Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

a new Dacia Sandero

don't do it dude, they handle like a shit sandwich....

come on buy that old Pug and keep it going! The dosbods massive is a rooting for ya 

[DurhamBorn]

Iv just been going through the incumbent telcos regulations etc across Europe and i think between 60% and 75% of their turnover is CPI or higher linked.These mostly own the networks others use etc and although there is competition,for instance here in the UK Virgin/Telefonica building a network to compete with BT,i dont think that matters.

Brokers with sell advice etc see the competition and see that as certain to reduce prices and turnover.I dont agree.I think everyone is missing just how potent inflation in when you have prices linked to it.I also think two or three networks will simply pretend to compete ,but will actually price set from the incumbent and all make more,just like tobacco do.

I also think the incumbents can roll out cheaper than they thought when the regs were put in place,because new tech is allowing them to use a lot more of their present ducting,voiding need for planning etc and a lot of digging.

https://www.prysmiangroup.com/sites/default/files/business_markets/markets/downloads/datasheets/Overblowing-of-Mini-Cables-into-a-reduced-diameter-Sub-duct.pdf

The above supply BT,(Italian company) and they have tied in 3 year supply contracts,new entrants would struggle to get supplied etc.

I think the incumbents all look like they will see big free cash increases mid cycle once the inflation meets falling Capex.

[nirvana]

hmmmm somebody has disengaged the Gold 1780 tractor beam lol

<rushes to buy some Gold stonks>

[nirvana]

woo have we had this news? anyone planning to retire to Russia?

 

[RJT1979]

This Donald Trump dwac thing could be the black Swan if faangs fall off the back of it.

[nirvana]

I still maintain Gold is a terribly manipulated market, shorts will be incoming at 1807 and 1832.....

oops it's 1807 now I'd best be off lol

[JMD]

3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

I recall @JMD asking about left-field ideas for inflation-loving asset classes.

Everyone knows about classic cars (which have arguably been in a bubble for quite a few years now). But I would never have suggested plain old second-hand.

More by accident of circumstance than design, I'm long second-hand vehicles in the 5 to 20 year old range (something like 10% "allocation" if you count it like that), and I never expected them to be anything other than a permanent drag on my finances (although they do get *really* well looked after).

So I saw this article and a mischievous thought crossed my mind ... could my small accidental fleet out-perform the share that shall not be named? Bit early to say TBH, looks like it's mainly newer models for now. But maybe I should start tracking it, for "fun"

https://www.motortradenews.com/news/research-highlights-soaring-second-hand-car-prices/

Research highlights soaring second-hand car prices

SECOND-HAND prices of Britain’s most popular cars have risen by up to 57% in two year^], according to new analysis by AA Cars.

The AA’s used car website reported that demand for some models is so strong that they are even appreciating with age. For example a three year-old Mini Hatch now costs 57% more than a model of the same age cost in 2019. But a five year-old model currently costs 15% more than a three year-old car did in 2019, meaning it has gained in value despite getting two years older.

The analysis, of the 30 most searched for cars on the AA Cars platform, compared prices of three, four and five year-old models in August 2019 and August 2021.

The most popular car of all, the Ford Fiesta, saw the average of three to five year old models jump by nearly a third (31%) to £9,770 between 2019 and 2021.

That is interesting Jamtomorrow. I bet it'd work as an investment, so long as you have the mechanical skills and the storage to properly look after the vehicles. Sounds like you have both those elements sorted? You mention 'normal type' cars such as the Mini, i.e. not the classic/vintage ones. So i guess the other big consideration is what to actually buy (and hold/store, and also to maintain in this case!) - so which type of car will be in 'biggest' demand in say 5-20 years time, got to be economical, maintainable, plus maybe an element of exclusivity to help set it apart? If i can be nosy, which makes of car are you thinking of?                                               

                     Most of my own portfolio is in 'safe' divi paying next-cycle inflation stocks, as per the thread. And you are correct in saying i look for left-field inflation loving asset classes. Part of my strategy is to allocate 10%+ to speculative long-term holds. However, i am risk averse, so attempt to derisk things as soon as i'm able by taking profits if/when the asset increases, ultimately leaving the remainder in as a 'free ride', so that even if it goes to zero i don't lose. I think for crypto and for the gold/silver junior miners, this has been easy to achieve, but tbh mostly luck as i claim no special skills.                                                                     Investment commentators talk often about 'asymmetric trades', and i think a small part of any portfolio set aside to speculation is potentially a powerful strategy, especially if selecting for next cycle 'type themes' as discussed frequently on here. Obviously none of this is meant as advise as much crucially depends on the investors risk/reward profile... But i'd like to add also that 'risk/reward' needn't be purely financial - i mean Jamtomorrow i'm sure that your car investment idea plus the work involved gives you much enjoyment, development/learning, and maybe you are passing on your skills as a teacher/mentor - all these things are unquantifiable of course but extremely valuable endeavors... anyway, just wanted to 'put that out there'.    

[nirvana]

6 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

This Donald Trump dwac thing could be the black Swan if faangs fall off the back of it.

interesting but why do you think it has legs?

[RJT1979]

It's up another 100pc. Facebook twitter doen 5pc ish

[Harley]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

You can make 0.65% in a day at the moment picking any old crappy share.

FFS, my solar/wind holdings make over 4% yield.  But then 0.65% is probably correct by the time the public sector and their cronies have taken their cut!  OK, my yield probably includes some grants, but fine, I paid for them in taxes!

[nirvana]

10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

They'll switch long soon enough and it'll go the other way.

Maybe but again you're crystal ball gazing.....for the time being it is what it is.......either you believe the charts OR you don't, ya?

anyway, need to get back to the tea leaves, bon courage mon ami!

Soz I'm back I've lauched my bogies now lol

to quantify! Macro gazers use crystal balls to try and 'see the future'......that's fine roadmaps are good..

Micro investors or mad bastard traders use charts to predict short term price movements......look left to be right  

edit again: actually thinking about it I think the macro POV is in the charts too but I am fascinated by folks like Uncle Dave lol

[HousePriceMania]

37 minutes ago, nirvana said:

woo have we had this news? anyone planning to retire to Russia?

 

This is where UK rates should be !!!!

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

This is where UK rates should be !!!!

whatever.....shoulda, woulda, coulda shouldn't have a place in your 'investing arsenal'....

To be moon BRO, to the moon!!!! 

[nirvana]

SILVER BREAKOUT WOOHOO!!!

[jamtomorrow]

22 minutes ago, JMD said:

That is interesting Jamtomorrow. I bet it'd work as an investment, so long as you have the mechanical skills and the storage to properly look after the vehicles. Sounds like you have both those elements sorted? You mention 'normal type' cars such as the Mini, i.e. not the classic/vintage ones. So i guess the other big consideration is what to actually buy (and hold/store, and also to maintain in this case!) - so which type of car will be in 'biggest' demand in say 5-20 years time, got to be economical, maintainable, plus maybe an element of exclusivity to help set it apart? If i can be nosy, which makes of car are you thinking of?                                               

                     Most of my own portfolio is in 'safe' divi paying next-cycle inflation stocks, as per the thread. And you are correct in saying i look for left-field inflation loving asset classes. Part of my strategy is to allocate 10%+ to speculative long-term holds. However, i am risk averse, so attempt to derisk things as soon as i'm able by taking profits if/when the asset increases, ultimately leaving the remainder in as a 'free ride', so that even if it goes to zero i don't lose. I think for crypto and for the gold/silver junior miners, this has been easy to achieve, but tbh mostly luck as i claim no special skills.                                                                     Investment commentators talk often about 'asymmetric trades', and i think a small part of any portfolio set aside to speculation is potentially a powerful strategy, especially if selecting for next cycle 'type themes' as discussed frequently on here. Obviously none of this is meant as advise as much crucially depends on the investors risk/reward profile... But i'd like to add also that 'risk/reward' needn't be purely financial - i mean Jamtomorrow i'm sure that your car investment idea plus the work involved gives you much enjoyment, development/learning, and maybe you are passing on your skills as a teacher/mentor - all these things are unquantifiable of course but extremely valuable endeavors... anyway, just wanted to 'put that out there'.    

That's exactly how it is. They're not just "assets", but also a lifelong opportunity to learn how to be a more self-sufficient with mechanicals and maintenance.

If DB's reading of the reinflation is anything to go by, the niche service specialisms required to keep complex mechanical systems going will dwindle, so if you want to keep running your own vehicle you're either going to need to learn to DIY, or get something "solid state" (i.e. an EV) that won't need the same level of attention (SEEDs is saying much the same, but from a different analysis perspective ... which is itself interesting).

The "fleet" is mostly diesels, mixture of common rail and pumpe deuse. Would love to swap one for a normally-aspirated at some point, turbos are a bit of a fragile liability for my liking. One small hiccup in the oil feed and that's it, shits the bed and the engine's eaten it before you can blink.

[nirvana]

actually I've had another thought re macro lol

the market is in 'uncharted territory'.........we've never had this in the history of mankind ever......which is why you should all stop believing the shysters on youtube, twatter etc.....they are true crystal ball gazers.......

the only valid macro POV is that money causes inflation and the cunts in the banks will print forever and ever......

amen lol

[Agent ZigZag]

7 minutes ago, nirvana said:

the only valid macro POV is that money causes inflation

I agree. In 2008 the money went to the banks that pushed it onto housing. This time 2020 they printed again to bail out the system (with Covid as the cover excuse in my opinion) and gave it to governments who are/were in need of bailing out. So far to date many governments have wasted a lot of this liquidity. For me the communion of this group is to establish where that liquidity is likely to go causing asset inflation. So far I would suggest that the collective mind set is winning although caution is still needed.

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

For me the communion of this group is to establish where that liquidity is likely to go causing asset inflation. So far I would suggest that the collective mind set is winning although caution is still needed.

exactamundo! which brings to mind that other old adage - FOLLOW THE MONEY!

the only problem for an excitable short termist cunt like me is

a) is it a breakout or b) it is a swing? I think I've got a good strategy which again goes back to the likes of Buffet....

JUST BUY THE FUCKING DIP!!!!

Muppet out 

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

No, I'm not. It's 'crystal' clear from COT reports what they do, which is mostly momentum chasing. It's really not difficult to see.

as you still talking about Gold? it's shit cos it's range bound most of the time.........which gets back to why it's a complete shite investment vehicle compared to stonks and crypto....

Anyway I've thought too much today 

[nirvana]

Just now, Cattle Prod said:

Think harder, you're talking through your hole. Unless you're short term trading that is. Not interested. 

 

yes short term mainly but one of the best investors on the planet happens to agree, wey hey!!!!

 

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Will this allow you to short Bitcoin now I wonder? If it does, its gonna be a ride up and down? Money to be made and lost.

you can short Bitcoin using CFDs.....the price is quite easy to predict  but the spreads are fukkin horrendous

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

I recall @JMD asking about left-field ideas for inflation-loving asset classes.

Everyone knows about classic cars (which have arguably been in a bubble for quite a few years now). But I would never have suggested plain old second-hand.

More by accident of circumstance than design, I'm long second-hand vehicles in the 5 to 20 year old range (something like 10% "allocation" if you count it like that), and I never expected them to be anything other than a permanent drag on my finances (although they do get *really* well looked after).

So I saw this article and a mischievous thought crossed my mind ... could my small accidental fleet out-perform the share that shall not be named? Bit early to say TBH, looks like it's mainly newer models for now. But maybe I should start tracking it, for "fun"

https://www.motortradenews.com/news/research-highlights-soaring-second-hand-car-prices/

Research highlights soaring second-hand car prices

SECOND-HAND prices of Britain’s most popular cars have risen by up to 57% in two year^], according to new analysis by AA Cars.

The AA’s used car website reported that demand for some models is so strong that they are even appreciating with age. For example a three year-old Mini Hatch now costs 57% more than a model of the same age cost in 2019. But a five year-old model currently costs 15% more than a three year-old car did in 2019, meaning it has gained in value despite getting two years older.

The analysis, of the 30 most searched for cars on the AA Cars platform, compared prices of three, four and five year-old models in August 2019 and August 2021.

The most popular car of all, the Ford Fiesta, saw the average of three to five year old models jump by nearly a third (31%) to £9,770 between 2019 and 2021.

Well students have got to have something to spend their (our) student loans on now they are all Woke teetoatallers! :-)

[Starsend]

24 minutes ago, nirvana said:

yes short term mainly but one of the best investors on the planet happens to agree, wey hey!!!!

 

You're missing the point; gold is insurance.

Yes the last cycle has been spectacular for tech stocks, certainly not all stocks. If I'd known a bubble was coming in tech stocks (again) I'd have sold my gold, stuck it in tech stocks, sold the whole lot now and moved back to gold - but unfortunately nobody really knows what's coming for sure (apart from db )

What I am fairly certain of though:

1. The gold I bought 20 years ago has gone up six fold in price, not too shabby.

2. Tech stocks will not be a great investment going forwards because huge future profits which may not be realised are already priced in.

3. A big crash in tech stocks is likely.

4. The next cycle will favour something else.

5. Didn't know this until fairly recently but gold and stocks tend to take it in turns to outperform. The last cycle was stocks turn, the next more likely gold - Daniel Amerman's work.

6. Crypto. Nobody knows due to no history. Anybody who says they do know is talking bollocks. Could go to the moon or go to zero.

7. The monetary system is in serious trouble. There is not a small chance that it crashes and burns, stocks crash with it, gold/silver go to the moon.

 

[Castlevania]

38 minutes ago, nirvana said:

as you still talking about Gold? it's shit cos it's range bound most of the time.........which gets back to why it's a complete shite investment vehicle compared to stonks and crypto....

Anyway I've thought too much today 

Trade the range. Which is good until the tractor beam fails.

[Starsend]

45 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Zero withholding tax on Poly, received divs for a while now, full payment. Unless Putin lets it slide for me maybe?

Well that's a brucey bonus! I thought Russian stocks had 15% witholding tax but makes Poly's divi even juicer if there isn't.

I'll have a look at my divs and work out what I've received. Can't remember if I hold it in my ISA or my SIPP.