Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

It will run and when it does, it won’t be coming back down.

if I was you I'd put the crystal ball to one side....

Hand in glove
The sun shines out of our behinds
Yes, we may be hidden by rags
But we've something they'll never have

 

[nirvana]

17 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Bitcoin is an unknown. It’s always followed the FAANGS and when the stock market drops, it does too

that's not true anymore either, bitcoin has decoupled from FAANGS recently, learn to read a fukkin graph! or a chart lol

[nirvana]

46 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://flow.db.com/more/macro-and-markets/the-age-of-disorder

what another load o feckin drivel.....if you really believe in the 'age of disorder' it's puters, information, digital currency and guns, still lol

 

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Loki said:

Thanks for that, I assume you've looked at that vs Bullionvault? (Seeing as you're a thorough, knowledgeable sort of chap)

I did for other `physical` silver ETCs and the breakeven point for BV vs costs was around £50k, for gold it was half that.

[JimmyTheBruce]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Last number on the right hand side is the PE ratio.Some of these stocks are on eye wateringly low PEs for companies in the sector imho

I was looking at this the other day.  I couldn't believe the Sibanye PE.  It's been one of my best performers and the divs this year have been cracking.

I know the whole sector has taken a beating recently, but are the S. Africa-based guys getting hit harder?  The Harmony PE and price/book are crazy too.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

that's not true anymore either, bitcoin has decoupled from FAANGS recently, learn to read a fukkin graph! or a chart lol

In the BK Bitcoin will crash with everything. From then on we’ll see to how long fiat lasts. Could then get to millions. What would millions actually be worth? I’m not anti-crypto, I’ve been in and out since 2012 and one of the few lone voices from the beginning on this thread.

I’ve always said however, that there will certainly be CBDCs but also ISO 20022 certified crypto technologies allowed to facilitate the CBDCs and the government blockchains. UBI is a certainty.

I personally don’t think BTC will be allowed to be part of that in a ‘great reset’ Neo-feudalist future drawing away from consuming resources and capitalism.

This isn’t coming from a crystal ball, this is coming from ‘their’ outlined plans which they have made known.

And no this all won’t happen peacefully. That’s why there will be wars, depopulation, food shortages etc hence age of disorder.

And yes I can read charts, I just haven’t bothered anymore since GoldmanSachs took over calling the shots in BTC and my call of $50 LINK (which I made on here) came in which I sold and re-bought back in when it halved doubling the stack.

[Loki]

52 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I did for other `physical` silver ETCs and the breakeven point for BV vs costs was around £50k, for gold it was half that.

Cheers!

[nirvana]

11 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

my call of $50 LINK

yeah I know you're not daft.....I posted a pic similar to this regarding link a while ago..

can't find it so have this one, good luck in the matrix bro 

 

[nirvana]

can someone ban from this thread? I'm getting distracted and missed the dump on the DAX 

[nirvana]

markets move in waves....know what to buy and when to dump your losers, dump em and dump em quick!

do drugs and FEEL the fuckin vibes and the moves!!!

You should feel what I feel, you should take what I take
You should feel what I feel, you should take what I take
You should feel what I feel, you should take what I take

 

 

[King of Fools]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

markets move in waves....know what to buy and when to dump your losers, dump em and dump em quick!

do drugs and FEEL the fuckin vibes and the moves!!!

You should feel what I feel, you should take what I take
You should feel what I feel, you should take what I take
You should feel what I feel, you should take what I take

 

 

I know that. It’s “Star Guitar”. You must watch the video which shows you how they made your video (which I can’t see 😮). It’s on YouTube:

[nirvana]

never chase the market, let it come to you.......right I need to get away 

 

[Barnsey]

Anyone else thinking we're moving too far too fast? Everything from LBC to Sky News talking about inflation and energy prices all day long this past week. Turns out wage growth for last year was only 1.7%, in line with long term average. Something has to give. Inflation isn't linear, actions and reactions aren't static. Personal view, when you see a cover like this from the Economist (or Barrons), expect a short to medium term pullback.

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

Hope so. I'm heavily into Fresnillo and Polymetal and Physical Silver.

JEFFERIES / FRESNILLO PRICE TARGET TO 1,280 pence 'BUY'.

JEFFERIES CUTS POLYMETAL PRICE TARGET TO 1,725 (1,900) PENCE - 'BUY' BERENBERG CUTS POLYMETAL PRICE TARGET TO 2,200 (2,300) PENCE - 'BUY'

PM Miners are at a Woolworth's price for a Harrod's product.

Patience is the key...

Remember it will be small obscure silver miners that might 100 bag,the big boys might 5x or the odd 7x.Key in a parabolic run will be market cap to resources and project potential.Endeavour for instance is overvalued now on its present mines,its new mine its going to build is good but still puts the company below its price now on a fair price,but it has a few properties in Chile that might have massive mounts of silver and gold,or never ever be mined BUT in a parabolic people latch on to the "might be a billion ounces of silver" talk.

Can the mighty Panther last that long though? 

[Noallegiance]

34 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Anyone else thinking we're moving too far too fast? Everything from LBC to Sky News talking about inflation and energy prices all day long this past week. Turns out wage growth for last year was only 1.7%, in line with long term average. Something has to give. Inflation isn't linear, actions and reactions aren't static. Personal view, when you see a cover like this from the Economist (or Barrons), expect a short to medium term pullback.

I think you've just personified the 'wall of worry' that markets like this climb on.

[Barnsey]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I think you've just personified the 'wall of worry' that markets like this climb on.

 

[HousePriceMania]

41 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Anyone else thinking we're moving too far too fast? Everything from LBC to Sky News talking about inflation and energy prices all day long this past week. Turns out wage growth for last year was only 1.7%, in line with long term average. Something has to give. Inflation isn't linear, actions and reactions aren't static. Personal view, when you see a cover like this from the Economist (or Barrons), expect a short to medium term pullback.

There's also the fall out from furlough ending to come to come.

This CV19 recession has a lot of twists and turns to come. 

This might make DB laugh, I had a dream last night that I went round his house and his family were all talking to me but he wasn't, because he wasn't talking I was never quite sure if it was actually him and I was too polite to ask.  I wonder what that means !!!  

 

I digress, I bought back into oil shares a few weeks ago, and some other stuff too (BT/VOD/AVIVA/BAT/IMB/PETROFAC and some others).  My buys were heavily weighed towards oil/gas shares ( BP/RDSB/REPSOL) 

The oil shares in my ISA were up about 10% and everything else down 2-5%.   If the oil shares have a large pull back I'd be under water so I've sold out the stuff in the ISA  and taken the 5% ( inflation level ) profit and there will be some other dividends to come.

My nerves are shattered watching it all unfold.

I am holding some oil shares + some other dross in a SIPP now too and it's the same story, oil up, other stuff going down.  It's this divergence that has made me a bit jittery with the ISA. 

The SIPP is up almost 30% ( before the dividends roll in) and that's before I factor in tax, amazingly I've worked out I need to see a 60% collapse before I was losing money if I factor in the tax I've avoided paying 

Having utilized my SIPP last 18 months I also had a lovely £10K tax rebate this week, so have bought myself some skis that I wanted ( on sale of course ) and my wife is very happy to have a little splurge too.

I'm now going to my feet up till after Christmas before working on what to do next.

I am forever optimistic that the central banking cartel will change tact but I think we all know they wont, it will be clear by the end of year just what they are going to do ( nothing imho ).

If we are still where we are come January I'll go big into the oil shares.

I'll be forever grateful to everyone on this thread for the tips/advice/humour.

Keep up the good work.

 

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

I was looking at this the other day.  I couldn't believe the Sibanye PE.  It's been one of my best performers and the divs this year have been cracking.

I know the whole sector has taken a beating recently, but are the S. Africa-based guys getting hit harder?  The Harmony PE and price/book are crazy too.

Sibanye have union wage negotiations for their South African gold mining operations coming up. The South African mining unions are notoriously militant, and have seemingly set aside their differences (they used to hate each other) to negotiate as one. The last round of negotiations three years ago wasn’t exactly harmonious. Harmony agreed a 20% rise over three years a few weeks ago. Would expect Sibanye to have to pay something similar or risk strikes.

Also, Sibanye’s stock price due to their huge platinum operations, tends to oscillate wildly with times when it acts as a cyclical industrial stock and others where it follows other gold miners. It’s a tough one to trade.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Can the mighty Panther last that long though? 

I bought a load more of the Mighty Panther earlier this week so I really hope so  

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

I was looking at this the other day.  I couldn't believe the Sibanye PE.  It's been one of my best performers and the divs this year have been cracking.

I know the whole sector has taken a beating recently, but are the S. Africa-based guys getting hit harder?  The Harmony PE and price/book are crazy too.

we're long KGC from about $3 bottom ladder to $4.30 top ladder from when @DurhamBorn was steering the basement faithful towards them oct/Nov 2018.Bottom laddered of HMY remains at $1.60 from that time too.

We've tkane profits in Spet last year-sold Sib/GFI Anglogold which had multibagged alogn with a few others Sept 20 but have since reinvested that in some of the other horses int he race eg YAmana/B2G/Oceana.

When you game through what's coming-then I'm totally with Luke Gromen thesis that gold could go back to fulfilling it's mutli millenial role as final payment-these shares all have a lot of upside.

Coma scores for my spray n pray operations below.All based on full year reuslts.Share price moves would obviously change the rating but these are a snapshot of the my opinion of the value at the time.17 and above is what I call a buy but we own a good few that have lowish scores for non financial reasons.The FCF coming off some of these is something to behold.Jsut wait till the banks are offering them cheap moeny to dig.......

Company	Share price	Date	Chart	Inc	BS	CF	Sector	SCS
Agnico	USD 60.61	23/02/21	1	2	4	2	4	13
Alamos	USD 7.55	03/03/21	3	3	5	3	4	18
Anglogold	USD 20.89	23/02/21	3	4	3	4	4	18
B2Gold	USD 4.55	03/03/21	2	5	5	5	4	21
Barrick	USD 18.67	01/03/21	3	3	4	4	4	18
Buenaventura	USD 10.65	16/04/21	4	1	4	2	4	15
Centamin	GBP 1.13	16/04/21	3	4	5	5	4	21
Centerra	CAD11.88	03/03/21	2	5	5	5	4	21
Eldorado	USD 11.01	03/03/21	3	3	5	5	4	20
FNV	USD 136.52	16/03/21	1	2	5	2	4	14
Freeport	USD 37.55	23/02/21	1	2	2	2	4	11
Fresnillo	GBP 9.42	03/03/21	3	3	4	3	4	17
Gold fields	USD 8.69	23/02/21	2	4	3	3	4	16
Gold resource	USD 2.69	01/03/21	4	1	5	3	4	17
Harmony	USD 3.49	10/08/21	4	1	3	2	4	14
Hochschild	GBP 2.13	01/03/21	4	2	3	4	4	17
IAM gold	USD 3.02	01/03/21	3	2	4	2	4	15
Kinross	USD 6.73	23/02/21	3	5	4	5	4	21
Kirkland	USD 33.24	01/03/21	2	3	5	3	4	17
New gold	USD 1.65	01/03/21	4	1	2	1	4	12
Newcrest	USD 20.04	23/02/21	3	3	4	3	4	17
Newmont	USD 54.52	01/03/21	1	3	4	4	4	16
Oceana	CAD 1.78	01/03/21	4	1	4	1	4	14
Osisko Gold Royalty	USD 9.80	01/03/21	3	2	4	1	4	14
Pan African	GBP 00.184	23/02/21	2	5	3	3	4	17
Pan American	USD 32.18	01/03/21	1	3	5	3	4	16
Petropavlosk	GBP0.2596	16/03/21	3	2	3	1	4	13
Polymetal	GBP 14.57	05/03/21	2	4	3	3	4	16
Royal Gold	USD 103.29	01/03/21	1	2	5	2	4	14
Sandstorm	USD 6.07	01/03/21	3	2	5	3	4	17
Sibanye	USD 18.91	01/03/21	1	2	3	4	4	14
SSR	USD 13.87	01/03/21	3	3	4	3	4	17
Wesdome	CAD 9.85	16/03/21	2	2	5	1	4	14
Wheaton	USD 42.03	16/03/21	1	2	5	5	4	17
Yamana	USD 4.015	01/03/21	4	3	3	4	4	18
Silvercrest
First Majestic	UD 17.28	03/03/21	1	2	4	2	4	13
Endeavour Silver	CAD 7.94	03/03/21	1	2	5	2	4	14
Fortuna Silver	CAD 9.33	03/03/21	1
Mag Silver	USD 18.71	03/03/21	1					1
Silvercorp	USD 5.69	03/03/21	2	3	4	3	4	16

[Democorruptcy]

13 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I have most of my 'clear the mortgage' silver in Sprotts fully backed fund in my ISA. Should do the trick 

Where are you holding that?

HL have not allowed in an ISA for PSLV.U (or CEF.U)

[sancho panza]

On another matter,Rockhopper letting the side down.I'm biased as am long this sector,but this feels like insto money hitting these shares.

I'm not a great TA analyst by any stretch and would defer to the likes of @Harley any time,but I do beleive that trend channels run for a period of time before they break and reset.Seen it time and again.But you can only really see them historically.Look at the run down in Shell last year.Incredible.

Not syaing there won't be a pull back-there will- but the game for the oilies has been moved up to the first team pitch.

[belfastchild]

51 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

There's also the fall out from furlough ending to come

 

Some of this is starting to play out already but not in the way most people think.
Ive heard anecdotals from three different parts of the country and 3 different industries, that the people who worked through the entire time are sick to fucking death of the whinging of those returning after furlough.
Only anecdotal but the returning furlough people are complaining about how much they have to work and how unfair it is and in one case HR has been called 4 times in a week regarding threats made to 2 individuals (or could just be microaggressions!). Even the HR folk are giving them short shrift at this stage.

I know a lot of this was also pent up feelings about people knocking their ballix in keeping certain places going only to see furloughed people posting on social media from their hot tubs or drunk before noon.

I dont think all that spend has been factored into the 'recovery' in that some amount of shite was bought with furlough/self employed all sorts of stuff. Even saw a self employed hairdresser get the payment, go out and use it as downpayment for a shiny merc on pcp ffs. Nobody was going anywhere!

 

I dont know if Ive mentioned it before on here but did various things related to tourism this summer, mostly in England and in open conversation people were giving off about furloughees but more vociferously about benefit scroungers. Is this new? Ive only ever heard it in conversations with friends or 1-1s with people, it was a new thing to hear it out in the open in front of strangers. Dont know if its the social media echo chamber working but was very noticeable in places or maybe its just reinforcement once Id heard it once.

Im also seeing a fair few people in my social circle starting to unravel. I remember hearing from a UK IT company that their normal sickness absentee rate is around 7%. In June it passed 30% with most of the new stuff being people not coping with working from home any more. Not surprising if young people are cooped up in HMOs or young familes with kids all day or not enough space to have a dedicated office and sitting at the kitchen table or on their beds ffs!

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-boe/markets-could-face-sharp-correction-bank-of-england-warns-idUSL9N2PO009

 

"LONDON, Oct 8 (Reuters) - The historically high value of financial assets could correct sharply if investors reassess the prospects for recovery from COVID-19, with signs of increased risk-taking at investment banks, the Bank of England said on Friday."

 

It's like they want a crash!!!

 

[sancho panza]

19 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Sibanye have union wage negotiations for their South African gold mining operations coming up. The South African mining unions are notoriously militant, and have seemingly set aside their differences (they used to hate each other) to negotiate as one. The last round of negotiations three years ago wasn’t exactly harmonious. Harmony agreed a 20% rise over three years a few weeks ago. Would expect Sibanye to have to pay something similar or risk strikes.

Also, Sibanye’s stock price due to their huge platinum operations, tends to oscillate wildly with times when it acts as a cyclical industrial stock and others where it follows other gold miners. It’s a tough one to trade.

We've derisked our goldies holdings in terms of SA-Mrs P is a Saffer and tells me all about it-and it says alot that Anglogold hived off their SA ops a year or two back.I think even Goldfields have too iirc.DB has said before that Harmony is quite astute how it handles things,think you have to be.kudos to @DurhamBorn as he put us into Sib as well Nov 18

The trade that I think none of us made was Implats at a $1-20.We talked about it at the time.........it's been $18 since.