Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

will the US default on their debt? need the sound for this one 

 

[Lightscribe]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

will the US default on their debt? need the sound for this one 

 

Is that what was meant by the noise in the thread? 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

If I lived nearer I’d fill my boots, although you have to take them all. I’m sure a Dosbodder lurking on here will snap them up.

Now we can all identify each other not only with out of season M&S clothes and pizza ovens, but gas bottles loaded up in every possible space of our 10 year+ cars.

Im buying Reiss and Ted Baker 2nd hand now iv gone upmarket  ,actually been getting some cracking quality stuff about 15% of original cost at the moment,im well stocked up.

Iv had my soup maker out today as well.Id advise all good dosbods frugal types invest in one.Made a broccoli and spinach soup with onion potato, mixed herbs,garlic,cummin salt and pepper and stock.Worked out about £1 and enough for 5 full bowls and freezes great if needed.I get the spinach in the 20p reduced area in Lidl regular and break into smaller portions and freeze it.

 

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Is that what was meant by the noise in the thread? 

maybe but he can fuk off or post something useful 

[Hancock]

Anyone own Norsk Hydro, managed to tag the bottom in 2020, thinking after a circa 300% rise its time to cash in my winnings.

[DurhamBorn]

29 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Anyone own Norsk Hydro, managed to tag the bottom in 2020, thinking after a circa 300% rise its time to cash in my winnings.

I did own,but didnt get many as it was one of my smaller target buys.I was going to add another five figures but split into two telcos that are 11% and 6% up including divis instead.I am very very happy with my profits from the March crash,but still missed a lot of profits as sectors delivered what i expected to be cycle profits in a year while others lagged.Iv sold all Norsk Hydro now.I actually worked on one of their old plants now owned by Ineos last year.

[Hancock]

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I did own,but didnt get many as it was one of my smaller target buys.I was going to add another five figures but split into two telcos that are 11% and 6% up including divis instead.I am very very happy with my profits from the March crash,but still missed a lot of profits as sectors delivered what i expected to be cycle profits in a year while others lagged.Iv sold all Norsk Hydro now.I actually worked on one of their old plants now owned by Ineos last year.

I stuck £1700 in and its now just under £6000, but this an HZM are my big winners and i can't but help feel it'd be good time to cash out. Not that ive anywhere lined up to put the profit for the time being. Might leave £500 in to remind me to jump back in if there is a BK.

 

[jamtomorrow]

51 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Interesting take from Michael Burry (portrayed by Christian Bale in The Big Short):

Do we actively *need* a BK to get velocity moving? Seeing as so many resources are now misallocated to zombie companies just treading water and (to Burry's point) with no room whatsoever to bid up wages.

Time for a bit of creative destruction?

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Do we actively *need* a BK to get velocity moving? Seeing as so many resources are now misallocated to zombie companies just treading water and (to Burry's point) with no room whatsoever to bid up wages.

Time for a bit of creative destruction?

Do we actively *need* a BK to get velocity moving? Seeing as so many resources are now misallocated to zombie companies just treading water and (to Burry's point) with no room whatsoever to bid up wages.

Time for a bit of creative destruction?

Velocity of money?  IMO no, as a BK is not a key driver of increased velocity (of money), if at all.  IMO physcology is a key driver and that takes many forms.  As is who holds the money (income and wealth distribution) via the impact on the marginal propensity to spend/consume.  There may be collateral impacts from a BK but not directly. But velocity is the key to inflation and no more so I don't fully understand the hypothesis.  Burry also assumes employers are the only arbiters of increased wages and behave the same.  They are not and do not. 

The velocity trigger unlocking inflation, especially after all these years, will likely result in quite a complex firefight.  Guaranteed almost all pundits will be wrong due to overurn and having zero experience and knowledge of such things.  Economists have been historically crap at inflation.  These days they seem more in on the scam (to relieve debt).  People would be better off talking to Doris and her spivy husband!

PS:  Conventional economics, at least in my time, usually assumed a constant velocity which was a daft cop out and not much work was done on playing with this assumption, ie. behavioural economics. Most economists at least back then didn't like psychology, asduming it away with the so called convenient "rational man" assumption, whatever that was.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

I stuck £1700 in and its now just under £6000, but this an HZM are my big winners and i can't but help feel it'd be good time to cash out. Not that ive anywhere lined up to put the profit for the time being. Might leave £500 in to remind me to jump back in if there is a BK.

 

I cut my hzm holding in half yesterday. Left most of the profit in. They could still five bag from here but are vulnerable in BK as they're still a long way from production. If they sold off to 5p I'd probably buy back. Might be a lot of other targets if that happens though.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Velocity of money?  IMO no, as a BK is not a key driver of increased velocity (of money), if at all.  IMO physcology is a key driver and that takes many forms.  As is who holds the money (income and wealth distribution) via the impact on the marginal propensity to spend/consume.  There may be collateral impacts from a BK but not directly. But velocity is the key to inflation and no more so I don't fully understand the hypothesis.  Burry also assumes employers are the only arbiters of increased wages and behave the same.  They are not and do not. 

The velocity trigger unlocking inflation, especially after all these years, will likely result in quite a complex firefight.  Guaranteed almost all pundits will be wrong due to overurn and having zero experience and knowledge of such things.  Economists have been historically crap at inflation.  These days they seem more in on the scam (to relieve debt).  People would be better off talking to Doris and her spivy husband!

PS:  Conventional economics, at least in my time, usually assumed a constant velocity which was a daft cop out and not much work was done on playing with this assumption, ie. behavioural economics. Most economists at least back then didn't like psychology, asduming it away with the so called convenient "rational man" assumption, whatever that was.

I'll quote myself for obvious reasons and not understanding the claimed horror of doing such a thing.

I mentioned a "complex firefight".  Maybe we should try and unpick that for investment themes.  We tend to be a bit high level here with the answer to invest in those companies with pricing power.  Sure, that's the main one but any others worth exploring?

For example, some areas could actually see a rise in demand for all sorts of reasons: substitution, "feel good factors", virtue signalling factors, memes and trends factors, relative availability factors, poltical and regulatory interference, and so on.  There's also a timing (temporal) element during the transition, or more likey series of transitions, as we walk the wonky path.  There will be overun for some, so leaders and laggards with potential opportunities. This will not be a straight line and people's idea of rational has often been more accurate than the economist's one!   

So quite a complex firefight during the turning(s).  Are there ways to play from an investing perspective beyond the pricing power hypothesis.

[Chewing Grass]

Just been on my Pension Co account looking at 2 of the funds on their platform, one I am actively feeding and the other sitting idle.

Both have been steadily losing money since August, the bigger one has steadily lost between 1.5-2% through August and September and is now down about 3.5% over a relatively benign (IMO) period.

If loses quietly carry on at this rate and are compounded by a more harsh UK taxation environment and inflation then the 'Pension Industry' will have reached its tipping point where for most people any chance of saving for a reasonable retirement no matter how hard (30% contributions?) is roached.

I honestly think there is nowhere left for large pension companies to safely invest large sums of bubble free money as we are getting to the stage where mega-corps have bought up all the existing growth and are overvalued, bloated monopolies with nowhere to go, they have eaten everything below them.

[Harley]

13 hours ago, nirvana said:

maybe but he can fuk off or post something useful 

I have humorous visions of deep intakes of breath and the thread community all looking down at their shoes, as if someone had farted at a very posh event! 

So I'm foolishly going there because I thought it was a funny (if somewhat unfair) put down and totally nirvana, a mixed bag I've grown to appreciate, even enjoy (oh, shite, that's going to send him off on one today isn't it! ).

I couldn't just "agree" or "lol" without explaining myself.  Ive also been a bit noisy of late but have been trying to express my complex thoughts through the medium of art!   We all need our moments!

I do hope The Don is cool with all this.  He had a point and I for one get there too.  TBC, it's all DB's fault for going awol for a day or two!  Totally irresponsible.  Not like there's any higher priority (like soup making, funnily the same thing I was doing ).

Maybe The Don would OK the "noisy" meme here now and then in the future?  He can take pride as the author of said meme!

Right, I'm now giving nirvana a "lol" and hope I haven't offended anyone.

Peace to you all.

[Hancock]

42 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I cut my hzm holding in half yesterday. Left most of the profit in. They could still five bag from here but are vulnerable in BK as they're still a long way from production. If they sold off to 5p I'd probably buy back. Might be a lot of other targets if that happens though.

I was just going to let my HZM run as chances are if i sell they'll shoot up in price.

Just sold Norsk and the FX fees were £65, the fuckers must be using Western Union.

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I was just going to let my HZM run as chances are if i sell they'll shoot up in price.

Just sold Norsk and the FX fees were £65, they fuckers must be using Western Union.

Just out of interest to those in on Norsk (congrats BTW), can I please ask how you spotted them in the beginning?  It would be enlightening to know.

[Harley]

Very early days but I saw signs of life on the GDX UK equivalent on the daily yesterday.  Again, very early, historically a bitch to time right, and DYOR, but one to defo watch.  The value in the sector is off the scale compared to the overvalued elsewhere but can Mr Market be that simplistic as "der, but gold is not doing well"! 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I was just going to let my HZM run as chances are if i sell they'll shoot up in price.

Just sold Norsk and the FX fees were £65, they fuckers must be using Western Union.

That is why I only sold half my HZM. If I sold the whole lot they'd be bound to go up just to annoy me. It looks like they've turned down, although up a tiny bit today. Last time they kept falling a long way. I reckon because there are a lot of people sitting on big profits and they eventually get frustrated at seeing them erode. IF it follows the same pattern it could go down to 6p again. 5p in a BK with wider sell off. IF they make a big announcement it could double quickly. It is a gamble either way.

[Sugarlips]

8 minutes ago, Harley said:

Very early days but I saw signs of life on the GDX UK equivalent on the daily yesterday.  Again, very early, historically a bitch to time right, and DYOR, but one to defo watch.  The value in the sector is off the scale compared to the overvalued elsewhere but can Mr Market be that simplistic as "der, but gold is not doing well"! 

Such is clownworld that my silver continues to do nothing (at best) yet my daft punt on Shiba Inu is up about 400% this week 🤡

[Barnsey]

WOW 

 

[Hancock]

11 minutes ago, Harley said:

Just out of interest to those in on Norsk (congrats BTW), can I please ask how you spotted them in the beginning?  It would be enlightening to know.

To be honest i can't fully remember, i've a load of the metals companies in my bookmarks folder that i've looked at over the years, so could have been from there.

Was during the last BK where i was spraying and praying, until my money ran out. 

[Harley]

27 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

That is why I only sold half my HZM. If I sold the whole lot they'd be bound to go up just to annoy me. It looks like they've turned down, although up a tiny bit today. Last time they kept falling a long way. I reckon because there are a lot of people sitting on big profits and they eventually get frustrated at seeing them erode. IF it follows the same pattern it could go down to 6p again. 5p in a BK with wider sell off. IF they make a big announcement it could double quickly. It is a gamble either way.

I started a while back to typically sell down rather than sell out of stocks, that is those I have a continued interest in for macro, dividend, etc reasons.  It can make my remaining holdings and overall performance look poor but then I add back the locked in gains.....!  But then I worry about not doing a full sale as after all a loss is a loss.  But then having some skin in the game means you don't forget to look at the stock on the rebound.

[Harley]

43 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Was during the last BK where i was spraying and praying, until my money ran out. 

Ta.  I really fecked up not doing that at the time but then I had other priorities, most of which are really only now coming to a head so maybe I got the sequence back to front.  But the amount of other stuff I did back in Mar20+ was heroically epic.

What it shows me is the need to generate strategies more proactively (agile ) and/or more broadly in advance than only have those that fight the last war or next skirmish.  Mr Market is a devious sod and I'll be better off not standing so close to better see where he might leap to next.

PS:  I guess I need a strategy to make strategies, as it were!

[Harley]

28 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

WOW 

 

30%?  So really 25% and we'll all be happy! 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

So quite a complex firefight during the turning(s).  Are there ways to play from an investing perspective beyond the pricing power hypothesis.

I think the answer will be very specific companies - ie. stock picking, which further makes sense just from the POV most don't/can't do this (trackers).

[Transistor Man]

58 minutes ago, Harley said:

Just out of interest to those in on Norsk (congrats BTW), can I please ask how you spotted them in the beginning?  It would be enlightening to know.

WW2, and the sabotage of the German nuclear weapons program

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_heavy_water_sabotage