Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

How am I meant to know?  I'm very insecure.  Do you not like me? 

You're insecure? I can barely post on this forum in fear of upsetting someone. "I come in peace" is sometimes never understood.

I think Jack Hargreaves said it best.

 

ps, I love you all really.

[Heart's Ease]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Change of plan, research required.  With such a diversity of views, how are we ever going to own the world!

A state in which one's crypto trades go so poorly as to be explainable only by the intervention of an omniscient and likely malevolent entity

 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

an omniscient and likely malevolent entity

So very applicable to this thread then!

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The Saudis aren't going to accept tiddlywinks for their oill.

I have been struggling with this whole central bank digital currency stuff for some time, it will work with a countries' population maybe, but global trade and commerce? how's that gonna work.

I think you have hit the nail on the head for me.

[Bricormortis]

One IMF digital currency? Deliberate destruction of the dollar / alternatives ?

[nirvana]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

So how is China going to buy it when they can't earn dollars by selling us crap, and the yanks swan back in to bid for the same oil?

fuk nose, sell some US debt? anyway I don't care anymore, I've misplaced billions of Shibu Inu coins lol I only remembered I had em when I was stoned off my tits.......there's some weird forces at work in the world and I need to get my shit together if I'm gonna make it with all those fit chicks washing down my flash cars 

good luck! 

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have been struggling with this whole central bank digital currency stuff for some time, it will work with a countries' population maybe, but global trade and commerce? how's that gonna work.

I think you have hit the nail on the head for me

it'll be a global shitcoin, backed by nowt with unlimited supply!

can't give you any social credit points at the mo bro so have jesus on your team instead!

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, nirvana said:

it'll be a global shitcoin, backed by nowt with unlimited supply!

Tiddlywinks then, I get it now.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

It's just an old crpyto meme, some of the explanations on here are hilariously over-complicated 

Looks like Chuck Norris to me:

1. Chuck Norris doesn’t read books. He stares them down until he gets the information he wants.
2. In the Beginning there was nothing … then Chuck Norris roundhouse kicked nothing and told it to get a job.
3. When God said, “Let there be light!” Chuck said, “Say Please.”
4. The dinosaurs looked at Chuck Norris the wrong way once. You know what happened to them.

 

 

[feed]

32 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The Saudis aren't going to accept tiddlywinks for their oill. They'll take dollars, gold or probably roubles if the Russkis wanted any, as the rouble is pretty much gold backed. 

The irony if the US goes to a domestic CBDC and the black market currency of choice becomes the ruble.  

[Loki]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Looks like Chuck Norris to me:

1. Chuck Norris doesn’t read books. He stares them down until he gets the information he wants.
2. In the Beginning there was nothing … then Chuck Norris roundhouse kicked nothing and told it to get a job.
3. When God said, “Let there be light!” Chuck said, “Say Please.”
4. The dinosaurs looked at Chuck Norris the wrong way once. You know what happened to them.

 

 

Even Norris leaves the markets to the Bogdanovs 

[leonardratso]

barny rub(b)le

[Harley]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Us too tbh.We live a humble life relatively speaking but like a proper basement dweller,I've told Mrs P to bring forward any purchases she intends to do over the next year or two as things are only going to go up.

That's brave.  I've given mine the "Powell defence"! 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yep, Luke Gromens being saying this for a while.

 It was him!

https://palisadesradio.ca/luke-gromen-the-growing-recognition-of-negative-bond-yields/

[Harley]

Someone on a podcast pointed out how little thought has gone into the transition.  Hardly surprising given the cohort pushing it.  I remember when looking at heating for a renovation.  These things just don't come close to delivering the btus.  It's a massive challenge to move from one to the other, if indeed it can be done.  Hence nuclear, the cohort knows they have to compromise or get a kicking.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Gandalf makes the same point I made here a couple of weeks ago, that oil is cheap and the economy can suck it up and pay more. The demand destruction narrative is trite:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3750529-economy-can-withstand-130-oil-25-10-year-jpmorgans-kolanovic-says

• The recent spike in energy prices and interest rates shouldn't deter investors from buying most of the equity dips, J.P. Morgan's global markets strategy team says.
• S&P futures (SPX) (NYSEARCA:SPY) are pointing to a higher open this morning following a turnaround yesterday afternoon.
• Strategist Marko Kolanovic has consistently called for investors to stay invested and recently advised investors buy the dip on the Evergrande selling.
• And he says even with energy and supply chain issues, there's no reason now to change the advice to rotate equity exposure into cyclicals.
• "We believe the recent pullback is an opportunity to buy the dip on cyclical assets - which would include all equities (EM and DM) apart from high-multiple growth sectors (e.g. Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ))," he writes in a note. "The reason for this is our view on intensifying energy issues, rising inflation and bond yields, and still extreme overweights in growth and tech stocks, and underweights in value and cyclical stocks."
• "Our highest conviction ideas remain energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) (equities and commodity), materials (NYSEARCA:XLB), industrials (NYSEARCA:XLI) and financials (NYSEARCA:XLF), and reopening, COVID recovery, reflation and consumer (NYSEARCA:XLY) themes."
• Current high oil prices (CL1:COM) (CO1:COM) (NYSEARCA:USO) won't have a significant negative impact on the economy, he adds.
• "For instance, the economy and the consumer were functioning just fine in the period over 2010-2015, when oil averaged $100," Kolanovic says. "Adjusting for inflation, consumer balance sheets, total oil expenditures, wages, and prices of other assets (housing, stocks, etc.) we think even with oil at $130 or $150 equity markets and the economy could function well (with some rebalancing at capital rotation)."
• As far as rates are concerned, the team still thinks a broad market selloff will only come if the 10-year Treasury yield (NYSEARCA:TBT) (NASDAQ:TLT) exceeds 2.5%-3%.
• One thing to keep an eye on is coal (XAL1:COM) (NYSEARCA:KOL), though, which may be the "proverbial canary in the coalmine," Kolanovic says.
• "We believe that the evolution of coal prices might reflect supply, demand, cost of capital, and energy transitioning issues for all fossil fuels, and it would be certainly possible that oil prices will follow the same pattern (inflation adjusted for oil that would be in a $150-200/bbl range)."

Also consider this point:

What is the marginal barrel price now? Where is it coming from?

I called $80 a barrel when it was $35, that's been hit.  I don't really know what happens next. Could be a price spike, could be a severe correction. But the above numbers are baked into the medium term imo, and I've said all along just wait till it gets into the mainstream. I'm very happy to see Kolanovic picking up the ball from the back of the ruck.

It's a btfd market now imo, no matter how severe the dips maybe. Especially if the current price holds to week and month end. Dyodd!

Great to see our cycle targets of $200 to $300 starting to gain support.I still think gas will be the 2nd best performing asset of the cycle after silver and it might have that locked already,but im still expecting much higher prices from 23 onwards.What im toying with now though is if 8 year targets being hit in a year means i should sell and spread between laggard sectors.Iv sold a lot of potash for that reason.The problem is though my portfolio then becomes less diverse and thats a step to far.

Massive transfer of money from the consumer to the de-complex areas is really motoring now and the politics will get very difficult as the workers and scroungers on the state breast try to take more and more from the already squeezed private sector.

 

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Great to see our cycle targets of $200 to $300 starting to gain support.I still think gas will be the 2nd best performing asset of the cycle after silver and it might have that locked already,but im still expecting much higher prices from 23 onwards.What im toying with now though is if 8 year targets being hit in a year means i should sell and spread between laggard sectors.Iv sold a lot of potash for that reason.The problem is though my portfolio then becomes less diverse and thats a step to far.

Massive transfer of money from the consumer to the de-complex areas is really motoring now and the politics will get very difficult as the workers and scroungers on the state breast try to take more and more from the already squeezed private sector.

 

I never knew silver was the predicted best performing asset of your forecast, well I did, ~$25 to $300+, I'd just never realised it.  Physical I assume?

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I have most of my 'clear the mortgage' silver in Sprotts fully backed fund in my ISA. Should do the trick 

Thanks for that, I assume you've looked at that vs Bullionvault? (Seeing as you're a thorough, knowledgeable sort of chap)

[DurhamBorn]

28 minutes ago, Loki said:

I never knew silver was the predicted best performing asset of your forecast, well I did, ~$25 to $300+, I'd just never realised it.  Physical I assume?

Silver miners likely some 100 baggers,but silver itself best performing commod.Just the forecast of course,might only be 3rd best performing, but we will take that.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Silver miners likely some 100 baggers,but silver itself best performing commod.Just the forecast of course,might only be 3rd best performing, but we will take that.

I expect one of the commodities covered will be the best performing. 

Coal for me so far, but I don't expect that to be the story for the cycle

[Noallegiance]

Intrepid has been a mini cash machine for me to feed to divi payers @DurhamBorn.

Can't bring myself to get rid totally yet.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I called $80 a barrel when it was $35, that's been hit.  I don't really know what happens next. Could be a price spike, could be a severe correction. But the above numbers are baked into the medium term imo, and I've said all along just wait till it gets into the mainstream. I'm very happy to see Kolanovic picking up the ball from the back of the ruck.

It's a btfd market now imo, no matter how severe the dips maybe. Especially if the current price holds to week and month end. Dyodd!

To my untrained eye,this is the beginning of the big moeny joining the trade.They like to see a well formed bottom,a viable case for uspide and then the sell side steps and ramps it up to their clients.This is where we are now with the oilies.Shell clearing 1500 decisively and then 1600 was the beginning of the middle of this trade.

Kaplan said two or three years ago that the last sector to rally into the crash was oil and look how right he was.Shame he's not followed his own advice but that's quite common in the game.

Thanks to your good self,I have a very basic undersanding of the supply side issues and the contraints there are from mulitple angles.It doesn't take a genius to look at a long term demand chart/population chart and realsie there's some way to go yet.

The market can afford to pay a lot more for it's oil than it does.

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Indeed. I fancy some roubles myself.

Frigetning/compelling in equal measure.Thats an amazing stat.

22 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Hope so. I'm heavily into Fresnillo and Polymetal and Physical Silver.

JEFFERIES / FRESNILLO PRICE TARGET TO 1,280 pence 'BUY'.

JEFFERIES CUTS POLYMETAL PRICE TARGET TO 1,725 (1,900) PENCE - 'BUY' BERENBERG CUTS POLYMETAL PRICE TARGET TO 2,200 (2,300) PENCE - 'BUY'

PM Miners are at a Woolworth's price for a Harrod's product.

Patience is the key...

Last number on the right hand side is the PE ratio.Some of these stocks are on eye wateringly low PEs for companies in the sector imho

[nirvana]

12 hours ago, Hancock said:

Nobody knows what bogged actually means, i think its better that way.

it's just a euphemism for being controlled by the 1%......once you realise that you can exit the matrix and start living for real 

[nirvana]

5 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

Patience is the key...

that is absolute fekkin drivel...

extrapolate that gif a bit further, gold is currently $1757

 

[Lightscribe]

7 minutes ago, nirvana said:

that is absolute fekkin drivel...

extrapolate that gif a bit further, gold is currently $1757

 

Well you do need patience with silver, it has to be one of the most heavily manipulated (against) commodities. It will run and when it does, it won’t be coming back down.

You’ve picked the last decade in a disinflation cycle teamed up with QE in your Peter Schiff pictures. This time it’s different…it really is. PM’s have to be used, physical is already squeezed, it will eventually be forced to detach massively from paper.

Bitcoin is an unknown. It’s always followed the FAANGS and when the stock market drops, it does too. But an inflationary environment is a game changer,  excluding putting any damning regulation aside that is. If it realises it’s anti-inflationary potential then the sky is the limit, but the question is will it be allowed to.

What this next decade will guarantee however is disruption and disorder in the transition from the 40 year disinflation cycle as Deutsche Bank (yes not one to talk) writes below.

https://flow.db.com/more/macro-and-markets/the-age-of-disorder