Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

Met a pleasant, well presented, and switched on young delivery driver today.  Battling low wages and housing.  He's the type I care about.  He's the future.  The fat cats crying on the radio spouting yet more of their self serving BS need to shut up, spend less time on the beach, and settle for a fair wack, letting Mr Market decide how much they can pass on to the consumer versus what they need suck up.  Yep, I'm an ethical investor and consumer alright, starting right at home with them.  Bring it on!

[Chewing Grass]

6 minutes ago, janch said:

Well it had to happen:

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-desperate-coal-miners-meet-soaring-global-demand

I suppose our mines have been mothballed for too long to be worth opening again.

Ours have filled with water and/or collapsed, and then had housing built on top, new mines would have to be sunk and Greta would be upset.

[janch]

6 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Time for a bit of creative destruction?

It's already happening.........care homes for a start.  I can forsee a lot of hospitality going as they get hit by rising staff costs with rocketing food and drink prices at the same time.  Less disposable income will do for a few nail bars too I shouldn't wonder.

[Harley]

55 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Friend of a friend's son lost his job last week, from a further education college.

it seems only about 50% of the people they expected to enroll turned up so they had to let people go.

Make of that what you will.

Could be EU nationals heading home, could be people taking jobs as lorry drivers, maybe they all took out 20 bounce back loans and are enjoying that "free" cash, who knows.

Interesting I thought tho.

I've got plenty of academics after me name having done the full tour in the good old days.  I've seen higher education as the scam it is for a while now and would only do it if it was top tier.  But no way I would do it atm with the way things are and because the sector to me represents the heart of woke darkness.  I would be rushing into something resilient, preferably something on my own, even a bit spivy.  I could always be a mature student later and tbh enjoy it more.  DBs lad is the way to go.  Or a trade.

PS:  But naturally sorry about the lost job.  Many in the sector are exploited too.

[HousePriceMania]

What was it DB said, dont sell BP without a 4 in front of it ?

 

https://invezz.com/news/2021/10/06/bp-share-price-forecast-as-oil-and-gas-prices-surge/

 

Therefore, the BP stock price will remain in a bullish trend as long as it is above the two moving averages. If this happens, the next key resistance to watch will be at 400p.

[Harley]

When am I allowed to use the "bogged" thingy?  Is it the opposite of "loved"?

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Or a trade.

This, If you can foresee that the young could maybe handle being self-employed and good at dealing with the public, they may well do very well.

I have been asked to mentor a young lad through his gas apprentice / exams. I said yes, looking forward to it.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Who things the BoE will raise IRs ?

 

 

Who still thinks they will ?

Well the banks and co have made sure their systems and T&Cs could!

[Harley]

16 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

This, If you can foresee that the young could maybe handle being self-employed and good at dealing with the public, they may well do very well.

I have been asked to mentor a young lad through his gas apprentice / exams. I said yes, looking forward to it.

See, do I bog your post or love it, you cheeky bogger!

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

See, do I bog your post or love it, you cheeky bogger!

Bog it, bogged can mean good or bad, sussed, insightful, etc, etc.

[sancho panza]

52 minutes ago, Harley said:

And what kicks off the velocity vortex?  A bit of cost push or supply constraint type dislocations.  Often energy related (1970s?).

I've been buying a lot of stuff since Mar20.  Almost a delivery a day at one point.  Been at it again this week in a major way.  A witches brew of supply constraints and high prices coming and staying for quite a while?  And talk of base effects is BS however you look at it.  Crap talk like that is what they do.  Use the BS as cover to get sorted?

Us too tbh.We live a humble life relatively speaking but like a proper basement dweller,I've told Mrs P to bring forward any purchases she intends to do over the next year or two as things are only going to go up.

As I've mentioned before,someone I know well, took some advice on inflation from the head economist of a High St bank(referenced him to me by using his first name lol) when opting out of a fixed rate mortgage deal recently.I said nothing.The connected types all have a faith in their own superiority.

This inflation isn't transitory,it's not even had an uplift imho from a rise in velocity fuelled by behaviroual changes.That will come and when it does it will be game changer

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

If they had let Centrica,SSE etc make an extra £3 a week margin this wouldnt of happened but the government decided to squeeze that few quid to hand to councils and police precepts instead for their pensions.An utter disaster made by politicians who only know dis-inflation.Now we have massive taxes and the turn in prices of everything else they are caught in a massice pincer movement.

They will face pressure next year as tax increases.Firms cant hire without massive wage increases at the same time as input costs are going through the roof.The economy will see huge changes and dis-location.

Still, iv made my energy bills for the rest of my life and more from whats happened.Maybe someone should forward the thread to Sunak seeing as he has moved the treasury to Darlo id be willing to do one day a week.

 

 

 

I think huge structural changes are inbound for the economy.A lot on here are old enough to remember the 80's when the pits got closed and places like Leicester lsot msot of their industry(tens of thousands of textile realted jobs).

 

Same thing is coming now and it's going to decimate the discretionary sector -coffee shops/high st retail.Already happening in the latter.
tax revenues down,claimant count up, cost of living up.

[invalid]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 Velocity is a function of psychology.The moment people start to fear their spending power will diminish by sitting in cash,they will spend more quickly and then the wage/price spiral will kick in.

 

 

 

 

This is why I find the headlines in the DM of interest, it has huge readership and shows what message is being put out.

Some of todays stories on the homepage to illustrate what readers are being subjected to:

 

Squeezed Britain: One in TEN firms has raised their prices already amid fears of runaway inflation - driven by post-Covid supply chain crisis and energy crisis with average households facing £1,660 bills hike next year 

 

Bank of England's chief economist warns the 'magnitude and duration' of the UK's inflation spike is 'proving greater than expected' amid fears of runaway price increases 

 

Brazilian butcher beats customer to death after he complained about the prices going up 

 

Putin has the West over a barrel: Fury at 'bullying' Russia for holding UK and EU to ransom over gas prices by promising more supplies IF pipeline is approved - amid warnings bills could rise by 30% while inflation soars and tax hikes loom

 

Now National Grid warns of a greater risk of BLACKOUTS in Britain this winter because electricity supplies will be 'tight' after undersea cable fire - as Putin drives up gas prices, inflation soars and supply chain crisis threatens food shortages

 

 

 

I've added this one just for the LOLs:

 

'Headbutting a keyboard is now a sexuality' Justin Trudeau is mocked for using the latest sexual identities acronym 2SLGBTQQIA+

 

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Maybe someone should forward the thread to Sunak seeing as he has moved the treasury to Darlo id be willing to do one day a week.

Half a day per week. They'd want to pay you £125k pa and you'd only want 10% of that for tax purposes.

Although tax is probably a moot point working for the treasury.

[invalid]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Ours have filled with water and/or collapsed, and then had housing built on top, new mines would have to be sunk and Greta would be upset.

 

The locals are rather upset about this proposed new one, its been dragging on for some time. I wonder if those objecting have changed their mind with recent events? You can bet they would be first to be kicking up a fuss if their power or gas went off.

 

https://cumbriacrack.com/2021/09/24/west-cumbria-coal-mine-could-have-major-impact-on-valley/

 

West Cumbria Mining’s controversial application for a new coal mine, which is currently being examined at a public inquiry that started on September 7, includes plans to build a huge Rail Loading Facility (RLF) in the Pow Beck Valley – which runs from St Bees to Whitehaven. The RLF would enable extracted coal to be transported from the mine.  

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

When am I allowed to use the "bogged" thingy?  Is it the opposite of "loved"?

Bogged can be used for all sorts of meanings. If someone has described a situation that is ridiculous or where someone has made a situation significantly worse, especially if deliberate. If someone has predicted an asset will go up and you think it will go down or that they've cursed it. This can also be ironic. If an asset is plunging or has plunged.

Almost anything said by a politician deserves a bogged for one or more reasons.

I wouldn't use it just because I disagreed with or hated an opinion.

This post is probably boggable for being overly wordy and not very useful.

[sancho panza]

hattip kapaln

dyor natch

Decl :long and looking.

 

[HousePriceMania]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Who things the BoE will raise IRs ?

 

 

Who still thinks they will ?

Then just to clarify their position....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-07/boe-s-new-chief-economist-sees-prolonged-jump-in-u-k-inflation

 

"Remarks strengthen the case for an early rate increase"

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

"Remarks strengthen the case for an early rate increase"

Inflation, taxes and interest rates > Inflation, recession, unemployment, repossessions etc

[Noallegiance]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

hattip kapaln

dyor natch

Decl :long and looking.

 

Fuck me if I wait another 70 months I'll be 47 for those kinds of gains.

A purple or red one would be nice, though.

[Loki]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

When am I allowed to use the "bogged" thingy?  Is it the opposite of "loved"?

If someone buys and the price immediately drops: BOGGED

If someone sells and the price immediately rises: BOGGED

 

That's all there is to it 

 

Top comment 

"Boss, the economy is recovering"

Bogdanoff: "Block the canal"

 

One man with the power to move markets and activate quantum immortality and he uses it to mess with one guy  

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

When am I allowed to use the "bogged" thingy?  Is it the opposite of "loved"?

Nobody knows what bogged actually means, i think its better that way.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Nobody knows what bogged actually means, i think its better that way.

It's just an old crpyto meme, some of the explanations on here are hilariously over-complicated 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Bog it, bogged can mean good or bad, sussed, insightful, etc, etc.

How am I meant to know?  I'm very insecure.  Do you not like me? 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, invalid said:

 

This is why I find the headlines in the DM of interest, it has huge readership and shows what message is being put out.

Some of todays stories on the homepage to illustrate what readers are being subjected to:

 

Squeezed Britain: One in TEN firms has raised their prices already amid fears of runaway inflation - driven by post-Covid supply chain crisis and energy crisis with average households facing £1,660 bills hike next year 

 

Bank of England's chief economist warns the 'magnitude and duration' of the UK's inflation spike is 'proving greater than expected' amid fears of runaway price increases 

 

Brazilian butcher beats customer to death after he complained about the prices going up 

 

Putin has the West over a barrel: Fury at 'bullying' Russia for holding UK and EU to ransom over gas prices by promising more supplies IF pipeline is approved - amid warnings bills could rise by 30% while inflation soars and tax hikes loom

 

Now National Grid warns of a greater risk of BLACKOUTS in Britain this winter because electricity supplies will be 'tight' after undersea cable fire - as Putin drives up gas prices, inflation soars and supply chain crisis threatens food shortages

 

 

 

I've added this one just for the LOLs:

 

'Headbutting a keyboard is now a sexuality' Justin Trudeau is mocked for using the latest sexual identities acronym 2SLGBTQQIA+

 

 

 

Oh dear, if it's like that then I'll change my hypo to "they" are stoking a rush to consume to kick start their version of "growth" and inflation be damned.  Never face these buggers face on!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Nobody knows what bogged actually means, i think its better that way.

Change of plan, research required.  With such a diversity of views, how are we ever going to own the world!