, but better to let it speak for itself.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58804607

"Ms Healey, who is the permanent secretary at Mr Dowden's former department, told a conference last month: "I have a Peloton and I can just get on my bike whenever I have a teeny bit of time.

"That has been a huge benefit to my well-being, the lack of travelling time eating into my day."

Now if only there was a way for this entitled individual to combine cycling and commuting...

[Chewing Grass]

6 minutes ago, AWW said:

"Ms Healey, who is the permanent secretary at Mr Dowden's former department, told a conference last month: "I have a Peloton and I can just get on my bike whenever I have a teeny bit of time.

"That has been a huge benefit to my well-being, the lack of travelling time eating into my day."

Now if only there was a way for this entitled individual to combine cycling and commuting...

If you do Peloton your life is fucking over because you haven't got one.

Anyone got a photo for my notes of Ms Healey to confirm my prejudices?

Edit: Just checked the stock and it was riding a bubble of saddo's.

[AWW]

Standard issue insipid posh bird, wrong side of 40.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, AWW said:

Standard issue posh bitch.

Uuuuuuuuuuurgh, no wonder Peleton's sales have tanked, nothing like the advert.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, AWW said:

Standard issue insipid posh bird, wrong side of 40.

Little piggy with a starched white shirt.

[King of Fools]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Little piggy with a starched white shirt.

Kicking squealing Gucci little piggy.

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It's a big lesson I have learnt, be patient and wait for the market to come to you instead.

Yes definitely the plan, as other than telecoms there doesn't seem to be too much value out there at the moment, and i've a fair bit in telecoms.

[Noallegiance]

OK so commodities are having fun right now.

Can you imagine the leg up when the dollar turns down?

[Bobthebuilder]

12 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Yes definitely the plan, as other than telecoms there doesn't seem to be too much value out there at the moment, and i've a fair bit in telecoms.

Having some skin in the game helps focus the mind, even if it's only 10% of what you plan to invest.

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Having some skin in the game helps focus the mind, even if it's only 10% of what you plan to invest.

Yes, most the SIPP money is spent, got 15k which is about 10% of it in cash for if a dip happens.

House money is 1/3rd in an ISA 2/3rds waiting to be moved to a share trading account in preparation.

Was thinking of buying a £250k house in York, with a £125k mortgage on a 10 year fix @ 2% to hedge my bets, and then renting it out. But i then think its not beyond the realms of possibility that a £250k house could go down to somewhere near £125k if interest rates get to the giddy heights of 2-3%!

 

[Loki]

13 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

OK so commodities are having fun right now.

Can you imagine the leg up when the dollar turns down?

I remember @DurhamBorn saying a while back they need to get it down sharpish, when it was lower than it is now. I wonder if it simply pulling back on the rubber band having it this high for this long

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Yes, most the SIPP money is spent, got 15k which is about 10% of it in cash for if a dip happens.

House money is 1/3rd in an ISA 2/3rds waiting to be moved to a share trading account in preparation.

Was thinking of buying a £250k house in York, with a £125k mortgage on a 10 year fix @ 2% to hedge my bets, and then renting it out. But i then think its not beyond the realms of possibility that a £250k house could go down to somewhere near £125k if interest rates get to the giddy heights of 2-3%!

 

Talking out my arse here, but.

Never try to guess the housing market, it's a beautiful witch bitch, with lovely eyes that never seem to fade.