Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

17 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The weird thing about the numbers is that at 194k vs 500k expected the headline is a miss, but the unemployed rate dropped from 5.2% to 4.8%. Have people just given up?

Such a low unemployment number is bullish for removing Fed life support

the FED are trapped now.........f'ed if they do, f'ed if they don't......

PS the gold shorters are lingering at 1780......bulls need to push it higher or it's an early bath....

I'm clearly mad but the market does talk to you if you're prepared to listen 

 

[kibuc]

31 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The weird thing about the numbers is that at 194k vs 500k expected the headline is a miss, but the unemployed rate dropped from 5.2% to 4.8%. Have people just given up?

Such a low unemployment number is bullish for removing Fed life support

Unemployment only counts people in the market for work. Participation rate is low (and lower than previous reading), so it's mostly people not being arsed about looking for a job.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Is the reason you're all holding gold and silver in bullion vault etc due to the lack of liquidity of physical? 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've defintiely noted a change in people at work as we worked all the way through.Even to the point that one lass was saying here sister only works 16 horus a week because there's no financial point herw working mroe and said it as if it was a bad thing.More genereally,I think people at my place are becoming more aware that this sin't ustainable.They may not verbalise it rationally,but that's what it feels like to me.

I think one of the biggest long term consequences of lockdown will be the effect on the mental ehalth of society.Some people have been scared witless by the MSM.Some people driven to depression by the lack of social interactions.Once the damage is done it's hard to unwind.Also,we're a very divided society increasingly.Workers/furloughess,key workers/non key workers,vaxxed/unvaxxed, homeowners/renters,young and penniless/old and final salary pensioned etc

Society is possibly the most divided I've seen in my lifetime and that includes the 80's.

Yes, division everywhere, even the feminists are having their own (2nd/3rd wave?) Internal putsch!... But then, it's always been my contention that identity politics is a low-level civil war.                                                                         SP, interesting what you say about your work colleague attitudes. On a tandential note, have you seen that Ambulance BBC TV program? Is it me or is it a curious way for an organisation to 'show case' it's service? Couple of weeks back they had a newbie call handler who didn't know what NHS stood for prior to starting (he had it written out in full on the inside cover of his notebook!)... Definitely not saying he's representative or anything, but I did notice the Liverpool control centre looked full of 20/30-somethings (must say all doing a good job), but maybe just highlighting that the older employees take the opportunity to retire asap (a work theme of this thread)?                                                                                                                                                              (Btw, in you earlier post, glad to see that explorer Rockhopper is back on your oil list. I like to think it is a 100bagger! Don't let anyone tell you a Rockhopper is a 'flightless' bird!!)

[CVG]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Is the reason you're all holding gold and silver in bullion vault etc due to the lack of liquidity of physical? 

Nope. It's safer there than under my bed.

[nirvana]

did you see it? Gold, smack it down bitch!!! 

 

 

[CVG]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

did you see it? Gold, smack it down bitch!!! 

 

 

Good. I'm not fully invested yet. Needs to stay down.

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, CVG said:

Good. I'm not fully invested yet. Needs to stay down.

Gold is a traders market NOT an investors one 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

There's also the fall out from furlough ending to come to come.

This CV19 recession has a lot of twists and turns to come. 

This might make DB laugh, I had a dream last night that I went round his house and his family were all talking to me but he wasn't, because he wasn't talking I was never quite sure if it was actually him and I was too polite to ask.  I wonder what that means !!!  

 

I digress, I bought back into oil shares a few weeks ago, and some other stuff too (BT/VOD/AVIVA/BAT/IMB/PETROFAC and some others).  My buys were heavily weighed towards oil/gas shares ( BP/RDSB/REPSOL) 

The oil shares in my ISA were up about 10% and everything else down 2-5%.   If the oil shares have a large pull back I'd be under water so I've sold out the stuff in the ISA  and taken the 5% ( inflation level ) profit and there will be some other dividends to come.

My nerves are shattered watching it all unfold.

I am holding some oil shares + some other dross in a SIPP now too and it's the same story, oil up, other stuff going down.  It's this divergence that has made me a bit jittery with the ISA. 

The SIPP is up almost 30% ( before the dividends roll in) and that's before I factor in tax, amazingly I've worked out I need to see a 60% collapse before I was losing money if I factor in the tax I've avoided paying 

Having utilized my SIPP last 18 months I also had a lovely £10K tax rebate this week, so have bought myself some skis that I wanted ( on sale of course ) and my wife is very happy to have a little splurge too.

I'm now going to my feet up till after Christmas before working on what to do next.

I am forever optimistic that the central banking cartel will change tact but I think we all know they wont, it will be clear by the end of year just what they are going to do ( nothing imho ).

If we are still where we are come January I'll go big into the oil shares.

I'll be forever grateful to everyone on this thread for the tips/advice/humour.

Keep up the good work.

 

As per your recent weird dreams, you haven't been watching those David Lynch Twin Peak re-runs again have you?

[Bricormortis]

10 yr. US yield 1.6 now.

David Hunter sees it going back down though, before a stronger run up.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Cheeky I know,but if you don't ask etc.....aside from Endeavour any other small miners that it might be worth us running oru slide rule over.Impact?I'm looking at getting some more Alexco while they're down.

May be worth putting a shout out to @kibuc if there's any junior pure play silver names he knows beside those already thrown out there?

I think Alexco is the first one,i also like Yamana for silver potential in Argentina,not a 100 bag of course but maybe a 10 bagger,Fortuna Silver Mines and Mag Silver as well.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Something that's becoming increasingly noticeable to me as I drive around doing my job is, people are becoming aware of the madness of others. The most common phrase I hear from folk is "collective madness", or "everyone's gone mad", more and more people openly talking about it.

Conspiatorial of me perhaps?!?... But all this 'Othering'? Maybe it's the first signs of a social disconnect metastasizing, although unsurprising as disharmony has been sown for decades. Ultimately it is a false narrative, but conveniently it allows tptb to clamp down/control more easily those unruly 'inconvenient' types, that just happen to disagree with them. 

[nirvana]

27 minutes ago, nirvana said:

did you see it? Gold, smack it down bitch!!! 

 

 

that really was a masterclass in how the performers play the markets, my work here is done 

 

[Transistor Man]

53 minutes ago, nirvana said:

did you see it? Gold, smack it down bitch!!! 

 

 

Larry topping up his SIPP. 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

I'm starting to see an emerging commentariat view that the polos and administrators haven't got a clue what to do on a lot of things, so yes, thrashing around.  What you get from years of incestuous behaviour.

Yes public life has been hollowed out. MP Peter Bottomly said yesterday that MP salaries should increase, part reason was to attract a better calibre. He cited example of union leaders not having to take a pay cut(!) if they so desired becoming an MP, oh and similar for the medics. His point was I think that 'experience and skills' need to be attracted into the MP sector!                                                                                                                            It is scary situation as we desparatly need a new crop of leaders and decision makers... As for the civil servants, they are no longer 'civil' nor 'servants'! 

[HousePriceMania]

48 minutes ago, JMD said:

As per your recent weird dreams, you haven't been watching those David Lynch Twin Peak re-runs again have you?

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

The weird thing about the numbers is that at 194k vs 500k expected the headline is a miss, but the unemployed rate dropped from 5.2% to 4.8%. Have people just given up?

Such a low unemployment number is bullish for removing Fed life support

 

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes public life has been hollowed out. MP Peter Bottomly said yesterday that MP salaries should increase, part reason was to attract a better calibre. He cited example of union leaders not having to take a pay cut(!) if they so desired becoming an MP, oh and similar for the medics. His point was I think that 'experience and skills' need to be attracted into the MP sector!                                                                                                                            It is scary situation as we desparatly need a new crop of leaders and decision makers... As for the civil servants, they are no longer 'civil' nor 'servants'! 

Thats the excuse scumbag money grabbing ****s at "charities" give for paying six figure salaries. What a horrible bunch of ****s the people at the top in the UK are.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

@MrXxxxand @JMDMakes no difference what currency you buy in. They are the same fund. The GBP denominated one will save you from currency conversion fees but will have a wider bid offer.

Thanks Castlevania, but selecting a dollar denominated fund means carrying currency risk does it not? Many think the dollar will fall over this decade, so the conversation if selling back into pounds would be unfavorable. (For example, just mentioning for background, but I plan to sell most/all my silver fund and exchange it for physical (gold) by say 2026)

[Heart's Ease]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

love it.....

 

 

separet matter @Hancock we're buying second ladder in BAT's today.A long term buy for use at £25 plus change 8.5% yield.....also some APF for coal exposure but BAT's looks ripe here.

I joined you on the BATs today SP. Overall average £25.39 which I'm extremely happy with. Hold and forget for me.

Thanks again for all your work on Coma scores btw. 

 

 

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, nirvana said:

 

The Mighty Panther came out with a profit warning earlier today. What indeed.

[jamtomorrow]

SEEDs perspective on this energy crunch: https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2021/10/08/213-a-moment-of-truth/

Won't paste the whole thing, just the "this time it's different" part -

We need to be clear that, insofar as this is an “energy crisis”, it has nothing in common with previous such crises. Neither can it be blamed on after-effects of the pandemic crisis, on gamesmanship (by Russia, or anyone else), on ‘little local difficulties’ (like “Brexit”), or even on the distorting effects of gargantuan financial stimulus, harmful though that has been. Least of all can it be ascribed to ‘brisk economic growth’, since the global economy is unlikely to be any larger in 2021 than it was in 2019.

Rather, what we are experiencing is a predictable – though, in general, not a predicted – collision between resource limitations and a desire for never-ending “growth”.  

The economy has hitherto experienced two energy crises (or three, if we include the oil price spike experienced in the American Civil War), but what’s happening now is profoundly different.
During the 1973-74 embargo crisis, and the 1978-79 Iranian revolution, there was no physical shortage of oil, or of energy more generally. These were crises of management, and of trade imbalances and international relations, not of supply fundamentals. Fossil fuel ECoEs remained below 2% in the 1970s, but are nearly 10% now. Even if renewable energy sources (REs) can take over fully from fossil fuels in the future (and this is unlikely), they certainly can’t do so now.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Thanks Castlevania, but selecting a dollar denominated fund means carrying currency risk does it not? Many think the dollar will fall over this decade, so the conversation if selling back into pounds would be unfavorable. (For example, just mentioning for background, but I plan to sell most/all my silver fund and exchange it for physical (gold) by say 2026)

No, you are exposed to the price of silver in GBP regardless. You buy one ounce of silver - it doesn’t matter what currency you pay because what you own is one ounce of silver.

[BurntBread]

Many thanks @sancho panza for the updated coma scores: it's extremely generous of you to share your work!

I like the idea that this thread (especially the leading posters) has essentially re-built the capabilities of the old Fidelity Investments department (at least if @nirvana eases off on the drugs). Imagine if DB picked his team and set up in competition to Vanguard. It could save a lot of people from a very pinched retirement (or not: nothing is certain in life, but the Durham Investment Vehicle would certainly add a welcome bit of diversification to a traditional 60:40 "woke & broke" pension).

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

(at least if @nirvana eases off on the drugs)

I'm in the risk assessment department bro 

seriously it's better to make a grand in an hour than in a week....

BUT I think I'll take some time out to masturbate reflect on life and meditate

have fun!